Beilein, Bball, & Moving Parts
Hearing reports on so many prospects for the Basketball Team is dizzying. That means that with the current commitments of Wilson and Bajema, the class is technically full. I thought Brazdeikis and Poole were gone for good, but after the banquet tonight, it isn't as clear. Unless they're just leaving the door open a crack for the media. So I'm trying to figure this out.
Does Michigan need to keep a slot open for Brazdeikis and Poole until they formally declare for the NBA, as did Charles Matthews today? Or maybe Beilein already knows they are gone, and can fill the spots? Could Beilein accept a commitment or two and tell Brazdeikis or Poole or both, sorry, your spot is no longer available, good luck in the draft? Or do they have to decide at that point to reneg on a commitment? I don't see how you can do that, but this new environment makes it so difficult.
Regarding others, here are the four we have been hearing about:
- Pierce, grad transfer from William and Mary
- Wagner, for Berlin Alba
- Hyland, new top 50 guy out of Delaware
- Quinones, top 100 guy out of IMG in Bradenton
I'm assuming, based on the 3 coaches and others, they have ranked the 4 prospects. Do they have to slow play them until Brazdeikis and Poole decide? Are there any of them who they allow to commit on the spot? Are there any who they tell, we don't have a spot for you yet? I'm assuming Beilein's visit rule (come for a campus visit before giving out an offer) doesn't apply for Wagner. What happens if Hyland wants to commit on the spot after a visit and an offer? Or Quinones?
IIRC, Michigan held out too long for a player, and ended up losing the one kid (to MSU?) and a second kid who wasn't going to wait any longer. Is there a point at which Beilein says to any or all of the six kids, "I'd love to let you take as long as you want, but there is someone else who wants to commit now . . . we are offering you the spot first. If you don't feel you want to commit, we will offer it to one of the other prospects."
Obviously, all these questions are hypothetical and somewhat rhetorical, and I'm not going to get many answers. Let's just say, I don't know how Beilein and the team are keeping all of this together.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:52 PM ^
what he said
April 17th, 2019 at 11:51 PM ^
I did not expect to hear that from Iggy. Not getting my hopes up, but I’ll just say if he did come back next year I would less surprised than I was this morning. Still would bamboozle me if he did return.
What did Iggy say? I haven't been able to find an article online with any quotes.
"I’m talking to more of my coaches right now, talking to my agent, my family. There’s definitely a process behind this.
"There’s still a lot of time. We’ve got the (draft) combine still to go and there’s a lot of different variables that will play into it. I have not made a decision yet.”
Also, the draft combine is May 15-19, so that's a long ways off (for a fan to wait).
April 18th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
That's good - it seems like that, with the new rules, declaring for the draft will be the new normal. So, it won't be as shocking and definitive when a young player declares early. Unlike the old days, there's a much higher likelihood they'll come back - they're allowed to test the waters much longer and deeper now.
I think Iggy and Poole are good players but not good enough for the NBA. Iggy needs to learn to become a more sophisticated scorer and passer and Poole needs to improve his defense and shooting. But, I think those guys can definitely do that and get better next year. They have a ton of potential. And I know Brian and mgoblog are always like - 'they're getting old/past their window and won't see a lot of improvement after this' but I think we should look at guys like Walton, Duncan and Rakhman who kept improving late into their senior seasons.
Michigan will miss Matthews' phenomenal defense but the missing piece this year was a lights-out shooter (and to a lesser extent a clever shot-creator) and hopefully they can get that in Franz or one of the late recruits/transfers.
April 17th, 2019 at 11:52 PM ^
This is college b-ball in 2019. Every college program has to deal with this stuff. Coach B has got it covered.
To address some of your questions more specifically, Coach B is going to get the best 2 available players ASAP from the 4 you mentioned if he can. If Iggy and/or Poole surprises us by returning and one or both slots are already filled, you can probably anticipate a firm handshake and transfer or two (highly unlikely scenario where two need to transfer given timing, draft probabilities, etc).
Yeah, Austin Davis and Eli Brooks are probably the most nervous dudes on campus right now.
Why should they be nervous? No one can take their scholarships away. Eli has two years left and is the best PG on the team after Z.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
Nunez might be a more likely transfer candidate at this point than Brooks who should be an important part of the rotation going forward.
Of course we don't know what is going on behind the scenes and we don't know what the coaches told each player in their exit interviews and it is still a fluid situation, but that is my guess based on playing time and whatever reporting is out there.
But, a lot of transfer decisions are based on what kids hear in those meetings and what their advisers tell them when they return home from school so we may not know more on transfers until weeks from now.
I sure hope Eli Brooks doesn't leave. I'm expecting him as the starting shooting guard next year assuming Poole doesn't come back. He had a rough stretch where he lost confidence this year but really came on at the end of the year. I think with consistent minutes he will be a good player. Worst case, he plays excellent defense and doesn't turn the ball over.
I have to say that I was also impressed with him down the stretch. There were actually stretches of time during both the BIG tournament and in the NCAA tournament when I found myself saying some variation of "put Brooks in" or actually "get the ball to Brooks" and was like wait, wut?
April 18th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
YEah I thought he was playing well at the beginning of the year. But he disappeared for a while during a long, dry stretch in the middle of the season in which it seemed like he was flat-out afraid to shoot or put his head down and take it to the rack. I'm glad he bounced back and played well down the stretch.
Somehow, "firm handshake" is my favorite and least favorite sports term simultaneously.
April 18th, 2019 at 12:46 AM ^
If Wagner wants to come, you take him and figure things out later. With the speed at which things are moving with Hyland, I'd imagine he'd be a take regardless of what Iggy and Poole do (and I'd only put so much stock into remarks made at a team function, which are notorious for coaches and players saying things that don't hold up). In any case, it will work itself out, as there are some fairly obvious playing time transfers that wouldn't take much encouraging to make happen.
April 19th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
I agree that Franz and Hyland seem like the two for sure takes at this point with Pierce and Lester not far behind.
While the coaches don’t have 100% accurate information on players’ draft decisions, they are probably close to 98% sure of which spots will/won’t be available - unlike us.
I feel all 3 are gone and not coming back so Beilein has to find 2 more.
Charles Matthews is leaving Michigan to begin his professional career, wherever that may be. This was the plan since the day he announced his return last year.
Pierce should be an easy one...that could be an either/or situation.
Grad transfers aren't coming if they aren't starting. It's why we didn't get that kid that went to Texas Tech. There was no guarantee he was starting over Poole and Zavier was named team MVP.
So if Poole comes back, Pierce likely isn't an option.
For the freshman, you obviously have more that plays into it.
I personally think Iggy and Poole come back. Neither will be drafted and both could improve their stock (where Matthews likely would have not).
Beilein is focusing this summer on guys who can get and make their own shot...that suits both players perfectly. For Poole it's about whether or not he can get over the fanbase treating him like crap too often.
This feels exactly like the Gentry situation (why do we do this, people?!) - only problem is the NBA doesn't have a 7 round draft. Gentry will be drafted...Poole will not.
Iggy needs another year but it was clear from day 1 that in his head he was a 1one-and-done. For that reason it's going to be a tough pill to swallow to return, but it's the right and smart move.
Both should give it one more year and then leave...nothing is going to change from next year to 2021, so by that time they'll be whoever they're going to be...it'll be time.
That said, I still would like to see Davis find a place where he can get 20+ minutes. That kid needs to be PLAYING and that's not going (ever) happen at Michigan. However he could get real minutes in the MAC.
Brooks, he frustrates me but he provides depth and you're not going to get a backup PG that isn't a Simmons type...which is Brooks.
In the end, let's say we have 2 additional spots...who do we take knowing Iggy is gone but Poole comes back? Hypothetically speaking.
I think your read on this is off.
I understand that NBA GMs were surveyed about various players including Poole. 100% of them said he would be taken in the draft. Some had him going in the first round but not the lottery. He physically projects to the NBA so he will be drafted.
Iggy is harder to predict but he will be 21 in January, so he is physically mature. That means there is less projection that NBA GMs will need to do. I would like to see him come back but if he gets invited to the Draft Combine on May 15 then that means he's likely to stay in until the draft on June 20. Under the new rules, if he is invited to the combine but isn't drafted he can return to school. That is a long time for Beilein to wait to fill that spot.
Regarding Austin Davis, he has repeatedly said that he has no plans to transfer and wants his Michigan degree. He is only a junior. If he transferred to a D1 without graduating first he would have to sit out a year. Why would a kid who wants a Michigan degree transfer if he couldn't play elsewhere anyway. I suspect he will finish his degree next year and take a Grad Transfer somewhere for his last year.
Brooks is only a sophomore so transferring would require him to sit out. With our current roster he is likely to get lots of minutes at the two next year since he has more experience than anyone else on the team. We can hope the Nunez experiences the sophomore bump and Cole Bajema is able to play the 2 but I can't imagine Beilein would want to enter the season without a veteran option.
It seems Michigan needs to recruit with the certainty of one spot and the likelihood of two. The calendar is tight. Beilein visits Franz next week. Pierce visits the weekend of the 27th but has a visit to North Carolina after that, so we probably have three weeks before his decision. I suspect we will have pretty good idea what our roster will look like in one month. My guess is Poole and Iggy are gone and we will add Franz Wagner plus either Pierce or Bones.
Under the new rules, if he is invited to the combine but isn't drafted he can return to school. That is a long time for Beilein to wait to fill that spot.
I thought that too but evidently that is not the case yet as this provision needs to be approved by the NBPA. This is according to Dylan at UMHoops:
That rule change isn’t in effect this year. The NCAA approved it but it is dependent on some NBPA rule changes. When it goes into effect, it will only be for players who are invited to the combine.
After reading all this, I know this is college basketball now days but there’s a part of me that now feels like if Iggy & Poole say they are testing the waters, well then go. Go & be done with it so M basketball can move on. It gets a little tiresome.
Lol I'm so sorry that these major life changing decisions for these 20 years olds are so tiresome on you.
I kind of agree with him but not in the way it came out. Coaches need to make important roster decisions based on a player staying or leaving. I would hope that both Iggy and Poole and their families understand that and kind of provide the coach with real-time "summaries" of how they are feeling and leaning during the process. It would be really unfortunate if Beilein had to hold off on the full court press of other prospects and be up shits creek 60 days from now.
April 18th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
That is the NBA's fault for having a setup that is poorly timed and allows for potential friction between players on the fence and their college teams. The players should absolutely take as much time to collect the information they need to make the final decision that is right for them, and we as fans shouldn't begrudge them for doing so, no matter how inconvenient it might be for the program
April 18th, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^
You are clearly a stand-up citizen with very serious foundational concerns regarding what is in the best interest of these fine scholar-athletes and upstanding young-men.
/straightens tie and stands very upright.
Well one sure thing is that it's a conundrum.
It also sounds like Beilein will be traveling to Germany next week to visit Franz. I don't have a subscription but Josh Henschke has a VIP article up on 247.
Could Franz stay with Alba another year & be part of the 2020 class?
April 18th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
Yes, I think that would be possible, but not probable. My guess it's either Michigan or NBA draft.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
IT'S HAPPENING!
I'm not following all this too closely but I've heard UM is competing against $$$$ schools for the Quinones kid so that's going to be a tough pull. But he does have a visit scheduled so there's that.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
Maryland, Memphis, and LSU to be exact (and also IU but I don't think they're heavy into the $$$ game).
Supposedly Maryland was annoyed that Quinones was taking his time. My heart breaks for Turgeon and his dirtbag assistants.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
Poole is 100% gone. Iggy is 75% gone.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
Don't you think its more like 101% and 74.85%? I think your off.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
im 500% confident in my numbers
It's difficult to argue with that logic.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
Who's to say?
I have a lot of questions as well, but the thing eating at me the most through all of this is how the heck do you pronounce Bajema? It can be dizzying trying to get through all the different pronunciations to get to the truth.
If it's like my cousins it is pronounced: Badge-eh-ma with the emphasis on the Badge.
"Coal".
Maybe or maybe not.