Balas: After NCAA meetings, Michigan "99% sure" it won't face punishment this season
Chris Balas ($) posted an update based on conversations with his sources at Michigan about yesterday's discussions with the NCAA. As always, since this is paywalled, subscribe to On3 for the full article. But based on his comments and those from Isaiah Hole, who has spoken to dozens of people inside and outside of Michigan about this story, it appears that:
- Overall, Michigan feels good about the conversations that have taken place, and feels "99 percent sure" that neither Michigan nor Harbaugh will face sanctions this year, because of the "rogue staffer" facts to date.
- Michigan isn't using the "grey areas" defense, believing that if Stalions hired others to something that is forbidden, that is a rules violation by Stalions.
- 1-2 more articles will drop with news unflattering to Michigan related to this story, but they won't alter the fundamental framework we are already familiar with.
All in all, it appears that we may nearing the bottom of the curve related to this story, and that once those last few stories drop, we will have a nearly complete picture of the facts (i.e., no Harbaugh involvement, no sanctions this year, probably slaps on the wrist in the end).
And then we can go back to focusing on winning the Game.
October 27th, 2023 at 5:36 PM ^
What about previous seasons? No vacating wins then I'd assume?
October 27th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
Hopefully the new B1G prez doesn't decide that he wants to play god and punish us on his own.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
I mean he is a TV exec put in a commissioners chair by other TV execs who has been on the job less than 6 months, I highly doubt he is gonna slay the golden goose here.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
If he wants to be sued into oblivion, sure. In that case, maybe conference realignment wouldn't be over with just yet.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
I'm guessing the B1G has wanted to wait and see what results from any NCAA findings before potentially stepping in, but the B1G has much more of an incentive not to step in than the NCAA. Or at least not step in to enact any punishment any time soon.
This year is likely the conference's best shot at a national title in a decade. You have two bona fide top-5 teams in Michigan and OSU, with no obvious SEC team that looks like its the shoe-in to win it all. There is no "Alabama in its prime," Georgia does not look like itself, and contenders from other conferences look very good, but beatable. You step in to kick Michigan out, the conference stands to lose a LOOOOOOOOOOOOT of money.
Money is what rules the roost with college football. Now and forever more. People can talk about their integrity, their ethics and "protecting the sanctity of the game." Apparently that's all the talk coming out of Columbus these days. But banning Michigan from postseason play (especially if it wins out) would put a massive, massive dent in the conference's bottom line.
Barring some massive bombshell report we haven't seen that directly implicates Harbaugh and other members of the staff as knowing participants in this scandal, I don't think the Big Ten is going to step in here. At least not to administer punishments of any real consequence.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^
I agree with this. The B1G shares all the post-season revenue. So the chance to once again have two teams in the CFP is a big deal.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
So when do we get to send private investigators to Columbus?
October 27th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Can an Mgo fund be started to do so?
October 27th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
Better yet, who gets to BE a private investigator?
I’d throw my hat in the ring. I might even wear a *gulp* red shirt if it means I can help take down Cryin Day…
October 27th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
This guy has some Michigan connections:
October 27th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
Anytime. It is now open season for colleges to hire firms to investigate other teams. I'm surprised it took this long, but that seems to have always been a seal that programs don't want to break open. Probably because everyone is skirting some rules somehow and somewhere, plus the coaching fraternity heavily depends on not really pissing your peers of otherwise you wont find a good job.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
Connor has time while he is on leave . . .
October 27th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
It feels like the last 1-2 articles that dropped that were supposed to be unflattering to Michigan were actually the opposite. We've got a) an outside firm got this info somehow and gave it to the NCAA, b) TCU knew about it, like tons of teams also do, and changed their signs, c) the FBI started investigating Weiss several months ago after Michigan immediately fired him. The next 1-2 articles that will be "unflattering" to Michigan will be interesting.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
Rumor is Stallions was personally at the MSU-CMU game (which was on Friday, Sept 1st). This has basically been confirmed and will be the next thing to come out.
Which whatever I guess. Not unsurprising.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
We could have turned over our whole playbook and call sheet to MSU and still would have won by 3-4 touchdowns. If Stallions was acting alone, then who really cares?
October 27th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
Part B is the thing that everyone seems to be willfully ignoring. If everybody knows about it and can mitigate it or even use it to their advantage, then it is yet another nothingburger. If we get hammered for no reason (again), then I say complete the heel turn, stop being passive, and see what happens when we stop trying to be nice.
October 29th, 2023 at 4:27 AM ^
The TCU article about messing with us made me laugh pretty good. It makes it sound like they just toyed with us over the signs and that's why they put up 50+. That has to be a load of crap. What was Michigan doing?
"Good work, Connor, we're totally ready for this play! Dang it, Connor, we just got totally burned! What are they doing now? OK, great! Crap, burned again! Connor? OK, cool! Dang it! Now what, Connor? Oh, great, we're totally stopping them this time! Arrrrgh! I just don't understand it! Every time I think we've got the sign, and they just pull it away! And I still keep falling for it anyways!"
October 27th, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
We will likely lose Harbaugh from this barring a miracle, either directly from the new bylaw that holds the hc responsible for everything or indirectly from him being fed up with the ncaa
otherwise I agree—season will end without sanctions, and sanctions down the line will be marginal
October 27th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
Username checks out
October 27th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
Are we reading the same thread?
October 27th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
The only way Harbaugh leaves Michigan is if it’s for the team with the number one pick so he can draft JJ. Barring that, he’s coaching Michigan till he retires.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
Your opinions are intriguing to me. How do I subscribe to your newsletter?
October 27th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
As a Bears fan, I think I can speak for most of us and say we'd gladly take a Jim/JJ combo.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
It is interesting that despite being labeled in the media as "the biggest cheaters of all time," we still don't take the easy route of delaying, obfuscating, and parsing rule language. It sounds like we are taking the high road, despite all of the mudslinging going on around us.
I hope it works out. It seems like the hardcore, deliberate cheaters are able to get away with it and the ones with a conscience get both barrels from the NCAA.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
So what happened to the reports yesterday saying that the meetings / interviews hadn't happened yet? Was that not true, did the meetings just happen today instead, etc.?
There was some scuttle in one of the other threads below that the meetings didn't happen because Harbaugh and his staff simply didn't show up and left Warde/Ono to do damage control for that. Which seems......extremely unlike Harbaugh to pull something like that, but it was from a poster who's been here a while.
Also, if the answer to my questions revolve around "Subscribe to their content to find out," that's completely fine!
October 27th, 2023 at 2:17 PM ^
My understanding is most coaches are on the recruiting trail this week so they couldn't do in-person meetings.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:17 PM ^
Since it's bye week, I believe it's been said the coaches are on the road recruiting. I don't think they left anyone behind, but simply stuck to existing travel plans.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
This is consistent and also not with what I just heard.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
typo?
October 27th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
The sign stealing isn't the issue we could be facing issues in season over.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
Please re-phrase. Sign stealing isn't the issue - what is the second part?
And I know you have referenced Weiss on previous threads... What is the relation of Weiss to this investigation?
October 27th, 2023 at 2:23 PM ^
He’s saying something else could result in a post season ban this season. No clue what.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^
I think he's talking about what popped up on an OSU rivals board. I saw it on 247 (which, sidenote... 247's buckeye site apparently lets them post stuff from other sites?). The person who brought it to 247 from Rivals' OSU board expressed some skepticism themselves, but it was an attempt to tie all of the Weiss stuff (whatever that actually is), with what we're seeing now and sign stealing. I don't want to get into trouble for bringing info from other boards, even though it was in the comments (still paywalled). Ultimately, it sounded a little far fetched to me along with being a way to point the origins of the investigation away from OSU, and whether this poster here has any inside info or not is up for debate, but it'll be interesting to see if his source, if he has one, can confirm or deny this rumor. It's popped up before and hasn't gained any traction.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
the lack of police involvement in Stalions just seems to suggest it has nothing to to with Weiss. I mean police has confirmed it has nothing to do with Weiss but still. Like police were raiding Weiss' house like a couple days after it was reported his unauthorized access. We haven't heard anything about police in this matter yet and it's been over a week. If computer crimes were committed it wouldn't be an NCAA issue.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
So... a clarification... it isn't really that Stalions would be a police matter, but rather for some reason the Weiss investigation lead to this investigation... That basically, this 3rd party hired by **SOMEONE** during the Weiss investigation felt it had a "duty" to notify the NCAA, which doesn't remotely sound like what the WaPo article laid out about this "firm". Again, I've just read this post, I don't know anything myself. It all sounded a little like OSU fan fiction, but who knows these days.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:31 PM ^
Nah that sounds too outlandish. UM hired a firm after Weiss I believe but there is no way in heck that firm would report anything like Stalions to the NCAA. Recordings of football sidelines are not a duty to report. And talk about never being ever hired again. You turned in your own client for obscure/unclear football scouting rule violations? Blacklisted forever. The only way it would ever be related is if the firm has some OSU fan who went to OSU boosters and said 'hey I can't say much, but hire a PI to look at UM's sign stealer'. I think its far more likely that it was known that he was doing this because he clearly wasn't too subtle about it and/or one of his scouts tipped off other teams. OSU then just decided they were going to go to a firm to gather info and do a publicity tour instead of just informing the NCAA to do the investigation.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:52 PM ^
Appreciate the clarification, just when I thought we could rest easy...
October 27th, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
Opposing fans are falling victim to the internet conspiracy hunter stuff where you think of a salacious conclusion and every snippet of anything out there fits into your predetermined conclusion. OSU fans are about 2 days away from holding a Signal Stealing Symposium with MyPillowGuy
October 27th, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
NM, my joke reply is so far from the original comment it's not worth it.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
What you are potentially suggesting is very different than both Hole and Balas. Unless your contact has different information than anyone they are talking to, I call bogus. Or maybe whoever your contact is he/she is butthurt over Jim not bending over to the NCAA.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
I am talking about that. Hoping I can get a read on that at some point today and will report back if I can confirm it or deny it.
My source and the insiders agree - it's early and no coaches interviewed yesterday. The difference is mine expanded with rationale. I won't rehash that here.
I am concerned because that alleged story hypothetically aligns well as a continuation of where my source left our talk. He couldn't say things. But like reading that made more of the talk I had this morning click into place. I can't describe it well, but things that he said that I didn't follow all of sudden make sense. So it's either really good fiction. Or not.
Balas and my source agree the stalions part likely won't result in in-season punishment. But my source said something to the effect of "because it's not the focus." It was a phone call and I don't have a transcript obviously but I thought he meant the no show was the focus rather than the stalions stuff, and now I'm not sure.
No idea who Balas' sources are or if they'd expand willingly beyond his line of questions. I am sorry I referred to the stalions stuff as sign stealing. It's a short hand way to talk about it.
The moral is my source said there were other things. and this fits. It hypothetically would be the practice film that bites us...even before the lack of cooperation or "that other stuff." I don't want to spread it any more than I have without verifying. I'd already edited some posts to reflect that before this thread. Sorry
Angeliques reporting is consistent with my sources general thread here too. She's just incomplete relatively. No evidence has been presented by the NCAA so as far as "Michigan sources" are concerned, so nothing has implicated anyone yet. That doesn't mean they are not concerned about the rest of it. It's a heck of a spin.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:05 PM ^
Either give us a reason to believe... whatever it is you're trying to say or stop saying anything.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
Believe what you want. They asked I answered. My source is working so I haven't confirmed anythungnas fake or fact. Just explaining why I'm nervous.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
What is confusing to me about your source is you are insinuating he agrees with the other Michigan insiders (Hole and Balas), they are basically saying the sky is not falling and everything is going to be ok, but your source is referring to another issue that could be harmful for Michigan. Why would Hole and Balas not know of this and why would their sources make it seem like things are going to be fine? It isn't adding up with your source, but this is coming from someone with no sources so there's that.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:11 PM ^
I didn't call my source and talk about Balas. I talked to him this morning to get an update and he told me what I summarized in the other thread. I don't know who Balas' source is. I haven't read Holes update. I don't know why their sources would say or not say anything. I can speculate that their sources didn't tell the whole truth. I.e. "the Weiss case is not related to the stalions case" is technically correct even if the Weiss case ended up resulting in the stalions case being discovered by a consulting IT firm. Both statements *could be* correct, just one is maybe short on relevant detail. "No coaches were interviewed" is correct, but my source added "because they no showed." Following?
I don't know what Balas knows or what he's sitting on. You should ask him that. I trust my source. He has a track record with me and that's good enough for me. You can make your own decision. He's still the only one I've seen so far that explained the coaching interview / non interview discrepancies. And so I posted it for a completely unrelated thread because I wasn't trying to break news or whatever and then this other thing came out this afternoon and it fit with what I was already hearing on JH skipping yesterday. So I said as much. If I confirm anything else, I'll say so. Sorry I don't have more. I've tried to answer questions as they come up this afternoon but I'm working today too
October 27th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
Is it Harbaugh skipping or was it the NCAA saying that they wanted to talk to lower staffers first before talking to him?
We don’t know you. We don’t know your source.
What you should do is email Brian/Seth so they can vet this source.
Right now this is a “Trust me, bro” situation. No offense to you. I just need some verification.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:35 PM ^
"we don't know you" I've been here longer than you have, by the way. I don't need your approval or affirmation
October 27th, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
If I had information I would first share it with Brian and Seth as well as source of information because citing unnamed sources is something anyone can do. There needs to be a form of vetting. Journalists risk their reputations by doing so with their names on reports.
You don’t risk anything by doing this.
October 27th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
Sopwith revealed his source to Brian and Seth. I agree that it gives credibility to the post.