Balas: After NCAA meetings, Michigan "99% sure" it won't face punishment this season
Chris Balas ($) posted an update based on conversations with his sources at Michigan about yesterday's discussions with the NCAA. As always, since this is paywalled, subscribe to On3 for the full article. But based on his comments and those from Isaiah Hole, who has spoken to dozens of people inside and outside of Michigan about this story, it appears that:
- Overall, Michigan feels good about the conversations that have taken place, and feels "99 percent sure" that neither Michigan nor Harbaugh will face sanctions this year, because of the "rogue staffer" facts to date.
- Michigan isn't using the "grey areas" defense, believing that if Stalions hired others to something that is forbidden, that is a rules violation by Stalions.
- 1-2 more articles will drop with news unflattering to Michigan related to this story, but they won't alter the fundamental framework we are already familiar with.
All in all, it appears that we may nearing the bottom of the curve related to this story, and that once those last few stories drop, we will have a nearly complete picture of the facts (i.e., no Harbaugh involvement, no sanctions this year, probably slaps on the wrist in the end).
And then we can go back to focusing on winning the Game.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
Fantastic work, Comrade, thanks for sharing! We, the oppressed football proletariat, deserve to crush the lazy, immoral bourgeois NCAA and lead the lumpenproletariat to true freedom...and a National Championship!!!
October 27th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
Yeah! What he said!
Bring out the sickles and hammers.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
Thanks Comrades! The Michigan counterrevolution has begun!
October 27th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure." ~Thomas Jefferson
October 27th, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
+1 Historical Context.
I use this quote often.. Hell I will give you +2.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
🎶 The International Wolverines of the World will be the human race! 🎶
October 27th, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
My favorite Ohio State trickery exposed!!!
October 27th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
OK so, 3B Day & OSU hire an outside firm to dig up dirt on UM Football & Coach. While a bad look, nothing (essentially) is un-earthed. In the meantime, the coaching staff frames this as opponents basically saying that the players aren't really that good and have been winning due to sign decoding ("cheating"). Isn't that it, in a nutshell?
If that's the case, then the Team doesn't need any Message Board Fodder to run roughshod over the remaining opponents and turn them all into paste.
Congrats Coach Just For Men, you just sank your season (and a few others, in the process).
October 27th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
Not this shit again. So help me, if this soap opera resurrects the WLA, we’re gonna have to take off from Mgoblog and nuke the site from orbit.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
Only way to be sure...
October 27th, 2023 at 3:04 PM ^
I remember the WLA. It was kind of funny at the time.
But then we lost A LOT of games after that. And that wasn't funny at all.
Here's hoping you and yours have a TruStage-free day, weekend, and remainder of the 'season'!
October 27th, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
Translation: Michigan fans would like to update their computer password to GOBLUE2023!
October 27th, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^
Yeah, I guess now would be a good time to make that change. Cuz...I haven't yet... obviously.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
the lazy, immoral bourgeois NCAA
As Steve Miller so masterfully wrote, and which should become our touchstone...
All you back room schemers, small trip dreamers
Better find something new to say
'Cause you're the same old story
It's the same old crime
And you got some heavy dues to pay.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:35 PM ^
The redistribution of the NCAA's wealth will consist of free cheeseburgers for all!
October 28th, 2023 at 6:27 AM ^
I miss the wla and blog culture from 15 years ago.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
Just a few things to tidy up. Who initiated this whirlwind? Recourse for false charges to include ostracizing those tarnishing the brand? Unleashing hell on opponents to blow off some steam.
That is a nice mix. Thanks Chris and proceed gentlemen.
October 27th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
Is this when we hunt down Jim Benedict Arnold Stapleton and then find out how OSU committed a federal offense in “investigating” Michigan?
October 27th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
No to the first part but might I suggest this. Ignominy.
Yes to the second part unless as a University you like repeats of the last 10 days.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
There are rumors that Michigan (Stalions) has practice footage from OSU. I have no idea if that is true or not. That rumor continues with the idea that OSU discovered the hack of their footage and hired the private investigators at that time. At least that is the story they will probably use if they are discovered to have hired the outside firm. In this scenario, the potentially damaging information is that Michigan (Stalions) had OSU's practice footage. If that is the bombshell, then this theory may be correct.
I think Stapleton is still a possibility though - I would just have him lower than OSU.
I have no idea what is or isn't true with this entire fiasco. Stalions could write a really wild memoir one day.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
Who knows and I'm sure we'll find out. But Sopwith has been pretty on point with this what insider knowledge he seems to have come across. Given the complete lack of finesse of this thing I'm guessing Stalions did not have the know how to hack a computer server. Or perhaps didn't have the motivation. Seems like he saw the grey area in the rules and thought he could exploit it and/or thought he would have a good defense if he got caught. But Sopwith seems to think the other stories out there left are another non-conference school realizing he bought tickets there, the How to Steal Signs document, and the method used to recruit his recorders.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
I don't have access to any insider sites or anything, but my cursory glances around the web seem to point to 3 stories being the "last batch of bad news to drop":
1. Stalions attending a game in-person
2. Stalions hacking/accessing Ohio State practice film somehow (whether with help from an OSU person, or just straight up computer crimes)
3. Your last point about other games his scouts watched/their how-to tutorial for how the whole scheme worked
1 & 3 are basically extensions of what we know already. 2 is bad news, and would explain what specifically triggered whoever started the investigation to finally really look into Connor's scheme
October 27th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^
If Stalions hacked something that's the realm of the legal system. There would be police involvement and the firm would have turned over evidence to the police too I'm assuming. With Weiss, police were at his house like immediately. Hasn't been a whiff of police involvement yet. So if he got practice film it wasn't hacking. Maybe he recruiting someone to give him film like that OSU message board did? For now seems like the recruiting recorders is the violation.
How it got triggered? I've always been very dismissive all the OSU message board stuff about OSU being mad about the sign stealing and hiring an PI to investigate. Given what has happened I am much more open to believeing that gossip.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^
"Maybe he recruiting someone to give him film"
If he wasn't authorized to access it, and that person wasn't authorized to distribute it ... it's still hacking.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
I'm not sure that is true. I mean hacking to me implies illegal means to obtain something. "hey buddy, can I buy that video tape for 100 bucks" isn't always illegal. It's usually the distribution of such things that is bad, not the possestion. People disclose things they are not authorized to the press, to law enforcement to third parties all the time. But I'm sure there is case law for all sorts of things that I don't know. If Stalions got someone on the OSU staff to give him practice film that sounds like an OSU problem. Unless he blackmailed the person or something.
October 27th, 2023 at 6:31 PM ^
Receiving stolen goods is illegal. Even if Stalions didn't specifically know it was stolen, he is liable if a reasonable and informed person in Stalion's shoes would assume it was.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
Sometimes when a player enters the portal they can send practice film out to other coaches. Could a former OSU player have sent it to stallions?
October 27th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
Scenario #2 (Stalions hacking/accessing OSU practice film) seems highly unlikely to me because
- (1) Stalions' job was code cracking, not scouting/analysis. I'm skeptical he would have much use for the practice film
- (2) Stalions has proven himself to be an idiot so I highly doubt he was capable of successfully obtaining any practice film
October 27th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
That makes sense. Although 99% of the time "hacking" is just someone giving someone else the information but that someone would never in a million years admit to actually doing so.
So, extrapolating. Stalions has a friend at OSU who gave him information he shouldn't have. Probably in exchange. OSU knew some information was out there and tried to figure out who leaked and went apeshit when they found Michigan was involved.
Fits the facts. Punish the offenders. Move on.
Edit: clarity and forgetting words like normal.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
I mean if there was an ecxhange you would think you would quietly fire the person cause opening an investigation then opens you up to that you have UM stuff as well. I doubt an exchange. I could see paying for something, but is that against the rules? Like if Ryan Day handed Harbaugh the practice footage that wouldn't get UM in trouble.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
I don't know about that second part, but I do know that most people don't realize what hacking is. The vast majority of "hacking" is done via social engineering (which could be as simple as nabbing a password off a post-it note), and it's incredibly easy for anybody to be successful at if they don't have the scruples to prevent themselves from doing so.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:51 PM ^
Good point. A "hack" in this case could mean he pretended to be an OSU reporter/analyst and duped an OSU staffer into handing over the footage. Could be he pretended to be IT, and asked for an OSU staffer's credentials. Or he could have straight up bribed someone for the assets.
But I don't want to get into reckless speculation, there's been plenty of that this week. I'm just looking for cold, hard facts during this maelstrom of rumors and accusations
October 27th, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
and at least a 600 page memoir at that....
October 27th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
I would think that Bacon already has his first draft of the book about this completed
October 27th, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^
I could be proven wrong, but I doubt the practice footage hack for the single reason that it would be the biggest buried lead of all time.
This is as much a media campaign as it is a rules violation investigation. The media has clearly led with the "sign stealing" bit, not because it's against the rules, but because given things like the Astros situation, it sounds the worst.
From a "let's get clicks perspective," leading with "Michigan busted illegally stealing signs" sounds worse than "Michigan busted for off-campus scouting." Even though one is against the rules and one isn't, the one that sounds worse got the lead because the second option would have just made people shrug.
So in a PR campaign like this, you hit them with the biggest thing right out of the gate:
"Michigan faces accusations of hacking Ohio State and accessing practice film" is probably the biggest click monster in the history of click monsters. Then you just keep hitting them with the follow up headlines from there that fill in more details, including the sign stealing operation.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
it also feels like, if OSU discovered literally michigan's offensive coordinator accessing their systems and getting their practice video in december, it would've come out before now? but it sure seems like there's something coming, and a reason for all the smoke around weiss. but maybe it's just a bunch of people reacting to other people's reactions.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^
The police/FBI have said the Weiss case is unrelated to this.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
Yes, the Weiss case is not related to NCAA violations. However, if not for the Weiss case, there would have been no forensic analysis of the computer.
They are unrelated, but the latter wouldn’t exist without the former.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:40 PM ^
yo, that's the definition of related
October 27th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
OSU hired a PI who spent who knows how long digging up dirt and Id think that should be somewhat encouraging to us- a lot of the discovery is probably done. Its not like this was a first tip and we’re just getting into it now. No, OSUs PI spent all summer digging through stuff and so far hasnt ‘leaked’ any information implicating anyone by name on staff but Stallions. I think if they had more they wouldve gleefully leaked that too
On the one hand thats good because it probably supports that Stallions was running this on his own. On the other its still bad because Harbaugh is still ultimately responsible for this as head coach per NCAA rules, the NCAA has no consistency and they in fact seem to have a grudge against Jim
I just think if there were more salacious details out there that Ryan Days crew (allegedly) wouldve made sure it was out there.
October 27th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
This simply isn’t plausible. If you discover your computer system owned by the state of Ohio has been hacked, you don’t hire a PI, you call law enforcement. Not reporting a breach would be a crime.
The police/ FBI confiscated the computer of Weiss. They completed a forensic analysis of his computer as part of the investigation. These are simply facts.
It allegedly started as an investigation into email access, and much darker information is alleged to be found and while not in scope of the original investigation, they would have found evidence of the NCAA violations if they exist or previously existed on the network or his PC. Everyone who accessed them would also be known. If the allegations of having 50+ hours of OSU practice film on the network are true it’s going to be tough to explain. In all honesty, if that is true does it matter who brought it to the NCAA?
October 27th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
Like clockwork buckeye...
October 27th, 2023 at 3:34 PM ^
Who is even saying that is true? Practice film itself is complete speculation in all of this, let alone 50 plus hours of practice footage. That is just lying and muckraking.
And Michigan is going to bomb OSU again.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
Practice footage are hard to get without someone from OSU feeding it. This would have been a big deal by now.
October 27th, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
If the allegations of having 50+ hours of OSU practice film on the network are true it’s going to be tough to explain.
Keep chasing this stuff and not focus on your on-field performance and this is going to start to look like the Cooper years.
October 27th, 2023 at 5:04 PM ^
This is silly. Film of an opposing team is not "dark." There is no way the FBI would see film of Ohio State and say, "Oh my god, we've just unearthed the biggest scandal in college football history!" They wouldn't give a shit. Even if true, that is so not within the purview of what they do or are looking for. It absolutely matters who brought it to the NCAA because that, itself, could be a regrettable dive into a pretty unsavory practice (how they got the info, if that info indeed exists).
October 27th, 2023 at 10:55 PM ^
To be fair these are people amazed by indoor plumbing so...
October 27th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
Weiss was fired for hacking into someone’s email. UMPD already said that this isn’t related to Stallions.
If Weiss hacked into OSU’s computers that would have sent to OSU police would who have informed the FBI. No evidence that FBI is involved thus far or anything happened to OSU’s computers.
What we do have is a someone hacking into UM’s systems. That exposed 230,000 people’s personal information including my own. I just got the letter yesterday informing me.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:40 PM ^
The only way he could have acquired that was hacking into OSU’s system, which is a crime, or buying it off of an OSU staffer.
Seeing as no LE is involved in this incident as of yet I doubt the former. The latter opens up a can of worms for OSU.
I find it interesting that this rumor started shortly after the news broke about the firm handling over evidence hard drives they were not authorized to access.
October 27th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
People plugged in with the program but not friendly with it by any means have been spreading computer hacking/Matt Weiss rumors for over a month. When signal gate dropped I assumed it was always this story with details embellished. I'm starting to think the hacking practice footage angle has always been a thing eventhough I don't think there's any truth to it.