Back of the Napkin Rescheduling Options
Disclaimer: all of this could be wrong, pure conjecture!
Looking at our schedule and the schedule of the opponents we have yet to play:
- It seems unlikely any games will be made up this week, based on all 6 involved team's schedules.
- Which means our next two games should be vs. Rutgers on Thursday (2/16) and @OSU next Sunday (2/21), as originally scheduled. This is good for us imo, as the OSU game is likely the most challenging remaining on the schedule and normal rest is definitely an advantage.
- If they're going to be made up at all, @PSU and vs. Northwestern will be made up the week of February 22nd. All three teams (Michigan, PSU and Northwestern) currently have a game on Sunday the 21st and then are off the entire work week until the next Saturday, February 27th, 5 days in a row. Therefore, if we get both, we should have these two games on Tuesday, 2/23 and Thursday 2/25 (meaning games every other day; Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday-Saturday). If that many 1 day breaks are too aggressive, at a minimum we should get one of those two on Wednesday, 2/24 (if we only get one, hopefully it's Northwestern; at home and they've looked worse lately than PSU).
- The most likely rescheduled time for Illinois looks to be Monday, March 1st or Tuesday March 2nd. Both Illinois and Michigan are off for an overlapping 4 days (2/28-3/3, Sunday-Wednesday). You'd imagine this is the highest priority to reschedule, as Illinois is the only one of the 5 not already on the schedule (past or present) and they're both conference title contenders.
- Assuming the above is at least somewhat accurate, I don't see any way for us to make up the Indiana game in Ann Arbor, and the only way we'd make up MSU in Ann Arbor would be a weird, back-to-back double header the final weekend of the season. We're scheduled to go to EL on Sunday, 3/7; given the schools are only ~1 hour driving away, they could have MSU come to Ann Arbor either on Saturday or Monday for back-to-back games, but I don't think that's particularly likely.
- All in all, Michigan should have a minimum of 2 games rescheduled, could get 3 if the B1G is aggressive, 4 if the B1G is VERY aggressive, and all 5 seems impossible.
The most aggressive, but still at least somewhat feasible, schedule post-pause (19 games, 4 rescheduled, vs. IU is not made up):
- (2/14, Sunday): @ Wisconsin (W, 67-59)
- 3 days rest
- (2/18, Thursday): vs. Rutgers
- 2 days rest
- (2/21, Sunday): @OSU
- 1 day rest
- (2/23, Tuesday): vs. Northwestern
- 1 day rest
- (2/25, Thursday): @PSU
- 1 day rest
- (2/27, Saturday): @Indiana
- 2 days rest
- (3/2, Tuesday): vs. Illinois
- 1 day rest
- (3/4, Thursday): vs. Iowa
- 2 days rest
- (3/7, Sunday): @MSU
- (3/8, Monday): vs. MSU
- 3 days rest before BTT begins on Friday, 3/12 (assuming UM is a Top 4 seed)
Again, all of this could be wrong, but wanted to think aloud and see if anyone else had thoughts (or could point out something I'm missing). It also is possible that they could move games that are already currently scheduled to try to space better, but that's impossible to predict so I won't try to.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:27 PM ^
MSU could be playing on Wednesday at the Big Ten Tournament so if there is a back to back to end the season, Saturday/Sunday is probably more likely.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^
My hope is that they'd give deference to a team likely to go into March Madness carrying the weight of the conference on its shoulders rather than a bottom barrel team that won't make the tournament, but UM never seems to get such preferential treatment so you're probably right.
Though, if they theoretically did keep it Sun/Mon, I could see them switching the home/away so MSU doesn't travel on Monday.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:28 PM ^
Every other day for games is too aggressive IMO definitely between osu and Indiana game make up at least 1 game.
I think at least 3 or 4 games will be made up, all 5 would be a tall order.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^
We can't make up more than one game between OSU and IU without every other day though.
Making up 3 games is not possible without at least 1-2 every other days. If they wanted to totally avoid every other day scenarios, we'd only get 2 games made up unless they altered existing games, but even with that there just isn't much room. Our postponements came too late in the season.
February 14th, 2021 at 6:59 PM ^
The league is making Nebraska play 6 games in 9 days directly off their long pause. Nebraska is the worst team in the league so there’s no really good reason to push them so hard except for filling out the TV schedule. And yet, they did so I think that’s a good insight into their thinking. As many games will be made up as reasonably possible, no matter how hard it is on the team.
Incidentally, Nebraska took Illinois to overtime on Friday and just beat Penn State today for their first Big Ten win in more than a year. So maybe playing on an every other day schedule isn’t the worst thing in the world.
These kids play several games in weekend tournaments while they’re in high school, and play games on 3-4 consecutive days in the holiday and conference tournaments. It’s not ideal but I think that they can handle a tight schedule the rest of the way. It’s just the way it is.
February 14th, 2021 at 9:11 PM ^
Still punishing Nebraska for the football season!
February 14th, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
my guess is they add psu, ill and nw. outside chance at adding msu at the end.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:29 PM ^
Also, nice work Squad 16, appreciate the effort.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:30 PM ^
Not bad, this makes sense and is feasible. Every game is gigantic, but we have the horses to go win them!
February 14th, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^
Also, the game vs Northwestern that needs to be made up is away, not home. So in the scenario above that would mean 4 road games in a 7 day span. Although it fits, not sure anyone would agree to that.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
Shoot, you're right. Then maybe the Big Ten could try to mess around with IU's existing games, to improve the home/away balance, but that would probably be the only trick. Illinois and MSU already have a rescheduled game right in the middle of next week, that was announced just last week.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
Yet to be seen what the B1G conference's priorities are, but the only feasible path forward, IMO, is to ditch the B1G tournament entirely.
Hearsay from a friend with whom I just got off a phone conversation, but hasn't Coach Howard himself said that, because these are COLLEGE STUDENTS who are directly affected, playing every other day should NOT be the plan going forward?
In the more immediate future, I think they could go Sunday (vs osu), Tuesday and then Thursday or Friday to get in two makeup games as long as they can get the @IU game pushed back a day to Sunday 2/28. That IU game as if right now is scheduled Saturday 2/27 (TBA), so it's apparently not locked in by a major network like the game is @ osu next Sunday 1pm.
This solution would sequence the schedule over the next two weeks as (starting from today): Rutger 4th day, then 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd day....OR... 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd day respectively for vs Rutgers, @osu, makeup, makeup, @IU.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:55 PM ^
I mean it would only be a week and a half of the super packed schedule, which isn't really that crazy at all when you compare it to March in a normal year (you can theoretically have 7-8 games in 11 days if you play all the way through the BTT and then into March Madness; our scenario wouldn't be that bad).
I hear what you're saying if it was like that for 3-4 weeks, but it would be a pretty brief period.
The problem with getting two games in next week and pushing IU back to Sunday is Illinois. Illinois is not a team we can reschedule easily the week of 2/22 based on their schedule (they have a game on Tuesday), and pushing IU back to Sunday makes the week of 3/1 even tighter.
February 14th, 2021 at 5:10 PM ^
“It would only be a week and a half of a super packed schedule” says the guy who will likely be watching from his couch with a beer in hand.
February 14th, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^
Agreed Rob.
It's pretty simple...No B1G tournament, no 1 day rest games and most regular consequential conference games can be played. It's nice to win it but the conference tournament is mostly just for "show" and should be at the bottom end of priorities at this point.
Of course it's the B1G, whatever they do will probably make no sense.
February 14th, 2021 at 4:55 PM ^
Good stuff. The Northwestern one is incorrect; we’ve already played them at home.
As such, it seems highly unlikely that both @PSU and @NU get made up. My guess is U-M plays Illinois (since they haven’t played), MSU (since that can be done back to back) and either PSU or NU (to get to an even split of 9 home/9 away).
February 14th, 2021 at 5:01 PM ^
Why do ANY OF THE GAMES need to be made up? Committee already has us as a One seed based on the games we've been able to play. Big Ten ought to give us the same red-carpet treatment that OSU football got. We've got a Final Four team. Would be nothing like a over-packed conference schedule down the stretch to screw that up. Let them rest and play the rest of the games as scheduled.
February 15th, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
How the committee will seed us remains to be seen, but we probably can't win the Big Ten title only playing 15 games. The conference will most likely require us to play a few more.
February 14th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
We don’t need to make up any games because we will have played every team once by the time we finish the current schedule. And unless there is a week where we only have one game scheduled that week, it makes no sense to try and fit in more games and force these kids to suffer that extra wear and tear on their bodies. That should never happen. The two week break and the rest of the schedule both need to follow the same principle: Health first!
February 14th, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
Haven’t played Illinois. I think that gets rescheduled for sure.
February 14th, 2021 at 5:11 PM ^
Right, I missed that. They can fit it in or they can switch it out with someone we’ve already played.
February 14th, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^
Same with Iowa. Illini and Iowa are the only two games that hasn't been played yet. Both will need to be rescheduled for sure.
February 14th, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
Isn’t Iowa coming up?
February 14th, 2021 at 5:06 PM ^
I think the Illinois game will be rescheduled for sure and maybe the home game vs MSU. They can figure out 2 games easy. No reason to play PSU and Northwestern again.
February 14th, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
Why make up any of those games? Why put that stress on the kids?
February 14th, 2021 at 5:20 PM ^
You have to reschedule at least Illinois. It wouldn’t make any sense not to
February 14th, 2021 at 5:25 PM ^
It makes no sense to add extra games to the end of the schedule and tire them out. Especially since we are all hoping for a bunch of games in the big ten tournament. If Illinois wants to play Michigan, win in the tournament.
February 14th, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^
The only games I want rescheduled is msu Indiana and Illinois. Don’t care for the NW or PSU games. I just really want to kick Illini Hoosier and Spartan ass!
February 14th, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^
You just put more work into this situation than the Big Ten has/will...
February 14th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
Hard pass on that kind of rescheduling.
These kids aren't pros - they are still college students. Michigan was forced to shutdown, even though the basketball program had no covid issues. I don't think they ought to be penalized for something outside of their control
There's only one game that should be rescheduled, and that is Illinois...probably MSU as well, but the other 3, i don't think so... i think the worst case is 3 rescheduled and best is just the one game versus Illinois
I'd rather the team forfeit those games and have a lower seed than risk injury and fatigue going into the tournaments.
February 14th, 2021 at 6:11 PM ^
I say play what we have left and add in Illinois and then call it a regular season. That gives us games against everyone and the league would know whether we have a lead that isn’t gonna be topped. Sorry but games against NW, IU, Penn St and Sparty aren’t gonna flip the needle a whole lot this year. What you do risk doing is increasing likelihood of an injury and also wearing down your best bet at a National Championship for our league. We saw what they did for OSU to try and get a championship, same should apply here. If you want to go by number of wins and that puts us maybe 3rd or 4th in the conference tournament so be it, just don’t overly stack the games.
February 14th, 2021 at 6:52 PM ^
How can you tell which is the back of the napkin? I keep turning and turning.
February 14th, 2021 at 7:03 PM ^
My two cents:
I don't think there is any way they can make up all the games if the Big Ten Tournament is going to happen as scheduled. My hope is that they don't try to make them make up more than 3 of them.
If I were planning it, I would have Michigan make up the @PSU game and the MSU game before the end of the season. If Michigan and Illinois are both heading toward the B1G Tournament double-bye with the regular season championship still on the line, I would have Michigan and Illinois make up their game on the Monday or Tuesday before the BTT begins and move the @MSU game a day earlier to Saturday if possible. Scrap the Indiana and @Northwestern games.
February 14th, 2021 at 7:27 PM ^
Screw it and just finish the games on the schedule. No need to overwork the team right before the tourney.
February 14th, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^
Great, great post, OP. Thanks for doing the legwork, it was much more than a back of the napkin look at the options.
The fact that we're in this situation makes me even more upset at the absolutely stupid scheduling the league did. There was no reason for us to have two games against Maryland and Minnesota before we had played half the league even once. They should have started with a single round robin for the first part of the season, which would have ended last week. Then, used the last three weeks to make up any missed games, then just fit together the remaining games based on availability of the leftover teams. Now M and Illinois, two of the top tier teams, are going to have to scramble to make up a game on short rest for both, potentially impacting the quality of the match-up. Dumb and shortsighted, like nearly everything the conference has done this year.
Also, how are they going to find enough refs to work all these games? Presumably there are enough for the normal cadence of two games a week, but now the refs are going to be overworked trying to get these in as well, or they'll be dipping into MAC and Horizon level officials. If a close game is decided on a close call this year, keep an eye on the amount of high level experience the refereeing team has.
February 14th, 2021 at 7:48 PM ^
Dump the conference tournament - finish the regular season.
February 14th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
One thing is certain. The resolution of this scenario will show conclusively that the Big Ten is actively antagonistic toward Michigan. They made the path as easy as possible for OSU football. They will not do this for Michigan. After this happens, there will be no question about how the conference views Michigan.
February 14th, 2021 at 9:17 PM ^
I don't want to make up any games! More of a chance to lose games! The race is to close! I get to nervous! I just want Michigan to wrap up this big ten championships and move on!
February 14th, 2021 at 9:24 PM ^
The max that should be rescheduled is 3 games. That would be 8 games in the remaining 24 days before BTT spaced roughly evenly.
There’s a 4 day gap from OSU to Indiana and a 6 day gap from Indiana to Iowa and then assuming Michigan gets a double bye another 4 day gap at the end of the season. Even that might require moving another game that’s already scheduled. Reschedule MSU at home because that’s the easiest travel, Illinois because they haven’t played, and then for the 3rd whoever.
February 14th, 2021 at 9:51 PM ^
Ditch the conference tourney. It's fun, but it's a novelty. The conference W/L is the best true measure of who's the best in the conference, and we all know the "real" tourney is the big dance.
February 14th, 2021 at 10:04 PM ^
I REALLY hope that's not the schedule. It's not at all reasonable.
February 15th, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
19 games is absolute insanity. 18 is too many and 17 is pushing it. There is no upside for Michigan to cram these games in. Reschedule Illinois and 1st Sparty game and be done with it.