B1G West coaching change discussion
It looks like the B1G West is suddenly starting to stock up on some pretty good coaches at just about the time that we will probably be doing away with divisions. I'm not a fan of Bielema, but it's impressive what he has been able to do at Illinois in just two years. Now we have Luke Fickell going to Wisconsin, Matt Rhule in at Nebraska, and it also sounds like Purdue was willing to throw a bunch of money at Brohm to keep him, so maybe they'll open up the checkbook to make a good hire.
So a few questions for a relatively slow day on the board:
- Which, if either, of these new coaches will be able to have the biggest impact in a short amount of time?
- It seems that one of the biggest factors holding the West back has been the lack of recruiting compared to the East. Will either of them be able to close this gap?
- Who should Purdue go after? Then who will they go after?
Bonus questions: Which of the non-B1G coaching hires will be most successful? Who is most likely to flame out? Here are some of the options to choose from:
- Deion Sanders → Colorado
- Hugh Freeze → Auburn
- Jeff Brohm → Louisiville
- Tom Herman → FAU
- Kevin Wilson → Tulsa
We know Biff Poggi is going to be successful, so no need to even talk about that one. Good luck coach and thanks for your service!
December 9th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
Feldman is floating Todd Monken (Georgia OC) for Purdue
December 9th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
On the one hand, Georgia's offense is nothing impressive looking. Run a lot, use its athletes, etc. Very familiar type of concepts to Michigan fans, obviously. Nothing about Georgia's offense seems schematically unique.
On the other hand, Georgia is *really good* at scheming stuff using its offense to produce drives and points exploiting the weak spots of its opponents. Obviously, what we saw last year and what they've shown this year depends a lot on having superior athletes that you can involve. But they are still really good at this.
If Monken is the driver of this, I'd think he'd be a fascinating addition to watch.
Edit: My guess is that Purdue wouldn't be a top choice for Monken, though. Since this is just a talking head idea, I doubt it happens.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Georgia's offense torched us pretty good last year. I think they are a lot like Michigan, they arent there to impress you, they are there to win efficiently and secure a victory.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
Yes, they also have multiple years of being the #1 or #2 rated recruiting class so their talent level is pretty high across the board and into the 2 deep. Makes a pretty big difference in terms of what you can execute on the field
December 9th, 2022 at 4:24 PM ^
Coaches are the (mostly) reason for and not just the benefit of recruiting,
December 9th, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
And it's not just talent. They attacked our biggest weakness on defense and then countered with what that opened elsewhere. It was a coaching masterclass.
They managed to take Hutch and Ojabo out of the game while running low-risk plays that were consistently getting them 1st downs and points. That's not easy to do.
All that said, I'm not sure Monken's offense is the right fit for Purdue. They tend to excel with innovative, pass-heavy offenses. But he may be a good enough coach to adjust to what Purdue needs.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
I don't necessarily agree. It's not the most flashy offense, but look at how efficient they've been the past two years.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
They should probably interview the Georgia OC and DC multiple times the week after new years. I'm thinking 3 10 hour interviews for each of them that week!
December 9th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
I watched some Syracuse games this year and they looked terrible and they had mentioned he was on the hot seat before his good start this season. Feels like fools gold.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
It is very strange how these coaching searches are so heavily based on the last 10+ games of the coaches resume. Even with Coach Harbaugh:
-Terrible covid year? NFL "No thanks"
-Big ten championship year? NFL "yes please"
As if the super bowl runs and turning around programs/franchises means very little.
December 11th, 2022 at 12:05 AM ^
It’s so cliche but so true…what have you done for me lately? The memory and attention span of the media and sportswriters/talking heads is like a goldfish.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
It's good to know that UGA might be have a big assistant coaching hole to fill. Monken would be a good hire for Purdue if that were to happen.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
So, with only 1 year left of the Big10 West, they have to have a year 1 impact. After that, it's the top 2 teams which they probably won't breach with USC added. Their best result will be 4th or 5th in the conference, at best, for several years to come.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
Given what happened to USC and could have happened to TCU because of their lack of divisions, I hardly think it's open and shut that we lose divisions.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
*and what WOULD have happened to OSU if we didn’t have divisions
December 9th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
Exactly!
Much less chance of a rematch given we are only playing 2 of the other division's teams.
Pods would be even better, but that seems like way too outside the box for those radical risk-takers in charge of the Big 10.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
Yea this past season has made me change my mind on divisions - I think the best idea is Seth's "showcase" but because of money that'll never happen. I think the second best idea is pods, so every two years your divisions rotate but your rivals are still in your division. That way you can still see near every campus in 4 years.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
2024 will also have the expanded playoff. I agree with your argument or 2023, but none of the division-less championship losers you mentioned would have missed the expanded playoffs, even if OSU lost twice to us - which they would have.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
Bo Pelini to Purdue. Calling that shot now.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
With or without his cat?
December 9th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
Oh God. That would be awesome. Pellllini reunited with Big 10 refs. Nebraska on the schedule. Just hook it to my veins...
December 9th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
Bo Pelini, back in the Big Ten West, but now having to face Nebraska as an opposing coach each season? I am sure I've waited for this moment, but I didn't realize it until now.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
Pelini was a DC and had one of the worst defenses in the country when he was LSUs DC a few years ago.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:53 PM ^
Didn't the team lose 1/3 of its roster to the NFL or transfer though? Plus he had Coach O on the hot seat. It was a tough spot.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
The first time around at LSU as DC under Miles, Pelini had great defenses, so I don't know if cherry picking a single year says much about him. He parlayed his success as DC at LSU into the head gig at Nebraska. He wasn't Tom Osbourne, but he wasn't Mike Riley or Bill Callahan either. I bet Nebraska fans would take Pelinini's good but not great several year run of 9 or 10 wins seasons in a heartbeat.
December 10th, 2022 at 3:03 AM ^
You are talking 15 years ago now when he was with Miles. He had some of Nebraskas worst defenses in their history while he was there. Wisconsin trounced them 70-21 the one year in the Big Ten title game.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
Just for fun: Steve Spurrier to Purdue.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
Best hire in CFB (so far): Deion Sanders → Colorado: He's already pulling in great recruits at a 1-11 team.
Best B1G hire (so far): Matt Rhule → Nebraska: Succeeded everywhere he's been in college, rebuilt two programs in more challenging situations than Nebraska.
Most likely to flame out: Hugh Freeze → Auburn: Meh coach and only a matter of time until off-field issues undo him again.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^
Temple and post-Briles Baylor were indeed challenging situations, but the expectations were also lower there. No doubt Rhule can get Nebraska back to bowl games and maybe 9 wins, but that's not something they have been happy with there in the past
December 9th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
Maybe Nebraska hasn’t been happy with 9 wins in the past, but I’m pretty sure they’d sacrifice their first born children for 9 wins right about now.
One season with a winning record in the last 8. 9 wins has to sound pretty nice.
December 9th, 2022 at 5:32 PM ^
this
winning 9 games in that division gets you to the B1G title game
December 9th, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^
It's striking how your opinion and Cousin Larry's post below are exact opposites.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:19 PM ^
I’d agree with you. I also think it’s hard to “flame out” at places like Tulsa and FAU that don’t really have much basis for success. So those really aren’t boom or bust in my eyes.
I’m also not as sold on Fickell as many on this board are. His approach is very different than the manball that has become a trademark of Wisconsin football. This is a big culture change for them, almost like RichRod to UM. Time will tell obviously. I certainly hope he flames out though.
December 9th, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^
I know everyone says Deion is a legit good coach, but my gut still tells me he's the next Jimbo. Would love to be wrong about that.
Agree on Freeze though. His record isn't as good as the "beat Alabama" makes it seem. Plus, as a Christian, I hate his faux-Christian persona while being a scummy person at the same time.
Honestly, none of the rest of Brohm, Herman, and Wilson excite me. Rhule, I think, can get Nebraska back to that 9-3, 10-2 tier, but may have a hard time making the leap to 11-1/12-0 (which is a hard leap to make, as Harbaugh can attest to).
December 9th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
To answer the second part, I think Freeze will be the most successful because he's a good coach and a sleazy coach in an era when sleaze has become acceptable.
Most likely to flame out? I gotta say Deion. He just seems like a fish out of water up in the mountains. He should have stayed in the southeast.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:34 PM ^
I think Freeze is a disaster waiting to happen. The mere willingness to accept shady recruiting practices does not a winning program make. Freeze produced the former just fine at Ole Miss, but results at the level he was getting there, a couple of upsets over Bama aside, will not cut it at Auburn for long.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
Your reasoning is great, except for one assumption I think you get wrong-- I don't think Auburn thinks long term for a HC. I think they hope they can ride the dragon for 3-5 years, get their SEC title and potential National Championship shot, and then if the coach flames out, no problem, onto the next one. They're willing to endure boom-bust cycles so long as the boom is a really kick ass high.
December 9th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
To answer the second part, I think Freeze will be the most successful because he's a good coach and a sleazy coach in an era when sleaze has become acceptable.
Is Freeze a good coach? I got the impression that he had the success he did by bringing in insane talent (more on that in a minute), not necessarily by anything that had to do with his coaching, but I honestly don't know. E.g. I'd take Kiffen over Freeze in a heartbeat; also a great recruiter, but he's definitely got a great mind for offense.
But I think the sleaziness goes the other way for Freeze. In this era where sleaze has become acceptable, I don't think you need to be as sleezy to have success. Freeze got his recruiting success by pushing the sleaziness boundaries even by SEC standards. But with so much now that can be above the table instead of having to be below it, it feels like he loses his advantage there. It's not like Auburn is the only school with rich alumni willing to throw bag at recruits...
December 9th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
Deion is both the most likely to be successful and the most likely to flame out
December 9th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
I agree with this in general. Deion has the potential to be the greatest recruiter in college football history, and a talent advantage will take you a long way. But it remains to be seen what he does with that talent; does he have the coaching chops to take advantage of it, and can he foster a culture that doesn't implode on itself (Jimbo Fisher is, or at least was, a great coach, but he has serious culture problems despite the ridiculous talent he has at A&M...)?
The reason why I only agree in general though is that I don't think he's going to flame out at Colorado (but I don't think he's going to stick around there, either). I mean I guess it's possible they continue to suck, but I think it's more likely that the talent he's bringing in gets them back to respectability, which propels Deion to a higher profile job (and where the above questions start to come into play)...
December 9th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
Indeed it's hard to be worse on-field than Colorado has been recently, but I could see this thing going sideways if they are just as bad next year, plus there are off-field problems. I mean they hired Dorrell because the guy lived in Boulder and ran a scandal-free program. Now they are allegedly going to open up their transfer restrictions just for Deion, so if the results don't appear quickly it could get ugly
December 9th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
Jackson State was a good fundamental teams in terms of skills I watched at the FCS level this season. I think Deion might be a unicorn in that he might be a great recruiter and a great coach. The one red flag for me though is Jackson St had one of the highest penalty/game stats in FCS.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:57 PM ^
I’m probably alone on this one, but I’m a little concerned about Deions influence on college football. He seems interested in commercializing the whole sport. I’m not sure he cares about tradition, classes, or why people might enjoy it more than the NFL. My concern is that his approach will become popular and further move the game away from what we all love. It feels like only a matter of time before sponsorships are on jerseys, instagram handles are on helmets, and guys are doing Aflac commercials instead of going to class.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
Best B1G West coaching hire: Matt Rhule (Nebraska).
Will the B1G West close the gap with the B1G East: no - and if so, only minimally. The structural differences between the two divisions are huge.
Who will Purdue hire: just to get everyone's dander up, I'll say Pat Narduzzi. He IS a border-line candidate, and being in his mid-50s he probably has only one big HC switch left in his career. He's had a good run at Pittsburgh, it's not a bad time for a change. Pittsburgh & Purdue both have about the same ceiling, but Narduzzi proved he can hit that ceiling.
Most successful non-B1G coaching hire: I think Herman will revitalize his career at FAU. Be a top-tier AAC team (new conference for them) within 2-3 years and then launch back into the P5. He's still in his mid-40s, so he's relatively young. He'll basically do what Lane did a few years ago.
Non-B1G coaching hire who will flame out: Absolutely Deion.
Other thoughts: I'm not as high as most people as regards Fickell at Wisconsin. Brohm is going to be fantastic at Louisville. Sadderfield at Cincinnati is a terrible hire IMO, not as bad as Tuberville but it's going to be a bomb. Poggi --- I think Charlotte is a dead end coaching job. Below the NC ACC schools, Clemson, UGA and App State in terms of getting attention in the market. They hosted Maryland earlier this year and barely had 10K in attendance. Maybe he is Chris Creighton and succeeds there, but Charlotte reminds me a good bit of EMU from a structural POV.
December 9th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
The gap between west and east closes if and only if one of those current western programs emerges into a real threat to enter the upper echelon. The previous ceiling has been some good Wisconsin teams.
I mean, maybe multiple programs at that previous Wisconsin level would help (there have been zero for a couple of seasons now) but basically this involves Wisconsin making a leap or Nebraska transforming into Nebraska again.
(USC's presence will, *probably*, spread the wealth a bit, but also make it harder for one of these midrange programs to get to elite status).
December 9th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
from like 2014-2019, OSU was in a class of their own, and Wisconsin was up there with PSU and Michigan, but happened to be in the West - which was an advantage.
At the moment, PSU and OSU treaded water, M passed OSU, and Wiscy fell behind. But I think Illinois is legitimately surging in the right direction. As long as M and OSU are in their own category, the East will be much stronger. But having 1 consistently solid program suddenly makes the west feel better. Whether it's Wiscy returning to that level with Fickell, Illinois surging to it with Bielema, or both - will they equalize? Unlikely unless M and OSU both falter for a while, and PSU never hits their potential. But will they be competing with the ACC as worst division in the power 5? I think it's unlikely, I think someone will step up moving forward, and someone is going to effectively use all that TV$
December 9th, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
Let's wait and see about Illinois. We've seen coaches surge in year 2, only to fall back to normalcy once they're treated as the hunted instead of the hunter (Tom Allen at IU and Tuck comin' MSU the most recent examples). If I am wagering on it, I am taking the under in Illinois wins next year.
December 9th, 2022 at 5:51 PM ^
I'm bullish on illinois - Bielema is a proven Big Ten west winner, and they've followed a trajectory. In '21, 4 of his 7 losses were one score games (and 1 infamous win). In '22, ALL of their losses were one score games (albeit 2 to very bad teams, but one to the #2 team in the country). He's not one of my favorite coaches and I'm not really rooting for them, but I think they're building something solid as long as he's around.
December 9th, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
If USC continues to play “defense” the way they did this past pac12 title game, they probably won’t be winning the big ten west anytime soon…
December 9th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
Some of the G5 conferences will have an interesting assortment of new coaches:
AAC: Biff Poggi, Tom Herman, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Traylor, TBD (North Texas)
Conf USA: RichRod, Jerry Kill, Jamey Chadwell
Biff is an unconventional hire for sure. I do wonder if Charlotte quit on Healy, considering they finished strong(er) under the interim. Charlotte should get a bit more money moving to the AAC, the area is talent-rich but with no blueblood program in the state, so I'm really curious to see how he does (and pulling for them)