AP Poll: Michigan at 10. Oregon takes bigger fall there. Big mathups coming next week will determine a lot

Submitted by Ezekiels Creatures on November 24th, 2019 at 2:16 PM

Quadrazu

November 24th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^

These polls are so predictable: it's just like them to have Michigan at 9-2, ranked above two 9-2 teams that defeated them (Wisconsin and Penn State).

TheDirtyD

November 24th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^

I think they reevaluate week to week. This isn’t the same Michigan team that played Wisconsin weeks ago. Also if I were voting I’d be ranking teams who play on a neutral field. At this moment Michigan would be favored to win those two games. Penn State needed a miracle from the refs and Ronnie Bell to drop a pass. To hold on to win at home. PSU isn’t that good. They’re the most overrated team in the polls. 

TrueBlue2003

November 24th, 2019 at 3:12 PM ^

Eh, OSU dominated that game yesterday, nearly doubling PSU's total yardage.  That was only a "scare" temporarily because of three really high leverage fumbles by OSU, which were fluky events.

PSU is a good team but they're not great and they're overrated by the committee.  They were extremely lucky to beat Michigan at home.  It was pretty clear Michigan was the better team and the only question that game was whether Michigan would have enough time to come back from some early mistakes and terrible reffing.  The entire second half featured PSU holding on for their lives.  And Michigan has looked even better since that game, clearly turning a corner.

PSU was outgained by Pitt.  Outgained by Iowa.  They've been pretty lucky.

PSU's performance against OSU the previous few years means nothing for this years teams.

raleighwood

November 24th, 2019 at 6:09 PM ^

Did you watch the Wisconsin game?  It was literally one of the worst beat downs in Michigan history.  It was up there with Florida State in 1991, Tennessee in 2002, Penn State in 2017 or Ohio State in 2018 (I'm not including RR or Hoke years).

I realize that Michigan has improved since then but I'd need to know what they're going to do differently on D before thinking they could beat Wisconsin.

Penn State on the other hand....I think that Michigan is clearly better (and probably was when they played).

 

TrueBlue2003

November 24th, 2019 at 3:18 PM ^

Exactly.  The idea that just because you win a head-to-head, you're a better team is dumb. 

Is Illinois better than Wisconsin?

Everyone complaining last week that PSU was ranked ahead of Minnesota weren't complaining that Minnesota was ranked ahead of Iowa.  Record matters in context of schedule.  Minnesota has played a joke schedule so their 9-1 wasn't the same as PSU's 9-1.  In fact is was closer to Iowa's 7-3 (last week PSU had a SoR of 6, Minnesota was 14th and Iowa was 18).

SD Larry

November 24th, 2019 at 2:36 PM ^

Glad were are ahead of PSU at least for now. For what little its worth, I think Michigan is better right now than PSU, even though we lost a close one in Happy Valley with some incredibly inconsistent pi calls.  Since PSU, we dismantled Notre Dame and Sparty.  The win over Iowa looks better all the time.  

HailHail47

November 24th, 2019 at 2:37 PM ^

We are be striking distance of the CFP if we beat OSU convincingly. Need a few breaks though. 

Auburn over Bama. 

Wisconsin over Minnesota. Then OSU over Wisconsin. 

LSU over GA in SEC championship

Utah loses again 

Oklahoma loses again

ak47

November 24th, 2019 at 4:20 PM ^

It’s because Georgia is really a 1 loss team with an extra game than a 2 loss team. I think it would be more logical to think of Georgia as a 1.5 loss team if they lost to LSU. If beating osu would change it that much Michigan would be in front of a 1 loss Georgia next week, the committee has shown with Florida they don’t mind putting team with more losses higher 

Ham

November 24th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^

According to 538's college football predictor, if Michigan beats OSU, LSU wins out (meaning they beat UGA), Oregon wins out (meaning they beat Utah), Oklahoma loses next week, and Alabama loses next week, Michigan and UGA both have a 31% chance to make the playoffs. That's up from the 2% chance Michigan currently has. 

The likelihood of UM winning, LSU beating UGA in the SEC title game, Oregon beating Utah in the Pac12 title game, and Oklahoma and Alabama losing next week is: ~.8%.

Though if Baylor beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, their chances go up to 57% (from 14% before the game) and Michigan's fall to 29% (UGA's chances disproportionately fall to 14%). It didn't let me see what would happen if Oklahoma lost next week and then beat Baylor (though it says they have a 71% of beating Baylor and only a 21% chance of making the playoffs). If Baylor loses to the Fighting Les Miles, it says Michigan would have a 38% before the Big 12 title game happens.

The system is also very finicky. If I have VaTech win out, meaning they beat Clemson in the ACC title game, which should make it more likely that Michigan would make it since it would eliminate Clemson (<1% chance for them) and open up another spot, Michigan's chances fall to <1% and both Oklahoma and Oregon would have a >99% of making it.

Michology 101

November 24th, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^

It would help Michigan if those things were to happen, but it seems you've forgotten about Baylor.  

The most realistic scenario would be Oklahoma losing to Oklahoma State and then the Sooners defeating Baylor in the Big 12 CCG.  

It might be close, but an one loss Big 12 Champion Baylor team would most likely be placed ahead of Michigan.

The Wisconsin vs Minnesota game might not matter as long as the winner loses to OSU because Michigan could still leap a two loss Minnesota team in the playoff rankings. 

 

rice4114

November 24th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^

If Georgia beats LSU convincingly and Alabama rolls Auburn its going to get really interesting for the playoff. There might even be a team that has a solid argument for a third SEC team in the playoff. And I hate the SEC but in that scenario with a rough loss most recently going to LSU what do you do?

ralphgoblue

November 24th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^

Nice to see some tradition ...

10 of the top 15 teams in total wins All Time (D1)  are inside this weeks AP top 15 .(Michigan,Ohio St,Alabama,Oklahoma,N Dame,Penn St,Georgia,LSU,Auburn and Clemson

The other 5 schools that are inside the top 15 All Time wins,that are NOT in this poll are Texas,Nebraska.,USC,Tennessee and West Virginia

Rafiki

November 24th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^

If UM wins next week it’ll be interesting to see where they end up. Right now they’re the second highest 2 loss team. If they win they’ll have the best win of any team 5-10 and the hardest schedule. They’d definitely jump Minn FL and Utah. But would they jump OU and be just outside the top 4?