21- 20 -17-14 -12 - 6

Submitted by TorontoBlue on

This is the descending # of points M has scored against Sparty since 2008.  We have not scored a TD against Sparty since the 2011 season (3 years ago).  Does the trend continue?  After watching OSU destroy Rutgers yesterday I say yes, but then Sparty had trouble in Bloomington so I am cautiously optimistic.  Thoughts?

GO BLUE!

B-Nut-GoBlue

October 20th, 2014 at 12:10 AM ^

Nobody gives a rats pooper about the "tradition" of this program right now and if you do it's blatant blindness regarding the progress that we're lacking and downward spiral we're enduring.  The past few years have been baaaaaaaad.  We aren't getting better and the recent history is what's more the issue as it's more indicative of the immediate future than ten years ago.

rob50

October 20th, 2014 at 4:44 PM ^

So plugging this into my extremely complex statistical model(lol), which we call the ECSM for short, we're due to score 2 points! So put us down for a safety. Book it! :)



. corr points year

(obs=10)



             |   points     year

-------------+------------------

      points |   1.0000

        year   |  -0.9780   1.0000





. regress points year



    Source |       SS                df       MS                   Number of obs =      10

-------------+------------------------------                      F(  1,     8) =  175.87

      Model |  1179.92727     1  1179.92727        Prob > F      =  0.0000

Residual |  53.6727273     8  6.70909091        R-squared     =  0.9565

-------------+------------------------------                      Adj R-squared =  0.9511

       Total |      1233.6     9  137.066667              Root MSE      =  2.5902



------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      points |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

        year |  -3.781818   .2851707   -13.26   0.000    -4.439423   -3.124213

    _cons |   7618.582   572.7659    13.30   0.000     6297.781    8939.382

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, at(year=(2004(1)2014))



Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =         10

Model VCE    : OLS



Expression   : Linear prediction, predict()



1._at        : year            =        2004

2._at        : year            =        2005

3._at        : year            =        2006

4._at        : year            =        2007

5._at        : year            =        2008

6._at        : year            =        2009

7._at        : year            =        2010

8._at        : year            =        2011

9._at        : year            =        2012

10._at       : year            =        2013

11._at       : year            =        2014



------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             |            Delta-method

             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]

-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------

         _at |

          1  |   39.81818   1.522395    26.15   0.000     36.83434    42.80202

          2  |   36.03636   1.291165    27.91   0.000     33.50573      38.567

          3  |   32.25455   1.085898    29.70   0.000     30.12623    34.38287

          4  |   28.47273   .9240586    30.81   0.000     26.66161    30.28385

          5  |   24.69091   .8314082    29.70   0.000     23.06138    26.32044

          6  |   20.90909   .8314082    25.15   0.000     19.27956    22.53862

          7  |   17.12727   .9240586    18.53   0.000     15.31615    18.93839

          8  |   13.34545   1.085898    12.29   0.000     11.21713    15.47377

          9  |   9.563636   1.291165     7.41   0.000     7.032999    12.09427

         10  |   5.781818   1.522395     3.80   0.000     2.797979    8.765657

         11  |          2           1.769438     1.13   0.258    -1.468034    5.468034

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Science!

 

Mr Miggle

October 20th, 2014 at 2:37 AM ^

Those are some pretty big breakdowns when the QB isn't much of a threat. Other than those 3 big runs IU gained 50 total yards. Once MSU cleaned up its act it was a complete rout.

It's hard to see how there was a serious decline in the QB's play during the game. He threw for 11 yards and 0 INT.

BlueGoM

October 20th, 2014 at 6:46 AM ^

Against a 5th string QB.

Take a long hard look at MSU's schedule.  They have only played 2 good teams (Neb. And Oregon).  Purdue (!) moved the ball on them.   I don't think they're as good as their ranking.

I may be proven horribly wrong on Saturday, but I think we'll at least make this game close.

 

User -not THAT user

October 20th, 2014 at 9:05 AM ^

has some semblance of an offence.  Any of the teams they played do.

Michigan was a DB's DERP away from not scoring a TD against Penn State.

It doesn't matter if MSU's defense isn't as good as it was in previous years.  The drop-off level from where they were to where they are is A LOT less than the leve lfrom where UM's offense was from this time last year to where it is now.

Blue Mike

October 20th, 2014 at 9:32 AM ^

Purdue just scored 38 on Minnesota.  In Minnesota.  How did our offense do against Minnesota, at home?

People need to realize that Purdue's offense is better than ours right now.  At least they have an identity and a plan.  We look like we're just trying to find a way to string 5 or 6 plays together to get into scoring position most of the time.

Add to that the fact that we're on the road, and MSU always gets up for this game more than we do, and there is a chance that it gets ugly.  And you know that MSU isn't taking their foot off the gas against us like they did with Purdue or Nebraska.

The players had better be ready for a brawl, and actually fight back in this one.

TESOE

October 20th, 2014 at 1:25 AM ^

sailed for the time being.  Every week will diminish the return on firing DB.  The coaching hire is the key.  I don't know who would drive the CC if DB is fired at or near December.  That would truly bring chaos.

The time to fire DB was last week during the bye.  Schlissel is not able to swallow that pill.  So be it.   The longer he takes the more I support DB to vet and hire the next coach.  There comes a time to circle the wagons.

BornSinner

October 20th, 2014 at 2:13 AM ^

Pretty damn sure they want an AD in place before firing Brandon, hence why it will take longer. 

If he does survive then I just don't know... 

If Florida fires Muschamp Monday, and hires our #1 coach sometime in December and January while we're still stuck with Hoke's and Brandon's dumbasses we haven't learned shit from the two prior coaching cycles. 

 

I give up... 

TESOE

October 20th, 2014 at 2:45 AM ^

if DB were doing fine I'd expect him to have contacted agents for other coaches by now.  If  it's Bates or Long or some other experienced AD I'm sure they would know who to call.  To think that we would be hiring both an AD and coach in one month... it's just crazy.

The current AD should rightfully be scrambling trying to put together a plan/package that will get the right guy.  A new hire has to assess the team, the politics and ps and qs and turn it all around in a week or so perhaps.  The schedule is tight.  Wouldn't you rather have DB take the onus of fixing his mistakes than Bates coming in and having his agenda handed to him by Schlissel, who is out of his depth, or worse yet the regents.

I don't like Brandon but I think he knows more about hiring football coaches at this point than the president or the regents ever will know or care to know.

BornSinner

October 20th, 2014 at 8:44 AM ^

Sorry no I truly believe Brandon hasn't learned shit. He is only doing what he is doing now due to public pressure and negativiy. He doesn't give a crap about the fanbase as long as he gets his way, which is usually a detriment to Michigan in every form possible except its pocketbooks. 

I think Long and Bates are rather experienced in being ADs, so they will know what to do on the get go. 

And if the micromanaging rumors are true, then I DEFINITELY don't want Brandon anywhere near the HC vacancy. We don't need Brady Hoke or another kind of Brady Hoke. 

Apparently Basketball seating is still the same disaster it was last year which may explain the good PR from the football ticket announcments, since they just happened to coincide on the same day. Someone correct me if I am wrong. Typical DB bullshit. 

Tater

October 20th, 2014 at 12:08 AM ^

If I was like the "Michigan Men" of the 2008-2010 era, I would cheer for Sparty to win so the housecleaning may happen sooner.  But I can't ever cheer for Michigan to lose a game.  

I hate that the program has gone down this far, but I am hoping for the "MIchigan Spoilermakers" to make an appearance.

East German Judge

October 20th, 2014 at 12:14 AM ^

So at least RichRod's offense (that one that won't work in the Big 10) scored 2 - 3 touchdowns per year vs. Sparty, while Coach "ManBall" has only 2 touchdown in his 3 years.  AWESOME!