2023 General Conference recruiting overview / trends = lack of parity
Was perusing the 247 top recruits list this morning, saw some things that piqued my interest and took a few (rough) notes to share.
Results were not great from an M-fan or B1G fan perspective.
People can debate regional and school bias, reliability of rankings etc. but most would agree that there is a line somewhere that includes the most-likely next NFL stars. That could be just 5-stars (top 35 this year), or top 50, top 100 etc. For my numbers I looked at just the top 100 on the 247 composite.
The B1G had a down year in recruiting particularly with the very top-ranked players. Period. 3 programs historically carry most of the weight in B1G recruiting --M had a down year overall (for reasons), OSU had a down year by their standards and PSU was average to good.
Numbers By conference
5-Stars -- SEC = 17, Big 12 = 7, P12 = 5, ACC = 4, B1G=1
Total Top 100 -- SEC = 46, Big 12 = 19, B1G = 13, P12 and ACC =10
This disparity actually gets WORSE if you count the defectors with their new conferences:
Numbers by NEW conference Alignment
5-stars -- SEC = 24, B1G and ACC = 4, P12 = 2, Big 12 =0
Top 100 -- SEC = 63, B1G = 18, ACC 10, P12 = 5, Big 12 = 3
In regard to recruiting SEC gets a better deal with OU (#4) and Texas (#3) than the B1G does with UCLA (#37 even with Dante Moore !?!) and USC (#12). With those two Big 12 schools added the new SEC includes 5 of the top 6 recruiting classes in the nation.
Unfortunately I do not see the balance of power changing any time soon, but do expect the disparity between the new SEC and B1G will narrow as NIL stabilizes across CFB and M regains some momentum in '24. I also expect UCLA and USC will keep more of the top CA talent away from the SEC with the added exposure coming from the B1G and maybe new blood in the B1G West will sway some top kids to the prairies. One can hope.
Misc. -
- Nyckoles Harbor would have been the top B1G recruit by 16 (!) spots.
- Miami's (YTM) big NIL push netted them a top 10 class but only netted them 2 5-stars and 2 other top 100 recruits.
-- OSU, PSU, M, and MSU signees represent 74% of the total 4-star recruits landed by the B1G (55/74)
-- Ranking Creep (?). There were a total of 446 recruits rated 4* or higherin the 2023 composite
-- Remember former LB commit Raylen Wilson? -- Finished a 5* #27 overall - one recruit that I feel the 2022 Harbaugh NFL stuff really hurt M on....
February 1st, 2023 at 4:47 PM ^
Would be interesting to see SEC minus UGA and Bama - suspect even with Tenn Fla and others it is pretty lopsided with those two. Transfer portal could end up really benefitting us in the end here with NIL and paying for actual college performance being much easier to fund and Michigan having a lot of funds looking for rational use
February 1st, 2023 at 4:51 PM ^
The problem with this thought process is Michigan is almost completely limited to grad transfers and Freshman transfers because Sophomore and Jr transfers credits won't be accepted in at an alarming rate.
February 1st, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
Haven't we already seen a dramatic increase in transfers from those classes though (including one from Neb)? I dont have anything beyond anecdotal evidence but it seems the restrictions are loosening from that perspective
February 1st, 2023 at 5:29 PM ^
I don't think being on campus for 1.5 years will be much of an issue for us. I expected it to be pretty easy to get transfers from true frosh and true sophs. Also, the Neb Lb only had one semester of credits to transfer. Easy.
February 2nd, 2023 at 6:50 AM ^
The answer is… Stanford and other AAU member institutions.
February 2nd, 2023 at 3:56 AM ^
Did a little digging myself.
According to 247 since 2010 to this 2023 class, i looked at just 5 stars that have committed to UM, OSU, Alabama, and Georgia. Pretty large disparity between the top two programs in the SEC and the top two in BIG.
since 2010 (as far back as 24/7 went);
UM (9), OSU (32), UA (63), UGA (49)
since 2015 (Jim Harbaugh’s first year);
UM (7), OSU (26), UA (43), UGA (38)
since 2016 (Kirby Smart’s first year);
UM (7), OSU (25), UA (37), UGA (35)
since 2019 (Ryan Day’s first year)
UM (4), OSU (16), UA (26), UGA (23)
Also kinda interesting - since 2010 Michigan has had nine 5 stars commit to the program. Alabama had 9 in this years class alone.
edit: SINCE 2010; PSU (9), ND (7), MSU (2)
February 2nd, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
When I think about how talented Michigan 5 stars have been, it makes me wonder how a team like Bama which pulls in 5+ 5 stars a year ever loses more than one game.
I know DPJ for instance was not a world beater, but imagine we had 3 or 4 more five stars in his class and certainly one would have been a first rounder.
I equate the outcome to the fun game we play on this board every year. "Which player in Michigan history would you add to make this team better".
Imagine if we had that extra Devin Bush (I think he was a four star) on this year's team. We probably don't lose to TCU! This is the difference. Except somehow Bama still loses 3 games and ends up in the Citrus Bowl.
February 1st, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^
-- Remember former LB commit Raylen Wilson? -- Finished a 5* #27 overall - one recruit that I feel the 2022 Harbaugh NFL stuff really hurt M on....
He decommited so long ago that if it was Harbaugh instability he would have reconsidered us. MacDonald left and the in-state national championship team came calling.
February 1st, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
Good post OP, interesting to see the breakdown by conference. I will disagree with you on Raylen Wilson though, it seems like NIL was a big factor along with Georgia just being able to generally pull whatever recruits on D that they want. Not sure the Harbaugh stuff was a big deal since it was mainly Helow that was driving that recruitment.
February 1st, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
Money wins all now a days...and SEC is clearly willing to break all the banks.
You really have stupid money when you dont care about ROI outside of your college team being good... weird world
February 1st, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^
Really? Because todays recruiting results are almost identical to pre-NIL. Geography is and always will be the most important aspect of the decision making process. Most of the elite athletes are from the SEC regions. Even if a recruit is from the BIG 10 region, the warm weather, pretty girls, and football craziness of the SEC will always be hard to beat. Our NIL program would have to be unrealistic to out-recruit UGA and AL consistently. Even OSU with their crazy NIL is having more trouble recently than you might expect. I’d recommend everyone attend a game at LSU, Tuscaloosa, TN, or even FSU.
February 1st, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
There’s just so much more talent in the south. Hopefully with the addition of USC and UCLA, more Cali kids will be venturing to the B10. Ohio and Pennsylvania are the only B10 states in the top ten as far as NFL players rostered.
February 1st, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
What’s weird is, as far as individual cities go, Detroit was number 1 for NFL players last year (or something like that).
So to add to the limited talent pool - the few big-time players that do come out the area, not a lock that they stay in-state either.
February 1st, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
Year-round football and training is more common in the south compared to Detroit. There is talent here, but it is harder to identify as players aren't as developed.
February 1st, 2023 at 6:43 PM ^
This past season, Detroit had the 3rd most active NFL players with 16 (Houston & Miami were tied at 1 w/ 19).
And declining population obviously has hurt local recruiting significantly more than anything else. The talent we do produce, gotta keep them.
February 1st, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^
Pennsylvania --- along with both Michigan & California too, for that matter --- index at less than 100 in terms of "currently active NFL players who went to High School in that state, on a per capita basis" versus "the country as a whole."
Both PA & CA rank in the top 10 on an absolute basis, but not on a relative basis.
FWIW, if I did the math right, here are the states by index (higher the index, more likely, relative to that state's population, an NFL player went to HS in said state). Big Ten states, current & future, in bold:
200+: LA (262), GA (253), AL (234), MS (209)
100-199: DC (159), FL (156), SC (136), MD (136), UT (126), TX (126), OH (123), IA (117), NJ (111), NC (110), VA (103)
80-99: TN (98), MO (97), HI (93), DE (92), ND (86), OR (85), CA (85), PA (83), OK (83), CT (81)
60-79: MI (79), IL (75), NE (75), MN (72), WI (70), AZ (69), WY (69), KS (64), NV (63)
Else (highest to least): SD, AR, CO, IN, KY, WA, MA, MT, ID, NY, WV, NM, RI, NH, ME, AK, VT
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Overall, that really highlights the uphill battle in the North. Top 6 states (excluding DC) are all SEC states. Even Ohio doesn't rank particularly high here, at least not as high as it used to.
The NJ to NC corridor has talent - the home state schools don't really keep that talent at home, though (the Garden most definitely has NOT been fenced).
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My sources:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/schools/high_schools.cgi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
February 1st, 2023 at 8:08 PM ^
Great data. Thanks for compiling and sharing.
February 2nd, 2023 at 7:02 AM ^
So, on a per capita basis, both Delaware and North Dakota have a higher talent density than Michigan. Is.my interpretation and perspective accurate, based on your data?
February 2nd, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
I do not think this is true. I just think their is more coverage/recruiting analysts in the south. Didn't rivals network at one time have 1 or zero midwest analysts, and like 8 southern analysts?
February 1st, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^
Thanks for putting together that info, it'll be interesting to see if NIL evens things out over time or if it'll just be more of the same.
February 1st, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
I don’t see why NIL would benefit the B1G or Michigan in particular more than the existing or old system. We will never match what the southern schools are paying beyond an odd player or two. To me it will just be more of the same.
February 2nd, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
Yeah, I'd agree, and there's just more talent in the south, more population growth in the south, better weather for year-round outdoor training in the south.
I guess my 'wondering' was more to do with the narrative that teams like Michigan could match the SEC year in and year out if we could just pay players legally, and now that era has arrived.
February 2nd, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
We mistakenly assumed that other teams with a history of breaking the rules would somehow adhere to the rules for NIL. Instead, we still handcuff ourselves, while places like Miami have been emboldened by the newfound freedom.
February 1st, 2023 at 6:23 PM ^
Michigan used to recruit near the top in the 70s through early 00's. Bo built a winning tradition that was highly attractive nationwide. But the recruiting game has changed so much, that today we are plagued by an administration and power brokers who just have no interest in stooping to the levels other power programs do to reach the top of the recruiting heap.
Our movers and shakers take pride in our academics first, football second. The OSUs, Bamas, Georgias, etc., of the world, suffer no such muddled pride in academics. They enjoy an unmuddled, singular interest in their football programs, suffering no debilitating balance of pride against academics or anything else. Thus what we see as slime, they see as easy, obvious, competitive advantage.
JH is no exception. He enjoys winning, but it is very clear that he finds the current state of college recruiting unsavory, and as a man of high integrity, is not particularly interested in stooping to the levels other programs stoop to. He also understands and likely respects that Michigan is not willing to stoop that low either. Thus it makes perfect sense as to why he snoops around the NFL, where he is not hamstrung by the competitive disadvantage that Michigan has found itself in year after year from RichRod's first year onwards.
The hope was that NIL would be an opportunity for Michigan to level the playing field, but we're very obviously not the 'leaders and best' in that regard. Miami, Oregon and Texas A&M seem to lead the NIL class. There is still time for Michigan to get it together, but my sense is, institutionally, there just isn't the same hunger there compared to the other powers for the same reasons mentioned above.
The last 2 years have been great. Absent something substantial changing, we should take extra enjoyment from them because we are very likely enjoying our ceiling for the foreseeable future.
February 1st, 2023 at 7:03 PM ^
Meh. So many of these kids taking the bag before stepping foot on campus will be transferring.
We need to have the best and highest paying NIL program for sophomores- seniors, not unproven freshmen.
Any kid that believes in himself and knows he will earn more @ UM once in a meaningful role, is the type of player you want committing out of HS or through the transfer portal.
We need to make sure our players are taken care of better than any others in the country-marketing, NIL, cash, etc…
but blowing NIL on HS kids…hasn’t worked out for A&M, Miami, Oregon yet.
February 2nd, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
People keep talking negatively about Michigan's NIL. I think it is more nuanced than simply Michigan is good or bad at it. I think the qualitative info we have indicates Michigan is actually pretty good at NIL, just maybe not the way many fans seem to want.
Based on the public comments from Harbaugh (and Warde), "transformational vs. transactional", I think Michigan has made a choice not to compete with the "Freshman signing bonus" part of NIL strategy. Texas A&M, Miami, Florida, Oregon are key examples of this NIL plan. I'm guessing Michigan's choice not to use this strategy is as much Harbaugh as anyone else. I'm guessing he thinks going this route will create significant locker room problems he doesn't want.
With all of the recent positive news about the interior O-line, Corum, Barrett, and others staying, I think that is a direct result of a top notch NIL program. Again, this seems like a Harbaugh driven strategy. I think he would rather have the top NIL dollars go to a 4th or 5th year player with experience in the system, or a transfer portal player who has already proven they can compete at the D1 level.
Will this strategy continue to frustrate the star gazers? Yep. Will it create a strong sustainable program going forward which wins on a regular basis? Probably. As a fan of wanting my favorite team to win on the field, I agree with Michigan's current strategy. I also think it is time to recognize this is probably as much Harbaugh's preference for running his program instead of incompetence on Warde's part.
February 2nd, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
We might not play the signing bonus game for high school kids, but I would have no problem if we played it for Portal transfers. Those players are a more proven, vetted commodity. You have a good idea of what you are going to get.
Is it "inducement" which is not supposed to be legal? Yeah, probably. But the NCAA can't / won't do anything about it. Inducement is rampant and unchecked in college football.
We can't be the only program that drives 55mph while all the others are blasting by us at 70mph while the cops just passively sit by and eat their doughnuts.
February 2nd, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
um is #2 in the country for average NIL dollars per player. it’s not nil that is the problem it’s just harbaugh isn’t consistently good @ recruiting. some of your classes have had 0 top 100 players where most of your game changers are. to me that’s just lazy recruiting especially @ a top national brand like UM. yet the last 2 years UM has been in the national conversation. he’s gotta recruit better to do that every year like bama,uga and osu are doing.
February 1st, 2023 at 7:16 PM ^
More like lack of PARTY!!!! WOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! LESGOOOOOOKO!!!!!
February 1st, 2023 at 7:29 PM ^
My opinion, now and forever until it happens: I want Brian Hartline to get the hell out of Columbus.
February 1st, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
The bagmen were always there and everyone knew it.
the recruiting landscape has been shifting both from this but also the broader migration southwards.
NIL was a chance to try to bring some light into the shadows of recruiting
A lot of schools were already doing this 'below the table', so they were able to move pretty quickly in adopting NIL... Michigan has not moved quickly and, as a result, is falling further behind in recruiting, even after two consecutive CFB playoff appearances
February 2nd, 2023 at 7:13 AM ^
Exactly. NIL made brown bagging legal (but NIL deals are taxable). If you had a strong brown bag program - the transition to NIL wa# quick and easy. So, which schools around the country had effective brown bag programs?
I think you can start with most SEC member institutions.
Oh, FWIW, i think there’s still a lot of brown begging going on.
The difference between the two - brown bagging and NIL? Taxes…
February 2nd, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
NIL stands for Now It's Legal.
February 1st, 2023 at 8:36 PM ^
Why are we even considered about this? The NCAA has basically created a system where a 17 year old male has to choose from the following options:
A. Millions of dollars and no schoolwork
B. Schoolwork and a few bucks for pizza
I know which one the 17 year old me was choosing, all day long and twice on Sunday.
February 1st, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^
C. Big trouble for free hamburgers
February 2nd, 2023 at 7:08 AM ^
Just look at North Carolina academics for athletes. There was no confusion, academics aren’t even consideration.
February 2nd, 2023 at 7:43 AM ^
I read an SI cover story on this years ago and it was absolutely appalling. Some of the student couldn't read. Several of the students featured wanted to get an education and either weren't allowed to take real classes or were highly discouraged from taking them.
Players everywhere, including Michigan, take some softball classes. (At some schools literally.) But North Carolina was beyond the pale.
FWIW--Cardale Jones "We ain't come here to play school" tweet is at least evidence that OSU tries to send its athletes to class even if they are all online classes.
Evidently his tweet is in a text book about bad social media practices.
February 2nd, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^
“No use steering now.”
-Doug McKenzie
February 2nd, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
The Portal can help be an equalizer. All that over-concentrated 4/5 star recruiting that starts off in the SEC . . . won't all stay in the SEC.
Many of those players will bolt for greener pastures, much of it outside the SEC.
We are seeing this already as even schools like Northwestern pick up 4/5 star talent they could never recruit.
February 2nd, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
+1 just for the correct spelling of "piqued"