What did you expect? A look back
Amongst the handwringing and angst following the Wisconsin loss, there seems to be two distinct camps. First is the "Woe is me - fire everyone on offense" group The second is the "What did you expect - everyone thought this before the season" group.
I was kind of in the middle with one foot securely in the "We saw this coming" camp. This got me to thinking, what did we really believe before the season. I checked back on the three biggest prediction links I could find: The Athlon Prediction (LINK), the CFP Prediction (LINK), and the Front Page Preseason Predictions (LINK).
I was surprised, shocked even, to see the level of faith there was in this team. I did not see the warnings that people are now claiming to have had. I put together two charts, the first being individual predictions (I took the liberty of interpreting some comments based on the thread), and the second being people who saw Michigan in the College Football Playoffs. Even Brian saw the season as a 10-2 to 12-0 outcome.
It was kind of fun to read the predictions, although heartbreaking in a way. One theme was how bad Penn State sucked and that our 39 point victory in 2016 would be eclipsed despite playing them in Happy Valley, at night, during a white-out. People universally thought McSorley could not armpunt his way to any kind of winning season and that Barkley was a sham who could be stopped without a succesful passing attack. Another theme was how bad MSU would be this year with DrMantisToboggan predicting them to go winless but with a 6-6 ceiling as a possibility. Of course MeanJoe07 made fart noises, but what else would you expect?
Chart 1 - Your season prediction (some added a bowl result while others didn't)
Poster | W | L |
JWG Wolverine | 10 | 2 |
not TOM BRADY | 11 | 1 |
SoDak Blues | 11 | 1 |
Duval Wolverine | 11 | 1 |
Alton | 9 | 3 |
stephenrjking | 9 | 3 |
UM Fan from Sydney | 11 | 1 |
ZoltanSmash | 10 | 2 |
Blue Know It | 10 | 2 |
uminks | 9 | 3 |
Ron Utah | 9 | 3 |
Tater | 10 | 3 |
UMAmaizinBlue | 9 | 4 |
BlueKoj | 10 | 2 |
SpikeFan2016 | 10 | 2 |
maize-blue | 10 | 2 |
HimJarbaugh | 10 | 2 |
jdemille9 | 9 | 3 |
Ty Butterfield | 8 | 4 |
markusr2007 | 9 | 3 |
Tuebor | 10 | 2 |
Kevin13 | 9 | 3 |
AA Forever | 9 | 3 |
CarrisMyHomeboy | 9 | 3 |
Perkis-Size Me | 12 | 0 |
Woodstock Wolverine | 12 | 0 |
mgobob | 10 | 2 |
rainingmaize | 10 | 3 |
SC Wolverine | 12 | 1 |
GoBlueInAlabama | 11 | 1 |
Mr. Yost | 11 | 1 |
Couzen Rick's | 11 | 1 |
brad | 11 | 1 |
Rabbit21 | 7 | 5 |
jabberwock | 9 | 3 |
TC Wolverine | 9 | 3 |
Charlie Bauman | 12 | 2 |
SagNasty | 12 | 0 |
Wolverine91 | 11 | 1 |
WolverineinDallas | 10 | 2 |
Qmatic | 11 | 1 |
Harbaugh's Left Elbow | 10 | 2 |
Zarniwoop | 10 | 2 |
Go for two | 11 | 1 |
BrownJuggernaut | 10 | 2 |
Apureidiot | 12 | 1 |
MGoBlog worst case | 8 | 4 |
MGoBlog best case | 12 | 0 |
champswest | 8 | 4 |
mgoblue98 | 12 | 0 |
Crime Reporter | 8 | 4 |
Swayze Howell Sheen | 12 | 0 |
MichiganTeacher | 12 | 0 |
List 1 - List of posters predicting Michigan in the CFP
Apureidiot |
Bodogblog |
Braylon_Edwards_Backflip |
DrMantisToboggan |
EastCoat |
Go for two |
Hotel Putingrad |
Jack Hammer |
joeyb |
Leroys Horde |
M_Born M_Believer |
MadMatt |
mgoblue98 |
MichiganSports |
MichiganTeacher |
MIGHTYMOJO91 |
Mr. Yost |
Perkis-Size Me |
reddogrjw |
SagNasty |
SC Wolverine |
swan flu |
Swayze Howell Sheen |
WestSider |
Wolverine91 |
Woodstock Wolverine |
YoOoBoMoLloRoHo |
Zeke21 |
My conclusions? We weren't as rationale as I remembered. I expected to see more 8-4 predictions and they really weren't there. On the bright side, there were a number of Mr. Yost postings where he shared information he was hearing from the Submarine and they turned out to be incredibly accurate. It may pay to listen to this man in the future about position groups and individual players (but not his CFP predictions).
Go Blue! Beat the Bucks!
November 20th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
Suggestion:
:s/rationale/rational
November 20th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^
Thanks for that rationale, insightfule, helpfulle commente, Jaspere. I'll let you edit for typos next time.
November 20th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^
this is great work you did- the internet really IS unforgiving in that everything becomes public record and can be checked- upvoted
November 20th, 2017 at 3:50 PM ^
Thanks MonkeyMan. I did lose my average on the predictions column for some reason, but someone fixed it later in the thread.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^
I see a lot of 2 and 3 loss predictions in there, which I think is fair. This is a 2 or 3 loss team with the starting QB playing all season. I think it's reasonable to add 1 or 2 losses on top of that for losing him and other key players.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:49 PM ^
the 4 point loss to MSU would have been a win with Speight. I think it would have changed M's game plan/play calling.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^
This is fake news. Everyone predicted 8-4 as our season record. /s
November 20th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^
Some people actually did pick 8-4 assuming Speight would be healthy. Now imagine what the predictions would be like if you told everyone Speight would be out for the season after week 4. I think you'd see some predictions even worse than 8-4.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:47 PM ^
Excel average is 10.15 wins and 1.98 losses. So not many 8-4 predictions...
Speight was widely blamed as the cause of our offensive stagnation in September and O'Korn coming in and tearing up Purdue was offered up as proof.
November 20th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^
Yes, but we're talking about predictions that were made before the season. Plus, I think we all know now why Speight was starting.
And I didn't say a lot of people picked 8-4. Some did. That shows there were people down on this team even before the injuries.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:03 PM ^
But if the fanbase is clammoring for Peters in August can you really say they'd change their prediction if they knew Speight was going to miss the latter 2/3 of the season? People wanted him benched. It wasn't until O'Korn looked horrible against MSU that people realized how important Speight was.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^
The fanbase was not clammoring for Peters before the season. He had his fans, no doubt. But all of that was based on the spring game. No reasonable fan actually expected him to play, especially after Harbaugh said JOK was 2nd string.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:16 PM ^
Just like no "reasonable fan" predicted better than 8-4?
November 20th, 2017 at 2:39 PM ^
Okay, we're talking in circles now. I already said 2 or 3 loss predictions were reasonable.
November 20th, 2017 at 5:05 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^
I said 10 - 2
November 20th, 2017 at 2:29 PM ^
I predicted 10-2. I really thought going .500 in their 4 toughest game wasn't too crazy of an idea. We are now staring at 8-4, unless a huge upset occurs, and to me that is the worst case scenario for the season. Yuk.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:41 PM ^
Losing our top WR and being on our 3rd string QB may be a contributing factor.
November 20th, 2017 at 3:47 PM ^
Urban won a NC with a 3rd stringer- no the problem is much bigger
November 21st, 2017 at 9:51 AM ^
Yep, he did, but his second string was an exceptional talent and played for the entire regular season and his third stringer wasn't a Freshman like ours is. Cardale Jones had multiple years in Meyer's system - this is only BP's second year here and Coach Harbaugh is also relatively new here and still installing his system and getting all of the players to be his recruits.
Not a fair comparison at all.
November 20th, 2017 at 4:04 PM ^
Yep. I thought we'd beat Florida and MSU for sure. Then split PSU/Wisconsin and lose to OSU.
Good news is that we are guaranteed to beat a bowl team as 5-6 Purdue plays 5-6 Indiana this weekend.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^
This is a little unfair, because most people, like MGoBlog, had a range of expectations. And I wouldn't be surprised if this chart represents posters' most optimistic projections, rather than what they thought was most likely.
That being said, people have been cherry picking recently to say that they expected 8-4. The reality is that 8-4 was their floor, not necessarily their actual expectation. And the difference between one win or loss this season is the difference between a bad and fine season.
November 21st, 2017 at 4:54 PM ^
It's not exactly cherry picking, it's just that there isn't a real metric here. You touched on it, but I think it's very significant for this that what you type on a blog to strangers does not necessarily reflect your actual expectations.
I expected we'd be 8-4 and after Florida I expected 9-3. But it's more fun to be optimistic and I would have been more likely to say we have a chance at 10-2 or 11-1.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:42 PM ^
I predicted 9-3. The only surprise for me was MSU. I figured we'd lose @PSU, @Wisconsin, and vs OSU. I thought 10-2 if we had a lucky bounce somewhere along the way. We aren't really underperforming that much as a whole, but the offense has left much to be desired - for many reasons.
November 20th, 2017 at 2:46 PM ^
1. Thought the offense would be better and also very different. I bought into the 'Pep is bringing 5 wide spread passing concepts' Koolaid. Nope.
2. Thought the corners would be a problem. Did not see how the D would work as well without a total shutdown corner (Lewis). Turned out to be a really strong position group, perhaps second only to the d-line.
3. Thought Penn State would regress (hence I predicted a M win).
4. Thought we would beat MSU. Shoulda beat MSU. But terrible game plan. 5 turnovers. Monsoon.
5. Thought 10-2 was most likely (based in above incorrect predictions), then 9-3 next most likely based on dropping a game that we should have won, such as IU or MSU).
November 20th, 2017 at 3:49 PM ^
I compliment you on your honesty
November 20th, 2017 at 3:59 PM ^
After beating Florida soundly (back when people thought Florida was going to be good this year), I was leaning to 11-1.
Geez. Seems like ten years ago and it was only early September.
November 20th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^
When Brian does his season preview, he phrases his worst case as "not counting massive injury issues". I feel like we're approaching that territory now. First string QB out. Second string QB ineffective. Third string QB out. Early leading reciever out. Two most veteran recievers nagged by injuries. Two of top three tailbacks nagged by injuries. I know every team has to deal with them, but we don't have the depth right now to plug and play.
November 20th, 2017 at 4:00 PM ^
had any meaningful injuries this year?
November 20th, 2017 at 4:11 PM ^
There's only so much reading about Ohio State I can stomach in an effort to answer that question. However, it looks like they have a starting lineman on each side of the ball out for the year, plus a couple other injuries.
November 20th, 2017 at 5:28 PM ^
we can start comparing where Michigan's depth should be in relation to OSU's. In the midst of year three, nah.
November 20th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
Great post. I think some of the frustration we're feeling isn't just how the season is ending compared with preseason expectations, but rather how it's ending compared to expectations after Week 1 vs. Florida. When we destroyed Florida in the second half, I had high hopes for this year. I didn't realize that Florida was garbage, our defense looked like world beaters, and our offense looked functional.
November 20th, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^
we could be 7-4 if not for Florida
nice to know others suffer worse
November 20th, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^
i think the expectations truly ramped up after the Florida game. Knowing what we know now about Florida, Cincinnati, Air Force... sigh.
November 20th, 2017 at 3:33 PM ^
Excerpted from B1G Expectations Preseason Redux post on Aug. 13:
With the exodus of so much talent and experience from Team 137, it appears that the fancy-stats love affair with Michigan under Harbaugh has come to an end. The most likely records range from 9-3 (S&P+) to 7-5 (the Power Rank), but with a slight lean in the PR distribution toward 8 wins. Michigan gets just a modest beneficial effect from its schedule (w.r.t. the PR distribution), as the games break to an 8-4 (5-4) record. Michigan is favored by double-digits in 8 games by both S&P+ and FPI, but in only 5 games by PR. PR also shows M with margins of less than one score in 5 games, which means volatility. Florida, Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State at this point are favored by PR with UM being more than a one-score dog to PSU and Wisconsin. The opener against Florida looks like one of the closest matchups on the season, and so will be critical from the standpoint of getting UM off the schneid and setting the tone for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, the tussle with fellow bubble team Indiana is M’s tightest match of the year, with a margin of only 1.6 points.
Here are some sobering statistical observations:
- Chances of Michigan improving on last season (i.e. winning 11 or more): 1-12%.
- Chances of a Michigan losing season: less than 2% to about 11%.
- Chances of Michigan going undefeated: less than 2%.
tl;dr:
- S&P: 9-3 (6-3)
- PR: 8-4 (6-3)
- FPI: 8-4 (6-3)
November 20th, 2017 at 3:42 PM ^
Next year ain't lookin' too hot right now- JH struggles on the road against good teams- 9-3 may be the ceiling with 7-5 as the floor
November 20th, 2017 at 5:02 PM ^
I'm not too sure about that. This team is not going to lose many players, all while growing a year older and better, while doing it together.
While Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State are all on the road, the schedule actually breaks down in a more favorable manner. Yes, Notre Dame to start the season but then they don't leave Ann Arbor, finishing OOC with Western Michigan and SMU and opening Big Ten play again Nebraska until heading to Evanston. Maryland the following week before the toughest two week stretch in my mind, Wisconsin at home and Michigan State in EL. Off week right before Penn State and then @Rutgers and home to Indiana before The Game.
Even with those three tough road games, not as bad as it could be.
November 20th, 2017 at 7:42 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 7:49 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^
those are eerily accurate. Making a fancy-stats believer out of me!
November 20th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^
Well I certainly was wearing my maize colored glasses that day...
November 20th, 2017 at 5:52 PM ^
you should correlate this against our "points" totals - you know, to see if "more points" means "more wisdom".
That said, I always pick undefeated, because I am a hometown slappy.
November 20th, 2017 at 7:26 PM ^
Thanks for puncturing the "Hey, everybody knew we were going to be 8-4" revisionist horseshit.
November 20th, 2017 at 7:40 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:14 PM ^
I did not submit a prediction because I wasn't willing to put anything less than division champions in writing and I don't like being foolish. I dismissed all 12-0 predictions as either homerism (I get it) or woefully biased. I am sure many of us assumed we would have a slightly improved Wilton Speight for the whole season.
I did pay attention to those who said 9-3 and 11-2 with a hope to split Wisconsin and PSU as tough road games and then losing to the safety net school of central Ohio. Many suspected the occurrence of an unexpected loss. I congratulate MSU for grinding out another victory but I didn't expect it and I don't think they could count on 5 turnovers and a key holding call if the game were played again. Our Wolverines were on their way to victory over Wisconsin before attrition set in. (Sometimes the deeper team wins.) My personal opinion is that the September Wolverines would win in Madison 2 of 3 times. But no one should care about that.
I was really taken in by the Don Brown bandwagon. After reading several articles on how great Don Brown's defenses are in year two regardless of class rank and experience I was rather stunned that anyone scored on the Wolverines at all. I attributed early scores on poor offensive performance putting the defense in bad positions. Little did I grasp that even Don Brown and Greg Mattison with Mone, Gary, Hurst, and Bush cannot stop all offenses all the time. I should have known better as advanced stats don't lie.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:16 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 10:00 PM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 10:01 AM ^
November 21st, 2017 at 4:56 PM ^
Someone should do this kind of post for Florida and FSU fans. That could be fun.
November 21st, 2017 at 5:38 PM ^
We are FANS, after all, which means we have all the objectivity of a bunch of 14 year-old girls lined up for a boy band show. So what if we went in wildly over-optimistic? That's kind of what we're supposed to do. At the same time, we need to have a little perspective when things don't work out. This shit is supposed to be fun. Don't jump off a bridge when a game we have ZERO control over doesn't go as hoped. Screaming "UNACCEPTABLE!!!" ain't gonna change anything.
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