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UConn, last year and this year

By chunkums — March 10th, 2010 at 2:45 PM — 50 comments
Based on comments I've seen on the boards, it seems that not too many people are familiar with the University of Connecticut football team.  A great deal of people believe that this game is an absolute must-win in order for Rodriguez to have any sort of credibility.  While I do believe it would be an important win, UConn is by no means a cupcake opponent.

First, lets take a look at 2009.



Difference of 10 gets a 1 letter advantage
Difference of 50 gets a 2 letter advantage
Difference of 90 gets a 3 letter advantage

Final Sagarin Rankings: 

Uconn: 28

UM: 81 (EEK!)


Now on to 2010!

Departing Contributors Offense:

UConn:

HB Andre Dixon: 2nd leading rusher on team.  Start still in place.
WR Brad Canuch:  3rd leading receiver on team. Top 2 receivers still in place.
LT Dan Ryan: Followed by a RS Sophomore
RT Mike Hicks:  Followed by a RS Junior

Top QB, 3 WR's, and HB all return

UM:

HB Brandon Minor: Leading rusher on team.  Most likely replaced by a sophomore.
HB Carlos Brown: 2nd leading rusher on team.  Most likely replaced by a sophomore.
WR Greg Matthews:  2nd leading receiver on team.  Top receiver still in place.
OL Mark Ortmann: Replaced by ?
C David Mooseman (he played it most of the year): Replaced by original starter


Departing Contributors, Defense:

Uconn:

DE Lindsey Whitten:  Replaced by a redshirt senior.
CB Robert McClain: Replaced by a redshirt sophomore.
CB Jasper Howard (deceased): Replaced by a redshirt sophomore
FS Robert Vaught:  Replaced by a true sophomore.

UM:

DE Brandom Graham: Replaced by redshirt junior (RVB)
LB Stevie Brown:  Replaced by true freshman (?)
CB Donovan Warren:  Replaced by reshirt or true freshman


How was UConn last year?

Last year, UConn  finished 8-5 after in a rather odd season.  That record may not, however, be indicative of their talent level, as following the death of starting CB Jasper Howard, they went on a three game slide.  During two of these games, the Huskies thoroughly outgained the opposing teams.  The third, however, was a three point loss to top 5 Cincinnati after being statistically dominated.  Like Michigan, the Huskies barely edged out Notre Dame, and munched on delicious cuppy cakes for many of their victories.  Unlike Michigan, however, Uconn went bowling and beat the South Carolina Gamecocks in a strange and ugly game.

How will UConn be this year?

UConn is a team very similar to Michigan this year when it comes to personnel.  They will be returning nearly all of their offensive firepower from a team which had a solid rushing attack and an OK passing attack in Big East play.  Look for them to take a step up offensively this year, as UConn seems to be a program on the rise based on previous years.  The similarities between Michigan and UConn don't stop on the offensive side of the ball.  Like Michigan, much of the Connecticut secondary will be untested and young.   Where Michigan lost players to the draft and team ejection, Connecticut lost theirs due to graduation and unfortunately, murder.

Prediction Based on ridiculously early evidence?


Michigan wins in a shootout.  Many people are writing off this game as an almost certain win, but it very well could be one of the scariest games on the schedule.  UConn will be a  good team if their defensive players develop and the offense lives up to its potential.  Still, I just don't see the Big East offensive linemen creating any holes against Martin and the boys for their pro-style offense.  With our Freshman quarterback no longer being a Freshman, and our two best receivers finally being on the field at the same time, I see UM's offense improving more than Uconn's.  Plus, Richrod owns Randy Edsall.


 
2004: WVU 27-6
2005:  WVU 45- 13
2006:  WVU 37-11
2007: WVU 66-21


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March 10th, 2010 at 2:45 PM | Odd, I hit preview and it (Score:1)
chunkums
chunkums's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8900

Odd, I hit preview and it posted...

For today, goodbye. For tomorrow, good luck. And forever, Go Blue.

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March 10th, 2010 at 3:12 PM | do you think these numbers (Score:1)
sheepman
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Joined: 02/05/2009
MGoPoints: 1256

do you think these numbers are skewed by toughness of schedule?

I hope so.

"Are you Bluish? You don't look Bluish..."

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March 10th, 2010 at 3:17 PM | I absolutely think so... but (Score:1)
chunkums
chunkums's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8900

I absolutely think so... but on both ends. 60 of our points came against Delaware State. Still, I'd take your average B10 team over your average Big East team any day.

For today, goodbye. For tomorrow, good luck. And forever, Go Blue.

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March 10th, 2010 at 3:27 PM | UConn (Score:1)
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 8977

Crappy conference: overrated team. The undefeated Big East champion, Cincinnati, got blown out by the worst Florida team since Tebow's sophomore year.

They are a great basketball conference, but they aren't that great a football conference since RR left. UM will go back to being an upper-level Big Ten team this year. UConn will be a mid-to-upper level Big East team. UConn won't be a MAC walkover, but Michigan would have to play very far beneath their talent level for UConn to beat them.

I don't see that happening.

http://tinfoilhatsportsblog.blogspot.com/

 

 

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March 15th, 2010 at 1:07 AM | I get your sentiment, and (Score:1)
RagingBean
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Joined: 10/29/2008
MGoPoints: 926

I get your sentiment, and might even agree with it but for that first line. "The worst Florida team since Tebow's Sophomore year." You mean two years ago? When they won 9 games. And I mean, worst is a really relative scale here. We are still discussing a team that went 13-1. It's not like they were a shocking disappointment of a squad, like say the Michigan team from Tebow's Sophomore year.

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March 10th, 2010 at 3:34 PM | UCONN not a cupcake (Score:1)
jimmymin
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Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 45

I totally agree that the UCONN game is not a cupcake. They've had some pretty decent rushing statistics the last few years, though I guess the question remains how the HB and OL replacements will fair. Hopefully our D-line will be up to the task and our LBs will show some substantial improvement in 2010.

I'm really hoping that 1 D-Coordinator over 2 years will have some impact! Come on Gerg! Do a Stevie Brown on them!

Jimmy GO BLUE!

Denard smiles through your soul!

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March 10th, 2010 at 3:37 PM | Nervous (Score:1)
Baldbill
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Joined: 04/09/2009
MGoPoints: 1659

I will be honest, this game makes me nervous. I think this is a big game for lots of reasons and Michigan needs to be ready for them.

Semper Fidelis

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March 10th, 2010 at 3:45 PM | UConn is a somewhat favorable (Score:1)
Hannibal.
Hannibal.'s picture
Joined: 09/09/2008
MGoPoints: 2229

UConn is a somewhat favorable matchup for Michigan, since Randy Edsall isn't the type to air it out every down and take advantage of Michigan's extremely young secondary. But I still expect us to lose this one. Regardless, I don't think that it's necessary to point out that UConn isn't a cupcake anymore, since they might be a slight favorite in this game when the line comes out.

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March 10th, 2010 at 3:51 PM | word (Score:1)
Moe Greene
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Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 2033

This is not Baby Seal U.
Have no doubt Coach knows how much we need a good old fashioned ass-whuppin' in the Big House.
We will be ready.

No radio. Nothing of value.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:03 PM | Sorry to nit pick but you do (Score:1)
GBOD79
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Joined: 07/14/2009
MGoPoints: 2980

Sorry to nit pick but you do know that that animal is a coyote and not a husky right?

Those who stay will be champions!

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:05 PM | Yeah, but I'm pretty sure (Score:1)
chunkums
chunkums's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8900

Yeah, but I'm pretty sure husky hunting is illegal since they are domesticated and all.

For today, goodbye. For tomorrow, good luck. And forever, Go Blue.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:10 PM | Thats a valid point. Hunting (Score:1)
GBOD79
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Joined: 07/14/2009
MGoPoints: 2980

Thats a valid point. Hunting husky would be too easy, no sport involved.

Those who stay will be champions!

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March 11th, 2010 at 1:04 PM | Here boy, here boy! That's a (Score:1)
victors2000
victors2000's picture
Joined: 03/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2159

Here boy, here boy! That's a good boy...BANG!

You have to play this game like somebody just hit your mother with a two-by-four. ~Dan Birdwell

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March 11th, 2010 at 8:12 AM | Cue the Freep (Score:1)
maizenbluenc
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Joined: 07/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2344

From anonymous Internet sources, the Freep has found that Rich Rod returns to his West Virginian roots, goes hunting, and kills dogs, possibly setting off a PETA demonstration on the Diag. He apparently consulted with Michael Vick first. In an exclusive interview with Terrelle Pryor, the former recruit offers support for Rich: "Not everybody’s the perfect person in the world. I mean everyone kills … murders ... whatever."

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:07 PM | UConn (Score:1)
snowcrash
Joined: 07/22/2008
MGoPoints: 1360

If this game were at UConn I think they would be favored. I think we'll have the edge only because we're at home and because teams coming off disappointing seasons often get way up for their first real game of the year. A loss wouldn't surprise me at all, but my best guess is that we win something like 31-24.

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March 10th, 2010 at 5:57 PM | UConn't (Score:1)
jonny_GoBlue
jonny_GoBlue's picture
Joined: 09/05/2009
MGoPoints: 4340

Even if this game were at UConn I think we would be favored. I think we'll have the edge because we're awesome and because 2010/11 is the year of redemption. A loss would tear apart the fabric of space/time, so my best guess is that we win something like 310 - -24.

Fixed your post. :)

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:17 PM | You forgot to mention that (Score:1)
aaamichfan
aaamichfan's picture
Joined: 10/23/2009
MGoPoints: 14085

You forgot to mention that UConn is losing Marcus Easley, who had 900 receiving yards last year and is projected to be a decently high NFL draft pick.

I believe this game will be a shootout, and the readiness of our young secondary players will determine whether it is a W or L.

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March 11th, 2010 at 1:43 PM | Right on (Score:1)
spam and beans
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 13

I don't think Uconn will be able to run the ball. But in my thinking, they might not have to. Our secondary is extremely young. Uconn's secondary is also very young. Which secondary will get it together the fastest will be the winner. Anyone else worried about special teams? Freshman starting at punter and kicking field goals can't be a great thing.

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March 10th, 2010 at 5:36 PM | i feel like Randy Edsel would (Score:1)
tripp welborne ...
tripp welborne identity's picture
Joined: 10/29/2009
MGoPoints: 7198

i feel like Randy Edsel would be a good name for a character in the XXX version of "Cars."

Auwê ka hua`i lâ

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:24 PM | Great. The trepidation on the (Score:1)
jg2112
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Joined: 11/25/2008
MGoPoints: 5501

Great. The trepidation on the board is reverting to the fear everyone had of Western Michigan, a 9-game winner in 2008.

Michigan is going to win this game. They will have too much talent on the field, regardless of age, and enough of the talent will have experience required to beat the Huskies.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:27 PM | MAC (Score:1)
chunkums
chunkums's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8900

MAC

For today, goodbye. For tomorrow, good luck. And forever, Go Blue.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:30 PM | Uh, Big East. (Score:1)
jg2112
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Joined: 11/25/2008
MGoPoints: 5501

Uh, Big East.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:37 PM | The Big East is the weakest (Score:1)
chunkums
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8900

The Big East is the weakest BCS conference, but it is still a BCS conference. The MAC is not, and for very good reason. The top MAC teams routinely get smeared by BCS opponents. I'm not saying we're going to lose; I'm just saying that the arrogance some of us have with regards to who we 'will' beat is a bit off.

For today, goodbye. For tomorrow, good luck. And forever, Go Blue.

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March 11th, 2010 at 12:11 AM | Final 2009 Sagarin ratings: UConn 28, Mich 81 (Score:1)
Muttley
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Joined: 07/07/2009
MGoPoints: 3603

Yep, our main concern is overconfidence.

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March 13th, 2010 at 4:48 AM | I certainly remember being (Score:1)
GreyJello
Joined: 02/17/2009
MGoPoints: 525

I certainly remember being quite nervous for that Western game. First time in 25 years of Michigan fandom was I nervous about a home opener.

I'm sure I'll be nervous for this one, too. Hopefully, when RR and company get this machine humming at 100%, there will be no more reason to be nervous.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:38 PM | UConn Game (Score:1)
mgovictors23
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Joined: 05/03/2009
MGoPoints: 91

I think the atmosphere is going to be crazy with the Big House being done and I think we have to much speed for Connecticut to be honest. I think we will get the win but I will be nervous watching the game.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:43 PM | Edsall (Score:1)
MFDoom_
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Joined: 02/19/2010
MGoPoints: 234

Check out the ESPN big east blog from march 8th. There's an interview with Edsall and I gotta say that the guy and UConn scare me a bit. I know rich rod has dominated UConn in the past but these guys are gonna come to play.

I truly believe that Michigan is going to get back on track next year but if UConn comes in and beats us in the big house I'll be preparing myself for another season of misery.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:47 PM | No cupcake (Score:1)
Wolverine3927
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Joined: 08/28/2009
MGoPoints: 41

This game scares the hell out of me . . . forget about how tough the Big East is, this isn't a bad team. And there will be so much pressure to win on both the Michigan coaches and the players. Going on the road to ND in week 2 and potentially starting 0-2 would create pressure like there's never been in Ann Arbor before.

Let's just hope the atmosphere and supportive crowd in the Big House along with superior talent are enough to make up for the pressure and Michigan's relative lack of experience. It should be a great home opener.

The Team. The Team. The Team.

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March 10th, 2010 at 4:58 PM | Honestly, Notre Dame doesn't (Score:1)
chunkums
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8900

Honestly, Notre Dame doesn't scare me all that much next year. They still have no defense, and will be breaking in a brand new QB (Christe may or may not be healthy), and an almost entirely new offensive line.

For today, goodbye. For tomorrow, good luck. And forever, Go Blue.

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March 10th, 2010 at 5:53 PM | If we were playing Notre Dame (Score:1)
aaamichfan
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Joined: 10/23/2009
MGoPoints: 14085

If we were playing Notre Dame at the end of the season, I'd be a bit worried. However, there is just no way they are able to compete by game 2.

Having a starting QB out for spring practice while trying to learn a new system doesn't usually translate to early on-field success.

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March 15th, 2010 at 1:02 AM | I read this and I know it (Score:1)
RagingBean
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Joined: 10/29/2008
MGoPoints: 926

I read this and I know it makes sense, but that doesn't remove the images of Brian Kelly turning every QB he touches into gold from my head. I would not be surprised if I barfed from nerves before these games, and I never, never chuck it.

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March 10th, 2010 at 5:07 PM | I'm not trying to belittle (Score:1)
willywill9
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Joined: 09/22/2008
MGoPoints: 10283

I'm not trying to belittle our opponent, but I think Michigan wins this game by 2 TD's.

Touchdown Michigan!

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March 10th, 2010 at 5:37 PM | UCONN/Edsall/RR (Score:1)
SysMark
Joined: 11/15/2008
MGoPoints: 5397

I am all Blue but have lived in Connecticut for 20 years and have followed UCONN closely.

One point worth noting. UCONN didn't move to Division 1-A in football until 2000 and did not join the Big East until 2004. RR "owned" Edsall when UCONN was basically starting their program - wouldn't put too much stock in that one. Edsall deserves a lot of credit for sticking with the program while they obviously struggled and is reaping the rewards. UCONN's recruiting classes are ranked nowhere near the top teams they have either beaten or been competitive with. He is a very good coach and very popular here.

I believe we should win the game but they will show up to play.

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March 10th, 2010 at 6:15 PM | UConn still tied for the Big (Score:1)
MGoLouisville
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Joined: 01/13/2010
MGoPoints: 639

UConn still tied for the Big East title in 2007 and went to bowls in two of those four years. I know they weren't really a big time program but they were further ahead than most when moving up to big time football.

I'm going to treat you all the same. Like dogs. - Bo

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March 10th, 2010 at 6:11 PM | I am terrified of this (Score:1)
hausoian
Joined: 01/11/2009
MGoPoints: -651

I am terrified of this matchup. UConn will run the ball relentlessly, so our defensive line and linebackers will have to come together quickly. Campbell, Martin, Roh, and RVB will have the spotlight on them throughout fall camp as they'll be tested very early. My fear, though, is more about play action getting over the top of of the linebackers much like it did during the Wisconsin game.

In my opinion, though, there is a difference in physicality between Big Ten and Big East teams. I have hope in our defensive line and linebackers since we return a lot of experience in the front seven. If we aren't dominating the trenches by the second half I would be worried.

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March 10th, 2010 at 6:17 PM | Real nice breakdown. I (Score:1)
bronxblue
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 11130

Real nice breakdown.

I thought this UConn game would be tough from the day it was announced, and nothing I saw last year from either team changes that opinion. UConn would well be a top-25 team at the start of next year, and will certainly not be afraid about playing UM to start the season. This will be the marquee OOC game for both teams, and I agree that it will be one of those shoot-out wins, hopefully with the good guys coming out on top.

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March 10th, 2010 at 6:30 PM | We will win, but I'm scared shitless (Score:1)
Crime Reporter
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Joined: 12/19/2008
MGoPoints: 7946

I think we are going to come out firing on all cylinders, similar to the showing against Western Michigan. That being said, I'm still scared. We should win, but that means nothing.

They mostly come at night... mostly.

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March 10th, 2010 at 7:39 PM | As long as our offense (Score:1)
goblue1327
Joined: 10/14/2009
MGoPoints: 147

As long as our offense improves as much as it should and we can HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL I think we should win this game. UConn will certainly be able to score on us, but from what I've seen they are the type of team that likes to pound the ball up the middle, and I feel like our defensive line should at least hold them in check. The keys will be Mouton and Ezeh not getting lost on play action or cutback runs and our young secondary containing big plays.

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March 10th, 2010 at 8:11 PM | UCONN scares the sweet zombie Jesus outta me. (Score:1)
bluewave720
Joined: 07/17/2009
MGoPoints: 794

Not to be annoyingly sensationalistic, but Michigan will be playing against a team likely ranked in/near the top 25 and loaded with experience in a game that could not only have significantly crushing ramifications on the season, but also the future of RR at Michigan.

I can't help feeling this way. There is just so much riding on this game, especially with a young team more prone to being influenced by momentum.

I think Michigan wins in a close one. But because of what I think this game could mean, I will probably have post-rival-victory jubilation afterward.

"Coach, if you need one yard, I'll get you three yards. If you need five yards, I'll get you three yards."
-Leroy Hoard

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March 10th, 2010 at 8:23 PM | Oh my... (Score:1)
raptor
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Joined: 04/11/2009
MGoPoints: 1195

I am also pretty worried about this game. A loss would be absolutely devastating since a lot of people see UConn as a cupcake, even though they definitely are not. People would be going after RR's head even more than they are now if UM was to drop this game.

On the other hand, I am excited beyond belief for this game. The stadium will be done, the offense should be better(please God don't hurt Molk), hopefully the secondary will step up, and most of all it will be my first game in the Big House as a UM student.

EEB c/o 2014

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March 10th, 2010 at 9:35 PM | People (Score:1)
OHbornUMfan
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Joined: 01/22/2010
MGoPoints: 1853

They're going to go after RR's head after any and every loss. Par for the course. Even if we go 11-1, somebody will complain about the loss.

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March 10th, 2010 at 9:34 PM | Opportunity knocks to start the season (Score:1)
OHbornUMfan
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Joined: 01/22/2010
MGoPoints: 1853

It is reckless to take any opponent for granted, and I'm sure the troops on the field will take UConn very seriously. That being said, I love that UConn is ranked. Thumping a ranked Colorado team in '97 was one of my favorite season-opening Wolverine wins ever. I believe that with a ranked opponent come the opportunities not only to make an impression with the voters but also to build real confidence for the team. When the team thumps a cupcake, they know they've thumped a cupcake. Wins are good, but hollow wins against hollow opponents don't fool anybody, voters or players. I am more excited for an event almost 6 months from now than I've been in quite some time.

Go Blue!!

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March 11th, 2010 at 3:06 PM | I like how the preview pretty much favors UConn then OP (Score:1)
TSS
TSS's picture
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 966

predicts a UM shootout win (albeit with reservation.) This is going to be a game. I don't see Mich coming out on top here as yet.

I can't wait to see progress at the Spring game. That said, I like the uptick in schedule difficulty. UConn is much better than Western Michigan. This will be a target game for the team. I'm sure the coaches and players are not going to take this for granted. These are all quality losses on UConn's part last year.

Straight up comparisons don't look good looking back to 2009.

"When it got down to the nitty gritty, we pounded it in there the old fashioned way, and...um...I like that."  Bo 11/11/89  #3 Michigan 24 - #8  Illinois 10

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March 11th, 2010 at 4:55 PM | While I do agree that UConn (Score:1)
chunkums
chunkums's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 8900

While I do agree that UConn looks to be the favorite by the numbers from the previous season, you have to take the freshman quarterback factor into account, and the fact that UConn put up these numbers in the Big East, not the Big Ten. Also, in my opinion Michigan has a more physically talented team which will not be pushed around by UConn's power running game. The secondary could be very ugly for both teams, however.

For today, goodbye. For tomorrow, good luck. And forever, Go Blue.

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March 11th, 2010 at 10:57 PM | Early prediction based on unwarranted hope and video. (Score:1)
aaamichfan
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Joined: 10/23/2009
MGoPoints: 14085

UConn graduates their power back, and only has the speed guy left. He is definitely a good player, but I question how effective he will be without the power guy. UConn has a terrible secondary, so I imagine we will utilize the vertical passing game to set up the run.

The UConn defense struggled against mobile QB's last year. If Tate isn't getting the job done early, we might see Denard or Devin in the second half. Bottom line......we are adding a few weapons to the offense which teams will not be prepared defensively for. We should certainly be able to outscheme UConn's defense, and hopefully ours can get a few takeaways.

If we can shut down the running game and prevent a late game comeback, I think momentum carries us to a 10 point victory.

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March 11th, 2010 at 3:52 PM | What's with all the trepidation? (Score:1)
Louie C
Joined: 11/16/2009
MGoPoints: 1583

Part of my martial arts cirriculum includes some of the Filipino systems. The Filipinos were feared on the battlefield because they were deeply religious. They believed that the outcome of any battle was preordained by God, so they went to battle with a balls to the wall attitude. While it would not be wise to underestimate UCONN, I wont the boys in blue to go out with the same attitude and kick ass first and take names later.

"It's the only place to get the inside story on Wolverine football, so blee bluhh tahh!" - Bo

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March 11th, 2010 at 7:26 PM | Uh, (Score:1)
2 Walter Smith
2 Walter Smith's picture
Joined: 08/17/2009
MGoPoints: 196

There's a difference between the players having trepidation vs. a bunch of fans on a blog site in March.

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March 11th, 2010 at 11:07 PM | Before freaking out about (Score:1)
aaamichfan
aaamichfan's picture
Joined: 10/23/2009
MGoPoints: 14085

Before freaking out about this game, watch the first few minutes of this Mike Barwis video.





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March 12th, 2010 at 1:25 PM | I think home field... (Score:1)
Firstbase
Firstbase's picture
Joined: 09/30/2009
MGoPoints: 3048

...will play a major role here. Tate seems to thrive off the crowd, and I think the D will step up.

Final score: Michigan 31, UConn 24

"Look, our helmets got wings."

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March 12th, 2010 at 7:16 PM | This one will be one of (Score:1)
uminks
uminks's picture
Joined: 11/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1147

several close games of the season that will make a difference between 8 wins or 4 wins. I think Tate will lead us on a last minute drive to win 31 to 28! A loss, as long as it is close, will not mean the end of the season. Though the teams confidence will be shaken. I'm a bit worried about the next game on the road at ND. An opening game loss at home will make the trip to South Bend huge!

expect the best

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