TAMU's Turnaround Could Give Hope to Michigan
As a rabid Michigan and Texas A&M fan, it seems to me that these two programs are on a similar path. However, the comparison I want to make is 2009 TAMU and 2010 Michigan.
Both have proven coaches (Rich Rod, Mike Sherman). Both have very talented offenses. Both have young players on defenses. Both have terrible defenses.
DEFENSE
| 2009 Rank | 2010 Rank | |
| Rushing | 90 | 15 |
| Pass Eff. | 81 | 27 |
| Total | 105 | 51 |
| Scoring | 105 | 31 |
2009-10 A&M finished 6-7.
2010-11 A&M is currently 9-3.
What happened? A&M got a new defensive coordinator (Tim DeRuyter). Despite installing a new formation (3-4), there was a dramatic turnaround. By retaining his offense, and getting a new defensive coordinator, Sherman kept his job.
So, what does this mean for UM? Well, if Rich Rod can bring in a proven defensive coordinator (like DeRuyter) who runs a scheme suited to our strengths, we might see a similar turnaround. A conservative outlook might show a top-30 scoring defense to pair with a top-15 scoring offense. Given that 2010 Michigan has been handicapped with even more youth in the secondary than 2009 A&M, Michigan should show a larger benefit of an extra year of experience. (Additionally, Michigan's 2011 scoring offense should crack the top-10 as a result of the larger number of returners and a better defense).
Really, the turnaround hinges on who RR brings in to run the defense. Hopefully Brandon realizes that it would be premature to pull the plug on RR and uses all available resources to bring in an accomplished defensive coordinator.
[Background Info]
2010 Texas A&M returned 9 starters on defense.
2011 Michigan returns 9 starters on defense.
2009 Texas A&M had 3 sophomores and 1 seniors starting in the secondary.
2010 Michigan has 3 freshmen and 1 senior starting in the secondary.
November 26th, 2010 at 12:33 AM ^
Interesting. This is not the comparison I expected to see, but interesting. Hopefully we can make another 2+ jump in wins next year with a average+ defense.
November 26th, 2010 at 12:42 AM ^
has an average defense next year, I would expect 10+ wins with the offense that Michigan has this year and next year.
November 26th, 2010 at 12:35 AM ^
Michigan will have enough talent that if someone half-decent who can control the strategy and scheme comes in we should be OK
November 26th, 2010 at 12:49 AM ^
That comparison makes me feel better, but we need a defensive coordinator that is allowed to use his scheme and work with his own coordinators. I don't see how this happens with RichRod here next year because that means clearing out his own defensive staff from WVU. Unless he can get Casteel I do not see good things happening in the future.
November 26th, 2010 at 1:59 AM ^
Not to mention I have heard a lot about how RR is forcing the defense to run 3-3-5 and plays that GERG doesn't actually have any experience. Not sure how legitimate this info is, but a friend of a friend knows some players well enough to have heard this from them.
Either way, like said above, RR said he wants to keep his defensive staff. So unless he's willing to allow a complete swap of staff and change in defensive scheme, I don't see a simple change in defensive coordinator having a significant impact.
November 26th, 2010 at 10:09 AM ^
If he wants to keep his defensive staff, he might not keep his job.
November 26th, 2010 at 11:35 AM ^
If RR does that then I will be happy to see him go. With everyone stating his loyalties to his WVU staff it seems to not just be a rumor but fact. If he is too stubborn to replace his friends from past coaching stops then I am all for firing him. If he truly believes Bo's speech about the team (which they use on the scoreboards before the home games) then he'll make that concession for the betterment of the team.
November 26th, 2010 at 11:53 AM ^
Brandon holds all the cards. Rich is the man behind 6 league wins in 3 years and 0 wins against any league team with a winning record. (Wisconsin in 08 was 3-5). Offense shows a lot of promise though. We used to gripe at 6-2 league records in one season.
If he wants to stay he'll have to do what Brandon suggests.
One thing that I have no doubt about is Brandon's assessment has been ongoing and it has been very very thorough. Throw in the fact that he played at this level. We are in good hands.
November 26th, 2010 at 4:23 AM ^
I've been looking at some defensive stats and Arizona's defense stands out to me. They are ranked #12 in the country at 18.1 pts/game and 319 yds/game, which is #2 in the Pac10 behind Oregon. The Defensive Coordinator, Tim Kish, has strong ties to the midwest and is known to be a good recruiter.
http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/viewcoach.asp?Coach=525
http://www.arizonawildcats.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/kish_tim00.html
November 26th, 2010 at 8:39 AM ^
I have a lot of hope for Michigan without even considering TAMU. I see at least ten wins happening next year, with two of them finally coming over MSU and OSU. To me, the only question is how long it will take the chicken little portion of the fanbase and media to stop saying "yeah, but remember the 'collapse' of the last three years" as the wins keep adding up.
As for the defense, I think DB and RR have already talked about many areas of improvement behind the scenes, and that many general decisions about the future direction of the defense have already been made.
November 26th, 2010 at 10:34 AM ^
November 26th, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^
Or do you have actual gossip?
November 26th, 2010 at 10:57 AM ^
I'm tired of living vicarioulsy through another teams turnaround in hopes of UM doing the same "next year." I'm tired of OSU and MSU kicking UM's ass and having Michigan fans say "well UM has more wins in the rivalry." It is time to live in the present and not the past. Michigan has zero quality wins the last three years.
Nice post, just a little frustrated.
November 26th, 2010 at 11:14 PM ^
Turns out they sucked, but I think that is at least borderline quality.
November 26th, 2010 at 11:10 AM ^
........it was stated that their new DC implemented a 3-4 defense due to the emergence of spread type offenses in the B12. Currently, TAMU shows up 3rd in the B12 total defense category, and is tops in the conference against the run.
November 26th, 2010 at 11:59 AM ^
Whoever is coaching Michigan next year is going to win the conference title. Of this I am 90% certain. There is enough talent on offense, and returning players on defense, to get this team to 11 wins.
November 26th, 2010 at 12:12 PM ^
are the defensive schemes did not pay attention to the Wisconsin, MS, PS or Iowa games. The defense was literally overwhelmed by size plus speed. The underlining problem is recruiting the right defensive players for the opponents they will face in the conference. Small but fast may be effective in conferences like the BIg East but not in upper tier conferences who not only recruit speed but size.
November 26th, 2010 at 1:59 PM ^
The reason we looked so small on the field is that we are playing a 3-3-5 formation, and we are young. I don't know why you would run a 3-3-5 against a power run offense, everybody that plays Madden or NCAA football knows this doesn't work.
November 27th, 2010 at 1:40 PM ^
The 3-3-5 plays to Michigan's weakness... mostly the secondary.
November 26th, 2010 at 12:25 PM ^
I went to Michigan but my dad and granddad are A&M alums, so I also root for the Aggies and have really enjoyed watching their turnaround this season. Your analogy is a good one, but it all hinges on Rich Rodriguez finding his own Tim DeRuyter to fix our defense. Let's hope he's willing and able to do it.
November 26th, 2010 at 12:38 PM ^
I was putting together a post on the exact same topic. Good work.
Using the database in the Football Outsiders site that Brian linked to a couple of days ago in his defense of Rodriguez, A&M improved about a half a point in DFEI from last season to this one. The biggest factors were the defense getting a year older and stronger and revamping the defensive coaching staff.
A similiar jump would put Michigan's defense somewhere in the mid-20's nationally. I think we could all settle for that, no?
Also, with the exceptions of Von Miller and Coryell Judie, most of A&M's defensive recruits have not been particularly highly regarded by Scout or Rivals. Assuming a reasonable end to this recruiting class, the 2011 Michigan defense should have a minor talent advantage over the 2010 Texas A&M defense, which has been very, very good for most of the year.
November 26th, 2010 at 1:10 PM ^
after losing to Arkansas State a few years back.
November 26th, 2010 at 2:50 PM ^
Lets not forget our awful special teams play. We need a kicker as bad as we need a defense and someone who can return kicks and punts.
November 26th, 2010 at 4:34 PM ^
I think Rrod should go if Harbaugh is available. But if he stays, the condiition must be that he cleans out the defensive staff. I understand he is loyal to his guys, but on this issue Brandon needs to show him who is boss.
November 27th, 2010 at 1:39 PM ^
Cleaning out the D staff in and of itself won't work.
Look how well Shafer is doing now.
There was a post previously where someone ran into Roh and he said that the D side of the ball is a mess because of RR doesn't give the DC any autonomy and the cronies from WV have RR's ear instead of the DC.
November 28th, 2010 at 6:19 PM ^
I am hoping that along with more growth in Michigan's size and knowledge, next years D will benefit from not having to play so many 3 & 4 year starters at QB (Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.) There will still be a few left but not as many.
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