Realistic 2009 Prediction
As lamented by all, it's a terribly long offseason. Here's an attempt at generating semi-meaningful discussion: how do you expect our season to go? My week-to-week breakdown:
Western Michigan - The Broncos are at a severe talent deficit and must replace 7 starters on defense, including Detroit's 3rd pick, Louis Delmas. Look for a potential scare if Michigan's defense struggles with new personnel and new scheme. M's offense should be fine, despite a true freshman likely starting at QB.
Notre Dame - Notre Dame is incredibly talented. Whether or not that will translate to points is another question. I personally feel Clausen is better than many people give him credit for. His first year was a wash because of his porous offensive line. Look for a surge from the Irish. Our offense will likely need to win this game, and that's a tall order for a true freshman QB. It helps that we're at home, but I give ND the edge. 55-45% to the Irish. (Remember we outgained ND by 120+ yards last year. If our D steps up we win, but I don't think it'll happen.)
Eastern Michigan – No worries here. The Eagles return 16 starters from a team that finished 2-6 in the MAC. Barring another Toledo-esque meltdown, we win easily. The only way we lose is if shaky quarterback play and a complete meltdown on defense happens. Knock on wood, we should win.
Indiana – The Big Ten opener features undaunting Indiana. Indiana was lousy last year and is installing the Pistol offense. With Kellen Lewis being dismissed and Marcus Thigpen graduating, Indiana has no real playmaker. By now our defense should be getting its footing and our young quarterback will be improving, especially with the friendly confines of the Big House.
at Michigan State – The first road test for a freshman QB usually doesn’t bode well. MSU has to replace Javon Ringer, but I think they should be adequate enough to beat us. A few big plays from the offense and solid play from the defense will be enough for us to get the win. Unfortunately, I doubt we can count on both.
at Iowa – This game is likely a toss-up. Iowa does have to replace Shonn Greene, but their offensive line looks excellent. They return 8 starters on defense, but lost both defensive tackles. Iowa’s lack of offensive firepower gives us a shot, but one bad play from the defense could quickly foil M. Playing at Kinnick Stadium doesn’t help a freshman QB either (DIE, Dead Horse, DIE!!). Edge to Iowa.
Delaware State – I’m not going to say anything to jinx us. If we prepare properly, don’t take them lightly, and compete on Saturday, we win. As long as our players are aware that just showing up isn’t enough, we’ll be fine.
Penn State – This is a game we should actually win. Darryl Clark and Royster are very good, but four starters on the line have departed and a trio of receivers must be replaced. Add in a dysfunctional secondary and severe losses at DE, plus a little help from a friendly home crowd and you have the makings of an upset. Despite last year, we still own Penn State.
at Illinois – I fear this game could get ugly. The Big Ten’s best offense awaits us in Champaign. We simply don’t have an answer for Juice, Benn, and Florida transfer Jarred Fayson, among others. If we win, it’ll be in a shootout. Not likely considering our young QB(horse is still dead, though well-beaten) and the road atmosphere.
Purdue – A home game we should win. Purdue lost Painter and potential starter Justin Siller at QB. Only four players on offense return and the defense can’t stop the run. We bounce back and roll over Purdue.
at Wisconsin – The Badgers have a lot of question marks, making this game a toss-up. The road atmosphere will make it tough to win. The Badgers should be able to run effectively with John Clay against a suspect interior Michigan line. I think the Badgers will win, unless they have a meltdown on defense, similar to the one they had against us in the second half of last year’s game. Edge to Wisconsin.
Ohio State – That team is still loaded with talent. We have to contain Brandon Saine, if he’s healthy, as well as Pryor. We will need our corners to lock down on that team’s receivers, man-to-man, in order to do so. Big plays will likely win this game, and M’s defense needs limit to mistakes. Again, a freshman QB will need to play very well. Thankfully, this one is in the Big House. Edge to the other team.
Total record: 6-6
This might seem bad, but considering a brand new scheme on defense and a reliance on young players, it’s not too bad. Especially when a few games could go our way (ND, Iowa, and MSU) and quickly change it to a 9-3 record. Realistic expectations are important.
That is waaaay too level headed. Why can't you say we will be 9-3 and if a couple go our way we will be 11-1? Gosh I hope we are not 6-6, but your points make it hard to argue.
crushed my soul. I am only feeling confident about four games. Wins- Eastern, Indiana, Delaware State, Purdue
tossups- Western
Losses- ND, MSU, Iowa, PSU, Illinois, Wisconsin, OSU
Sadly, 5-7 will make me feel like we are going in the right direction, as long as we don't suck in every phase of the game like last year. Please show improvement, that's all I ask.
Unless the five wins were against OSU, MSU, ND, PSU and Iowa. Last year the team was a 6-6 team which was undercoached and underachieved to 3-9. So 6-6 is the minimum to feel that the program is heading in the right direction. And even that is a stretch. Really should go 7-5.
because if we don't turn the ball over like a billion times against them last year we beat them at their house. Another interesting view is we should beat Penn St. but lose to Michigan State. Personally, I would rather play State with an inexperienced QB and RB at their house then the senior QB, Royster and PSU in the Big House. I am expecting better than 6-6.
P.S. OSU better hope Pryor doesn't go down or they could be in a world of hurt.
"because if we don't turn the ball over like a billion times against them last year we beat them at their house. "
This is the dumbest dumb argument ever.
...and how was the play Mr. Lincoln, you know, besides the hole in your head?...
If you were Charlie, you job is potentially on the line after a 3-9 year and losses in plenty of big games and opponents on your resume and Michigan virtually spotted you a 14 or 21 point lead, what do you do? Run Run Run punt. That is what you do, especially in a freaking monsoon...I was there, it was wet. Really freaking wet.
True, but our defense will be nowhere near as good as last year, while ND's offense will be better. Meanwhile, we still have a very green QB. I'm hanging the potential loss on the defense. Notice also it's close to a toss-up.
Also, State has a couple of good options emerging at QB and a pretty stout defense.
PSU has a bunch of question marks, and you'll remember we were playing well against them last year before Threet was injured and the wheels came off the wagon.
I was pretty far off last year, when I predicted 7-5. I'd tried to temper my optimism. Here's my prediction from last season http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/dmccoy/161353/#comments
But don't forget that the offense will be better this year (it has to, given the fact that most of the players should be more comfortable with it, the Oline should be stronger, and the QB situation is not demonstrably worse (perhaps even a bit better) than last year. Plus, I think people grossly overestimate how good that defense was last year (count me in this group at times). It had a solid front line and decent CBs, but the linebackers were always letting plays get lose in the second level, and we all know about Stevie and the rest of the safeties. So while the defense might not be as dominant up front, I think GERG+more experience+nowheretogobutup should prove to be less of a hindrance than people believe.
And for the record, I was in Hawaii when ND blasted UH - even the locals thought this was one of the worst Uh teams in recent memory, and were surprised ND didn't beat them by more. So I'm not sure that the ND offense is going to be that much better this year, as the last few games before the bowl were pretty brutal.
People grossly overestimate how good our defense was last year? Who are these "people"? The defense I saw last year set a million Michigan records for futility. Are posters seriously arguing that we played well defensively last year?
I'm saying 8-4
Wins- Eastern, Indiana, Delaware State, Purdue, MSU, Wisconsin
tossup- Western
Losses- ND, Iowa, PSU, Illinois, OSU
You have to add Illinois to the tossup category. After the way that they tanked after throttling Michigan last season, who knows what they will be able to do. A quick look at their schedule before Michigan:
vs. Mizzou
ISU
@ OSU
PSU
MSU
@ IU
@ PU
Michigan
Best case, I see them at 4-3 coming into the Michigan game. (They won't beat OSU. Mizzou should be good again and win. MSU should also win. I think PSU could win in a shootout. I don't see them winning more than one of these.) If they lose all 4 of them, maybe they drop a bad game against Purdue and come in at 2-5. Juice is (at best) inconsistent, and (at worst) a head case. As he goes, so goes that team (Which is why if Eddie McGee ever comes in at QB, it is a mistake unless Juice is hurt or the game is "over".)
After what they did to our defense last year, I only see things getting worse.
Juice will be better, Benn wasn't healthy, Fayson is added to the mix, and that huge wideout (Cumberland?) is a potential nightmare matchup. The running backs (Leshoure and Ford) should be better developed as well.
Oh, we also lost Trent and Harrison in the secondary and three guys on the defensive line.
TROUBLE.
All I'm saying is that I don't think they have disciplined athletes at Illinois. Yes, they are talented. Yes, there are PLENTY of match-up problems. But I think they will be vulnerable if they have lost a few games, like the funk they found last year finishing 2-5.
Last year, both teams were 2-2, but Illinois' losses were "better" and Michigan had lots of questions to answer. I don't think anyone had Michigan pegged as a favorite in that game. But a 3-4 Illinois team vs. a 5-3 or 6-2 Michigan team would be very different.
This is far from a prediction. I just think that they will be a close game, despite last year's result.
Co-sign on the list, except move Iowa to the Win column and MSU to the toss-up. Iowa lost Shonne Greene, and last year's run might be more of an aberration than anything else. MSU will have a decent team next year, and I honestly think D'Antonio will be the coach who doesn't waste MSU's talent (Unlike Bobby and JLS). That has always been MSU's problem - they get decent enough talent, but most of the coaches (outside of Saban) wasted it with horrible coaching. MD has a system that can be filled by barely-competent players (Hoyer was an absolute mess last year) and produce good-but-not-great teams. By the time UM sees MSU, they should have a game plan and some players to execute it. That will be a fun game to watch.
Winning in Kinnick Stadium at night I think will be a huge challenge.
I agree about playing at Iowa, but I just think Iowa has been living off the past a bit in terms of success. Before last season, they were basically a .500 team for the past 3 years, and even last season was somewhat mediocre beyond their win over PSU and the shellacking they gave Minnesota. I think that without Greene and a first-time QB, they'll be a bigger mess than MSU.
8-4 or 7-5 for me
This schedule sets up favorably if Michigan fields a very good team this year- get the toughest opponents at home (OSU, PSU, and maybe ND) and play a bunch of mediocre-to-decent teams on the road.
However, Michigan won't be fielding a "very good" team this year. Those three tough home games and four road games all become likely losses (whereas in last year's schedule, they got a couple auto-losses out of the way on the road, and the home slate set up nicely, even if it wasn't taken advantage of)
The offense should show a fair amount of improvement, yes, but the defense... wow.
People keep saying the defense can't be any worse, but why can't they? Sure, they almost certianly won't be hung out to dry by the offense nearly as often as last year, but... just look at that depth chart. Or lack thereof. The D will be counting on a slew of n00bs and Steve Brown. I have a bad, bad feeling about the D this year. Please save us and prove me wrong, Greg.
Back to the point, I could see Michigan winning 4/5 of the other home games, and winning anywhere from 0 to 2 of the games from the set {road games, OSU, PSU, ND}. Sadly, I foresee 5-7 as the most likely result here.
But, Rodriguez keeps his job and, with a crapload of experience under their belts, the team pushes double-digit wins in 2010.
too many tough road games, too many good teams at home, and way too many question marks and unproven players on both sides of the ball for me to be more optimistic than that. I also have questions about the coaching staff, too. Prior records at other schools are certainly not without relevance, but last year was so bad that it's hard for me to make any definitive judgements one way or the other.
Assuming MSU, Ohio State, and Notre Dame are gimme losses, I look at these four games as the swing set that determines the outcome of the season:
at Iowa
at Illinois
Penn State
at Wisconsin
It's tough for me to believe a true freshman QB is going to be able to go 2-2 when three of the four games are on the road, so 7-5 looks unlikely. But if you can't even get one win out of this group, then it's 5-7. This four game set looks pretty crucial to me.
There is, however, reason to hope. Because most of the opponents have a lot of question marks, there are a lot of opportunities for the team to surprise and "steal" a game here and there. For example: Notre Dame looks like a great one to steal, because it's at home, Charlie Weis is just plain awful, and Notre Dame has not been able to beat teams with a pulse. Take that one, and 7-5 is a possibility. Yay.
I wouldn't call MSU a gimme loss. They are losing their All-Big 10 RB and a veteran QB. When I was at MSU, I heard them talk up Nichols, but he always seemed to disappoint when he actually stepped on the field. PSU will be a far tougher game than MSU, though I ultimately agree 7-5, 6-6 is the likely outcome.
As I said in my comments, a lot of the opponents have huuuuuuge question marks that may translate to "sucky team," and you're right to point out that MSU is one of those teams. But...it's at East Lansing, man. And we'll have a true frosh QB who has never seen that kind of hostility before. It's very hard for me to imagine M getting out of there with a win. Just...no.
The predictions I make are worth nothing, of course, and again I would emphasize there is hope in the fact that there are a lot of teams with question marks. Notre Dame, MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and even Penn State either have very serious gaps to fill from last year's teams, or have a lot to prove. Odds are one or possibly two of those will disappoint and M will be able to get past them. ND seems the most likely, but there are plenty of other candidates.
But remember that MSU will also be playing with a freshman QB. Also, the UM-MSU games tend to be filled with a less partisan crowd than, say, PSU or OSU. Spartan Stadium will have its fair share of UM supporters, and I don't completely buy the "freshman will be rattled" by a hostile crowd argument anymore. Freshmen tend to look most rattled when they are playing good teams on the road, and this year MSU will be in much the same boat as UM in terms of a younger team with inexperience at key spots. And to be fair, UM is going to win this year if the RBs play really well and Tate/QB doesn't make any boneheaded plays. My guess is that UM-MSU will be similar to last year, but this time with UM pounding Brandon Minor up the middle and pitching out to some of the freshmen/Shaw on the outside.
The D will be improved this year if we can move the football on offense a little and if Greg Robinson does a good job coaching up the linebackers. We were way too soft in the middle of the field last year. Oh yeah, and the D automatically gets better because Stevie Brown won't be playing safety. It seems the hybrid role may suit him better.
I expect the D line to perform about equivalently to last year. Yes we lost Taylor, Jamison and Johnson but Graham and Martin were the big playmakers and carried a lot of the load. Depth is certainly an issue though.
Key overall is getting new guys to step up and emerge from the shadows into greatness. Besides Martin, this is something that didn't happen last year.
I'm hoping for 6-6 or 7-5. I fear that a final record of 5-7 is more realistic, though.
belief that making a bowl game would be fine by me for this year?
You talk about our freshman QB as if it's a bad thing. He HAS to be better than Threet or Sheridan. It's an improvement. Even if he can't throw (hopefully he can at least throw better than Sheridan or Threet did last year), he can run, and that adds a whole new dimension to this offense that we didn't have last year and that Rodriguez thrives on. Plus this is the only new face on the offense - every other offensive starter from last year returns with a world of experience to draw from.
And about our defense - I believe the defense will be a lot better this year than last because of better coaching. A quote from Scott Shafer: "I take full responsibility for the demise of where Michigan's program is at this time." If this quote is even half true, I believe our defense will improve dramatically next fall. We lost some players, but no one that great really. Morgan Trent will be missed, but Cissoko and Warren have excellent potential if they get good coaching.
Plus the whole offensive line is that much better. I think given Rich Rodriguez's track record in second-season turnarounds and the new recruits that "fit" into Rodriguez's system makes us a much better team than last year.
IMO - Western/Eastern Michigan and Delaware State and Indiana are guaranteed wins. Notre Dame plays in our favor, because we almost beat them playing absolutely horribly last year. Same with Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois. And win 50% of the rest of our schedule (OSU, Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State) to finish like 8-4. Eh?
Illinois is grossly underestimated by many people. I'm chalking that up as a guaranteed loss. Brings your prediction to 7-5, only one off of mine. Our only other difference is ND, where i give them a 55-45 edge. We're not far off.
Our defense was on the field a lot last year. Our defense played poorly when it was on the field. Our defense will be on the field less this year. Our defense will very probably improve. Our offense will also improve. How many games were we in at halftime last year? Every game? You seriously think we're going 6-6? The big games are at home this year gentlemen.
Probable losses:
@Iowa
Toss ups:
OSU (they're better, but it's "the game". Same rules don't apply)
ND
MSU
IL
PSU
WMU
Wisc
Wins:
Eastern
Indiana
Delaware State
Purdue
We win half the toss ups. 7.5-4.5.
That's the over under.
6 wins is 1.5 under the over/under. I'm sure w/in one standard deviation. Definitely a possibility. The mean? Hardly.
Wins: WMU, ND, EMU, IU, Del St, Purdue, Wisconsin
Losses: MSU, Iowa,OSU
Toss-Up: Illinois, PSU
If ND has so much of talent...then how come only one guy got drafted? Wisconsin lost their best players to the NFL, and has no viable QB or receivers. Sparty, unfortunately, may be the sleeper of the league. They have two VERY good QBs, and a talented D to boot. Although Rick Stanzi won't get the accolades that Pryor will, he is a much more accomplished passer. Iowa can score in the bunches with him in there. Bucks are simply reloading, not their best team, but still way better than anyone else. PSU may disappoint. Ditto for the Illini, who have killer schedule up front.
If anything is going in our favor, it's that our opponents aren't really much better than we are. There is no Texas/Oklahoma/USC/Florida machine that will pull out the can of whoop-ass and put up 50 unanswered points(PSU '08 not included). If we can develop a consistent running game, minimize our turnovers(I know that's asking a lot), and have our opponents starting their drives at their own 20, and not our 40....well then, I'd say we have a shot in most of these games.
The kids will be older, stronger, and more confident. And there is actually competition at every position for playing time, something that never existed under Lloyd.
Most of the posters are fatalistic. The rest of the Big Ten simply isn't that good. It's not. We should be okay. 8-4.
Well, call me a foolish optimist, but I think 8-4 or 9-3 is very possible. Even last year, we were closer than you might think. Despite the struggles on offense last year, Michigan led at some point, by some margin in all but two games: ND (we'll spot you 14) and OSU (sigh). 2008 suffered from a clash of attitudes (both between coaches/coaches and coaches/players), a hiccup in key talent areas, a lapse in player leadership, and damned bad luck. It was a perfect storm, but it's now past. I see talent in those recruits, cohesion in those coaches, and hunger in the players to silence the unexpecting opponents on that schedule still laughing and picking at the carcass of 2008. I see a titan about to be reborn. I see winged helmets, open grass, and breathless defenders falling in futility as victors break the plane. I see the leaders and best. And, dammit, I see nine wins.
Point 1: I expect the offense to be worlds better this year due to an improved o-line. I mean, we only had one returning starter last year! Do you remember how many McGuffie runs were for negative gains in the first half of the season? As the line improved and Minor healed, so did the running game. I'm as excited about the new QBs as anyone, but it all starts with the line.
Point 2: I also think that the defense will also be worlds better now that the personnel issues are sorted out. So many 3rd-and-long conversions- that's got to be a scheme-coaching disconnect.
Point 3: Luck. Turnovers average out, man. All those fumbles will be bouncing back to us this Fall.
So damn it, Wolverines! We have one bad year and we suddenly think that we're Indiana and hope for a bowl game? We've still got Michigan talent on this team and it's starving for a chance at redemption. It took so many simultaneous misfittings to produce 3-9. If half of those things get righted in 2009, we're 7-5 at least. If all the pieces click, the sky's the limit.
I agree that there is reason for optimism. I don't know if I can put a number on it, but I'll put it this way. There is a reason I'll be watching the Wolverines on Saturdays, and not the Lions on Sundays. And this will be regardless of whether the Lions are on TV or not!
First, I feel like our defense was a bit underrated last year. The stats certainly tell a bloody, abysmal story, but a lot of the points we gave up last year were a result of bloody, abysmal field position because of turnovers. As long as we find someone capable of fielding punts/kick-offs and don't see extensive playing time for Mr. Sheridan, I think we will see better results from the defense even if they arguably lost a bit of talent.
I say we get at least 7 wins. I am hoping for 9 with a few minor upsets (by your reckoning). If the offense makes Rodriguez's signature second year leap, we could be in for a seriously pleasant surprise and all bets are off.
My prediction has been 9-3 all along, and I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind. I think the losses will be to Iowa, PSU, and Wisky. And, if PSU doesn't reload as effectively as I think they will, it could even be 10-2, but it just feels like a 9-3 year to me.
I won't restate my reasons in as much detail as I originally posted them, but they are as follows:
1)A bona fide major college QB
2)Another year of Barwis
3)OL depth from last year's redshirts
4)Everybody has bought into the system this year
5)Lots of "revenge games"
6)The defense can't possibly be as bad as it was last year
7)The offense will keep the defense off the field more than last year
Last year was an aberration, not the norm; after all, this is UM we are talking about. The talent base is there, and will be fine as long as Nick Sheridan never takes another snap as anything but a "human victory cigar."
If, however, we are stuck watching Sheridan start at QB, I will agree with the 6-6 or 7-5 people.
im thinking 12-1 with a loss to DState, but for the sake of being realistic, ill go with 13-0
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