chance of bowl: 13.6%
Will Trade Soul For Pizza House
- Member for
- 5 years 35 weeks
|5 years 5 weeks ago||Seriously?||
You get half a win in terms of percentage for a tie? That's what the numbers seem to indicate. What is this, hockey?
1. MICHIGAN - .740 (874-295-36, 1205 GP)
874 wins over 1169 (wins and losses) is 0.748
|5 years 7 weeks ago||FYI - Jennifer is very nice||
FYI - Jennifer is very nice and responded to let me know that she will make sure Coach Rodriguez got my message.
|5 years 7 weeks ago||E-mail his assistant||
Mgoblue.com notes that Rich Rod's Executive Assistant is Jennifer Maszatics. Her e-mail address is firstname.lastname@example.org. I don't know about you, but I am e-mailing her and asking her to give our support to all the players and coaches. Let's give her the best from the Michigan faithful and hope that she passes it on to Coach.
Even if there's just a 1 in a 1,000 chance that someone reads/pass along these e-mails, it's better than sitting by and watching our coaches get hung out to dry by journalists with an axe to grind. It's time to close ranks around our own however best we can.
|5 years 8 weeks ago||Yes||
Great video - keep them coming. No suggestions for music, but I would love to see some Breaston highlights in there. I had never heard that Desmond interview, by the way. Very cool.
|5 years 8 weeks ago||They could do this tastefully enough||
Solid video. I am not thrilled with the idea of pumping in non-marching-band-music during the games, but I wouldn't mind a video beforehand. They play a History video before Bulls games in the United Center set to a song from Remember the Titans that gets me riled up every time I see it.
|5 years 8 weeks ago||Agreed||
I think you're on target here about potentially losing some of these guys, especially if Robinson ends up as our starter (or Gardner seizes the reins next year).
I am not sure that the chances are quite that high, though. If Tate wins the starting position (I am assuming he is still the favorite despite the recent Robinson buzz), I could easily see Robinson playing defense. Then Gardner could redshirt or just end up as the #2 QB awaiting his turn to start.
|5 years 8 weeks ago||Eyes on the prize, people||
The whole goal of the Rodriguez hire/change of direction was to win some national championships. I don't think you can do that without staying healthy. While planning for contingencies is helpful and prudent, you need to make sure your back-up plan doesn't hamper your ceiling.
With the limited number of practices and games in college athletics, the reps at QB are too precious to split evenly two ways. This is especially true for young players. A QB's rapport with his first team receivers, the center, etc., build over time. His ability to make good decisions and good plays hopefully improves over time. I want one of these young kids to seize the reins and end up the concensus starter. If that means the other eventually changes positions or even transfers, so be it. I like our changes of competing for a national championship in the next few years a lot better if we end up with one established, experienced quarterback.
|5 years 8 weeks ago||Yikes||
I have to respectfully disagree here. I think you need your QB to have confidence in himself and not be looking over his shoulder. I think he has to be able to execute the game plan and take his time even when the game starts off a bit rocky. I think the offense needs to know that he's your QB and be thinking that they're going to win games together, not hoping that the Other Guy gets up off the bench. If the QBs know that they're going to get yanked for a slow start, I think it will hurt you more in the long run.
|5 years 8 weeks ago||Six Zero!||
Don't tease us now, sir. Let's see this OSU shirt. If you can't print it for fear of lawsuits, assasination, or lynch mob - so be it. But at least give us a peek.
|5 years 9 weeks ago||Grady||
I guess the ball hit the ground enough on offense last year that it will be good having someone on the field that can dribble....
|5 years 10 weeks ago||Suggestion||
Six Zero - mgoblog inside jokes are all well and good, but I would be more interested in a sweet Michigan shirt than just a graphic representation of a catch-phrase from my favorite blog.
Off the top of my head: something like you-know-who doing the Heisman pose? Or a Michigan player doing the Heisman pose with no number or name and a tag line like "Who's got next?" I am pumped to see some Barwis shirts, but don't be afraid to invoke some old school Michigan icons, too.
|5 years 10 weeks ago||I feel like Sheridan's arm||
I feel like Sheridan's arm strength crippled the offense last year. It shrank the field, and led to bad duck throws while backpedaling when he got into trouble. I don't want to see him out there this year except in case of emergency.
Also, I would like to remind everyone that this will likely be a rebuilding year no matter what from Michigan standards. If our goals is to win some national championships, let's have the QB of the future (with the clearly superior physical tools) taking snaps instead of the physically overmatched walk-on that frightens us all to death.
|5 years 10 weeks ago||Whoa whoa whoa, Miss Lippy||
I am also hesitant about pinning our future wardrobe choices on the kid who has never started a game in his life. I remember being excited to start the Matt Gutierrez era before the 2004 season. The whole quarterback situation obviously panned out just fine in the long run, but a Gutierrez t-shirt would probably not have been a stellar idea.
That being said, just having a Darth helmet with the Michigan helmet stripes could look spectacular.
Overall a solid effort, but we have enough chips riding on young Tate this season. No need to put the pressure of 10,000 t-shirts on him, too.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||Good Influence||
I think you need some of that old toughness and commitment to defense in the locker room. Maxiel and Kwame definitely could learn a few tricks from Old Ben. There weren't any decent options available at that price for only a year, and I think the leadership is well worth it. If you get some passable minutes from him, that's great. In all honesty, I don't see the Pistons making many waves this year unless they can preemptively land one of the big free agents in a mid-season trade.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||M-Go-eBay?||
Great idea - is there somehow with the time, tools, and know-how to detach the hood or door panels? They would make great collector's items to hang on a wall instead of corroding in a scrapyard. Maybe it could be auctioned off with half the proceeds donated to MGoBlog or the University?
|5 years 11 weeks ago||Intriguing||
First, lets give this man some points. This is the type of thought-provoking, labor-intensive post that the up arrow was invented for.
Second, I am not totally sold on whether you can draw a lot of conclusion from this data. I would be particularly cautious about drawing conclusions from the "tiers."
For example, the tier 1 quarterbacks could easily be pocket passers that take a lot of sacks (which is usually credited as a run, unless you accounted for that). If you look at something like that and see that they are generally injured for longer, it could easily be because they are getting sacked all the time and not actually trying to run that much more than your average, Tier I pocket passer.
That being said, I was shocked to see how often the quarterback ended up injured. It makes me wonder what the NFL numbers would be for something like this. When you look at a guy like Favre (probably a Tier I guy who did a lot of scrambling to create room to throw downfield) who went so long without missing a game, it makes you wonder what it is that makes some people borderline invincible, willing/able to produce despite an injury, and/or both.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||Amen||
As the oldest of three boys, I could not agree more.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||Antwaan Randle El||
I have to put in a mention for the game against Indiana in 2000 (58-0). Although beating up on Indiana is normally not a huge point of pride, as I recall Randle El was putting up some good numbers that year and was pretty heavily hyped coming into the game. Their offense had put up 38, 34, 42, 45, and 33 points in their first five games of the season. I remember leaving the stadium just beaming after the whooping we put on IU.
|5 years 12 weeks ago||True . . .||
The quasi-arbitrary break points worry me, too. Could we do a regression analysis to eliminate that issue? Any volunteers with plenty of time on their hands?
Actually, could we instead re-categorize Sheridan into the category most likely to not see the field? Any statistical fallacy you could arrange to make me think that he will never see the field would be greatly appreciated.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||TOP||
Our average time of possession ranking from last year was 110th nationally. The only teams worse than us were:
Obviously that's a pretty good mix of awful, average, and good. Two very average teams - Arkansas State (6-6) and Memphis (6-7) - were both in the top five.
I wish they tracked time of possession by either your number of plays on the field or the actual time you posses the ball (as opposed to the game clock time). I feel like incomplete passes distort the statistic quite a bit. It might be a useful metric for games between two teams that run a lot (or have similar pass/run balance), but it doesn't seem to be that reliable of an indicator of success in general.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||Conversion Percentage||
I am on the fence as to whether our third down conversion defense in general is a huge factor in our wins (if any amateur statisticians want to take a crack at some sort of regression analysis, be my guest).
For context, our 38.78% defensive 3rd down conversion rate was 60th nationally and 7th in Big Ten (PSU was tops in the big ten at 32.36%, FSU at 25.75% was tops nationally). The mean national conversion % was 39.04% (37.60% in the big ten). We were very close to the median both in conference and nationally.
In our three wins, we allowed Miami to convert 42% of third downs (and there were a lot of third downs), Wisconsin 32%, and Minnesota 29%. Our percentage against Minnesota was good, obviously, compared with our season average of 39%, as was our percentage against Wisconsin. Miami actually converted an above-average percent of their 3rd downs but couldn't find the end zone.
The four-loss stretch from Toledo through Minnesota was certainly pretty ugly (44, 50, 50, and 47%), but we held Toledo to only 13 points. I am just not feeling a strong connection.
I also cobbled together some stats on 3rd and long based on the defense's situational stats for rushing/passing (links below). On 3rd and 7-9 yards to go, we let up 12 conversions in 41 attempts (29%). On 3rd and 10+ we let up 12 conversions in 50 attempts (24%). I don't have a lot of context for those numbers, but PSU (which led the conference in overall 3rd down defensive conversion %) was 7/33 on 3rd and 7-9 (21%) and 5/48 (10%) on 3rd and 10+. We are fairly far off the league-leading pace on those numbers, so maybe you have a point about third and long.
Game Result Attempts/Converted (%)
Also, if someone could let me know how to paste an actual table into a post, that would be greatly appreciated.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||True, but . . .||
That's certainly average, at best, but part of that is also the amount of possessions afforded opposing offenses. If our offense was frequently off the field in 3 downs (or close to it) or never saw the field because we fumbled a punt, that leaves more opportunities for the opposing offense to wrack up yards. I am not saying we had an elite defense last year, but I still think there's some hope for next year if our offense can even approach mediocrity.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||45 yard line?||
Starting field position on the 45 is brutal (I wonder what the national average was). What is field goal range for your average college kicker? 40 yards? 45? That means you only need to get 27-32 yards to be in field goal range. I sure hope that Brian's theory about lost fumbles being essentially random is correct. We could really use a break towards the mean this year.
|5 years 15 weeks ago||Yikes||
That may be a bit bold. That is a seriously porous starting five on the defensive end. Boozer is physically brittle and Villanueva is inconsistent and mentally fragile.
Boston just got better with Sheed (and would have been top 3 in East even with just a healthy Garnett), Orlando will probably be just as good as last year (and the Pistons don't have Sheed to stop Howard anymore), and Cleveland is showing no sign of slowing down.
The Pistons barely made the playoffs this year and I don't think they got much better this year. I would rather have Atlanta's starting five, and maybe even Toronto's or Washington's.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Wait, huh?||
Did you see Shaq play last year? He had a solid season. I wouldn't sleep on Shaq now that he's camped in our division. I am curious, though, to see how well he plays with Lebron. Those are two great passers, though, at the 3 and 5. If only they had a point guard, shooting guard, or power forward to play with, things might actually be interesting.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||This is a bit worrisome||
Has anyone seen Morris actually play on t.v. or in person? One of the reasons I was such a big fan of Grady was that his handle was superb. I don't trust Stu or LLP to bring the ball up against full court pressure. Manny is passable at this, but he's not ideal and it's a waste of his energy that could be better spent elsewhere.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Beg to differ||
I think a great punter can be a huge weapon. I don't know how hard they are to project out of high school (any insight on this, people?), but I definitely have been frustrated with opposing punters pinning us deep time and time again. If you buy into the need to win the field position battle, I think you can't underestimate the value of a talented punter.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||Yep||
That is correct, sir.
|5 years 17 weeks ago||4th Down Controversy||
I think you have to look at 4th down calls as an expected value situation. It's not just a matter of "how likely are we to convert this?" or "can we afford to lose this?" You can afford to fail to convert any fourth down in the first quarter, but you might not want to risk handing your opponent easy points by going for it inside their field goal range even if you think you have a great shot at converting. You're probably more interested in trying to convert a fourth down from just outside your own field goal range because a conversion is more likely to result in points.
I feel like the more interesting aspect of play-calling is the paper-rock-scissors aspect of things. You can chart and diagram all you want. I am sure it's useful to be cognizant of what plays work best at what down and distance. But with all the moving parts and variables in a football game, so much of play-calling is a gut feeling. Something like the hook-and-ladder that sealed the Purdue game last year was just a great call. I don't know if you would ever cue that up based on stats alone, but it was a devastating, fantastic call.
What makes certain coaches good and creative with that aspect of the game? Is it luck, instinct, or just amazing scouting and film study to identify weaknesses in a defense?
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Crawford? Seriously?||
As a Bulls fan who suffered through the Jamal Crawford era, Ben Gordon is the clearly superior choice. The entire city was pumped to see the Knicks take him off of our hands. If you thought AI didn't fit in with Detroit Basketball, just wait until you see Crawford.
Could you go small with Stuckey, Rip, and Hamilton at the 1-3, Tayshaun at the 4, and Maxiell or A.J. or free agent acquisition (Boozer? Millsap?) at the 5?