Incoming Hoops Recruits' Impact Next Year

Submitted by TomW09 on
So, we've had some great posts recapping a wonderful basketball season. I've heard a lot of talk about next year, unsurprisingly, and there's only been little spatterings of our incoming talent on the interwebs that I've seen. So, here's my attempt to give a deeper look into what this roster will look like next year. Feel free to criticize away! Departures David Merrit CJ Lee Jevohn Shepard Additions Darius Morris - PG 6'3" 175 **** Matt Vogrich - SG 6'4" 180 *** Jordan Morgan - PF 6'8" 245 *** Blake McLimas - C 6'9" 210 Eso Akunne (pref. walk on) This year's walk-ons were Corey Person and Eric Puls. With four scholarship players coming in and preferred walk-on Eso Akunne entering the fold, I find it unlikely (without knowing exact roster limitations) that either will be back. First, the addition of Darius Morris will be a huge step for this program - he's a legit college PG with size. Something we haven't had since, well since before I got to Michigan, that's for sure. Morris has an above average handle and a good head on him. He's a guy that you look at and say "he's the future." It'll be fun to see what he can do with JB teaching him. Matt Vogrich put up sensational numbers throughout his senior year. He's a pure shooter and a great fit for the Beilein system. It was nothing out of the ordinary to see headlines of "Vogrich puts up 35" all winter. The kid is a scorer. Morgan is an interesting case. Nothing has been overly impressive about his senior season. He has very good size for a PF and could potentially be something we're missing - a big body that can rebound - yet there's been a lot of talk about a red-shirt. McLimas is certainly a project. He transferred to a top academy where he put up decent to meh numbers. I fully expect a redshirt. Everyone likes to throw around projected starting lineups, myself included. But at this point - none of these guys have set foot on campus since their recruitment - that's kinda pointless. But looking at how the roster fills out is still interesting and provides some big questions: Point Guard-y type players: Grady, LLP, Morris, Douglass Guards: Harris, Douglass, Novak, Vogrich, LLP Wings: Harris, Novak, Wright, Sims Bigs: Sims, Gibson, Cronin, Morgan, McLimas So, I went with PG-y type players because I feel the PG position is a real crap shoot as of now. I think one thing that can be universally agreed upon is that our best bet is for Kelvin Grady to pick it up defensively, work out his mental lapses on the offensive end, have a great off-season, and emphatically win the job. In a perfect world, we'd have that. Darius Morris would be able to learn his way through his freshmen season, gaining some valuable season from the bench while still having an experienced PG in control of the team. Now, if Kelvin can't make that leap, then we have issues. Does LLP split time with Grady and Morris early on? Does Douglass, who has improved tremendously and shown he's an extremely good passer, get called on to handle the responsibilities? I'm personally ok with Douglass at point in certain instances. He's a very heady player, he's brought the ball up the court at several points in the season, he's an excellent passer, and he defends well. Obviously, he would be playing out of position though, and would be giving up foot speed to almost any B10 PG. Early in the season if there is flux and uncertainty at point, however, I can see JB looking to Douglass to handle the PG role on the offensive end with perhaps LLP also on the floor to handle the defensive side of the ball. The other option is to throw the job at Morris, the heir apparent, and live with freshman mistakes. I'm not a huge fan. Maybe by B10 season he'll be ready to take the reins, but this is a complex system. I'd be much more in favor of the above Stu/LLP situation Looking to the other end, it will be very interesting to see how far Cronin can come along. IMO, ideally, Cronin will have an excellent off-season and be able to find a role as a 10-minute guy off the bench. I think asking for anything more is pushing it. From all accounts he still plays soft and small. He's been away from basketball for several months now. It would take a very good off-season to get to the point where JB can use him as the first big off the bench. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if we see more of the small lineups that we had this year (at least to start the season). That means Novak will be our everything guy, yet again. Perhaps Ant can help fill in that role as well, but judging by this year, who knows. Whether or not Jordan Morgan can come in and contribute as a big off the bench is a big question. If he and Cronin are able to step in and provide quality minutes, we could get the Sims/Gibson starting lineup that many of us crave. That's an ideal situation, however. I would expect us to still play small with either Cronin or Morgan providing spot minutes and at times allowing Sims and Gibson to play together when necessary (for those UConn, OU, Illinois type games). What happens with the bigs will heavily affect how much playing time Matt Vogrich gets, IMO. With LLP, Douglass, and Novak providing the 2/3 outside shooter roles, and Manny being Manny, Vogrich is going to have a tough time finding PT. If we go small then I think it's likely that we see Vogrich get some time. However, if our bigs play out in an ideal fashion, Vogrich may be the odd man out. it's truly amazing the depth we have at 2/3. There's so many possible lineup combinations that it hurts to even consider it. But in the end, Vogrich is competing with Douglass, Novak, LLP, Manny, and Ant for PT. Despite the fact that the guy is supposed to be lights out from the arc, I find it hard to see where he'll find the floor with all these other guys already with 1 or 2 years of experience in Beilein's system. So, all in all, alot depends on the off-season development of Kelvin Grady and Ben Cronin. Those are the two guys that, if they work extra hard in the off-season and make a deep commitment to truly getting better, they can really change the face of this team. Otherwise, we could be looking to freshmen (Morris at point, Morgan as reserve big) to be taking over important roles. The talent for this team is at a level that can be compared to the senior season of Dion Harris, Courtney Sims, et al. It'll be interesting to see if they can take advantage of that talent better than Amaker's final team could.

Comments

Tater

March 23rd, 2009 at 2:54 PM ^

I agree with most of the analysis. That in itself is amazing to me. I am more optimistic than you are about McLimans, though. The article referenced in the mgolicious column said he has improved his skills greatly and has grown another inch. I am hoping he eventually becomes a Kevin Pittsnogle or at least Bill Laimbeer type. Reportedly, he has worked hard at improving himself and his skills. Basically, if they can get the equivalent of one center out of Gibson, Cronin, and McLimans, they could play a taller lineup and still have the option of playing a smaller one when they want or need to. I know that JB doesn't use the traditional system, but for all practical purposes, the 6-7 (not 6-9) Sims played the 5 and Manny played the 4. Moving them "down" a spot each would really come in handy against MSU, OSU, and Wisky. If Morris and Vogrich are as good as you feel they may be, UM goes in one year from mediocre personnel to an "embarrassment of riches" at the guard spots. I'm with you all the way on Grady, but I will take it one step further. It is time for Grady to shit or get off the pot on the defensive end of the floor. I'm sure that he has NBA aspirations, and he needs to realize that he needs to elevate his play enough to get on the floor at UM before thinking about the NBA. I have a feeling that if that switch in his head doesn't finally turn on, he will transfer to a smaller school to get playing time. Most of all, though, I am really glad that we are talking in optimistic terms about how great UM basketball could soon be. The last ten years have been a major crock of shit for me; I have always been a huge UM basketball fan, but there was nothing to cheer about for way too long. Cazzie Russell was a student teacher in my gym class at Tappan, and it hooked me on UM basketball. On a side note, I watched him sink 100 straight free throws to win a bet with the head of the PE department after school one day. I was there at the dedication of the arena, and saw Russell's "put your hand in a bucket of water" speech. Before moving down here in 1998, I went to a lot of games at Crisler. I have tons of fond memories there: one of Frieder's horribly overmatched early teams upsetting #2 OSU, yearly nail-biters against Illinois, Phil Hubbard and the 1976 team, watching Henderson, Tarpley, and Wade turn the program into a perennial winner, Garde Thompson, the Bodnar twins, Antoine Joubert, etc. And that was before the 1989 National Champions. I sat next to Ed Martin before he was unmasked as a criminal and watched Glen Rice score 41 against Wisky. I also saw countless Fab Five games. I saw Thompson, Antoine Joubert, Glen Rice, and Terry Mills in their HS state championship games there, too. Anyway, when I moved down here in 1998, UM was a few years removed from the Fab Five, and won the Big Ten Tournament. Never in my worst nightmares did I even consider that the program would sink to such depths that I wouldn't be seeing them in the tourament for eleven years. So, I have been watching in utter glee the last two weeks. Hopefully, this means UM is officially back. It's about time.

TomW09

March 23rd, 2009 at 3:27 PM ^

I missed the McLimas article - that's good news. I think we need two of Gibson, Cronin, Morgan, and McLimas to be able to legitimately contribute some minutes in order to play big. Gibson is a shoe-in. If one of the other three can step it up, that would be great. The more I think about it, even though I'm pretty excited about Vogrich, the more I'm thinking there's a possibility of a RS. There's just a mass amount of talent at the 2 (well, atleast a bunch of bodies with comparable talent).

Will Trade Sou…

March 23rd, 2009 at 4:13 PM ^

I saw Vogrich in a playoff game against my alma mater (Stevenson H.S., which is an average team at best). He does not look physically ready for college basketball. As you might have noticed from his measurables (6'4", 180), he is a beanpole. He didn't jump out at me as a particularly great athlete, either. I imagined a D-I recruit would stand out against an average high school team, but I could never have identified him without a program. He got a lot of his points off of put-backs of his own misses, but I don't think he gets those offensive boards at the next level. He attacked the rim, but was not particularly strong or skilled. He just happened to be taller than most of the guys he was playing against (or at least taller than the guys guarding him). The form on his shot looks pretty, but I didn't get a sense that this was the next Ray Allen. He didn't play poorly and I think he put up decent numbers, but I didn't see any skills that made me excited for his future at Michigan. I hope he was just having a bit of an off day. Thank God Manny and DeShawn are coming back. Cronin intrigues me. I just read that he averaged over 7 blocked shots per game. Hopefully he's not quite as soft as advertised. We could use some toughness at the rim. I pray daily for Grady to get his head on straight. Here's the question, though - what are our expectations for next year's team?

jlbockUM

March 24th, 2009 at 1:09 AM ^

The kid did have a great senior season, adding a "scorers" ability to his sharp-shooter reputation. However, his size and athleticism will be major factors next year. Coming in he'll be at a physical disadvantage. Calling him an average defender would be an overstatement. We've seen that Beilein will not play guys unless they can defend, and that will be Vogrich's biggest issue. Stu Douglass improved his D throughout the year and earned the starting SG spot, hopefully Vogrich can show the same improvement. I would not expect much of anything from Vogrich next year. He's definitely a Beilein-system recruit offensively, but he's a Beilein bench warmer defensively.

marco dane

March 24th, 2009 at 12:01 PM ^

of wing type/2guard ballers I for one wouldn't be surprise if Vogrich is redshirted. Of course,this move can only be predicated,if and only if,Grady has a phenomenal off-season (mentally & d wise)leading him to simply win out the pg position next fall. I would like this scenario play out so that Vogrich can get use to the system,gets physically stronger and prepared for college ball. Again we have enough wing/2guard types...my thinking Vogrich might not get the minutes anyway if he were not able to crack the rotation.

Musket Rebellion

March 23rd, 2009 at 5:39 PM ^

ESPN: "Excellent spacing, ball movement, player movement, and basket cuts are the basics of the Michigan offense. This is perfect for Matt. He has a good basketball I.Q. and understands the game. Look for him to be an immediate threat on the perimeter. http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recruiting/tracker/player?recruitId=6699… More: http://blogs.suntimes.com/lockerroom/2008/08/summers-best-matt-vogrich…

mth822

March 23rd, 2009 at 11:03 PM ^

You know there are numerous guys at the college level who come in at the 180-200 pound mark who are around 6'3-6'6. It's quite normal. I'm sure Vogorich is fine. I think what MI needs is one one one playmakers off the dribble now to feed all of those guys hanging around the wings waiting to launch 3's.

KzooRick

March 23rd, 2009 at 8:35 PM ^

I have been amazed at Stu's ball handling development during the season. I was thinking there was possibility of him playing point next year if other options didn't work out but didn't think about LLP being out there with him. Their abilities complement each other nicely. I think LLP still could have a huge upside, he just needs some coaching and some time to get his head straight. Sometimes ability needs some time to mature.

mth822

March 23rd, 2009 at 10:32 PM ^

* I do not see Douglass as a point guard at all. In traps where someone can bring up the rock and go into a half court set yeah, but a point guard no. He is like Steve Alford if anything. He needs a screen to set him free. In two years it would be nice to see him looking like Duke's Jon Scheyer does now in his Junior year. And that is doable for him. A lot was asked from him as a freshman. * Darius will be your point guard by mid-season. Or perhaps even before. From his videos he can step right in. Manny and him will become fast friends on the court. * The progression of Sims, Gibson and Cronin are huge for Michigan. Physiologically they are who they are. But as emotional leaders they must assert their will this offseason. Michigan needs a big man on the boards and in the paint defensively. I thought Gibson was their best true post defender in the tourney. Sims was not exactly lackadaisical but he would drift. This has to change for him. * People are looking to Michigan now again. One more tourney run and they are back in the swing of things for many top ten talents.

TomW09

March 24th, 2009 at 1:41 AM ^

If you really look at Beilein's PG roles on the offensive end, there isn't much that they do differently than the SG. They run their motion offense and both guards run off back screens and rotate to the top of the key. Both guards come off a screen and role from the side of the key to get the ball and distribute it to the post if its there. I see Douglass having no problem with that. As you said, he can bring the ball up and safely navigate a press (although he isn't going to be a guy in single-handedly break a press). The problem is who he guards on defense. This is solved by (1) Beilein running zones often and (2) pairing him with someone who can man up the other team's PG, ala LLP. So I guess in this theoretical situation, one could say that LLP is playing the point and Douglass in initiating the offense. It's a combination of roles. As fans/armchair coaches, we have the tendency to try to label players as either a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. In actuality, I'm sure that these roles can be mixed and matched depending on the given offensive set, the given opposing team, and the other players. But again, this is assuming that KG, Morris, and LLP all are unable to firmly grasp the position.

El Jeffe

March 24th, 2009 at 10:23 AM ^

It didn't draw enough vitriolic snidery, but oh well. Maybe next time you'll suggest night basketball games or angora uniforms or something. Anyway, I wanted to say that I cosign this here reply. The idea of a superfast superawesome PG with a superhandle is attractive, obviously, but it isn't necessary for JB's style. PGs like Ty Lawson or Deron Williams are, first and foremost, rare as hell, and second, do three things that JB doesn't need (all of which you mentioned, so I guess this post isn't adding much except emphasis): 1. Handle a good trapping team solo (JB's more of a pass through it sort); 2. Play lockdown D against another awesome PG (the 1-3-1 negates that necessity); and 3. Run a high screen and roll (which JB's particular brand of motion offense doesn't need). So, to sum up, I see no problem with PG by committee, consisting of Douglass, LLP, Grady, and Morris.

Will Trade Sou…

March 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 PM ^

I have heard good things about Vogrich's shooting, and god knows that one game doesn't tell the entire story. He will obviously have a summer to work out, but at first glance he doesn't look like he's physically ready for Big Ten basketball. I certainly hope the kid proves me wrong.

MICHfanINsecLAND

March 24th, 2009 at 6:59 AM ^

It's nice to see that Michigan bb fans, (my-self included), are so excited about next year. I still think though, that Michigan is going to struggle in the Big 10 unless they can can get a little bigger and more physical. By struggle I mean they'll go 10-8. Having said that, I do think that they are still going to be a tough out in any tournament format. Beilein's style is very hard to prepare 4. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see the combination of players that allows us to play big and still be able to have 5 guys out there that can knock the 3 down. Unless, Morris is what we all think he is and LLP keeps getting better we could make up a lot of are size at the guard position. With them 2 in the back court it would make the 1-3-1 that much better (because there big guards) and give us some overall team size and we would still have 5 guys that can knock down the 3. Not sold on Grady, plus I think that any of the other guard combo's that everyone on here has mentioned would give us size on the perimeter and allow us to cheat on are size down low, thus allowing us to do on offense what we like to do (shoot 3's) and on defense (deny the entry and force the outside shot). Anyway it's just really great that I, as a UM fan, can be this excited about BB less than a week after are season ended.

madtadder

March 24th, 2009 at 12:58 PM ^

I find it hard to believe that the walk-ons won't be back. It's not uncommon to have multiple walk-ons (MSU has three) and Puls and Person are both Freshman, so it's not like they are graduating. I could see maybe Person leaving, since he didn't even see the court during any of our blowouts, but Puls got some decent time (for a walk-on) and would more than likely be back.

will

March 25th, 2009 at 9:06 AM ^

Is JB's offense just too quirky to have a true 6-10+ center? The way Griffin destroyed us inside, I don't understand why we dont at least have our eyes on a single behemoth. Do we have to have a center who can step out to 18 feet and make a jump shot to make his system effective, and that eliminates most big men from JB's recruiting? Does the 1-3-1 require too much speed or mobility for a 6-10 250 pounder? Or are they simply not interested?

TomW09

March 25th, 2009 at 10:42 AM ^

Um.... Cronin is 7'1" McLimas is 6'10", though clearly not a banger. Morgan is 6'8" and has some muscle. It's tough to find decent 6'10" 250 pounders that have any skill. So to answer your question, no the 1-3-1 doesn't require too much speed/mobility for a big guy. But that doesn't mean Beilein is going to take a ginormous guy just because he's ginormous.