From great, to good. Is Urban Meyer losing prestige? Why the Buckeyes need to win the Big Ten.

Submitted by Brandon_L on

On the eve of the Big Ten Championship I find myself thinking about the Big Ten conference, and all its wonderful mediocrity over the last decade in football. The Buckeyes have dominated the conference. They have won either a share, or an outright conference title six times since 2002. All six of these titles are Jim Tressel coached teams. During the tress era, Ohio State football competed against better competition than the Current Buckeyes have seen. For example, the Buckeyes won the Big Ten title five consecutive times from 2005-2009. After evaluating their strength of schedule on (http://www.teamrankings.com), the average strength of schedule from 2005-2009 was eleventh. Tress's Buckeyes had only one year that they faced a strength of schedule out side the top ten and that was in his last season at the helm.

So how about Urban's Bucks? Since Urban has taken over the Buckeyes they have sleep walked through the regular season only losing three games in three years. They have dominated Big Ten regular season play, but they have nothing to show for their efforts other than Rings that were provided by the athletic department in 2012. Everyone gets a trophy right Urbz? (http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/2013/04/ohio_state_buckeyes_get_rings.html), yes they got rings the year they went 12-0, and were on probation. Now how does Urbz Bucks, compare to Tress's dominate version? Lets compare strength of schedule. From 2012 to current the Buckeyes average strength of schedule is thirty second. This season it is forty second and dropping. Last year was the anomaly as the schedule strength beefed up to 21st because of Sparty, and Clemson. The two biggest test of the Urban Meyer era at Ohio State were failures.

This year was supposed to be different. Then the unexpected happens with Braxton Miller's injured shoulder, then they tripped over themselves vs. Va Tech at home, but out of nowhere J.T. Barrett develops and makes a run for the Heisman breaking records along the way. Then tragedy struck when Barrett broke his ankle against Michigan, and is now done for the season.

Here comes Cardale (I ain't here to play school) Jones. Hopefully he lives up to his famous tweet (see the link for entertaining reminder), (http://m.espn.go.com/ncf/story?storyId=8466428&src=desktop). If he truly is only at Ohio State to play football he should be prepared for the biggest game of his life and of the Urban Meyer era.At least the Buckeye faithful hope so.

This Big Ten Title game is important on so many levels for Urban Meyer, who did not receive a contract extension for his performance thus far. It's been three years of falling short for some reason, or another. You had probation in 2012, the best Michigan State football team in its history in 2013, and now you are down to your third string QB, and are facing a Classic pound the football, play action Wisconsin football team. The Buckeyes should honestly be favored in this game. why should they be favored you ask? The reason I feel they should be favored is that the Badgers have fed off of a weaker schedule than the Buckeyes this year ranking at number fifty three in the nation. Wisky did nearly beat LSU to open the year, but eventually were exposed for what they are, a one dimensional football team. Joel Stave would be fourth on the Buckeyes depth chart. Melvin Gordon is the centerpiece of the Badger attack, and with a big game he could win the Heisman. The Buckeyes will certainly key on Gordon Saturday Night. If the Buckeyes struggle to stop Gordon, Wisky will play keep away all night. This will be the plan for Wisconsin and I think the plan can work.

But Urban needs this one desperately. I had made a comment back in 2012 that Urban would not win a Big Ten Title before Brady Hoke. If the Badgers win I will be partially right about my guarantee from 2012. Hoke will obviously never win a BIg Ten Title, but I'm going to hedge my bet, and say that if Urban doesn't win this game Saturday, whoever coaches Michigan Next, (Insert the many Names here), will still win a title before Urban Meyer.

So Urban, how important is this game to you? The Buckeyes are always so focused on National titles, but the truth of the matter is you have to win the Big Ten Title, and let the rest take care of itself. A Buckeye loss on Saturday means it was all for nothing again. Urban as of now remains the second best college coach next to Saban, but a loss on Saturday will prove Urban is just a good coach at this point, not a great coach, and the conversation of whether he can still win the big game at the highest level will become the topic of conversation in Columbus, and on the national level. A win will almost certainly get the Buckeyes in the College Football final four, and Gene Smith can finally extend Urban Meyer's contract because they actually won something.

Comments

flashOverride

December 6th, 2014 at 8:30 AM ^

Yes, I've noticed how much this lack of a contract extension has begun to hurt Ohio State's recruiting. Sure, those idiots at 247 have them #5, but the rest have them way down at #6. FIRE URBZ

OccaM

December 6th, 2014 at 7:42 AM ^

Tbh Urbz has caught a shit ton of bad breaks the past few years. Doesn't he only have like 1 conference loss in 3 years? Contract extension talk is just fruitless imo. It's still Urban Fucking Meyer. 2nd best coach in the nation behind Saban. 

Only Saban (shit maybe not even Saban; Belichick with Cassel) can break in a brand new QB in the season, and still make a team compete for the title. Oh did I mention Urbz has only lost 1 game in the B1G the past 3 years? 

I think he would have at least 2 B1G titles (possibly a Natl Title) by now if it weren't for sanctions and injuries. The fact that his teams look more human, however, is an indictment on midwestern recruiting imo. There are no Tebows or Harvins on his OSU teams compared to his UF ones. 

I wonder if Michigan ever even considered him in 07... I'm sure he would have taken a hard look at us. 

flashOverride

December 6th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^

Small sample/anecdotal and all, but I can remember Urban's name coming up on message board coaching change discussions in 2007, and being shocked at the number of, "Yeah, fuck no" comments I saw*. I hope this fanbase has grown up some since then, because today we live in a world where people are tweeting about Paul fucking Chryst as if he's a serious candidate for head coach at Michigan.

*To be fair, I lived in Ohio from 2008-2010, do not let a single Buckeye ever try to tell you they didn't absolutely hate Urban Meyer too, right up until the moment of Tressel's resignation. They at least had the 41-14 ass-kicking as a reason to hate him, I'm not really sure why we did 

bjk

December 7th, 2014 at 1:36 AM ^

there was talk of UM meeting OSU in a title-game rematch.

Then Gary Danielson and Urbz went on a concerted whine-fest ending with Urbz talking UF past #2 UM for the playoff slot.

OSU and UM were both exposed as less than their rankings in the resulting matchups.

Urbz undignified self-promotion of the time coupled with Lloyd's stoic detachment ended up working in Urbz favor. This made it imperative that we suppress the SEC speed meme when UM met UF in the Cap-1 bowl a year later, and fortunately, DeBord and Lloyd put up a one-time-only show of dazzling brilliance on their way out the door.

This was the beginning of the end of UM relevence for the time being, and to a lesser extent, the B1G as well.

The Time of Troubles actually began with Bo's passing and the adverse result of the 2006 OSU game, but after those, the memory of Urbz classless and self-promotional whining was the sound track of the beginning of UM's long decline.

I think he did alright tonight against Wisconsin.

flashOverride

December 8th, 2014 at 9:57 AM ^

So he politicked to get his team to the National Championship Game, like coaches do every year. Gosh, I hope a Michigan coach never lowers himself to such behavior.

Look, I don't like him as Ohio State's coach, but that's because he's good. The dislike for him on a personal level I don't really get, because I just don't find him all that objectionable. He's sure as hell no Dantonio, who I can't even imagine liking as person.

bjk

December 8th, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^

I hope a Michigan coach never lowers himself to such behavior.

Well, back then, Lloyd didn't. Moral victory, UM.

Through the Florida era, there was kvetching about recruiting tactics, off-field behavior, being dickish to his local press; the low-level stuff that goes to a roar if you lose and remains in the background if you win. There doesn't seem to be that much of it now, so maybe it was more a Florida thing than a Meyer thing.

In short, I, for one, hated him for out-talking us to get into the MNC in maybe the same way OSU fans hated him for beating them there.

DonAZ

December 6th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^

There's some truth to this.  Ohio State has not been invincible.  Michigan could have won in 2012 - 2014 with better coaching and better game management.  If we were looking at Urban Meyer three years in with two or three losses to Michigan, the Urban Meyer narrative would definitely be different.

Still, that said, he's a really good coach.  That can't be denied.  Is he the greatest coach of all time?  No.

charblue.

December 6th, 2014 at 11:07 AM ^

rather than dominant during the Urban Meyer era, only because the evidence gathered here supports the notion that Tressel fielded and directed more dominant teams based on a defensive mindset with sufficient offense to win as needed. Meyer's teams have this adequate defensive feel with a singular dominant unit, Dline this year, while operating with an overpowering offense or at least highly efficient offensive production.

Meyer is a great coach because he has managed to win in the league no matter what his roster circumstances with no letup based on developmental concerns at quarterback or Oline,  No team anywhere makes that kind of transition without some bump in the road.

The problem for Ohio is that when it comes to winning championships or beatng championship level teams, you must have a better defense than Ohio has had or plays with now.

I mean most would argue that Ohio beat MSU at EL this year and that signals its ability to get over the championship hump, except MSU was an offensive dominant team and tried to outscore the Buckeyes instead of playing a possession and clock-killing contest based on  a defensive gameplan. The problem for Sparty unlike everyone else in the league, is that Oregon gave a lesson on how you beat MSU deep and exploit their safeties in coverage forcing them to cover fast-breaking slot guys on verticals deep. No other team besides Ohio has fast-breaking slot types. Even Manball Michigan, which used to have a plethora of fast guys, has average speed and couldn't apply this strategy when it took on Sparty in EL, getting wiped out as a result.

So, this  has papered over the relative dominance of the Buckeyes this year, even when it balooned a couple of late season matchups with Minnesota and Michigan with seemingly healthy victory margins of two TDs or more. Wow, they must be really dominant.

Not so fast. Ohio isn't as good as any of the current Top Four, and would play high-scoring shootbouts with TCU and Baylor without beating either this year, Ohio remains the best in a weak Big Ten but it's not ready for big time primetime under Urban, regular season undefeated record notwithstanding. And I would feel this way if it had Miller and Barrett both available this season. Defensively, the Buckeyes are a buck short of national championship material.

DonAZ

December 6th, 2014 at 8:39 AM ^

A win will almost certainly get the Buckeyes in the College Football final four

That's a bold statement.  A win is required for the Buckeyes to be in that discussion, but a win doesn't assure anything.

One playoff slot is locked up (Oregon).  Of the other three (Alabama, TCU and FSU), all three are favored in today's games.  (But watch out TCU, Iowa State is tricky in these late-season games!) 

Ohio State's playoff chances require: (1) a good win over Wisconsin, and (2) a loss or really sloppy win by FSU. 

I can't see any scenario where Urban Meyer is not retained by Ohio State.  As others have noted, he's definitely a top-tier coach.  He stays at OSU as long as he wants to stay at OSU.

DonAZ

December 6th, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^

I think it's pretty tough to leave the undefeated defending champions out

I hear you ... but I think there's sentiment in the committee to cast a wary eye at FSU for their play this year.  In previous years an undefeated FSU would be ranked #1, but with this year's mechanism they're #3.

A FSU loss to GT will push them out of the playoffs ... unless a lot of other losses take place.

A FSU win keeps them in the playoffs ... unless the win is just horrible.  I'm not talking close.  I'm talking GT trying their best to hand the game to FSU, and FSU acting like they don't want to win.  It's unlikely ... a win by FSU pretty much assures they're in the playoff of 4.

charblue.

December 6th, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^

In the NFL, they don't judge victories based on performance in securing them. If you win, you win. Nobody in the NFC South is feeling sorry for itself even though it may have a divisiob winner with less than a .500 record.

I think FSU is absolutely better than the Buckeyes regardless who their quarterback is. And they will take out Georgia Tech tonight in rainy Charlotte.

Alabama will throttle Missouri and Baylor and KState probably play a close contest. I see no way the Buckeyes claim a playoff spot with a win over Wisconsin.

The fact is, Ohio lost to Va Tech which is a middle of the pack ACC team. FSU has beaten everyone it played, and it played a better non-conference schedule. I think offering performance categories as a means to grade performance is a matter of charlatan politics and performance theater before the final verdict is rendered, which then becomes simple math and recognition of the best based on record achieved. You go undefeated, you're in, fuck game control.

When Ohio beat Purdue on a final second Hail Mary way back in 2003, nobody complained that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to play Miami in the NC game because they had to beat the Boilermakers on a prayer. And nobody ought to bitch that the Seminoles got a penalty break against ND which allowed them to hang on for that win when it appeared lost or that they took out Clemson with a backup making the biggest play of the season at the time. You win, you're in, W's are the bottom line and the endgame, performance reviews are for pundits, the game is played and won on the field not off it.

Michigan4Life

December 6th, 2014 at 1:26 PM ^

I think GT beats FSU. Impossible to prepare for the triple option attack with 5 days to prepare. GT will have a field day against FSU defense IMO. Justin Thomas is probably the fastest player on the field and Broderick Snoody is right up there with Thomas so GT definitely has some weapons at A-back and B-Backs position.

caliblue

December 6th, 2014 at 2:00 PM ^

So he stays as long as he wants. I can't see OSU becoming irrelevant in the B1G as we are now. Only a Cooper like record against us would be a big enough issue. That record would take several years to happen. Poor Bucks, stuck with such a loser of a coach that we would be ecstatic to have. Yeah the luster is gone.

Former_DC_Buck

December 8th, 2014 at 7:32 PM ^

Most of us weren't around before then.

Hayes - Fired because he struck an opposing player. Even Boys thinks it may have been a blood sugar issue, but I do think there was not a lot of choice and /or there was a feeling he was Paterno like and maybe the game had passed him by and they took advantage of it. I'll go with they had no choice, but I see the cynical side as well.

Bruce - A nicer, more dapper Bo Pellini. 9-3 most seasons, never sniffed a MNC after his first season with Woody's guys. Did OK against Michigan, but fired because he wasn't winning or even in the running for MNCs.

Cooper - Our more successful version of RichRod. Outsider, had a different (thought not as different as RichRod) approach to the game. Had some decent highs, but worse lows than Bruce and was absolutley dreadful against you guys. If you had a Mt. Rushmore of favorite coaches, it would be Yost, Bo, Crisler and Cooper. Fired for the Michigan losses and a couple bad seasons.

Tressel - Lied and covered up and fired for it. Or threw himself on the sword. Or was just trying to protect his guys. Whatever your view, like Woody, but more so, OSU had to let him go. Not due to a lack of wins over Michigan or wins in general. Yes some unhappiness with the last two MNC games, but otherwise had a winning BCS bowl record.

Fickell - Couldn't beat Hoke. Seriously, was in over his head and was a placeholder while we tried to convince Urban to return to coaching at one of his early coaching gigs. Not quite Harbaugh coming home, but some spin it that way.

I will admit, prior to Woody we were called the graveyard of coaches, but like I said, that was before most of our times. Of the last 5, 3, if you count Fickell, who was demoted, were let go for on the field failures. 2 for issues not related to wins and losses.

treetown

December 6th, 2014 at 9:39 AM ^

The Big Ten hierarchy would love to see OSU win and basically get a spot in the first final 4 of college football. A lot of people outside of the Big Ten would of course love to see a Wisconsin win to shut the Big Ten out.

If Georgia Tech wins or takes FSU into OT or is dominating the game, it might knock them out.

Ideally this first time with a selection committee we end seeing:

1. Establish the precedence that winning the conference title is critical - this helps preserve the validity and importance of the regular season.

2. Establish the importance of head-to-head when comparing two otherwise similiar teams. Baylor TCU is the issue.

3. Early season loss(es) are not critical - late season performance trumps that - this would encourage more teams to play a tougher non-conference schedule.

4. Inevitably we'll see an expansion to 8 teams. It would be easier to argue about which second team from a conference to include than which conference champ to exclude.

5. This would lengthen the season which right now is potentially 15 games long (12 game season, league champ game, semi, final) - basically a pro schedule - dump the cupcake non-conference games (all of the FCS teams are gone in the future)

 

Heismanblue33

December 6th, 2014 at 9:50 AM ^

I think that everyone has forgotten that until you have lost, your still No.1.....FSU has not lost and they are the retaining NC's. Bama has one loss and b/c they beat an up and down Auburn team they leap into number one before they even play for the SEC championship game!? OSU will only get in if any of the teams ahead of them lose. If they let OSU in if FSU has a sloppy game but still wins and is still undefeated then the playoff system will already be a flop and useless. NO team in the top 4 or 5 has a very hard strength of schedule this yr, so if your team is the NC's from last yr and still hasn't lost a game in 2 yrs how on earth can they not be the No.1 team comparing the other top five teams strength of schedule, wins and losses, top wins, and bad losses. Seems to me the playoffs are already headed in the wrong direction

m1jjb00

December 6th, 2014 at 3:28 PM ^

I think you have forgotten that it's a new season.  Much of their defense is in the NFL.  FSU has won only 12 games.  They haven't even won the ACC, so they're not national champs.  

Now, if you want to argue that because they're 12-0, they should be the number one seed, that would be a defensible view.

If you want to argue that the experience Winston and other had from last year give them an edge that other teams don't have, fine.

But I don't think last year's performance entitles a team to anything this year.

m1jjb00

December 6th, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^

I think you have forgotten that it's a new season.  Much of their defense is in the NFL.  FSU has won only 12 games.  They haven't even won the ACC, so they're not national champs.  

Now, if you want to argue that because they're 12-0, they should be the number one seed, that would be a defensible view.

If you want to argue that the experience Winston and other had from last year give them an edge that other teams don't have, fine.

But I don't think last year's performance entitles a team to anything this year.

Shaun

December 6th, 2014 at 11:03 AM ^

You compare Urban to Tressel and say "It's been three years of falling short for some reason, or another."

1) It hasn't been 3 years of anything. OSU is in the B1G championship game and could very possibly make the playoff. How about we see if they win or lose the B1G before calling this a failed season, eh?

2) The 2012 season Urban went 12-0. How in the world is that falling short? 2012 was a huge success, taking a 6-7 team to go undefeated. The fact that they were inelligible should make the accomplishment even more impressive. Year 1 = huge success.

3) Tressel never had to play B1G championship games. If Urban were playing under the same championship system (and weren't inelligible in 2012), then Urban would be a perfect 3 for 3 with B1G championships and probably would have played in the NC game last year.

You can't asked questions about whether OSU would do as well against the teams during the Tressel era without acknowledging that OSU would already be the conference champion right now, in a season that you are alluding to as "failed."

A more reasonable narrative reads:

2012 - A+ coaching job, stayed home due to outside forces

2013 - Would have won the B1G under old rules, lost to 2 best teams they played, disappointing ending

2014 - Lost Heisman contender at QB, expected to lose 2 or 3 games, instead makes the backup a Heisman contender at QB, on the verge of playoffs and B1G championship when backup gets lost for the year also, pretty rotten luck, now on QB #3 and TBD

But that's not really a narrative that matches the one you were looking for...

charblue.

December 6th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^

records are only superlative when you win championships, and Ohio hasn't won a Big Ten conferencer championship under Meyer despite never losing a regular season game.

Injuries are part of the season and it sucks that Ohio lost Miller and then Barrett and will play with a third stringer tonight against Wisconsin, But the Buckeyes have also benefitted over time playing shorthanded teams at quarterback, so I feel not one bit of sympathy for them. If Meyer is this super coach that everyone brags about in Ohio, then he'll find a way to win,

Tressel beat Michigan with a freshman qb making his first-ever start in The Game. He won with Troy Smith as a freshman and he won an NC title with a qb far less talented as a passer and runner than what Meyer has had to work with during his brief tenure,

What Meyer doesn't have since coming to Ohio is a team with a dynamic defense. And that is why his team isn't complete and not championship-worthty no matter how many wins his team has secured in a row. When you play a championship game or one where the opposition has complete time and energy to focus on your weaknesses, you must overcome them, or face the music.

Meyer is in no danger of not being retained as the Buckeyes head coach, and the length of his next contract and raise will only be determined by the margin of loss or victory going forward. If he beats Wisconsin, I will be surprised.

Shaun

December 6th, 2014 at 12:35 PM ^

My biggest complaint is the author seemingly trying to say that "no championships in 3 years, Meyer must not be very good." In reality, Meyer is 0-1 for championships. He was denied the opportunity in 2012 (and would have likely won). In 2013, OSU lost to a great MSU team. That's a fact, but MSU won the Rose Bowl. They lost to a good team, it happens. 2014, everything is stacking up against OSU, but the game hasn't been played yet, let's wait and see.

Meyer is 3-0 vs Michigan so I'm not sure why it matters that Tressel beat Michigan with a freshman QB.

Urban's defenses haven't been great, no, but the game has changed a hell of a lot since 2002. Who has a great defense? Bama? The Bama that just gave up 44 points to Auburn? Tressel lost 2 national championships in a row with a great defense because his offense couldn't keep up with UF and LSU.

Anyway, the point is that this post is very premature. If OSU loses tonight, everyone will rightfully say: "Well, they had some really tough luck at QB, but they made the best of it. That's a good coaching job." I'm sure there will be crazies out there, but crazies will be crazy. And if OSU wins tonight, then this whole post is just ludicrous, as this season would have been an incredible coaching job.

MonkeyMan

December 6th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^

I have long argued that a conference has a subtle but powerful effect on the teasm that are in it. The SEC and PAC 10 (or whatever) shape their teams by quality of play and style. Kidsa develop opinions of themselves wihich affect their razor edge efforts based on their opponents. I think the Big 10 has a weakening effect on all its teams and leans towards a power football model.

I do not see OSU getting another NC in the Big 10 as it's level now.

PS- do not type while on a treadmill