WTKA Roundtable 12/7/2023: Oh You Polished
Things Discussed:
- Al Borges has groupies.
- Iowa takeaways: 26-0 was good. Can't be 26-3, needed to come down after the intensity of OSU.
- Offense missed some opportunities: get a catch from Barner or Loveland and it looks different.
- Love that they gave Semaj Morgan another chance to get on the mic.
- Using Edwards: get him running, not reading.
- Sainristil: He's going to be drafted. Iowa: yes, but there were non-Iowa moments. He's playing cornerback very well.
- Portal talk: Not worried about Trente anymore. Walter Nolen? Sam says they need clarity on whether he's even in the portal. Hard to move on a QB when you don't know what you've got. They're in on the OL from A&M. Can't offer starting spots.
- CFP: Absolutely got it wrong. FSU had a better end to the season than Alabama, their 2nd string QB will be back, all of the arguments for Alabama are ridiculous post-hoc excuses for putting an SEC team in the Playoff. Michigan ends up better off because Texas is a tougher matchup than Bama for Michigan.
- How good you are is what you've done this season. They put Cincy and MSU in the Playoff; they've never chosen the S&P+ teams—always the most deserving.
- Brian: If Michigan wins out Harbaugh should offer to split it with FSU. If Alabama and FSU win out, FSU should be the national champion.
- Hoops: Defense isn't the sum of their parts.
[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment 2 is here. You can watch the video here:
The Usual Links:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
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Direct download link (right-click/save as)
- What's with the theme music?
If it's not important I know it.
December 7th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
No offense to Brian, but yes you shoulda got Blake to fill in for him on this one!
Also, Craig Ross isn't wrong about Neil Diamond but as a first-gen Asian-American, "America" is an S-tier patriotic song that works because of and in spite of Diamond.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
Physical property of conservation of BCs.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
BCs can neither be created nor destroyed?
December 7th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
The most compelling argument for Alabama over FSU is that I'd much rather Michigan play FSU. I think I heard someone say that right after the game, something like "go ask Coach Harbaugh who he'd rather face?" So it comes down to the endless argument of should it be the "best" teams right now, or the "most deserving." If it's best, and most people agree they'd rather play FSU, then it has to be Alabama.
December 7th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
I think two things can be true. But the biggest question is who is to say Alabama is better than FSU? Look at the Oregon/Wash line, 9.5 pts, and Washington won. You play the games for a reason and FSU played them and won. They won their games, they won with a backup QB (irrelevant essentially), and they should reap those rewards.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
💯
There is the additional concern of opt outs. No one opts out for Championship games...yet (pls check me if someone knows of someone who has done this.)
https://www.si.com/college/fsu/football/florida-state-star-wide-receiver-opts-out-of-orange-bowl-declares-for-2024-nfl-draft
Consolation bowls are bullshit. The entire FSU team should opt out.
Beat Bama. Go Blue!
December 7th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
With Alabama, we have to ask which version of them we're getting. They beat Georgia, yes, but they also needed a near-miracle to beat a 6-6 Auburn team that had lost at home to New Mexico State by 21 points the week before. And while I'm sure that Auburn was hyper-focused on beating Alabama, shouldn't Alabama have been hyper-focused on beating Auburn?
December 7th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
You're absolutely correct. I'm sure MSU was hyper-focused on beating Michigan this year and they still suffered the worst loss in their stadium's history... Georgia barely beat a 3-win GT team who lost to BGSU. The SEC had a 7-9 record against OOC P5 schools. In a vacuum, each of these SEC failings can be explained. Put together?? Not so much. Maybe, just maybe, the SEC is just an ok conference this year (gasp).
December 8th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Yes, on paper, the SEC was not an elite conference this year. Their strength of schedule probably gets a boost due to the questionable assumption that the SEC is superior. Georgia didn't play any good teams outside the SEC and was #1 based on their performance in prior years. And then they lost to a Bama team which lost to Texas at home, barely survived a crappy Arkansas team, struggled against a crappy USF team and needed a miracle to beat a bad Auburn team. How good is Georgia this year actually?
Unfortunately, Bama has a lot of talent. And anything can happen in one game. So they will be tough. But they don't deserve to be in the playoff.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
Should Michigan have been hyper-focused on beating Maryland? They still pulled out the win and then beat Georgia (just like we pulled out the win and then beat OSU), so it seems like their focus was probably in the right place.
The biggest argument for keeping Bama out is that we already have evidence that another team is better than them. However, if you look at Bama's and FSU's schedules, FSU's best win was against LSU, whom Bama also beat. FSU's next best win was either Louisville, Miami, or some other mediocre ACC team. The teams that Bama played that are ranked higher in SP+ than FSU's second best win: UGA, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, TAMU, and Tennessee. So, Bama played two teams better than FSU's best win and went 1-1 against them.
The argument that FSU is an undefeated P5 conference champion rings hollow to me, because P5 means nothing anymore and the ACC, outside of FSU, is the worst of those conferences. You can't just say that 13-0 conference champions should be in because then Liberty would need to be in as well.
The best argument for FSU is actually an argument that Bama shouldn't be in because they already lost a play-in game against Texas. However, that would not be indicative of FSU being one of the best 4 more most-deserving 4 teams. That would have to be an argument that the playoff isn't about the best 4 teams, but about finding the best team, which means using the playoff to gain as much information as possible, but that gets messy fast too.
This whole thing is unfortunate for team 5, no matter what had happened. It's why we should have been at 12 teams a long time ago. Given that we're picking the best 4 of 5 deserving teams, someone was getting screwed no matter what.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
Brian used to argue that 6 was the correct number. I suppose because the 7th ranked team was obviously not the best because they usually have 1 or 2 losses already. I never liked that because I don’t like byes. If we’re saying we know who the top 2 teams are (6 team playoff) or who the top 4 teams are (12 team playoff), then the first round is just a money grab. I much prefer an 8 team playoff. Conference champions plus at-large teams with the best resume.
The wild-card/play-in round in baseball has killed the concept of determining who is the best team. The best regular season teams get a week off to get rusty and then lose to a wild card team that has a couple pitchers get hot. Next season, we’ll have a first round for teams 5-12 to knock the rust off while teams 1-4 sit for a month. It’s beyond stupid.
December 8th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
Next year, we will not only have arguments about the last team in/first team out, but we will also have arguments about the last team to get a bye / best team that plays in first round. Should have been 8, or incorporate the ccgs and make it 16.
Next year, the third ranked SEC team will have a good chance of making the playoffs. They get a "bye" the week of CCG while SEC 1 and 2 battle for a bye in the playoffs. So, they're better off than the loser of the CCG and, from a playoff perspective, not much worse off than the winner.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
But Michigan & Maryland =/= Auburn & Alabama. The former was not a big game for Michigan. The latter was a big game for both teams. Alabama--just two weeks ago--underperformed in a big game. They aren't just the team that beat UGA.
December 8th, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
The point is that teams under-perform all the time and Bama still won the game. Hell, FSU - just two weeks ago - under-performed against Florida, probably in part because they were looking ahead to the conference championship.
Again, FSU got screwed. They got screwed due to there being 4 spots and 5 deserving teams and they played in the worst conference of the 5. If Bama had not played Texas, they'd have been 13-0 with a better schedule than FSU. Leaving them out would have punished them for playing a harder schedule than FSU. Neither option was fair, but the committee was probably right that Bama was a better option than FSU in this situation.
December 8th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
There are a number of flaws in your argument. Your assumption that all those Bama SEC opponents are good teams may not be valid. Strength of schedule is a suspect metric since SEC teams are boosted by an assumption of their superiority. The SEC was 7-9 against other conferences this year, 4-6 against the ACC. FSU was 2-0 against the SEC including a demolition of one of the better SEC teams, LSU. Georgia didn't play any good teams outside the SEC so we really don't know how good they are. Bama did not look very good most of the season against middling or poor teams and got a ton of credit for one win against a Georgia team which may or may not have been good this year. And it's also worth noting that Clemson's two recent national champions did not have a great strength of schedule either.
With 5 power conferences, a 4 team playoff is not enough and it would have been best if all conference champions are represented. But since that wasn't possible, you can't leave out an undefeated power 5 conference champion in favor of other teams with losses, especially two of them.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
I don't think it matters. FSU's defensive line would've eaten our OL alive and their skill position players are good enough that even a backup QB would've made it a dangerous game.
As for Alabama, overall they're not that great. But I don't like the Harbaugh vs Saban matchup. And Milroe's escapability is a real wild card.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
There are two reasons why Michigan, and its fans, want to play FSU more;
- They're working with a back up QB. And lets be honest, nobody here believes that Rodemaker is the threat that Travis Jordan is. But Rodemaker won games for them.
- FSU's resume isn't all that. Seriously - Duke had them beat in Tallahassee until Riley Leonard's ankle gave out.
Nonetheless, FSU won all their games - including each game they played against an SEC team - and kept winning with backup QBs. The SEC didn't...
FSU deserved the nod as the better team.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
It’s a maliciously disingenuous question because the obvious answer is “FSU because they deserve it” but SEC knob-slobbers are chopping off the meaningful part and replacing it with “because Alabama is scary”.
No, I’d rather face FSU because FSU is undefeated and Alabama isn’t. Stop trying to bury the most obvious, relevant fact with bullshit.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
You're twisting the question. If the question is which team deserves it, then sure, FSU. That's not the question I asked, and sure, maybe Harbaugh would say he wants to play the most deserving team, which sounds like a hollow PR answer. Maybe that's even true for him. But I was going for "which team would Michigan (or, more specifically, I as a fan) rather play in terms of a path to the Championship?" I don't care about playing the most deserving teams or the best teams. I want to get past the fucking semifinal for once. And FSU presents an easier path, IMO. Ergo, Alabama is the better team right now, again IMO.
December 7th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
Okay, but why not do this across the board?
For instance, I wanted Washington to beat Oregon because even though that would given Oregon two losses to Washington on the year, I think at their best they are a better team.
Likewise, do you think Texas would want to play Georgia over Washington? What about Ohio State?
I mean, if you were going by order of teams opponents don't want to play it would probably be some version of:
Georgia
Alabama
Ohio State
Michigan
So why not just throw out all the results?
December 7th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
I think FSU should be in 100%. What sucks for them is that this year broke perfectly for them to be left out for the SEC champ (because barring two losses, there's no way they would have left Alabama out).
In 2015, you couldn't leave Michigan State out because the only conceivable teams you could put in were Iowa and Ohio State, both already beaten by MSU.
In 2021, the only team you could put in instead of Cincinnati was Notre Dame, who lost to Cincy earlier in the year at home.
This year, the committee absolutely would have left Texas out because the Big 12 isn't viewed on the same level as the SEC...except they couldn't because Texas beat Alabama earlier in the year.
If Texas had played and beaten Georgia by 10 at Georgia and the rest of their season went the same way, they would be out.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
Georgia is going to beat FSU. Kirby Smart is not the type of coach to see this as a throwaway game because he missed the playoffs. He is coaching for three years down the road. Thats how he is. And I love that about him.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
Very here for Craig dragging Neil Diamond.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
Neil Diamond doesn't get dragged nearly enough.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
- Brian: If Michigan wins out Harbaugh should offer to split it with FSU. If Alabama and FSU win out, FSU should be the national champion.
Scott Frost: And any of these teams should split it with Nebraska and my mom.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
Love listening to these the last few years - maybe i missed it somewhere but whats Craig's association with the blog?
December 7th, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
Friend of the blog. Eldest statesman. HTTV contributor. Trotsky fanatic.
December 9th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Don't forget national treasure.
December 7th, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^
Ah, you missed the Ed Feng era.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
Having lived and taught in Flint, I second Sam's fondness for Flint guys.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
Disagree. FSU got boned, no question. Alabama is a better team and we would all rather be playing FSU than Bama which is indicative. If we win a NC, we aren’t going to be offering to split it with anyone. Sorry, but thats a crazy statement to make.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:11 PM ^
Also there were plenty of years in the past where two teams with equal records and one just got screwed by narrative. It's part of college football that the national champion is chosen by dubious means. Also, if Michigan wins the NC, we will have beaten Bama and Washington/Texas, meaning we will have three wins (including OSU over a depleted GA squad) better than FSU's best win. It would be wrong and we would be favored by about 2 touchdowns on a neutral field.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
- Brian: If Michigan wins out Harbaugh should offer to split it with FSU. If Alabama and FSU win out, FSU should be the national champion.
If FSU beats UGA. FSU should be in the playoff because the justification to have a playoff is that the championship is decided on the field. They still have a job to do on the field. If UGA beats them even though kids are sitting out and one of the undefeated teams wins out (please be M, please be M, please be M!), well, it's still decided on the field... UMich will have beaten the team that beat the team that beat FSU.
That said, while I was grouchy about splitting with Nebraska, I'd be fine with this one, they'd have a no-BS incredible season and frankly, the one-fingered salute to the committee by winning that game would be akin to our one-fingered salute to the B1G by beating OSU despite all they could do to stop us, and I can respect that.
December 7th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
Re QB and portal - It would be a shock if the coaches didint know what JJ is going to do.
There is a chance they just dont want to rock that boat with the playoffs upcoming.
FWIW - and I am no insider, but in a very random circumstance, was told second hand from a JJ family member, that "he is going pro this year". This was two days ago...
So if JJ's family is talking about it matter of fact, I am sure the team knows what's going on.
Don't shoot the messenger - take it for what it's worth.
December 7th, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
Depends on who the family member is. Mom or Dad, sure. Some aunt or uncle who hasn't seen him years, nope.
December 8th, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
one of the former...
And as I said, take it for what it's worth...
I realize there are people who try to pretend they no shit on here, but at the same time, mgo is a vast network which will occasionally run into people and things. This was one of those situations - very random and super surprising to me.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^
If Michigan's last NC had not been split with Nebraska in 1997, I could see UM/Harbaugh making the non-official statement that it is sharing the 2023 national championship with FSU.
Cant see the admin/Harbaugh sharing a NC in 2023 though, due to what happened in 1997. There are still too many of us who remember having to share the NC with a clearly inferior Nebraska team in 97'.
#GoBlue
December 7th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
Split it with FSU, but not 50/50. I propose an 87/13 split.
December 7th, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^
I get Sam's sentiment of having a month to rest and heal, but the idea of giving Nick Saban and his elite athletes a month to prepare worries me.
I think we can win, I hope we can win, but I won't believe until we actually do win. Just like the OSU game the last three years.
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