WTKA Roundtable 11/22/2022: There's No Need to Hate
Things discussed:
- Illinois: Super aggressive defense, got into Cover 2 from weird looks, went 6-2 front and brought down safeties. Plays were there to be made: throws are open, WRs need to catch them and JJ needs to be more accurate.
- Michigan took it two games at a time. Were afraid to pass until they had to. Had non-Morris ends trying to own the edge and the gap inside it so they could play two-deep, which is not an Illinois prep.
- Where are the RPOs? Having JJ run is a similar thing, but getting him in rhythm and getting the defense to keep extra defenders out of the play demands that sort of thing.
- Lots of Cover 1 and Cover 0 and M doesn't like to throw at guys in single coverage. Ohio State was paying attention.
- Injuries? Corum and Edwards will play but Sam's opinion is they won't be 75%.
- Seth: We're in the playoffs now, and you win the playoffs like you win in the NFL: my talent against your talent.
- Michigan went after Witherspoon way too much.
- Brian: The passing game is where it is because of Michigan's extreme run focus. Michigan ran on 2nd and 14 vs Cover Zero, and there's a reasonable explanation, QED. Seth: Like Kobe and Jaelin's threes, you gotta let them shoot through it.
- OHIO STATE: A defense of Junior Colsons, but you can't guess where they'll break down ahead of time. Need a "take what you see" approach. They're going to blitz and man up.
- Seth on hate: we don't want to go to Columbus because it's all about hate to them. Harbaugh's quote—and that's a guy who played in this game—is on. Sam: Hate's great! I love how emasculated they were after last year's game.
- If Michigan does it again, and Ryan Day is 1-2 vs Michigan, is he on the hot seat?
- Injuries: We dunno.
[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]
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Segment 2 is here. You can watch the video here:
MGoBlog Roundtable https://t.co/hz1ZXLyK5H
— The Michigan Insider (@michiganinsider) November 22, 2022
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He's already on the hot seat with the fans; he did nothing to prevent Michigan from going 11-0.
November 22nd, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
Maybe I’m just spooked from 2018. But why can’t OSU just replicate everything Illinois did on both sides of the ball and blow our doors off? Especially if we’re limited on offense with injuries.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
Why can't OSU replicate what Illinois did to Michigan offensively? Because OSU isn't built as a power run team with a variety of run schemes. OSU doesn't have the o-line to try and overpower Michigan's line.
Why can't OSU replicate what Illinois did to Michigan defensively? They probably could try, but Michigan also now has film on what Illinois did and can prepare accordingly if OSU tries to do the same thing. Also, OSU has been run on this year...Illinois not so much. The two defenses aren't exactly comparable stylistically. Not to say OSU won't try it
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
Let's also bear in mind that Michigan was running pretty damn well with Corum (over 100 yds in a half) prior to the injury. Illinois only stacked the box when he went out. Additionally, it was 8 degrees wind-chill with a gusty wind, both of which limit the passing game. Making Ill's strategy of stacking the box even more likely to be successful.
We're expecting mid-40s and no breeze on Sat, but more importantly: We may have both Corum and Edwards back. If we have our RBs #1 & 2, and JJ can connect on even a few slants and crossing routes, let alone a downfield pass or two, OSU will have to respect the passing game, opening up the run for Corum & Edwards.
November 22nd, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
Yeah, I think the wind is being undersold a lot on this board. I was at the game and the wind was miserable. It was swirling and gusty, and you could see the ball impacted in flight.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
Its last game of season, at this point you are who you are...Ohio State is basketball on grass on offense and will score Saturday, their defense has athletes but are not crisp, make mistakes, and can be pushed around. Pts will be there, can our boys take advantage?
Gotta get JJ on the move and use him as THE weapon.
November 22nd, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
That was depressing, I was optimistic before listening to this.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
Right? Listening to the media the last couple of days, there is this sense of hopelessness. Like all of our good players are injured, JJ can't pass, we don't have a pass rush, etc. And all of this came about this past weekend!
Balas (I know) says we lose by 10 because we just aren't that healthy. Meanwhile there is video of Corum handing out turkeys.
I like what Isaiah Hole said in his podcast. Things are just "strange" in Ann Arbor. Especially yesterday's press conference.
He went on to say that there is seemingly "subterfuge" going on.
November 22nd, 2022 at 5:04 PM ^
Brian predicted OSU 40-21 last year for The Game.
November 22nd, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
If Corum and Edwards are only 75% at best, we're in a heap of trouble. JJ would have to have the game of his life for us to have a chance.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
No doubt, we've got to score. OSU was held to 21 points only 2 times all year, once against ND and once against NW in a storm. They also scored 54 on a top 10 Iowa defense but then we destroyed that defense last year, too.
If Corum and Edwards are 75%, then JJ will obviously have to carry the majority of the offense. Even if our defense is improved over last year, we will need to score at least 28 and probably 35 to win. JJ must have a big day. The good news is that he is capable.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^
OSU’s offense didn’t score close to 54 against Iowa’s defense.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
"OSU’s offense didn’t score close to 54 against Iowa’s defense."
OSU scored 47 against Iowa's defense. We scored 27.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
It’s interesting to me that you just looked up the box score and said to yourself “Hm, only one pick 6, so it was actually 47 and this guy is so wrong” while ignoring the fact that OSU started drives at the Iowa 29, 27, 34, 32, 15 and 40 and Iowa had 6 turnovers. Technically, yes, you are correct.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
What’s your point?
OSUs defense had something to do with those short drives and turnovers.
If we had 6 turnover we would be ecstatic.
OSU blasted Iowa and MSU worse than we did. On the flip, we nuked PSU.
It’s ok to call a spade a spade.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
The point is maybe, just maybe, the #130 offense in the country had more to do with it than anything OSU's defense was doing.
I mean half of those turnovers were just terrible decisions from Iowa, and handing OSU the ball. Had they done that against us we would have put up 47 too.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
We had the same opportunities we face the same bad offense.
I get it, it’s not in vogue to compliment thy enemy.
But if we are gonna beat our chest about PSU then we have to be intellectually honest to allow the opposite to be true.
I think we can agree to that point.
November 22nd, 2022 at 5:07 PM ^
Yep. OSU D was there and the defender had two hands. Iowa offense was terrible....
November 23rd, 2022 at 4:02 PM ^
If you watched the game you would know their defense had very little to do with iowas horrible offense
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:40 PM ^
You asserted that OSU "didn't score close to 54 on Iowa's defense" which sounded like bullshit to me, so I checked, and it was.
As for getting the ball repeatedly in Iowa territory, OSU scored five TDs and three FGs. Considering the trouble Michigan has had converting red zone opportunities into TDs, criticizing OSU for repeatedly taking advantage of a short field is a bit odd.
November 22nd, 2022 at 3:07 PM ^
The point is that was not a good offensive game from OSU against a good defense. They put up 360 total yards which doesn’t usually correlate to 47 points, had short fields all day, and basically had the Iowa offense help them at every possible turn. Then you played the transitive card to imply OSU played a much better offensive game against Iowa than we did, which ignored the 6 turnovers (7 if you include downs) and 6 short fields. I’m not criticizing OSU for taking advantage of a short field, if you can’t see that a 6+ turnover game is an outlier I don’t know what to tell you.
You can go around finding games to be scared of OSU’s offense if you want to, but IMO Iowa shouldn’t be one of them.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
Disagree. I think Corum and Edwards at 75% is way better than anything Northwestern has, and they were able to rush for over 200 yds against the buckeyes. This will be a close game most likely decided by turnovers and officiating
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
I guess but I would assume teams learn from previous contest.
Rushing for 200+ yard without scoring touchdowns in the red zone my biggest fear.
It only takes 2-3 field goal (michigan) to touchdown (OSU) exchanges for us to be playing a game we aren’t comfortable with playing (passing)
November 22nd, 2022 at 3:16 PM ^
Did I miss the 75%? I heard Sam throw out 70% in the context of a hypothetical “let’s say they are X % healthy” but thought he also was clear that he wasn’t saying that was the case, or that he knew for sure.
I fully expect that if I turned on ESPN right now the ticker would say “Source: Blake Courm and Donovan Edwards to play Saturday at “75% health.’” with the source being this thread.
November 22nd, 2022 at 6:16 PM ^
That's what I heard - Sam offering a hypothetical.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:39 PM ^
It's worth bearing in mind that nobody is 100% by the end of November if they've been playing and getting meaningful reps.
Corum hasn't been 100% since week 1. We're going to have more of our most important players ready to go on Saturday than we've had in the last 3-4 games.
Jim has been making sure of it. Cut it out with the BPONE-ing.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
Oh man if Corum and Edwards are 75% this is going to be a tough one to win, and it was going to be tough with those dudes at 100%! I might have to rein in my score prediction of:
Michigan: infinity
an Osu: -4227
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
Does anyone else just watch Brian's facial expressions during this entire roundtable?
November 23rd, 2022 at 4:16 AM ^
The real question is why is this on YouTube but I guess the people want more Brian.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
Let's hope Corum and Edwards are better than 75% healthy.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:44 PM ^
In late November? I doubt anybody is better than 75% healthy on either team. Can you even imagine the kinda beating playing D1 FBS football for 3 months puts on you?
Everybody's hurting.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
The talent gap is close enough and the styles are different enough, that the one on one matchups are not going to be the determining factor. As long as Michigan does not turn over the football they are going to have a shot. OSU's offense is not a death star and they are not automatic, if Michigan can continue to take care of the ball and burn through clock, the pressure is going to shift back to the Ohio State offense. If Michigan doesn't give up explosive plays and makes OSU go the distance, the clock is going to be burning. Keep it close, play to our strengths. It'll be a dog fight, but forcing OSU into a *not a shoot out* is the way to give yourself the best chance to win.
November 22nd, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^
Basically agree with the premise as an overall strategy, but of course football is a game of one on one matchups. Marvin Harrison Jr vs DJ Turner for instance could go a long way to determining the game.
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
This Run Game Gambit is a helluva…gambit. Hope it works.
We all thought JJ was better equipped to take us to the next level. Time to cash in the ticket!
Lets go blue!
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
hm i can't see ryan day being on the hot seat if we win this weekend, not yet.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
I can, however, see him pulling out all the stops in desperation this week. Trick plays, going for it on fourth down, etc...
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:34 PM ^
you might be underestimating how petty that fanbase is
maybe
November 22nd, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
"I love how emasculated they were after last year's game."
Even if it were true, I suspect this notion is going to be irrelevant to this year's OSU team, especially in their own stadium.
The idea that we're going to just swagger into the Horseshoe and physically intimidate them into giving up is going to be put to the test.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
Yeah, I think about this a lot
OSU was stripped bare last year with 10 years of vengeance.
they aren’t as bad as we made them look.
We just need to survive the early game surge.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
While this alone won't decide anything, I would bet everything I own that they've been focused on redeeming themselves on the toughness front for the last 360+ days. Corum and Edwards being at less than 75% also makes the idea of running them into the ground seem highly unlikely.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:55 PM ^
The narrative from the Michigan side of the UM-OSU divide is that the 1969 game completely changed the dynamic of the rivalry.
Maybe so, but Michigan won just one of the following six games against OSU. The tide didn't truly turn until 1976, when Woody was in the twilight of his career. I'm old enough to remember the widespread grumbling among UM fans after 1974 and 1975 that "Bo can't win the big one."
It's possible that for Michigan, 2021 could be analogous to 1969.
November 22nd, 2022 at 6:27 PM ^
Or 1976
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:52 PM ^
Or... it's analogous to only 2021.
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
Lots of Cover 1 and Cover 0 and M doesn't like to throw at guys in single coverage. Ohio State was paying attention.
That and the almost-complete absence of pass pressure on D are somewhat terrifying. But I'm still trying to figure out how the hell Michigan managed to outscore Illinois 9-0 in the 4th quarter, so what do I know?
November 22nd, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
RE: Seth's Comment on the hatred in the rivalry. .I think he is saying this is a different type of rivalry than MSU.. if that's the point? Sure.
I hate Ohio and almost everything about it...
I hate the players that choose to go there. I hate Clarette, Pryor, Barrett, Carter, Haskins, Troy Smith, and on and on and on.
I hate the color red- won't wear it. I hate visiting that state. I hate driving through it, which I have to do regularly. I hate that they come here to summer because it is a more enjoyable place and we welcome them. I hate that we are nice to these people (including me), yet many of us are concerned to park near their stadium with MI license plates. My dad won't even go to The Game in Columbus anymore because of the stories we have heard. I hate Jim Tressell, that sumg ass hole. He was a world class POS and they replaced him with one of the biggest pieces of trash in the world- Urban Meyer. I hate woody. Tattoo gate, the cars, "Didn't come here to play school", Fields as an online student, "everyone murders" etc...
They are awful. Fuck Ohio State.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:50 PM ^
I like the cut of your jib.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
I actually liked this because it wasn't overly optimistic. Brian's articulating the reasonable (and, IMHO, correct) version of the concerns that are often expressed hysterically through the glory of the internet. People can properly criticize the hysteria, but there is a real problem with an offense that is so one dimensional.
Unless OSU completely shits the bed against the run for the second consecutive year, Michigan will need a great (given the context) performance in the passing game. That doesn't mean they have to throw for 350 yards or something, but if they cannot do enough to keep the threat of the pass viable, I don't think they can run the ball effectively enough to be competitive. We don't have a lot of evidence that Michigan can pass when they have to.
I think a part of this is the run dominate play calling making it difficult to get passing game reps. I also think a little bit of this on the schedule. Michigan played so few teams that threatened to limit their run game that they didn't have to pass against a functional secondary until last Saturday. It's hard to blame coaches for running the ball a ton when the other team simply cannot stop it.
November 22nd, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
Correct version of concerns? I feel like Brian is back into BPONE. It is like Michigan is the only team with all the problems and OSU is perfect. Worrying way too much about everything that could go wrong is not the way to enjoy this week. If we lose, we lose. But, OSU has not proven they can stop the run. There is no info that BC is not 100 percent. So, how about being positive for a minute rather than just looking at RBs are not healthy (as if it is confirmed), passing game won't work (as if having DE and Luke back won't improve the odds), no pass rush (as if having some new schemes introduced this week won't work), JJ did not run (did we not see JJ run plenty against PSU???).
What I am pointing out is that there is a plenty of negatives that are being hashed and rehashed and everyone is worried including the roundtable crew. I liked Seth's response.
Go Blue!
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^
Its football in November, every team is dealing with injuries of some sort, but for both DE and BC to be (what seems to be a good bit) dinged up sucks. If they are 100% healthy, I think we win the game in the same fashion as we have been all year...close first half, we wear them down second half.
This changes it all, can JJ win with his arm??? Can the WRs make those tough catches?? Not sure...who wants it more in those moments is what it will come down to.
No disrespect to Gash, Dunlap, Stokes...but just a whole different look and feel with them leading the charge.
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
Have a little hope! Jeeze. We played badly against Illinois. That is one data point amongst an undefeated season. OSU's rush defense has looked soft multiple times this year. We can exploit that, limit OSU's possessions and win. Same playbook as last year and the same one we've been executing on every team not named Illinois. GO BLUE
November 22nd, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
A 75% BC and DE will be really suboptimal, but at least some of that can be made up for with a really effective QB run game.
Might be the game for JJ to run for 100 and throw for 200, cementing his legend status.
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