This Week's Obsession: Spring Stock Watch
I say we call him "Quick Burst, Mo Hurts." Nobody is on board with me on this. [Fuller]
- The Question:
- Seth: After the spring game which player are you bullish on, and which are you hedging?
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The Responses:
Ace: Brian and I did a segment on this during the podcast, so I'll keep this relatively brief. (That's called a teaser, folks.)
MAURICE HURST had arguably the best performance of anyone during the spring game, lining up at multiple spots and blowing up plays at all of them. His first step, which was his greatest strength coming out of high school, is still very quick after adding weight, and he looks very ready to see a significant role this fall.
Given that some practice reports had him as a potential starter, it's hard not to be a little disappointed in Logan Tuley-Tillman's showing, which featured three flags and a couple olés. He was a major project coming of high school, to the point that this year was the earliest he could feasibly see the field, so it's not a devastating blow that he doesn't look ready yet. He has so much upside, though, that it would've been really encouraging to see him push into that starting five.
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Adam Schnepp: I was looking for a weakness. There had to be one; the practice reports had practically reached tall-tale status, but now I see why. It almost feels like I need to pick someone else because this is too easy, but I'm bullish on JABRILL PEPPERS. I know that we've been bullish on him since last August, but now it's like Raging Bull(ishness). Except not about boxing. Or self-destruction. I was really just going for the bull imagery here.
As a hybrid space player, Peppers is going to have to read run/pass and react immediately. On the Blue offense's first play Peppers peers into the backfield, reads the handoff from Morris, and comes off the edge to take out Shallman, limiting him to a one-yard gain.
While his run stopping was adequate for an HSP, I was more impressed with Peppers' coverage skills. He played almost exclusively with a seven-yard cushion and not only was able to jam guys who had already built up a head of steam but consistently re-routed them to the side he had a help defender. I can't find a good example of this on the video thanks to BTN's zoom-o-matic cameras, but Ace can confirm that if I tweeted the above as many times as I said it to him you'd all either unfollow me or think I accidentally set up a scheduled tweet.
I'm hedging on BRIAN COLE. It's important, however, to delineate "hedging" as separate from "disappointed with." It's hard to judge a receiver when they aren't targeted often, and doubly so as the offense's predilection for two- and three-wide sets often left Cole on the sideline. I expected him to compete for time with the known commodities; I did not expect him to have the same number of receptions and receiving yards as 5-9 walk-on fullback Joe Beneducci. I wouldn't rule him out as a contributor in the fall*, but I expected the ball to be thrown his way more often last Saturday.
*(I don't think any of the receivers have locked down a spot with the exception of maybe Darboh, who was lined up against a dude who'd been a corner for maybe four practices.)
[Jump for the defensive backs are gonna be good, even if the passing game makes them look so.]
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Brian: Dangit Ace and your getting to this question before I did: yes, we did a podcast segment on stock up and stock down guys and Hurst was our riser while Tuley-Tillman was our faller in separately-assembled lists verified by Price Waterhouse Cooper.
Failing that and some of the also-taken answers:
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| BWATSON! That's a good nickname for him right? BWAT! BWATTED! [Fuller] |
Stock up: BRANDON WATSON. Watson's high school tape was literally all him lining up an inch from the wide receiver's nose and riding them into oblivion. So it was bizarre when the previous coaching staff moved him to safety. I interpreted that as you usually do: this guy is not fast enough to play corner, so let's try him at safety. That greatly downgraded my assessment of his chance to play.
Now that he's back and corner and pressing the pants off people again he looks pretty dang good. He recovered to intercept a pretty well thrown fade; he blanketed a number of short routes; he looked like a contender for playing time. Maybe not this year, but certainly next year.
Stock down: ALEX MALZONE. I thought he might come in and be the kind of precocious freshman that college football has seen an increasing number of the last decade or so. The practice reports gave you a lot of hope in that department, at least insofar as that he was in the conversation with Morris or Speight and rarely out of it. What we saw on Saturday was a guy who needs to be 100% robotically, ruthlessly efficient to succeed a la Brady or Brees and is a long way away from that. Morris was clearly better; Malzone will have to wait his turn.
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Seth: Peppers stock right now is like investing in Google: sure it's a great company that is in the process of taking over the world, but the speculators are all over this.
I am going with a redshirt defensive back though, and dangit Brian and your getting your answer in seconds before I sent mine because the reason I asked this question was I thought BRANDON WATSON looked like Darqueze Dennard out there. What we knew about Watson as a recruit is that he went to that academy with Canteen, where Brandon majored in getting between receivers' electrons. Michigan's receivers are suspect so this may not translate against, like, Ohio State's bomb squad, but what I saw was a huge boundary cornerback who could utterly erase a receiver for however long it took to ruin Alex Malzone's day.
Even before his very nice interception I was pointing Watson out to people around me and watching him instead of the ball, figuring (correctly it turns out) they wouldn't get him on pore-o-vision. That was productive, as Jehu Chesson spent the better part of the afternoon within five yards of the line of scrimmage, and the video just shows a lot of Malzone glancing that direction before checking down to something on Jourdan Lewis's side.
Jourdan Lewis: our consensus number 1 cornerback.
Two times Watson wasn't in his man's grill. The first he allowed Ways to get over top of him but recovered to yank the ball out and intercept. The second he backed off when Chesson motioned inside on a third and long, then was all over the dig route (which is supposed to be a man-to-man beater), forcing a throwaway.
Prior to Saturday we knew the coaches considered Lewis-Countess-Stribling a big step ahead of the other corners, so I'm buying low. Given the scouting report on Watson matched both what I saw on the field and what Michigan would like to do with its nickel coverage, I'm bullish on what it means for M's pass defense in general. If as expected Wayne Lyons is your opening day boundary corner, it means Lyons looked better in August than what I just described.
Sticking with the "corners" sadly it's time to unload whatever shares of DENNIS NORFLEET you're carrying in your portfolio. Not that anyone was investing in him as a cornerback, but that went badly for reasons that are not changeable. As much as Watson's performance says nice things about what the coaches must be seeing from Stribling, Norfleet starting for the maize team says the rest of the cornerback depth, well...
I guess Ross Taylor-Douglas was at RB so that ellipsis only applies to Terry Richardson and Reon Dawson. Meanwhile Norfleet is a senior in a new offense that doesn't use slot bugs, and spent the last week or so on defense; sorry smurf fans, I don't think it's gonna happen.
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David Nasternak: If you were on Twitter, at all, during the Spring Game, you may have noticed that 'breakout players' were being MGoClaimed left and right—Watson, Bolden, Hurst, etc. If you were at the Spring Game (or watched it, I suppose), you would also know that while there might be a few players who wished there could have played better, there were also odd/mitigating circumstances that could have explained some of the discrepancies.
While I was tempted to talk about Lawrence Marshall or express my concerns with a cornerback being sat in favor of a former slot wide receiver (or flat-out steal 'Norfleet's future' from Brian), I've decided to go rogue! My breakout player from last weekend is Ian King!
photo: Marc-Gregor Campredon
Just less than 24 hours after Michigan's Spring Game ended, another Michigan outfit took the turf at the Stadium. The Men's Lacrosse team! While Michigan has had a sluggish start to their Varsity Program, last year provided a glimpse of hope and this year a chance to take the next step. I wouldn't exactly say that Ian King had a breakout game on Sunday...but he had a great comeback game. After scoring the 3rd most goals in the country by a freshman, in 2014, King started the year off by setting a Michigan single-game scoring record -8 points (6G, 2A)- in the second game of the season...winning the National Player of the week award in the process. Previous to the clash against Rutgers on Sunday, King missed the last 4 games due to injury. In his comeback game, Ian notched 4 goals to lead Michigan to their first ever Big Ten win. Although his totals are diminished due to injury, his goal, assist, and point averages are still in the Top 2 in the Big Ten.
Michigan's win over Rutgers was absolutely crucial to their season. Not only are both teams similarly ranked (43 and 44), only four of the six teams make the conference tournament (what an idea, Hockey!). So, if Michigan can knock off either Penn St or Ohio St -both home games- they should be able to secure a place in College Park, MD. Penn State has played a very difficult schedule, but sit at 3-7 (0-2) and score more than a goal less than Michigan on average. This should be Michigan's best chance for a win; however, with Ian King back in the mix, there could be more!
I know! I've very excited!
Agree on Watson, and I forgot about him in my diary.
The secondary will be fine, especially after Lyons joins. The only remaining concern on defense is at DE, where we'll be okay, though we might not have any gamebreakers.
Offense is a different story...two or three OL spots, one WR, the RB, and...oh yeah, the QB--all up for grabs. And not in a good way like the #3 safety (Thomas, Hill, and Clark all looked good). More like when you go to the grocery store looking for a ripe avocado and they're all bright green so you just take the one that you can barely press into with your finger but you're still not sure if you just pushed harder on that one.
I hope Harbaugh, Tolbert, and Co. help the boys work wonders this summer, because wonders are needed on offense.
I don't know who the motioning H back was in the clip Adam embedded, but dude got stoned. That's the kind of blocking that kills running plays. Yikes.
It was Kerridge.
[meaningful ellipsis]
Oooof. A senior returning starter. That's not very good.
On the other hand, that was Lawrence Marshall doing the stonewalling. Maybe it's encouraging that a RS Freshman is laying the wood to returning starters.
And it could be a mess up in communication. But that's Power O. Marshall is playing a 7T when the SAM rotates back (as Kerridge motions away). Kerridge then comes back into a BB position (between the OG and OT) and the Y-TE arch blocks to the SAM. That forces Kerridge to essentially get half of a step to get an adequate block on a DE. It also puts him in a very poor angle to play the DE inside-out. What this essentially means is that Kerridge catches him head on and the playside is dead.
I know a lot of teams adjust to a 7T by arch blocking with the TE, but you have to give your FB some room to kick if you're doing that. Kerridge has no momentum or angle on this play to make that block. Hopefully in the future they'll have a check for this and either let Kerridge motion all the way to the edge (thus inviting the SAM back forward, who is an easier block and further outside) or let Kerridge slide backward to make this block.
BWAT
BWATTED
I like it a lot.
I prefer Brandon Swatson. Bwat is just... I don't know. It sounds like something my five year old nephew came up with.
Not only does the DL have pretty good depth, but they've also got our former program-saving DC Greg Mattison coaching this group exclusively.
I expect big things here. D-##
If we can have only one dominant position group, I'd pick the D-line.
But yeah, better to have more than just one ...
Up: I would say Hurst, but I've been high on him for a couple years now. I guess I'll go with Bolden. He seems to be playing fast and living up to the hype finally. Hopefully it translates to when the pressure is on in earnest come this fall, but he looked like a different player out there, reading and reacting instead of waiting for the play to come to him.
Down: Gotta pick one of the receivers, hard to say who. I'll go with Mo Ways. I thought he looked fantastic during last year's fall scrimmage, but he doesn't seem to have made much progress since then, or even maybe took a step back. I dunno, maybe our secondary got better, but he didn't really separate himself from the DBs, or from the other receivers (who also couldn't get separation on non-Norfleet DBs).
Agree with Seth the most
Up - Hurst, Watson, Marshall, Bolden, Peppers (notice not 1 on the offense)
Down - Every single WR on the team incl Darboh who had misses you can't make as a #1. Chesson might be excluded. I knew they were sort of slow but their hands really hurt me. Malzone (although I had much lower expecttions than most since most guys tearing up NCAA are RS FR not FR). Every RB. LTT.
Don't think its fair to pick on Norfleet as he is not a CB. He is just someone MGo really overrates. We need better as our kick/punt returners. If he can make 10-15 plays a year as a scat back or slot guy that's fine. He is what he is. Not the "one tackle away from making a great play" guy so many has him singled out as. That was Steve Breaston early in his career.
I agree, there hasn't been a lot of discussion about the RBs. None of them stood out. A lot of this was due to the offensive line but not all of it.
Derrick Green doesn't look like he has improved much from last year. Deveon Smith still looks like the team's best option but he only had one good run. Ty Isaac had one run that didn't look good at all. He had a hole and he misjudged it. Harbaugh walked over to him after the play and I assume talked to him about seeing the hole and hitting it fast. That's what I was thinking immediately after it happened.
I've got stock up on the same guys everyone else does....but stock does is pretty much everyone else on the team.
Not really that many, but way too many to name just one.
It was an extremely unimpressive showing.
By pause for hope and not being an MGoDowner is that they split the team - which I've always thought was silly. We're not OSU - yet.
You can play a real game and split the teams 1st team offense and 2nd team defense vs. 1st team defense and 2nd team offense.
At least then we get to see real units playing together...AND you get to see 1v1 and 2v2. So I get to see our OL together, but also playing against the starting and not 1 starter and 2 guys who will be lucky to get mop up duty.
It would've helped the running game and the QBs as well.
but I think its part of the emphasis on competition... as long as you're not declaring 1's and 2's the depth chart is still open and guys are still competing. This is probably even more important going into summer since you want guys hungry and working hard
I think we are all reading way too much on a spring game that occured 3 months after coach got on campus. We know we have talent at most positions, and we know that we have a guy that can coach them up. I'm not really that worried about much on defense, and on offense the QB and WR are obvious worrisome areas. This isn't going to be a championship caliber team, but it will be in most games based on coaching and talent on 80% of the field alone.
I think we all figured the defense was/is going to be solid in 2015 and that QB was going to a huge question mark. I think most of us are just hoping Harbaugh can get decent play out of the QB. I'm not expecting the QB to really have any monster games in 2015, but I'd rather not see the QB have awful games in 2015 (turnovers, missed reads, bad passes, etc.).
If the oline can continue to improve upon what appeared to be some decent progress at the end of the 2014, I'm bullish on the offense. Not that it will remind anyone of Yost's teams 100 years ago, but if there can be a decent running game and a QB who can move the chains I think we'll be okay on that side of the ball - not dominant but respectable.
Let that go!
Let that go!
If the offense looked good, then does that mean the defense was bad, or vice versa? What I liked, from what I saw, was actual coaching during the whole game. These kids will be a football team next fall. I'm not getting too hyped up about any player. Not until they play someone they have to plan for.
So GO BLUE!
Maybe the offense struggled with being offensive because of the mixed lines matched against a good to probably great defense. A line of Mags, Glasgow, Kalis, Cole and the other spot ?might have produced improved results. If Drevno with his track record with linemen can't consistently get these guy's improving than these linemen were just hype. But I think the linemen will improve and then I would say the previous o- line coaching staff was not outstanding.
Shane looked better than I expected, but I'm not yet sold that he won't fall apart against a great defense. Can he be accurate, and not force, but throw the ball away? Check down to secondary receivers? Instincts you especially need against a tough D.
Malzone impressed me more in that game - remind yourself again that he's a true freshman (early-enrollee!!) with 14 college practices under his belt!! - by displaying those tendencies, and he looked to be in command running no huddle with a minute left. Sure, he needs some strength and mechanical work, but that's way more coachable. Can't coach cool-under-pressure.
I'm not saying Malzone > Shane right now, but I think he's got a much higher ceiling. By 2016 Malzone (possibly others?) > Shane.
Rudock's battle tested, and shown he's at least a pretty competent QB, and Harbaugh/Fisch should up his game to some degree - maybe significantly. I think he starts this year.
I'm not saying Shane's incapable, and not a hater - just my gut. Prove me wrong Shane.
As far as Norfleet is concerned I'm not that concerned. I am a bit more concerned than I was before the game (which was moderately concerned) but I'm still not ready to write him off yet. After all, why would the coaches debut one of their better kept secrets during a spring game? Other than Michigan fans who read blogs such as this one, nobody knows who Dennis Norfleet is. I bet they have a play or two designed specifically for him. A bubble screen or something of that nature. I'm waiting until the season starts before I write him off completely.
Your =/= You're
multiple times guyz!
I don't see any. All of the "yours" are possessives, e.g. "Dammit [person] and your [thing you did]."
Norfleet... a skill player that has been poorly utilized for most of his college career unfortunately. Maybe we'll finally learn to thrown some bubble screens or slants to him.
The WR's looked terrible for this season (hands wise), but maybe that means we'll bring in great talent that is hungry to work for a spot.
Darboh needs to work on things and he acknowledged that. Maybe, with a big glimmer of hope, Canteen and Cole will emerge as two big downfield threats.
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