spartans will... get overwhelmed by this guy [Patrick Barron]

This Week's Obsession: Expectations Go Boom, Defense Comment Count

Ace October 27th, 2020 at 12:10 PM

If you missed it yesterday, our discussion of the offense is here.

The prompt:

HOW HAVE YOUR PRESEASON EXPECTATIONS CHANGED SINCE THE MINNESOTA GAME

Brian: We've touched on two of the three things I bulleted but haven't talked about Gemon Green yet. That guy wasn't more than three inches from his guy when called upon except on the back shoulder/OPI event.

Ace: Which: fair enough, Chris Autman-Bell.

Brian: Crafty play, doesn't get called anywhere near enough, doesn't really change my opinion of Green's performance.

BiSB: They largely let the corners deal with Bateman and Bell one-on-one, and it didn't go apocalyptically.

Ace: Green looked like he belonged and has a lot of upside. That he was pretty steady definitely ticks my expectations up. He had good coverage on back to back slot fades to Bateman, even if Bateman slipped on the second.

Seth: Neither corner was allowed to get anywhere near the run game. It's a small data point for this idea that the offseason doom talk was about these guys' tackling deficiencies.

Brian: How often do corners in man coverage get involved on duo?

Ace: When you have Michael Barrett, Dax Hill, and Brad Hawkins, you have a lot of guys who get to the edge, too.

BiSB: Related: I know you've got Rashod Bateman, PJ, but back-to-back end zone fades on 3rd and goal & 4th and goal seems dubious. 

[Hit THE JUMP for... a pretty dang good defensive line, perhaps?]

Seth: What's he going to do, test the edges again? Did you see Barrett fly up from depth?

Ace: Well, testing the interior wasn’t that great, because the tackles at least made it so Mo Ibrahim had to work hard for his interior yards. The plays Ibrahim broke tended to be when defensive backs lost contain, and that tended to be when Hill was out and a true freshman took on the biggest role in the defense.

What I’m saying is: Carlo Kemp!

Seth: Or when Michigan got twisted the wrong way and left their linebackers at the POA. There was a lot of that stuff.

Brian: What are you saying about Carlo Kemp?

Ace:

I was trying to nudge the conversation in the direction of the defensive tackles looking generally fine and Kemp looking good. I didn’t see guys getting blasted off the ball, Jeter had a couple plays, Juice Welschof beat blocks.

Seth: I'm anxious to see the UFR on the defense. Michigan played a lot of games to get different players in weird gaps.

Ace: That’s Don Brown, though.

Brian: My initial impression is that the DTs weren't making a whole lot of plays other than that one. They felt about like they expected: better, just okay. We'll see how that bears out.

Ace: Yeah, not saying they were game-wreckers, but it was also nice that they weren’t a clear sore spot.

BiSB: A lot of Ibrahim's bigger runs came on the back side of they play, so at least SOMETHING happened on the front side other than insta-pancakes. 

Ace: Welschof flashed some upside and he could be a guy who gets a lot better over the course of a season. Hinton too. The others will probably stay level. Michigan also seemingly wanted Minnesota to plunge into the tackles on every RPO, so they were trusted to hold up to a certain level, and it was more than enough to keep the Gophers from holding pace.

Seth: They're still a group that Don Brown doesn't really trust to play it straight all the time, and when you stunt on standard downs you're going to get got eventually.

Ace: It’s college football in 2020. You’re going to get got on occasion if you do anything interesting. Playing it straight up is death unless you want to win 62-58.

Seth: Side note since we're talking pleasant surprises: Taylor Upshaw tracking that down from the backside.

Ace: I thought the gameplan was perfect for modern college football, the game where even Saban is throwing his hands up and saying bombs away. Everything stayed in front of the safeties. The plays the defense encouraged were the most low-upside in football: early-down runs up the gut. It’s not always fun to sit through but it’s effective.

Brian: I think they're still a little unhappy with how those runs went overall but the flipside was almost entirely deleting Minnesota's RPOs.

Ace: I’m sure Don Brown hates it with his entire being. But he adjusted. I’ll take that tradeoff even if Michigan isn’t a killer run defense. Make them beat you with death by a million tiny cuts.

Seth: They got a couple of their standard slants in a couple of times when Josh Ross didn't get depth, but he was out there doing the right thing, and when Minnesota tried it late it led to the interception. Minnesota also forced Barrett and Ross to flip jobs a lot, and both LBs hung in well. That stood out to me because it's been a way Wisconsin/MSU traditionally attacked Don Brown, and between Peppers and Hudson we never had a Viper who could really be a passable ILB.

Ace: Michigan held Minnesota to a lower yards per play than they had in any single game last year. A full yard better than Wisconsin. I was not expecting that and I thought Minnesota was overrated. Enough to say so in the preview!

Seth: Was that before or after OH NO YOU UNLEASHED SUPER SAIYAN KWITY PAYE? 

Ace: I was looking at the live stats all night and they were hanging around 5.0 before sackapalooza. This was a dominant all-around performance with great gameplans on both sides of the ball. I’m pretty pumped!

Brian: I don't know how seriously to take Paye grabbing the power mushroom late and doing all the stuff I said he was unlikely to do in the season preview. I want to take it seriously.

Ace:

That’s a mean-ass move to pull and he turns the corner at eight yards.

Seth: I thought after ten times Aidan Hutchinson ruined the edge protection that I had an idea how quickly an elite DE can redirect, and then Kwity changed that.

Ace: The inside move he had on the literal play before that was also nice.

Brian: The only thing that gives pause is that's the right side of the OL, which was replaced/out of position, and Minnesota's non-RPO passing game had horrible protection last year. Paye did do this kind of stuff against Indiana last year.

Ace: We know he’s a technician, so my main question would normally be about athleticism translating against better opponents, but… (motions towards Bruce Feldman)

Brian: The weird thing is that all the Paye takes from the offseason were about how he's this super athlete with no pass rush technique.

Ace: He destroyed the whole line. The inside move was on Minnesota’s left side.

And by god, this:

I think the ends are both very good.

Seth: I'm sorry I was still watching #65 two gifs ago, were you saying something?

Brian: That's not in question, the only question is whether either is an AA

Ace: Okay, cool, we’re on the same page. I was a relative skeptic about Paye and now I think both of them have a decent shot, though people tend to overrate these things just because there are a lot of good players out there that we don’t watch in nearly this detail.

Seth: Shh shh stop now so the sack doesn't get off the page.

Ace: (whispers) milton go vroom

Comments

Naked Bootlegger

October 27th, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^

Upshaw did some serious work on the DL stunt play near the goal line that went somewhat awry.   It wasn't a DK Metcalf-level chase down across the entire gridiron, but it was an excellent play by Upshaw to track down a RB destined for the end zone.  Recall that after this TD-saving tackle, Minnesota was held to a FG.   This was a difference-making play somewhat early in the game when the outcome was far from determined.

1VaBlue1

October 27th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^

That track down was OUTSTANDING!!!  And honestly, I'm kinda surprised that Herbstraight didn't call more attention to it.  I mean, Upshaw came from the far right side of the play (as far backside as you can get) and covered the width of the field to catch up to Rashid Ibrahim!  Yeah, I know Ibrahim was at 3/4 speed trying to pick a hole through, but that was just outstanding hustle from a defensive Big Ugly.

Ibrahim's 3/4 speed is still faster than most DL...

Mattinboots

October 27th, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^

I think Ibrahim is going to take some heat for this on film room day (so probably already did).  Not to takeaway from the track down, but Ibrahim, even after the cut, never accelerates.  He even looks like he let's off the gas.  My gut is he thought he was waltzing into the endzone and never felt urgency from Upshaw's presence until being pulled to the ground.

dragonchild

October 27th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^

My takeaways:

1) MGoBlog, next year, please don't get Zordich-ed again.  I swear, that guy thrives with a cloud of doom hovering over his head, and when it collapses into a black hole floating above his noggin and all things secondary are a wasteland of despair and death, he's ready to unleash a horde of All-American cornerbacks.  The most ominous sign this camp was that Zordich wasn't saying much at all, so there wasn't much negative either.  It's still a position of relative weakness but it looks like we have a #1 CB, after all.

2) Minny's O-line probably isn't good, but I saw DTs break through on multiple occasions.  Kemp, Welschof, even Jeter doesn't get Fat Guy Touchdown if he didn't arrive right after the fumble.  That Jeter was there at all, with no one in front of him, was a stunning development from last year.  That the DTs can't merely be single-blocked all day, that they can eventually push the pocket, that's something our DEs can work with.  That is a vast upgrade over Indiana doubling the DEs and daring the tackles to make something of it.  Maybe the DTs don't hold up to doubles, but if you double them then the DEs get single blocking.

Warinner gets MGoBlog's implicit trust, but Zordich and Nua are doing impressive work with the clay they've been handed.

Carpetbagger

October 27th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^

I didn't buy the CB doom and gloom, exactly because of Zordich, but Gray still underwhelms. I do hope someone passes him during the year. Green was pretty good.

Brian's (and others) relative optimism on the DT's is starting to erode my skepticism. I can see if the scheme was to encourage the give they might not look like the world beaters I wanted them to. They still get handled by single blocking way too often for my taste.

xtramelanin

October 27th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^

gray and paige hurt us in this game, literally the only true 'downside' to our defensive effort.  they got worked in routes and they lost contain on ibrahim's runs.  i'm sure they'll get a lot of coaching these next few weeks and hopefully 'in zordich we trust' will be an accurate motto, but i think there is a bunch of work to be done with those two. 

Carpetbagger

October 27th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^

Paige was in HS last year, I'm ok with his run-fit busts, that can be coached out. Especially given Hawkins had the same problem, and he isn't a Freshman (maybe it was Ibrahim making them look stupid?). He needs to find the weight room though if he is going to play Safety.

Gray I'm not a fan of. Naturally, given this is a Brown/Zordich defense we didn't see anyone else all day long (if we did I missed it), so I don't know if we have someone behind Gray who is "better" but the coaches don't trust them yet.

 

ak47

October 27th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^

Zordich is obviously a good coach and Green looked good but CB is ultimately a position that is heavy on raw athleticism which still just isn't there. Gray will never be elite, maybe Green can get to really good. That still leaves us with 1.5 good defensive backs when you really need 3. That is better than the half a worst case scenario involved, its still not great

Watching From Afar

October 27th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^

Similar to people proclaiming Milton is definitely going to be really good because this 1 game, your point 1 is still too early to tell. Early signs are definitely encouraging but let's not hand wave away all concerns, yet.

Minnesota basically only threw the ball deep twice and ran a crosser once. Both deep passes were completed (the Green one was OPI damnit) as was the crosser. While Gray and Green were in contact with the WRs as they went deep, only 1 was to Bateman and the crosser wasn't even close to covered (should have also been OPI on the pick but Gray wasn't keeping up regardless). Hill's coverage on Bateman's slant-go was better than Gray's on the post/go (whatever it was) and showed the difference between what a guy like Thomas/Hill could do versus what Gray did. Those endzone fades are only 10 yards so not a ton of room to create separation. Green's 2 PBUs were very encouraging.

OSU has 3 Batemans (talent wise) and a better QB than Minnesota. While comparing them to OSU might not be fair right now, the point is Morgan/Bateman/Bell aren't the best measuring stick for the CBs. It is still far too early to tell if Green and Gray will be able to perform like a top 3 CB unit in the Big Ten as Lewis/Stribling/Long/Hill/Thomas did, especially when they have less Safety help against a team that has more WRs to cover than Minnesota does (basically 1.5) and runs more than 3 routes.

Again, early returns are good and we should be encouraged. The rest of the schedule isn't too daunting when it comes to QB/WR combos and passing attacks, but to presume that Gray/Green are replacing Hill/Thomas 1:1 is a bit premature. Competition looks to be slightly down compared to last year with no Johnson at Minnesota, Wisco using their 4th QB, and PSU not having Hamler. Competing well against them should be doable, but that doesn't mean it was a reload at CB quite yet.

And on the flip side - If one or both struggle a bit over the next couple of weeks, people shouldn't proclaim the position to be a disaster and scream WE'RE SCREWED! The variances between Gray/Green's floor and ceiling aren't huge. We have a safe assumption of what they can do because of their coaching and general talent level. Let's not say one way or another they're great or terrible 1 game in.

dragonchild

October 27th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^

I'm not sure how we go from "It's still a position of relative weakness" to "hand-waving all concerns".  It sounds like you really needed to get this tut-tut off your chest, but next time please target a comment that you'd be actually refuting.  Or just comment as-is and not reply to someone else.  It's annoying because as a reply it's shoving fistfuls of nonsense into my mouth that no one is saying (we're ready to cover OSU's receivers now?  Says who?  Where??).  It's a waste because observations of this quality don't need the strawman treatment in the first place.  Your points are fine.  Have a little confidence and let your thoughts stand on their own.  Don't use me for a dunce.

Anyway, the concern going into the season was that Gray was our #1 CB by default.  If Green hadn't emerged then there is no question Bateman would've wreaked havoc.  Instead he had a relatively quiet day.  The best CB is the one who doesn't get thrown at; a CB doesn't need to rack up PBUs to make his presence felt.

Watching From Afar

October 27th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^

Alright man, take it down a notch. Apologies for putting some words in your mouth.

"Unleash a horde of All-American Cornerbacks" is quite the statement. Couching that later is still only a slight walk back.

"Position of relative weakness" in comparison to a #1 DE group, #1 LB group, and #2 or #3 Safety group is pretty open to interpretation. That could be the ugliest supermodel at a Miss Universe pageant level of "relative" or something greater.

"#1 CB" at Michigan is a pretty high bar. Lewis/Long/Hill/Thomas level good. Not sure we're there yet.

next time please target a comment that you'd be actually refuting.  Or just comment as-is and not reply to someone else.

We don't even get notifications of comment replies on this site. Sorry that my comment blew up your laptop/phone with... text you could scroll past if you checked your initial comment at all. I wasn't challenging your intellect or manhood. Regardless, we all know what "Zordich-ed" means when you bring it up. We've all been around here since he got hired. The immediate reference is when Hill and Long were sophomores and had to start after Lewis and Stribling left or Thomas last year after Long and Watson left. Hill/Long/Thomas came out and were studs but still had to play a few games for us to be sure. Go back and look at the 2017 Florida UFR. Comments from Brian such as:

"Impossible not to look at that and pine for Jourdan Lewis."

"Hill allowed an inside release, which I don't think I've seen on this kind of man coverage under Brown, allowed significant separation, and failed to react to the WR's adjustment. That's a flashback to some bad old days."

And that was after beating the crap out of Florida. That was then followed by a bunch of good reviews about guys beating the crap out of top recruits across the field. So, all I'm saying is maybe we take a beat to know for sure which way the position group will go.

as a reply it's shoving fistfuls of nonsense into my mouth that no one is saying (we're ready to cover OSU's receivers now?  Says who?  Where??).

I literally said "it's not fair to compare" Green/Gray to them right now and that my general point was an entirely different one. So who's putting words in whose mouth now? The overall point, not specific to your comment but on the whole CB situation, is we've seen 1 game against an offense with a good (not great) QB,1 great WR, and an OL that just gave up 5 sacks (and another half dozen hurries at least) in a weird ass season and limited tests thrown at those 2 CBs. Bateman was covered by Hill a ton for an entire half of this game after we heard Gray was going to shadow him last week. Turns out that didn't happen so it appears the coaches were more inclined to put a Safety over him (even Paige got him in the 2nd half a bunch) instead of their #1 CB in the slot. They also helped out with Safeties over the top from time to time specifically on Bateman on key downs. Relatively quiet game, sure, but it got a lot worse after Hill left and they put Paige on him for an extended period of time instead of Green/Gray.

As I mentioned, the Big Ten looks to have a lower ceiling when it comes to QBs and WRs this year because of departures/covid/general ebbs and flows of college football. So when brining up Zordich's track record, we're making comparisons to seasons with different competition levels (and retrospectively). If they do really well against Wisconsin, that's not really an indication of their skill so much as it's a confluence of both their potential and the fact that Wisconsin will be starting a 4th year player that has never thrown a pass.

the best CB is the one who doesn't get thrown at; a CB doesn't need to rack up PBUs to make his presence felt.

I'd argue the best CB is the one, that when thrown at, is (almost) always in phase having ran the route for the WR and makes the catch incredibly difficult (like Green did on the fades) or breaks it up. There's only 1 ball and if Bateman has 2 steps on Gray when he's the 2nd or 3rd read and Morgan gets his chest caved in by Barrett before he gets to that read, that doesn't mean the CB did a great job. It means Barrett killed a dude quick. We can't see the CB/WR battles because TV broadcasts don't zoom out past 10 yards.

Don't use me for a dunce.

That was certainly not my intention and I made plenty of statements shaving down both sides of the equation. It's not (yet) Lewis/Long and it's not early JT Floyd. Maybe "have a little confidence" in your assertions and don't take any critique to be an indictment of your intellect.

Carpetbagger

October 27th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^

I thought Brian putting Paye behind Hutch was crazy, but I didn't expect that game. To me Paye is the Nick Lidstrom of defensive ends. He's so consistently excellent it almost fades into the background how good he is.

Spitfire

October 27th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^

"I thought the gameplan was perfect for modern college football, the game where even Saban is throwing his hands up and saying bombs away. Everything stayed in front of the safeties. The plays the defense encouraged were the most low-upside in football: early-down runs up the gut. It’s not always fun to sit through but it’s effective."

Do you guys expect to see more of this type of defense this year rather than the attacking defenses of the past? Like you say it's not the most exciting but it slows down the big plays.

1VaBlue1

October 27th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^

I can't speak for the MGoPurveyors, but I sure do.  I don't think it's lost on Harbaugh what college football has become - an all-out scoring affair.  Against OSU and Bama last year, he played it straight by the book - rely on a great defense to keep the score close.  It didn't work out, and those weren't the only times it didn't work out.

He's had a lot of trouble getting his offense to this kind of performance.  Now that he has it, he doesn't need to focus on the all-encompassing 'stop everything' defense.  He only needs that D to slow down an opponent, not stop it.  If the D speeds up the game by not allowing big plays, his offense gets more chances to score.  It might kill Don Brown's manliness, but I think the days of big plays scoring quickly against Michigan are largely gone.

If UMinn is a model, then UM has moved onto the center stage - where offense wins games and defense is just there.

xtramelanin

October 27th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^

on that first paye zoom around their RT, you can see the tackle starts a grab on paye's jersey and the front collar drops.  paye basically down blocks that guy's arm off the material and runs his merry way straight to the minny QB.  very well done.  

1VaBlue1

October 27th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^

I liked the previous play against the LG (#65).  Paye stunted outside then blasted by him on the right so fast the poor guy just stood there, looking straight ahead.  He didn't turn around until Paye was already out of the camera's view...

That game was so fun to watch!

Michigan4Life

October 27th, 2020 at 2:56 PM ^

To be fair, Minnesota moved their starting LG who had zero business playing at RT so I want to see him do it against better OTs but we won't get to find out until Wisconsin or OSU. If Faalele was able to play and Paye did it to him then yes, I would give more credence to his improved pass rush. So far, it's encouraging for Paye to make that next step as a pass rusher

AC1997

October 27th, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^

Nothing about LB or S?  Interesting.  My takes after this post and the comments:

- The DTs were somewhere between passable and good....while rotating four guys.  I don't care if they were playing against Minnesota State - that's better than last year.  Not expecting them to be consistently good, just hold their own and find 3-4 guys who can rotate.  That's a win.

- I'm glad the CBs didn't implode, I'm happy Green looked fine....but I'm still holding judgment for now.  The pressure by the DL and Dax being a big part of coverage papered over the CBs.  That's a good recipe all season....but the CBs still make me the most nervous of any non-Moody position group on the team.

- The DEs met their lofty expectations.  Competition caveats apply, but even the Chase Young / Bosa / Winovich types of players pad their stats against bad OL.  Paye is going to get multiple +3 UFR plays and piled up the counting stats.  I'll take it.  

ca_prophet

October 27th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^

My bold prediction is that we will get results from the CB's/DT's that 9/10 schools would celebrate with gratitude, and that it won't be nearly enough for the fanbase because the 10th school is our bitter rival.

That said, the only concerning thing from last game was that Gray did not look much improved.  Everything else does look better than we collectively feared.

 

bronxblue

October 27th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^

On rewatch I am really impressed with the depth of the line.  They don't have great tackles but they have some pluggers and some intriguing hybrids, and then the two ends really are all-conference players who can do a little bit of everything at a top level.  I don't think Paye and Hutchinson will pull in the big stats you need to get a ton of awards hype, but anyone who watches them can tell they'll be on NFL rosters for a long time if they stay healthy.  

Also, Gemon Green played really well and I will never again doubt Zordich as someone who can roll out good corners sorta regardless of expectations coming in.