got a legit center here [Bryan Fuller]

This Week's Obsession: Expectations Go Boom, Offense Comment Count

Ace October 26th, 2020 at 4:52 PM

We ended up dividing this week's, uh, This Week's Obsession into two parts because we are excited about the state of things. The prompt:

HOW HAVE YOUR PRESEASON EXPECTATIONS CHANGED SINCE THE MINNESOTA GAME

Seth: I may have underestimated Rutgers. Or something.

Ace: Joe Milton go brrrrrrrrrrrrr

Brian: Well, as the nation's leading Worried About Joe Milton guy, I mean... I'm less worried.

Ace: Michael Barrett go boom.

Brian: I kind of expected that from Barrett?

Ace: Roman Wilson go zoom.

Brian: Many persons went zoom.

Seth: Some of those who went zoom were recruited for their zoom.

Ace: Josh Gattis [rocket noises]

Seth: I do not think I expected to see Blake Corum go zoom so early.

Ace: The diversity and efficacy of the zooming was very encouraging.

Seth: Best zoom of 2020 by far.

Ace: I expected speed in space but for Michigan to eliminate the outside cornerbacks from the gameplan and gain nearly a first down per play was not necessarily expected.

Seth: The Harbaughification of the Gattis offense was glorious, and I'm not saying that as the conductor of the Ben Mason hype train. There were traps off power. Real 2015 stuff. Plus zoom.

Brian: So the things that stood out to me as unexpected:

  1. Joe Milton, game manager
  2. Gemon Green, person with large pockets containing receivers
  3. Ben Mason, key component of offense

We've been over the Milton stuff on the podcast and in the game column. I wasn't expecting a mistake rate that low.

Ace: His rushing ability also opened up the offense in a way we didn’t see last year. As you said, he’s got a scary power/speed combination.

Brian: I cannot believe he only ran for 250 yards as a senior in high school.

Alex: Harbaugh called him Cool As A Cucumber after the game and he really was. Only forced one throw that I can recall. Executed the easy plays. Looked good as a runner to move the chains. A steady stable Joe Milton who makes a few unbelievable throws a game... that’s the ticket, baby. That’s it right there.

[After THE JUMP: that's the ticket, baby.]

BiSB: The All dropped touchdown was reminiscent of the QB Oh Noes days of yore.

Ace: Speaking of which, if he brings in one of those potential touchdowns, we’re talking a lot more about him today. I’m still excited about the way they used him, which suggests they think he’s really dang good.

Brian: <gets RPS+3 medal out of dusty locker>

Alex: Have we talked about how much 21 personnel we saw? I wasn’t expecting that on offense. Part of that is no Nick Eubanks, surely.

Seth: I'm pumping the brakes a little bit on Milton because I didn't think he had hard reads. There was a long stretch of this game when Michigan wasn't in any kind of 3rd down, and I think I counted just two pressures. This was the ideal way to break in a quarterback, and I didn't expect it to go as smoothly as it did. But if expectations have adjusted for Joe they're the same for some of the other young QBs who debuted in the Big Ten this week: from "I have no idea" to "Oh, there's some there here; let's keep the apron strings tied." I kind of suspected the running ability from the limited snaps he's faced. 

Alex: That they could afford to keep the proverbial training wheels on bodes well for most of the rest of the season.

Ace: There’s a part of me that feels that. And also a larger part of me going WOOOOOOOOOO BROTHER THAT WAS START ONE WE HAVEN’T SEEN THE HALF OF IT YET.

Brian: We hadn't really seen him follow the design of a play and maximize his blocking like he did a few different times. The Wisconsin run was against the grain improv. Compare it to those two Patterson shoulda-coulda TDs against OSU where he didn't cut up inside his blocking.

Ace: They ran one actual zone read, I think? And he kept it for a shockingly easy first down.

Seth: I think there was one spring game run on a QB Pin & Pull RPO that I analyzed to the pixel.

Ace: They bluffed one orbit motion. There’s a lot of stuff still in the bag.

Brian: There was one keep and I suspect there were a few more on which he handed off, possibly incorrectly.

Alex: Running an empty backfield QB pin and pull inside the five yard line is pretty damn awesome. I know that was in the game column but yeah.

Ace: That was so easy.

Brian: Being able to wildcat with your actual quarterback is awesome. 

Ace: Speaking of that: Andrew Vastardis looked great. Got out in space, ID’d the right guys, took them for rides. He was a big part of those pin-and-pulls.

Alex: I will never take a smart, competent offensive line for granted again in my life, man. 

Ace: Long live Warinner.

Brian: Yeah there was one blitz that killed a Charbonnet run early and other than that I don't think anyone got through clean.

Ace: That one felt like an RPS loss as much as a bust, too. 

Brian: That is what it's likely to grade out as, yes.

Ace: So the two guys we were most concerned about making consistent game-changing mistakes were pretty much error-free on first (and second, GIF-focused) watch. At least when it came to making drive-killing mistakes.

Seth: Chuck Filiaga as their best pulling guard was another pleasant surprise. When a man that large can appear in places the small people roam you're gonna have a good time.

Alex: I feel like most people were hopping on the Gattis bandwagon by the end of last season so this might not qualify as a “surprise” but that looked like a fantastic game plan to me.

Seth: The thing I was really hopping up and down about was the return of the screens.

Ace: Bubbles!

Lord, I’m turning into a child.

Alex: Free yards? For a Michigan offense? Yes sir.

Ace: [clapping like a seal]

Brian: That Harbaugh quote about how they had guys who can be first or second reads because they can delete a linebacker by themselves was paid off on the first snap. When you can design a play that assumes you don't have to block a linebacker then you've got guys to the safety.

Ace: An offense that takes free yards and attacks matchups instead of running the same stuff regardless of opponent. I’m feeling pretty good, guys.

Seth: It was also a way for Ronnie Bell to affect the game when he had Minnesota's best defender glued to him. He broke a guy on the Henning screen.

BiSB: Does that work against the best linebackers in the Big Ten though?

Ace: I mean not everything is gonna work as well as that Charbonnet touchdown, no. We should be clear that Minnesota’s defense is probably not good.

BiSB: Especially their linebackers.

Ace: But they’re still Big Ten, and not Rutgers Big Ten, and they got lit aflame.

BiSB: Not quite Illinois level linebacking play, but bad.

Brian: Maybe maybe not. Once you get guys jumping to that flare action you can get that RPS+3 stuff going on something else. Constant iteration, like those arc TE screens. 

Ace: The constant messing with the second level felt more consistent and cohesive.

Seth: I know we're jumping to #3 but the threat of bringing Ben Mason across the formation was real and Michigan did everything but actually kickout block with it.

Alex: Yeah hard to say how good or bad the Gopher defense is based on a sample size of one game, even though that one game was real bad for them.

Ace: The Mason stuff got multiple touchdowns.

BiSB: THAT seems pretty sustainable.

Ace: My body is ready.

Seth: One piece of the Charbonnet touchdown (there are always many when you have literally nobody in your way for 70 yards) was the Mike went full bore to the frontside because he expected Mason would be ejecting the edge over there.

Ace: He’s going to motion to the edge a lot, it’s going to seem like a block a lot, the prospect of that block is going to instill the fear of god, and then he’s going to slip into the flat and maybe hurdle a defensive back.

Alex: He really looks like a sixth OL out there some times and! he’s Not Just A Blocker.

Brian: Also his presence means that Gattis learns stuff.

Ace: Good point.

Brian: How many OCs never learn anything? 

BiSB: Pretty sure he just stole that from Mike Locksley.

/ducks

Ace: That was a better Locksley joke than the one I was typing.

Seth: Ha ha Gattis used a sixth OL too this game. One year around Harbaugh and we turned the #SpeedinSpace guy into a Jerry Hanlon aficionado. 

BiSB: Watching that game, you could just FEEL the 73 different ways they can take this. It wasn't just the Malibu Stacy With A New Hat version of 2019's offense.

Alex: It also wasn’t an eclectic blend of plays that made no sense relative to one another

Ace: I’m anticipating entire packages of plays that have only been hinted at so far.

Alex: Am I still harboring an enmity towards Al Borges? Maybe.

Ace: That was the first game after a short offseason with a first-time starter!

BiSB: They probably won't need to bust them out for Michigan State.

(They should probably bust them out for Michigan State tho.)

Brian: They should definitely run the Cornelius Johnson thing again. 

Ace: MARK DANTONIO MEET ME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OCTAGON 

sorry

Run that stuff, though.

Seth: I just remember the quotes from coaches in 2015-'16, when they said Harbaugh's offense is so hard to prepare for because they will make gaps appear anywhere. That wasn't at all the case last year. They had many interesting ways of attacking just inside edge defenders. This felt much more like spread-Harbaugh fusion cuisine and I'm loving it.

Ace: Murder spread.

Brian: The 2019 offense wasn't one thing, it was a scramble trying to put together something that worked once Patterson came under way under expectations/got hurt.

BiSB: Maybe it was just me, but the RPS wins seemed easier, like they had a higher likelihood of success. In terms of efficiency, I'd rather have "three yard toss to Erick All coming across the formation that gains 17 yards" than a deep shot.

Ace: Those throws over the intermediate middle of the field to Roman Wilson and such have a lot of upside, as well. It’s easier to gain yards after the catch where you’re getting the ball there than down the sideline. We saw… no(?)… armpunts down the sideline.

Brian: I think that is correct that there were no fly routes targeted. 

BiSB: I did see my entire Twitter timeline lose their collective crap over the incomplete pass to Jackson late in the half, though. Humans don't usually throw a football like that.

Ace: One of the more impressive incompletions I can remember.

Brian: That's a gimmicky top five just waiting

Ace: Meanwhile, this is a dart that avoids the linebacker, keeps the second safety out of play, and remains catchable.

That’s spent the whole summer in the film room and has first-round arm talent stuff.

Brian: I don't know how many times Patterson threw in between levels in a zone in the middle of the field but It wasn't many.

Coming tomorrow: the defense.

Comments

Bo Schemheckler

October 26th, 2020 at 5:19 PM ^

I'm desperately hoping that Joe Milton: game manager gets us successfully through the season only to all of a sudden be revealed as Joe Milton: Destroyer of worlds and eater of souls during the OSU game and resulting playoffs

philthy66

October 26th, 2020 at 5:22 PM ^

Offense looked great. I would be curious to see if there was a tendency develop with Mason. I haven’t gone back and looked at the tape, but it appeared that following Mason would take the defense directly where the play is going. Of course, the defense may have been keying on the Oline and that’s where that game plan arises. But, I am kind of curious to hear someone else’s opinion if they saw that tendency develop too. 

Carpetbagger

October 26th, 2020 at 8:21 PM ^

Actually, my eyes started following him too. Just enough to notice that the play went away from him just enough that it would be a bad idea to key on Mason (imho).

In particular, there was a sprint draw like thing where it was a bit of a quick count, and Mason went left off tackle and the back went right off tackle for a good chunk. 

I think one of the Bell RPOs the LBs charged Mason too before it got thrown right where they were standing before they took off.

philthy66

October 26th, 2020 at 9:39 PM ^

Yes, starting to see it’s not as much of a tendency as I thought. It’s still like 80% of the time wherever Mason goes will take you to the ball, but before I made the comment, I was thinking it was 100%. The long run by Haskins was actually designed to go away from Mason, got stuck, then ended up breaking on Mason’s back side block anyways for 60 yards. I know one of the other plays you are referencing. Thanks for your thoughts. 

FieldingBLUE

October 26th, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^

I can't stop watching that final GIF.

Milton not only effortlessly places that ball (without OVERthrowing it), he steps INTO the pocket. No back foot slinging.

Someday... I will love it when he can glance to the out route first to pull that safety toward the sideline, and hit the receiver in stride for a TD. 

For now though, it's beautiful.

mgobaran

October 27th, 2020 at 8:31 AM ^

He definitely did that on multiple plays, but you can't fault him for doing so on this one. He might be reading both WRs at once, but the defensive alignment is telling him the outside receiver (Roman Wilson?) is going to be wide open on his slant in front of a safety playing 15 yards off the LOS on the snap. You don't need to check a 2nd read when your 1st is wide open...

1VaBlue1

October 27th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^

Yes, Milton often stared down his target and watched him run the route - especially on the deeper throws.  But, you know, for his first time starting - let alone his first extended playing time - I'll give him that flaw.  I do believe we'll see less of that as the season wears on, and even less next year.  

AC1997

October 26th, 2020 at 6:14 PM ^

A couple of deep thoughts as I consume as much content as possible....

 

1 - If I'm not mistaken, Milton is the first true Harbaugh developed QB at Michigan.  Most of our past QBs were transfers (Rudock, O'Korn, Patterson), holdovers (Speight), or left before we saw what they could become (Peters, McCaffrey).  Milton is a true Harbaugh farm-system developed QB.  Maybe there's something to that?

2 - The comments on the receiving attack stood out to me.  Let's recap - no deep fly routes, avoid their best players at CB, become good at screens and slants, etc.  Could it be that when we lose all of our tall jumpy guys (DPJ, Nico, Black) that the staff was forced to adapt and suddenly stopped forcing long passes and jump balls and instead schemed open fast guys?  

AC1997

October 26th, 2020 at 8:33 PM ^

Huh?  Devin Gardner was a Brady Hoke QB.  He had the worst timing in that he missed being in RochRods spread offense that would have been ideal for his skills and missed being coached by Harbaugh behind a good OL.  

Or are you saying that Gardner is the reason Milton is off to a good start?  Maybe that's true....I will take anything we can get.  

My Name is LEGIONS

October 26th, 2020 at 7:11 PM ^

They looked so darn good (as I predicted) they maybe we burn UFR for ever more.   Remember what Bo said about becoming soft from hearing great things about you...

Blue@LSU

October 26th, 2020 at 7:59 PM ^

Milton has such a cool confidence on the field. I wonder how much that also carries to the rest of the team. They looked really loose, even the freshmen.

His patience on those designed runs was really impressive. In that first clip he just lets the play develop, waits for the hole to open up, and then accelerates through it. 

Dude has the tools and the mentality to be a great QB!

Carpetbagger

October 26th, 2020 at 8:31 PM ^

Agreed on Milton's confidence. I'm with Seth, I didn't see the second coming of Joe Montana out there. What I saw was a metric fu** ton of potential with impressive composure.

Half of leadership is the right attitude, he's got that. The team will take on that personality, and he doesn't have to be Montana to make the team better.

I'll go out on a limb and speculate this is why DCaff isn't here. This is Milton's team.

M-Dog

October 26th, 2020 at 8:09 PM ^

Mitlon's running with his head up, eyes downfield is what opens up his runs.  He'll throw it on the run over your head if you sell out and charge right at him.  And you know this.  

Putting defenders in conflict.  Yeah, baby.

 

PrettyFlyWhiteGuy

October 26th, 2020 at 8:47 PM ^

I disagree with Seth’s paragraph talking about pumping the brakes on Milton because he had easy reads. I’m kind of hoping that this is the offense. One thing about UofM’s offense the last couple of years is that even when it was going good it looked like they were working really fucking hard. Saturday night looked easy. They scored 42 points and didn’t do anything spectacular. This is what you see other offenses do around the country and I always wondered why it was so hard for UofM. So to me, I hope all of Joe’s games are just like that because it is by design. 

champswest

October 26th, 2020 at 9:48 PM ^

I used to say that we don’t really know how good (or bad) any team is until October. Since we didn’t get started until late October, I will say that we won’t know until a team plays at least 3 games. Minnesota was missing some guys and maybe they won’t be very good even when they get them back. Maybe Rutgers has made some decent strides. Too soon to know yet. But, I really like what I see from UM so far.

We looked hungry and ready to play. Physical and fast. That will take you a long way.

uminks

October 27th, 2020 at 1:41 AM ^

It has changed my outlook, since I thought we would lose a close game to MN, one of the home games against WI or PSU and OSU. Now I think there is a chance we will have tough wins against WI, PSU and may IU but I think OSU will beat us again but hopefully not destroy us.

SoccerDancer

October 27th, 2020 at 2:37 AM ^

Word coming out of Wiscy is that both Mertz and the number 3 QB Wolf have both tested positive. If so, they're out till after our game, and Wiscy is playing the next 3 weeks with redshirt junior Danny Vanden Boom. Since he's apparently been around a couple years he might at least know the system, but you gotta figure facing anyone in the B1G with your 4th string guy is doing things the hard way.