Michigan Gets Six Seed

already one of the best teams in program history [Scott]

It felt a little strange seeing Michigan get a six-seed in last night's selection show. On one hand, there was a sense of disappointment after the COVID pause and a late-season swoon knocked the team off their track to a top-four seed. On the other, well...

Highest seed in program history...let's go dancing!

6⃣

Let the madness begin!#goblue #ncaaw pic.twitter.com/KnAZE6VwU0

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) March 15, 2021

...this is literally the best seed in program history. This is a good reminder that the men's and women's programs have been in two very different places historically even though the more recent impression is that both have slowly pulled their way out of extended down periods. This is the first time the women's team has made three consecutive tourney appearances.

Kim Barnes Arico couldn't have played for a previous Michigan Final Four team because there is no previous Michigan Final Four team. The women's program made their first of what's now nine NCAA Tournament appearances in 1990. They're 5-3 in opening-round games and 0-5 in the second round. While this may not be quite the breakthrough year that the team's charge out of the gates portended, the program is making steady forward progress.

This team faced plenty of challenges, from COVID issues that went well beyond the athletic department's layoff to an extended absence from Leigha Brown to expected breakout sophomore Izabel Varejao being stuck in Brazil until the last couple weeks and looking headed for a redshirt year. They still made history. The stumbles down the stretch shouldn't diminish that one bit.

[Hit THE JUMP for M's tournament path ft. one of the weirdest teams in the bracket, plus reviews of the BTT and Big Ten awards.]

The Tourney Path

Michigan's stout defense will be put to the test [Scott]

Here is Michigan's half of the River Walk region (the tourney is taking place in San Antonio). The full bracket is here.

Michigan takes on Florida Gulf Coast on Sunday at 3 pm ET (ESPN2). FGCU could be a tricky first-round matchup, though they're a tough opponent to figure out given this weird season.

The Eagles could be underseeded. They boast a gaudy 24-2 record, are on a 23-game winning streak, and went undefeated in the Atlantic Sun conference. Her Hoop Stats ranks them 17th nationally with the #21 adjusted offense and #18 adjusted defense. They have an extreme style, shooting 49% of their field goals from beyond the arc (1st nationally) and making them at a solid 34% clip; when they take two-pointers they make 60% of them, the #1 mark in the country. While their conference isn't good (at all), they have a 13-point win at UCF (#38 NET) for a Q1 notch in the belt. Their five-out offense is going to present a challenge, as this video with footage from last year's FGCU squad shows:

FGCU was rarely tested, however. They lost their other two Q1 games in an early-season tournament hosted on their home court; #20 Missouri State whomped them 74-49 and #17 Arkansas beat them 86-80 the following day. They didn't play a single Q2 opponent. Everyone else they beat fell into the bottom two quadrants, including 16 Q4 teams. Their top two players are 6'1 Kierstan Bell (a good-sized guard; also the same height as Amy Dilk) and 5'3 Tishara Morehouse, who's significantly smaller than anyone M will put on the court. Cecil is also the tallest player on the roster. The only player listed on the roster as a "guard/forward" instead of just "guard" isn't in the rotation.

This is going to be a profoundly strange matchup. Michigan is a huge team and way more interior-oriented than most squads. FGCU is one of the smallest teams in the country and the most perimeter-focused. Maybe FGCU lights the Wolverines on fire from beyond the arc. Maybe Hillmon leads an overwhelming assault on the paint. Maybe both happen and this goes back and forth. I have no idea what to expect beyond production from Hillmon, because that never fails.

Should the Wolverines advance, they'll almost certainly face a Tennessee team that isn't at peak Pat Summit era levels but is still plenty good. The Vols are 16-7 and all of their losses came against ranked foes, including five against top-ten teams. They beat Indiana 66-58 in Bloomington; Michigan lost 70-65 in the same arena. They have eight Q1 wins, including a home victory over one-seed South Carolina.

Tennessee has plenty of size to match up with M's front line. They also have solid top-line talent. 6'1 G/F Rae Burrell hits 41% of her threes on over four attempts per game and can attack off the bounce. 6'2 G/F Rennia Davis hasn't had her outside shot going but still leads the team in scoring because of her effectiveness finishing inside the arc; she's also the team's top rebounder. 6'5 center Tamari Key boasts an intimidating 11% block rate. They're also one of the country's best rebounding teams, which could offset one of M's biggest strengths.

Getting past UT would be a huge accomplishment for the program. Anything beyond that—which would likely require getting through Baylor, and if that somehow came off, then UConn—would require something unforeseen but the team would be playing with house money.

A Short Recap of a Short BTT Appearance

Northwestern stifled M's secondary scorers [Scott/file]

Michigan made a swift exit from the Big Ten Tournament as the four-seed, going out in their opening game against five-seed Northwestern, a team they'd beaten twice in the regular season. Turnabout is fair play; if you remember, the Wolverines pulled that feat on these very Wildcats in last year's BTT after getting swept in the season series.

Northwestern's swarming zone defense intensified the same issues Michigan has dealt with all season, especially in the latter half. Naz Hillmon went 10/19 from the field and 6/8 at the line for 26 points. The entire rest of the dang team combined to shoot 9/48 on field goals (including 1/15 on three-pointers) and 4/4 on free throws to account for 23 points.

The Wildcats won 65-49 on the strength of that team defensive effort and an outstanding game by Veronica Burton, who had 25 points on 17 shooting possessions, 13 rebounds, six assists, three steals, and a block.

This hasn't been the same team since the COVID layoff, and considering there were early-season absences by key players because of COVID protocol, there may be more to that than issues with the lack of midseason practice/game time. Michigan hasn't cracked a point per possession in any game since the layoff and they've fallen short of even 0.85 PPP in all but one of those eight contests. Their three-point shooting has cratered; they're 29/131 (22%) since restarting the season a little over a month ago, allowing opponents to focus an extreme amount of attention on Hillmon.

The Wolverines need a reemergence of secondary scoring if they're going to make any noise in the NCAA Tournament. The onus on that largely falls on Leigha Brown, who hasn't been nearly as sharp since she had to sit games because of COVID protocol even before the lockdown went into effect. She's 0/13 from beyond the arc over the last four games. It's hard to see this team advancing past the first weekend—and it's easy to see them getting upset in the first round—if Brown can't regain her early-season form.

Hillmon Wins Big Ten POTY, Other Awards

roar if you're the best player in the conference oh okay well done [Scott]

Naz Hillmon is cleaning up in the postseason awards department. She was named one of three unanimous first-team all-conference selections by the coaches and one of four by the media. (It's here I stop and note that the Big Ten all-conference teams have ten players instead of five on the women's side, for some reason.) She became the first Wolverine to win Big Ten Player of the Year and was the choice for both the coaches and media.

She's one of 11 semifinalists for the Naismith Player of the Year Award and a finalist for the Katrina McClain Award, which is given to the nation's top power forward. The Wooden Award hasn't released a list of finalists yet but there's a good chance she'll be on that, too. Hillmon isn't going to win national player of the year—the competition is stacked and most of the other players are on more successful teams—but All-American honors should come and they'll be well-deserved.

Leigha Brown made second-team All-B1G and Akienreh Johnson was named all-defense.