wbb weekly

This is going to be a quick catchup given the tightly packed schedule of this extended tourney weekend. I'll have a full WBB Weekly post later in the week.

Michigan Beats FGCU in First Round

Michigan's tournament week got off to a rough start. First they drew Florida Gulf Coast, considered a difficult 11-seed because of their five-guard, three-heavy offensive attack. Then starting point guard Amy Dilk didn't make the trip to San Antonio due to vague "medical issues." The Wolverines offense had already sputtered down the stretch and now they had to keep up with a high-octane team without their lead ballhandler. FGCU was one of the most popular first-round upset picks.

The Eagles opened the game with a steal and a three-pointer to extend the auspicious start beyond tipoff. Hailey Brown answered with her own three-pointer assisted by fill-in starter Danielle Rauch, however, and the Wolverines controlled the game from there other than a second quarter blip with Naz Hillmon in foul trouble. A second-half explosion for Leigha Brown put a close game out of reach.

Leigha Brown led all scorers with a season-high 28 points, 24 of which came after halftime. She scored with obscene efficiency, shooting 12/16 from the field and 4/6 from the line. All her makes came from two-point range as she used her size advantage to great effect. It's hard to overstate the importance of Brown's breakthrough; she hadn't shot above 50% from the field in over a month, then did so in a game when Hillmon had trouble finishing and scored a mere 14 points to go with her 13 boards.

While she finished with only two assists, Brown also functioned as the team's lead ballhandler for much of the game in Dilk's stead. Akienreh Johnson also had the ball in her hands quite a bit; she scored 15 points on 14 shooting possessions, pulled down ten rebounds, and dished out a team-high six assists, albeit with five turnovers. Johnson, as usual, also played some of the best defense on the team.

The biggest surprise was the disparity in three-point shooting. Michigan, not a great shooting team, sank 8/20 from beyond the arc. FGCU, which made more threes than any other team in the country this season, hit 9/29 from downtown. Johnson, Rauch, Hailey Brown, and Maddie Nolan all sank two apiece.

Getting into the second round can't be taken for granted given this program's history. Michigan did it without a starter while their best player had a relative off-game. That didn't seem likely after how this team played for the last month or so, and it gives hope for the chance of a second-round upset against three-seed Tennessee.

[After THE JUMP: a quick Tennessee preview]

Michigan Gets Six Seed

already one of the best teams in program history [Scott]

It felt a little strange seeing Michigan get a six-seed in last night's selection show. On one hand, there was a sense of disappointment after the COVID pause and a late-season swoon knocked the team off their track to a top-four seed. On the other, well...

Highest seed in program history...let's go dancing!

6⃣

Let the madness begin!#goblue #ncaaw pic.twitter.com/KnAZE6VwU0

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) March 15, 2021

...this is literally the best seed in program history. This is a good reminder that the men's and women's programs have been in two very different places historically even though the more recent impression is that both have slowly pulled their way out of extended down periods. This is the first time the women's team has made three consecutive tourney appearances.

Kim Barnes Arico couldn't have played for a previous Michigan Final Four team because there is no previous Michigan Final Four team. The women's program made their first of what's now nine NCAA Tournament appearances in 1990. They're 5-3 in opening-round games and 0-5 in the second round. While this may not be quite the breakthrough year that the team's charge out of the gates portended, the program is making steady forward progress.

This team faced plenty of challenges, from COVID issues that went well beyond the athletic department's layoff to an extended absence from Leigha Brown to expected breakout sophomore Izabel Varejao being stuck in Brazil until the last couple weeks and looking headed for a redshirt year. They still made history. The stumbles down the stretch shouldn't diminish that one bit.

[Hit THE JUMP for M's tournament path ft. one of the weirdest teams in the bracket, plus reviews of the BTT and Big Ten awards.]

Notable results since the last post (home team listed second):

• OSU 67, PSU 69
• Rutgers 63, MSU 53
• Maryland 88, Purdue 59
• Michigan 67, Iowa 89
• Indiana 87, OSU 75
• Maryland 62, Northwestern 50
• PSU 56, Rutgers 74
• Iowa 80, Indiana 89
• Maryland 88, Michigan 63
• OSU 63, Rutgers 71
• PSU 61, Maryland 88
• Purdue 59, Indiana 74
• Northwestern 58, Michigan 63
• Nebraska 75, Iowa 83

After a rough couple games against Iowa and Northwestern, Michigan bounced back with a Senior Day victory over Northwestern to secure a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines were also supposed to visit Minnesota last weekend but that game was canceled due to a COVID issue in the Gophers program.

Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers all closed strong down the stretch to earn the top three seeds in the BTT. Ohio State, on the other hand, faded hard, perhaps because their postseason ban deprived them of motivation once the regular season title was out of reach.

The Final Regular Season Standings

Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added records for games against Q1 teams in the NET rankings and HHS's adjusted team rankings.

*The coaches poll isn't updated until tomorrow, so those rankings are a week behind. Expect Rutgers to move up and Northwestern to drop. Michigan will probably slide at least a spot, as well.

Michigan's Big Ten efficiency margin essentially got cut in half over the last couple weeks. Even though they only won the conference by one game, the Terps pulled away as the class of the conference; their only loss in the B1G came by two on the road at Ohio State in late January, when the Buckeyes were playing like a top-15 team.

Indiana could be close, though. Other than a four-point road loss at Maryland, they have the same blemish—a loss in Columbus. The Hoosiers haven't been quite as dominant but they've moved into the top ten nationally.

[Hit THE JUMP for the BTT bracket, a look back at M's last few games, and updated tiers.]