Results since the last post (home team listed second):

• OSU 70, Wisconsin 75
• PSU 65, Indiana 90
• Illinois 73, Minnesota 83
• Michigan 62, Purdue 49
• Rutgers 70, Northwestern 54
• Iowa 88, Nebraska 81
• MSU 78, PSU 65
• Maryland 95, Nebraska 73
• Indiana 58, Illinois 50
• Wisconsin 63, Minnesota 68
• Rutgers 75, Purdue 57
• MSU 82, Michigan 86

Conference contender Ohio State saw my "auto-win" designation for Wisconsin in last week's post and decided to lose to them that very evening. I'd be upset for looking foolish but if that's how it happens I'm cool with it.

The Standings

Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added records for games against Q1 teams in the NET rankings and HHS's adjusted team rankings.

	Record				Rankings					Efficiency (B1G Only)
Team	Ovr.	B1G	Q1		AP	Coach	HHS	NET		OE	DE	EM
MD	14-2	10-1	4-2		9th	10th	6th	7th		119.1	96.4	+22.7
U-M	12-1	7-1	2-1		11th	11th	19th	14th		106.0	84.7	+21.3
IND	13-4	11-2	2-4		14th	12th	11th	9th		104.5	82.3	+22.2
OSU	12-3	8-3	5-1		15th	t-13th	20th	18th		98.8	92.4	+6.4
NW	11-4	9-4	4-3		24th	22nd	29th	26th		98.4	89.1	+9.2
RUT	8-3	4-3	1-2		26th	31st	7th	12th		107.5	100.2	+7.3
IOWA	11-6	7-6	2-6			33rd	32nd	30th		112.7	104.7	+8.0
MSU	11-6	6-6	1-5			t-34th	36th	35th		100.2	98.1	+2.1
NEB	9-9	7-8	4-5				100th	82nd		94.1	100.7	-6.5
MIN	7-9	6-8	0-6				194th	137th		95.6	106.1	-10.4
PSU	8-9	5-8	0-6				127th	93rd		95.3	101.8	-6.5
PUR	6-11	3-10	0-6				146th	129th		88.5	101.5	-13.0
WIS	5-14	2-14	1-8				189th	153rd		88.2	108.7	-20.5
ILL	3-13	1-12	0-7				248th	171st		80.1	99.9	-19.8

For the moment, the Maryland/Michigan/Indiana trio are a cut above the rest of the league in efficiency margin with the three packed within 1.5 points per 100 possessions of each other. The Terps are a more offensive-oriented team while M and IU have remarkably similar offense/defense splits.

Rutgers is a team to keep an eye on. They've played even fewer games than Michigan because of COVID postponements, which have created a big gap between the human polls and computer-generated rankings. It's going to be difficult to get a read on the Scarlet Knights until the Big Ten Tournament, if ever; the last four games currently on their schedule are Illinois, at MSU, at PSU, and finally a big test in the finale at home versus OSU. They did play Maryland close back in December but unless games are made up they won't face M or IU in the regular season.

Bracket Watch: Postponements Are A Factor

KBA was not pleased with the early NCAA bracket reveal [Scott]

The looming question heading into Monday's official top-16 mock bracket reveal was how the selection committee would take postponements into account. Would teams be punished for not playing as many games others? In large part by leaving Michigan off the list, the committee answered with a resounding 'yes':

But one of the unknowns heading into this reveal was how the committee would look at teams that haven't played as much. We now have our answer: Playing fewer games was a significant negative to the résumé.

"We looked at Michigan but ultimately felt that their body of work didn't warrant a top-16," King said. "It is difficult to gauge the full capabilities of a team when they haven't played as much."

The Big Ten fared poorly in general. While Maryland got placed as the seventh overall seed, in line with their NET ranking, Indiana ended up 15th despite being ninth in NET. Both issues got a rise out of Kim Barnes Arico:

“The (Southeastern Conference) was really rewarded last night. I’m upset for our league, as I am for our team. It totally feels uphill,” Barnes Arico said about the Big Ten conference and the NCAA selections. “I’ve kind of been outspoken all year long about our conference, and nationally I thought it took a turn, until last night.” ...

“For us to be penalized for (postponing) doesn’t seem fair,” Barnes Arico said.

She added that the snub was a "slap in the face," in case she hadn't been clear enough. Her frustration is warranted, since one knock-on result of the committee evaluating teams this way is programs like Michigan and Rutgers will feel pressure to make up a large number of games in a short period of time. It's a tough choice between adding games to potentially move up one or two seed lines or standing pat and hoping the final resume holds up better while keeping the players more rested.

It doesn't seem like the Wolverines are in a hurry to cram a bunch of games into the last couple weeks of February. Given they play Indiana and Ohio State this week and travel to Iowa next week, that's the right call. They have a chance at a couple statement wins before the Big Ten Tournament, and a run there could propel them to the same seed line a couple extra regular season games—it's not like there's a guarantee the committee will give M a great seed anyway given how they're looking at the Big Ten.

For now, ESPN has dropped the Wolverines from their previous perch on the three-seed line down to a five-seed to match the committee's outlook.

[Hit THE JUMP for scheduling frustrations, recapping the Purdue and MSU wins, and more.]

What The Hell, Powers That Be

I was already a little annoyed that the women's and men's teams would be playing on the same day twice this week. At least tomorrow's huge tilt against Indiana tips off three hours before the men face Rutgers. Sunday is a different, inexplicable story:

Left: men, right: women. Explanations are needed @ B1G pic.twitter.com/LwKDv55cSL

— Jacob Shames (@Jacob_Shames) February 15, 2021

For those who don't want to click through: the men's game against Ohio State is at 1 pm and the women's game against, yes, Ohio State is at 2 pm.

This overlap is inexcusable. I understand that sometimes, for example, a hockey and basketball game are bound to overlap. The same two schools facing each other in the same dang sport, though? I don't have much of a choice but to watch maybe Michigan's biggest game of the season on a personal tape delay and the effort to avoid spoilers would force me to abandon interaction with anything related to Michigan sports internet during a huge men's basketball game.

Scheduling shouldn't be this difficult and it's insulting that the people in charge of setting these games aren't trying harder.

Purdue In Review: The Sloppy COVID Return Game

Leigha Brown pushed the pace in her return to the court [Scott]

The Wolverines returned from the athletic department shutdown with a 62-49 win at Purdue that very much looked like the first game after a long layoff. While Naz Hillmon dominated on the interior with 21 points, she went 9/12 from the field while the rest of the squad shot 11/42, including a 2/15 mark from beyond the arc. Michigan also coughed up 20 turnovers.

Thankfully, Purdue played a game to match, turning it over 22 times themselves and going 7/16 at the free throw line. This was an ugly, ugly game to watch.

Barnes Arico made an unexpected change in the starting lineup with Leigha Brown's return, keeping Maddie Nolan with the starters and moving longtime starting point guard Amy Dilk to the bench. Brown's ability to pass allowed KBA to put a more defensive-minded player out there. Nolan played her game, scoring five points on four shots, pulling down a rebound on each end, dishing out three assists against one turnover, and coming up with four steals in 32 minutes. Dilk only had two points, three assists, and three turnovers in 20 minutes.

Despite the offensive ineffectiveness, this game never felt in doubt. The Boilermakers didn't get a bucket for the first six minutes. When they tried to make a push, KBA broke out a mean defensive changeup, as detailed by Matty Blue:

KBA also threw out a non-lineup wrinkle, and it was a welcome one.  It’s hard to imagine now, but as a freshman Naz Hillmon was the first player off the bench (it’s true!), and her appearance was always accompanied by a truly scary full-court 1-1-2-1 press with Naz going nuts at the knife edge.  Sadly, KBA went away from it once Naz was a starter, presumably to save her legs and let her get set up in the defensive low post.  But she pulled it out tonight for maybe half a dozen possessions and got three turnovers out of it.  It’s a great change of pace – one wonders if they’d do it more often if Izabel Varejao was still around (or if Cameron Williams was a little more ready for extended minutes) to play safety.

They may be able to do this a bit more now that Emily Kiser and Leigha Brown are both available for the first time all year.

Speaking of Brown, I thought she did an impressive job of playing through some obvious rust. She had to grind out her 20 points, going 11/14 from the line to offset a 4/13 mark from the field. Her aggressive takes and timely passes that attacked vulnerable matchups played a huge role in Purdue's top two centers both fouling out in the first minute of the fourth quarter, which all but ended any hope of a comeback.

I can't finish this section without mentioning this was one of the most dominant rebounding performances you'll ever see. The Wolverines pulled down 15 of their 33 missed field goals, including six offensive boards from Hillmon and five from Akienreh Johnson. Purdue had one (1) team offensive rebound—aka a ball Michigan knocked out of bounds—on 21 missed field goals, and they had extra chances because of their free throw woes. I don't think I've ever seen that.

MSU In Review: Similar, But Replace Turnoverfest With Refshow

oh just another 30-point game [Scott]

Dilk returned to the starting lineup yesterday for the in-state rivalry. With Hillmon running rampant, scoring 20 on 8/9 shooting in the first half, it looked like the Wolverines would cruise off their 11-point halftime advantage.

Then the refs decided to call the game tighter than an anaconda hug. After whistling 16 combined first-half fouls, they called 23 in a miserable second half. Hillmon, Leigha Brown, and Hailey Brown all played—or sat—with four fouls for much of the second half. While the former two were still productive, they were on the bench a combined 14 minutes even as MSU, led by a red-hot Nia Clouden, cut what had been a 15-point second-half lead down to as few as three.

Naturally, it was the two top scorers who put the game away when they had the chance. After MSU's Alisa Smith hit two free throws to make it a three-point game with five minutes to go, Hillmon and Leigha Brown scored 12 of M's final 14 points, and Brown assisted both of Hillmon's buckets in that stretch.

When the team had to hold on for dear life, it was the grad student, Akienreh Johnson, who led the way:

“(Going into the fourth quarter) we’re like, ‘Holy cow, who’s going to hold this together?’ ” Barnes Arico said. “(Johnson) is that person. She is the glue to our team. She’s the most experienced person on our team. She’s a warrior.”

Johnson’s driving layup to open the fourth quarter stopped the Spartan’s 7-0 run, helping get the Michigan offense back on track. Her defense, punctuated by drawing an offensive charge, maintained the Wolverine’s lead. 

Johnson is the oft-overlooked player of great importance to this team. She's third on the team in scoring, second in rebounding, third in assists, and fourth in steals while drawing the toughest defensive assignment on the perimeter every game. She made one of the plays of the game down the stretch, rotating for a massive weakside block on MSU defensive specialist Mardrekia Cook, who fouled out going for the subsequent loose ball.

We're still waiting to see this team at full strength and not in a post-layoff funk. The refshow made it more difficult to gauge progress in this game. They only committed 12 turnovers, a massive improvement from the previous game; they also only made 5/21 three-pointers, and both Dilk and Hailey Brown aren't in top form. Hopefully that turns around soon because this week provides two huge tests.

Updated Tiers

Last week's:

Tier I (contenders): Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Northwestern
Tier II (solid middle): Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, Penn State
Tier III (pretty bad): Minnesota, Purdue
Tier IV (auto-win): Illinois, Wisconsin

This week's:

Tier I (cream of the crop): Maryland, Michigan, Indiana
Tier II (fringe contenders): Ohio State, Northwestern, Iowa, Rutgers
Tier II (soft middle): Michigan State, Nebraska, Penn State
Tier III (pretty bad): Minnesota, Purdue
Tier IV (auto-win): Illinois, Wisconsin

This Week's Schedule

All times Eastern. Subject to change. All games on BTN+ unless otherwise noted.

Today: Illinois at Maryland (1, BTN), Nebraska at Northwestern (7), Minnesota at Rutgers (7)
Thursday: PSU at Iowa (4), Purdue at OSU (4), Michigan at Indiana (6, BTN)
Saturday: Illinois at Rutgers (noon), Minnesota at Maryland (noon), Wisconsin at Northwestern (3)
Sunday: OSU at Michigan (2, ESPN2), PSU at Nebraska (3), Iowa at Indiana (TBD), Purdue at MSU (TBD)