2020-21 purdue wbb

Results since the last post (home team listed second):

• OSU 70, Wisconsin 75
• PSU 65, Indiana 90
• Illinois 73, Minnesota 83
• Michigan 62, Purdue 49
• Rutgers 70, Northwestern 54
• Iowa 88, Nebraska 81
• MSU 78, PSU 65
• Maryland 95, Nebraska 73
• Indiana 58, Illinois 50
• Wisconsin 63, Minnesota 68
• Rutgers 75, Purdue 57
• MSU 82, Michigan 86

Conference contender Ohio State saw my "auto-win" designation for Wisconsin in last week's post and decided to lose to them that very evening. I'd be upset for looking foolish but if that's how it happens I'm cool with it.

The Standings

Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added records for games against Q1 teams in the NET rankings and HHS's adjusted team rankings.

For the moment, the Maryland/Michigan/Indiana trio are a cut above the rest of the league in efficiency margin with the three packed within 1.5 points per 100 possessions of each other. The Terps are a more offensive-oriented team while M and IU have remarkably similar offense/defense splits.

Rutgers is a team to keep an eye on. They've played even fewer games than Michigan because of COVID postponements, which have created a big gap between the human polls and computer-generated rankings. It's going to be difficult to get a read on the Scarlet Knights until the Big Ten Tournament, if ever; the last four games currently on their schedule are Illinois, at MSU, at PSU, and finally a big test in the finale at home versus OSU. They did play Maryland close back in December but unless games are made up they won't face M or IU in the regular season.

Bracket Watch: Postponements Are A Factor

KBA was not pleased with the early NCAA bracket reveal [Scott]

The looming question heading into Monday's official top-16 mock bracket reveal was how the selection committee would take postponements into account. Would teams be punished for not playing as many games others? In large part by leaving Michigan off the list, the committee answered with a resounding 'yes':

But one of the unknowns heading into this reveal was how the committee would look at teams that haven't played as much. We now have our answer: Playing fewer games was a significant negative to the résumé.

"We looked at Michigan but ultimately felt that their body of work didn't warrant a top-16," King said. "It is difficult to gauge the full capabilities of a team when they haven't played as much."

The Big Ten fared poorly in general. While Maryland got placed as the seventh overall seed, in line with their NET ranking, Indiana ended up 15th despite being ninth in NET. Both issues got a rise out of Kim Barnes Arico:

“The (Southeastern Conference) was really rewarded last night. I’m upset for our league, as I am for our team. It totally feels uphill,” Barnes Arico said about the Big Ten conference and the NCAA selections. “I’ve kind of been outspoken all year long about our conference, and nationally I thought it took a turn, until last night.” ...

“For us to be penalized for (postponing) doesn’t seem fair,” Barnes Arico said.

She added that the snub was a "slap in the face," in case she hadn't been clear enough. Her frustration is warranted, since one knock-on result of the committee evaluating teams this way is programs like Michigan and Rutgers will feel pressure to make up a large number of games in a short period of time. It's a tough choice between adding games to potentially move up one or two seed lines or standing pat and hoping the final resume holds up better while keeping the players more rested.

It doesn't seem like the Wolverines are in a hurry to cram a bunch of games into the last couple weeks of February. Given they play Indiana and Ohio State this week and travel to Iowa next week, that's the right call. They have a chance at a couple statement wins before the Big Ten Tournament, and a run there could propel them to the same seed line a couple extra regular season games—it's not like there's a guarantee the committee will give M a great seed anyway given how they're looking at the Big Ten.

For now, ESPN has dropped the Wolverines from their previous perch on the three-seed line down to a five-seed to match the committee's outlook.

[Hit THE JUMP for scheduling frustrations, recapping the Purdue and MSU wins, and more.]

The women's team returns to action tomorrow evening at Purdue, and while they'll be returning from a significant layoff, they may be closer to full strength than at any point this season. First, let's catch up with the conference outlook.

Some notable Big Ten results since the last post (home team listed second):

• Michigan 77, OSU 81
• Indiana 74, Northwestern 61
• Maryland 86, OSU 88
• MSU 52, Maryland 92
• OSU 78, Indiana 70
• Northwestern 87, Iowa 80
• MSU 67, Indiana 79
• OSU 57, Northwestern 69
• Iowa 87, OSU 92
• Nebraska 74, PSU 85
• Indiana 85, Iowa 72
• Northwestern 63, MSU 60
• Nebraska 62, Rutgers 78

Despite a slip-up against a surging Northwestern squad, Ohio State is your biggest winner of the last two weeks. The Buckeyes, who self-imposed an NCAA Tournament ban for this season, became the first–and thus far only—Big Ten team to knock off first-place Maryland after surviving Naz Hillmon's incredible 50-point game to knock off Michigan, the conference's other previously undefeated squad.

Beating Indiana and Iowa in that stretch means OSU got through one of the toughest possible stretches of games in the B1G with only one loss, and that's going to keep them in the thick of the title race to the end.

The Standings

Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added records for games against Q1 teams in the NET rankings.

The league is stratified enough that it's pretty easy to lump teams into larger tiers than I've had for the men's side:

Tier I (contenders): Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Northwestern
Tier II (solid middle): Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, Penn State
Tier III (pretty bad): Minnesota, Purdue
Tier IV (auto-win): Illinois, Wisconsin

Nobody is catching up to the top five. While Michigan is in the worst shape by far in terms of number of games played, they've had the best efficiency margin in the conference despite missing their second-best player for the last four games. The Wolverines have only played two of the four other contenders, however, beating Northwestern before falling at OSU. There's a lot left to happen before the conference tournament is played March 9th-13th.

[Hit THE JUMP for a breakdown of the contenders by schedule, the Purdue preview, and LEIGHA BROWN BACK.]

It's been 12 days since the last edition of these posts (my apologies, I'm adjusting to covering two sports with condensed schedules as best I can), and Michigan has played two games, both blowouts against teams winless in Big Ten play. The in-state rivalry matchup with Michigan State slated for Monday was postponed because of COVID issues for the Spartans.

Michigan hasn't emerged unscathed from the pandemic, either; Leigha Brown has missed the last three games because of COVID protocol just as much of the bench returned from their own absences.

Some notable Big Ten results since the last post (home team listed second):

• Iowa 67, Northwestern 77
• Purdue 46, Maryland 83
• Illinois 50, Michigan 70
• Nebraska 68, MSU 64
• OSU 84, Iowa 82 (OT)
• Michigan 69, Wisconsin 40
• Indiana 66, Purdue 45
• OSU 55, Nebraska 63
• Maryland 79, Wisconsin 70
• Purdue 81, Iowa 87
• Minnesota 76, Nebraska 71

The Standings

Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've now limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added NET rankings, as well, and removed the uselessly reactive RPI projections. Sometimes less information is better. RPI itself might be the next casualty; if I had more time before I should be posting this I'd probably replace it with records vs. Q1 and Q2 NET teams, which seems more useful given the imbalanced schedules. Next week.

Much like on the men's side, four teams had seemingly separated themselves at the top until recent results obscured the picture. Ohio State, which looked like a solid top-four team, needed overtime to escape a very Iowa team (great offense, iffy defense, solid overall) before a surprise loss at Nebraska. Northwestern, meanwhile, found its way back into the rankings by beating those same Hawkeyes by ten before smashing Penn State on the road.

As for Michigan:

1⃣1⃣

Highest AP ranking ever in school history. #goblue pic.twitter.com/KOhPEoYvTR

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 18, 2021

They're doing pretty well.

[Hit THE JUMP for M's record-setting defensive stretch, Wisconsin's extreme approach to Hillmon, and more.]