The women's team returns to action tomorrow evening at Purdue, and while they'll be returning from a significant layoff, they may be closer to full strength than at any point this season. First, let's catch up with the conference outlook.

Some notable Big Ten results since the last post (home team listed second):

• Michigan 77, OSU 81
• Indiana 74, Northwestern 61
• Maryland 86, OSU 88
• MSU 52, Maryland 92
• OSU 78, Indiana 70
• Northwestern 87, Iowa 80
• MSU 67, Indiana 79
• OSU 57, Northwestern 69
• Iowa 87, OSU 92
• Nebraska 74, PSU 85
• Indiana 85, Iowa 72
• Northwestern 63, MSU 60
• Nebraska 62, Rutgers 78

Despite a slip-up against a surging Northwestern squad, Ohio State is your biggest winner of the last two weeks. The Buckeyes, who self-imposed an NCAA Tournament ban for this season, became the first–and thus far only—Big Ten team to knock off first-place Maryland after surviving Naz Hillmon's incredible 50-point game to knock off Michigan, the conference's other previously undefeated squad.

Beating Indiana and Iowa in that stretch means OSU got through one of the toughest possible stretches of games in the B1G with only one loss, and that's going to keep them in the thick of the title race to the end.

The Standings

Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added records for games against Q1 teams in the NET rankings.

The league is stratified enough that it's pretty easy to lump teams into larger tiers than I've had for the men's side:

Tier I (contenders): Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Northwestern
Tier II (solid middle): Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, Penn State
Tier III (pretty bad): Minnesota, Purdue
Tier IV (auto-win): Illinois, Wisconsin

Nobody is catching up to the top five. While Michigan is in the worst shape by far in terms of number of games played, they've had the best efficiency margin in the conference despite missing their second-best player for the last four games. The Wolverines have only played two of the four other contenders, however, beating Northwestern before falling at OSU. There's a lot left to happen before the conference tournament is played March 9th-13th.

[Hit THE JUMP for a breakdown of the contenders by schedule, the Purdue preview, and LEIGHA BROWN BACK.]

Surprise, Scheduling is a Mess Here Too

As you may have noticed in the standings table, there have been some seriously imbalanced schedules in the conference so far. On the low end, Rutgers has played five Big Ten games and Michigan six. Meanwhile, Wisconsin already has 14 conference games done, Nebraska's at 13, and the ten other teams have all played at least ten.

We're four weeks out from the conference tournament. There's little chance Rutgers and Michigan are going to reach the full 20 games originally on the schedule, so I presume some reshuffling is going to be in order. Just in case this becomes relevant, here a table showing which teams each of the contenders have already played, since the priority with a shortened schedule is generally to make sure every team gets at least one matchup with each conference opponent. If there's a game already on the schedule for teams in the "teams left" column, I've put them in italics:

There's one big matchup missing from the remaining slate: Michigan vs. Maryland. That could very well determine the conference champion—let's hope they do the reasonable thing and award the title by win percentage—and I assume the Big Ten will do what it can to get that one on the schedule.

The Wolverines have played a schedule of extremes, splitting difficult road games at OSU and Northwestern but also playing half their schedule against Illinois and Wisconsin, which have combined for one Big Ten win that didn't occur against the other cellar-dweller (the Illini upset Purdue). If the conference moves games around to get Maryland, MSU, PSU, and Rutgers back on the schedule, there's not going to be much in the way of a break for the stretch run.

Meanwhile, Indiana just lost a key player in Jaelynn Penn, who was fourth on the team in scoring and rebounding, third in assists, and first in steals before opting out this week as injuries piled up:

Penn was averaging 9.5 ppg but shooting a career-low 27.7% from 3. She had off-season surgery for plantar fasciitis and originally thought she might redshirt, then a sprained ankle sidelined her for 3 weeks in January before she returned. #iuwbb

— Jeremy Price (@JPPrice) February 7, 2021

The Hoosiers have been excellent of late but this may hold them back.

Purdue Mini-Preview: Leigha Brown Is Back

Michigan returns to the floor for the first time since falling to OSU on January 21st. I can confirm that Leigha Brown will return to the lineup; she'd been on the verge of coming back from a COVID-related absence when the athletic department shut down. If you missed last week's mailbag that touched on this subject, it's hard to overstate the importance of Brown being on the court:

Michigan has, conveniently for this exercise, played four non-cupcake opponents* with Leigha Brown in the lineup prior to her missing the last four games. The good/bad news is it's not your imagination: the Wolverines are a much worse team without Brown. (Data via Her Hoop Stats.)

	2PM-2PA	3PM-3PA	AST/G	TO/G	PPP
with L. Brown	102-172 (59.3%)	25-58 (43.1%)	18.3	15.0	1.20
w/o L. Brown	81-183 (44.3%)	14-74 (18.9%)	11.8	15.8	0.99

The competition was slightly tougher in the sample with Brown in the lineup, as if those numbers weren't extreme enough already. Brown's inside-outside scoring and shot creation take Michigan from a decent, defensive-oriented team to a fringe top-ten team. Her replacements are role players and the Wolverines need another star to pair with Naz Hillmon; there's no greater testament to Brown's importance than M losing a game in which Hillmon scored 50 points.

Other than catching Illinois again, this was as good a way to ease back into playing as Michigan could hope. Purdue is ranked 156th on Her Hoop Stats (the WBB KenPom) with the #140 offense and #190 defense. They're a poor shooting team and getting into a paint war with the Wolverines is brutal.

This is Purdue, so they have good size: 6'4 Senegalese center Fatou Diagne is averaging 9.3 and 10.3 rebounds in Big Ten play with nearly half of her boards coming on offense, and she's backed up by 6'6(!!!) freshman Ra Shaya Kyle, who's productive in limited minutes. The engine on offense is 5'9 point guard Kayana Traylor, the team's only double-digit scorer in Big Ten play, albeit on poor shooting efficiency and with more turnovers than assists. Fellow freshman guard Madison Layden is a defensive pest and easily the team's most dangerous outside shooter.

For Michigan, this will be the first time the team is close to full strength; by the time Emily Kiser returned to the floor from her preseason injury, Brown was out of the lineup. We'll see how Kim Barnes Arico manages the lineup now that there's more depth up front.

This Week's Schedule

All times Eastern. Subject to change.

Today: PSU at Indiana (3, BTN), OSU at Wisconsin (7, BTN+), Illinois at Minnesota (7, BTN+)
Thursday: Rutgers at Northwestern (4, BTN), Michigan at Purdue (6, BTN), Iowa at Nebraska (8, BTN)
Saturday: MSU at PSU (noon, BTN)
Sunday: Northwestern at OSU (12:30, BTN), Rutgers at Purdue (2, BTN+), Wisconsin at Minnesota (2, BTN+), Indiana at Illinois (3, BTN+), Maryland at Nebraska (5, FS1)