It's been 12 days since the last edition of these posts (my apologies, I'm adjusting to covering two sports with condensed schedules as best I can), and Michigan has played two games, both blowouts against teams winless in Big Ten play. The in-state rivalry matchup with Michigan State slated for Monday was postponed because of COVID issues for the Spartans.

Michigan hasn't emerged unscathed from the pandemic, either; Leigha Brown has missed the last three games because of COVID protocol just as much of the bench returned from their own absences.

Some notable Big Ten results since the last post (home team listed second):

• Iowa 67, Northwestern 77
• Purdue 46, Maryland 83
• Illinois 50, Michigan 70
• Nebraska 68, MSU 64
• OSU 84, Iowa 82 (OT)
• Michigan 69, Wisconsin 40
• Indiana 66, Purdue 45
• OSU 55, Nebraska 63
• Maryland 79, Wisconsin 70
• Purdue 81, Iowa 87
• Minnesota 76, Nebraska 71

The Standings

Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've now limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added NET rankings, as well, and removed the uselessly reactive RPI projections. Sometimes less information is better. RPI itself might be the next casualty; if I had more time before I should be posting this I'd probably replace it with records vs. Q1 and Q2 NET teams, which seems more useful given the imbalanced schedules. Next week.

Much like on the men's side, four teams had seemingly separated themselves at the top until recent results obscured the picture. Ohio State, which looked like a solid top-four team, needed overtime to escape a very Iowa team (great offense, iffy defense, solid overall) before a surprise loss at Nebraska. Northwestern, meanwhile, found its way back into the rankings by beating those same Hawkeyes by ten before smashing Penn State on the road.

As for Michigan:

1⃣1⃣

Highest AP ranking ever in school history. #goblue pic.twitter.com/KOhPEoYvTR

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 18, 2021

They're doing pretty well.

[Hit THE JUMP for M's record-setting defensive stretch, Wisconsin's extreme approach to Hillmon, and more.]

Solving Your Problems With Defense

shots taken with one leg parallel to the ground tend not to go in [Scott]

Leigha Brown's absence from the lineup has put a dent into the offense, which has cracked 1.00 points per possession only once in the three games she's missed, barely doing so against a bad Illinois team. The Wolverines have weathered this by holding each of those three opponents below 0.90 PPP. The Illini game wasn't even the team's most dominant performance statistically and they did this:

The Michigan defense allowed just three points in the second quarter, the fewest points scored by a Big Ten team in a quarter against Michigan since the NCAA went to quarters before the 2015-16 season. #goblue

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) January 10, 2021

Michigan's defense is 15th nationally in eFG% allowed, sixth in defensive rebounding, and 38th in opponent free throw rate; they're towards the bottom in turnover rate as they focus more on contesting shots and protecting the boards than gambling for steals, but as we've seen with the men's team, you can field an elite defense with a rock-bottom turnover rate.

While M's opposition isn't coughing up the rock, they're also not tallying many assists: 46.4% of opponent makes are assisted, 35th-fewest in the country. In fact, teams facing the Wolverines record more turnovers per game (12.8) than assists (10.3).

The question for both the defense and the team as a whole is how things hold up when the schedule gets tougher. Michigan has faced only one team with an offense in the top half of the Big Ten, Northwestern. They won 84-63 in a 70-possession game, passing that test. The top-tier offenses don't show up on the schedule until early February, however, when a nationally televised game against Maryland could determine the top team in the conference. For now, we'll have to be satisfied with the Wolverines taking mediocre-to-bad offenses and making them look bad-to-atrocious.

That's One Approach, Sure

even when Hillmon isn't dominant, she dominates the attention [Scott]

Naz Hillmon had her usual output against Illinois with an efficient 24 points and 13 rebounds. Wisconsin, which allowed 22 and 13 to Hillmon in their first matchup, was dead set on preventing M's star from leading the way in the scoring column. From the outset of Thursday's game, the Badgers sent hard double teams every time Hillmon touched the ball.

It worked—in a way. Michigan jumped out to a 20-2 lead while getting only four points out of Hillmon in that span; they also hit three three-pointers during that run and had four baskets assisted by either Hillmon or fellow big Hailey Brown. The Badgers refused to deviate from the plan. Here's how that looked:

Hillmon finished with a season-low six points on only six field goal attempts; she also tallied 15 rebounds and a career-high seven assists against one turnover. Maddie Nolan had a scorching start and ended with a career-high 21 points, making 5/11 three-pointers. Akienreh Johnson had 15 points and 11 boards. Seven Wolverines pulled down at least one offensive rebound.

Maybe a better opponent can make this approach work. Hillmon's willingness and ability to make the right pass instead of forcing her own offense doesn't bode well for double teams, however, especially if defenses aren't mixing up their looks to prevent her from knowing what's coming. With Hillmon playing distributor, Michigan went 9/24 on threes, and they were almost exclusively wide-open looks.

For more on the last couple games, Matty Blue has you covered with Illinois and Wisconsin recaps.

This Week's Outlook

Two televised games this week means you'll hopefully get the chance to watch this squad. First, they travel to #17 Ohio State tomorrow afternoon for a 3 pm tipoff on BTN. The Buckeyes self-imposed an NCAA Tournament ban for this year, so the Big Ten is their entire focus. They've been an excellent defense team, as expected, but have scuffled on offense, ranking 13th in the conference in eFG% and free throw rate and last in offensive rebounding. Only a lack of turnovers is keeping them above the conference cellar-dwellers on that end of the floor. A full preview is posted on the official site.

Michigan then comes back home on Sunday (2 pm, BTN) to host Purdue, a team that's had trouble keeping up with the top end of the conference. Given how much the schedule ramps up on the back end, securing as many winnable games up front is paramount for this team's conference title chances. The Buckeyes are beatable on the road and that'd be a nice feather in this team's cap. The Athletic's Chantel Jennings has the top of the Big Ten bunched together in her NCAA power rankings:

11. Maryland (11-1) | —
12. Michigan (10-0) | ↑ 2
13. Oregon (9-3) | ↓ 3
14. Indiana (8-3) | ↑ 2
15. Arkansas (11-5) | ↑ 3

The Big Ten has been a wild ride

It’s weird to imagine what the postseason would look like, but if we have conference tournaments, I can’t wait to see what happens in the Big Ten. Prediction: Chaos. While there is more parity in the SEC and the Pac-12 this year, there seem to be more potential upsets in the Big Ten. You’ve got the top group in Maryland, Michigan and Indiana, and I don’t think Ohio State is far behind. Anytime Nebraska steps on the floor, I have no idea what will happen (we’ll get to that). Northwestern is a wild card. Iowa has Caitlin Clark and I’m learning not to bet against her (or to leave her off any watch lists). And Arella Guirantes and Rutgers could take down a top-25 team before the end of this season.

OSU is 19th, and Nebraska—a tough team to figure out—is 25th. If the current bracketology is an indication, the Big Ten champion is likely to top out as a two-seed, and not winning probably means being on the three-line at best (which is where M currently projects on ESPN). This is a big week for holding serve and putting pressure on the Terps to do the same.

Big Ten Tiers

Sure, why not?

Tier I: Maryland, Michigan, Indiana
Tier II: Ohio State, Northwestern, Iowa
Tier III: Nebraska, Michigan State, Rutgers
Tier IV: Purdue, Minnesota, Penn State
Tier V: Illinois, Wisconsin

This Week's Schedule

All times Eastern.

Thursday: Michigan at OSU (3, BTN), Wisconsin at Purdue (6), Illinois at Northwestern (7)
Sunday: Indiana at Northwestern (noon, ESPN2), Purdue at Michigan (1, BTN), MSU at Wisconsin (3)
Monday: Minnesota at Penn State (6, BTN), Maryland at Ohio State (7, ESPN2), Nebraska at Illinois (8, BTN)