Hillmon got help [JD Scott]

WBB Catchup Flips The Script Comment Count

Ace March 22nd, 2021 at 3:37 PM

This is going to be a quick catchup given the tightly packed schedule of this extended tourney weekend. I'll have a full WBB Weekly post later in the week.

Michigan Beats FGCU in First Round

Michigan's tournament week got off to a rough start. First they drew Florida Gulf Coast, considered a difficult 11-seed because of their five-guard, three-heavy offensive attack. Then starting point guard Amy Dilk didn't make the trip to San Antonio due to vague "medical issues." The Wolverines offense had already sputtered down the stretch and now they had to keep up with a high-octane team without their lead ballhandler. FGCU was one of the most popular first-round upset picks.

The Eagles opened the game with a steal and a three-pointer to extend the auspicious start beyond tipoff. Hailey Brown answered with her own three-pointer assisted by fill-in starter Danielle Rauch, however, and the Wolverines controlled the game from there other than a second quarter blip with Naz Hillmon in foul trouble. A second-half explosion for Leigha Brown put a close game out of reach.

Leigha Brown led all scorers with a season-high 28 points, 24 of which came after halftime. She scored with obscene efficiency, shooting 12/16 from the field and 4/6 from the line. All her makes came from two-point range as she used her size advantage to great effect. It's hard to overstate the importance of Brown's breakthrough; she hadn't shot above 50% from the field in over a month, then did so in a game when Hillmon had trouble finishing and scored a mere 14 points to go with her 13 boards.

While she finished with only two assists, Brown also functioned as the team's lead ballhandler for much of the game in Dilk's stead. Akienreh Johnson also had the ball in her hands quite a bit; she scored 15 points on 14 shooting possessions, pulled down ten rebounds, and dished out a team-high six assists, albeit with five turnovers. Johnson, as usual, also played some of the best defense on the team.

The biggest surprise was the disparity in three-point shooting. Michigan, not a great shooting team, sank 8/20 from beyond the arc. FGCU, which made more threes than any other team in the country this season, hit 9/29 from downtown. Johnson, Rauch, Hailey Brown, and Maddie Nolan all sank two apiece.

Getting into the second round can't be taken for granted given this program's history. Michigan did it without a starter while their best player had a relative off-game. That didn't seem likely after how this team played for the last month or so, and it gives hope for the chance of a second-round upset against three-seed Tennessee.

[After THE JUMP: a quick Tennessee preview]

WHAT #16 Michigan (15-5, 9-4 B1G)
vs #13 Tennessee (17-7, 9-4 SEC)

WHERE The Alamodome
San Antonio, Texas
WHEN 5 pm Eastern
Tuesday, Mar. 23rd
THE LINE HHS: UT -0.5
TELEVISION ESPN2
PBP: Kevin Fitzgerald
Analyst: Christy Thomaskutty

In The Athletic's tournament preview, Chantel Jennings noted Tennessee could have trouble if their opponent can rebound:

No. 3 Tennessee (16-7): Led by senior Rennia Davis, the Volunteers are a really strong rebounding team, and one their early-round opponents might not have seen before. But if they get to the Sweet 16 and beyond, when they’ll face teams that can compete with them on the boards, the Vols will need to tackle the small details to keep winning.

Guess what Michigan can do? These two teams are mirror images on the boards; Tennessee ranks sixth in offensive rebound rate and 24th in defensive rebound rate, while Michigan is tenth and 21st, respectively. 

The similarities extend beyond rebounding. Both teams largely eschew the three-point shot and attack the hoop instead, though Michigan is better at getting to the line. Both turn the ball over more than ideal while not forcing many. Both play stout defense inside the arc, though the Vols have a decided edge in that regard.

6'2 wing Rennia Davis is a national player of the year candidate who's going to be a handful. Here's a description of her game via The Athletic's Joe Rexrode:

The 6-foot-2 Davis is going to be a high pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft. Her game — driving and finishing with both hands, defending four positions, rebounding, underrated passing skills, a better long-range shot than her career 32 percent accuracy from 3-point range suggests, especially in pressure moments — should translate well.

She averages 17.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game. Again, much like Michigan, the Vols are top-heavy with their scoring; nobody else averages double figures except 6'1 junior wing Rae Burrell, who scores 17.0 and shoots 40% from beyond the arc. They do have an imposing interior presence in 6'5 sophomore Tamari Key, who averages 9.0 points on 64% shooting (entirely on twos), pulls down nearly half of her 5.5 boards on the offensive end, and blocks 2.8 shots per game.

If Michigan can generate a turnover gap, they'll have a shot to pull the upset. The Vols are susceptible. That goes both ways, though. If this comes down to a battle of top-end talent, Leigha Brown needs to come through with a repeat performance.

Comments

T Bone

March 22nd, 2021 at 4:58 PM ^

I have seen Izabel Varejão on the sidelines the past 3-4 weeks, so she obviously finally made it back to campus from Brazil. It seems like she has been back long enough to get in at least decent game shape. I wonder if there is any chance she’ll play yet this season. Would be great to have another experienced big, especially if Naz and/or Hailey get in foul trouble.

matty blue

March 23rd, 2021 at 9:02 AM ^

i have to say, fgcu terrified me.  kierstan bell is the kind of player that seems unstoppable when she's interested.  AK was obviously going to guard her, which (with amy dilk out) would leave maddie nolan and / or danielle rauch on a 5'-3" point with a murderous first step.  and with a team that put up around a thousand threes (not a typo), it was easy to imagine a game where we got down early and got run out of the gym.

as it turned out, bell was only intermittently interested - she was clearly not used to the kind of defense that AK put on her and spent long stretches half-assing it out on the perimeter.  it was the emptiest 25 points you'll ever find.  meanwhile, fgcu had no answer for the inside-out of naz and leigha brown, and everybody else made enough shots to turn it into a surprisingly easy coast.

anyway. i feel a bit more confident about tonight's game - tennessee and michigan are very, very similar teams in terms of overall profile.  they both rebound like crazy; michigan is a bit better defensively, tennessee a bit better offensively.  tennessee has a few more quadrant 1 wins (south carolina, kentucky, arkansas, indiana), but michigan probably has more quadrant 2 wins.

the wild card here; which michigan will show up?  through mid-january michigan was absolutely pounding quality teams and hadn't really cruised since.  they'd had some quality games (ohio state, northwestern, a close loss to indiana), but they'd also scuffled for long in-game stretches.  they didn't do that on sunday.  another effort like that tonight?

survive and advance, baby.

OkemosBlue

March 23rd, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^

Despite too many turnovers, the ball movement yesterday was better yesterday.  Unsurprisingly, the outside shooters did better as a result, but the difference was L. Brown and her rejuvenation as a scorer. The Lady Vols will be a tough test, but they're an easier matchup than the no. 1 or no. 2 teams that the Wolverines have drawn in other years.  Go Blue!