WBB Weekly Readies For Restart
So, it's been a minute. Michigan's first two scheduled Big Ten games were postponed because of COVID-19 concerns in the program, meaning they haven't played in a game setting since December 9th against Butler. The Wolverines are set to retake the court tomorrow afternoon at home against Wisconsin, which is off to an 0-2 start in conference play, before a marquee matchup at Northwestern on Sunday.
The Standings
The table is a bit rougher on the women's side because, unlike with Big Ten men's basketball, there have been a number of cancelations/postponements. By my count, four of the 16 scheduled conference matchups have been postponed (every game involving Michigan or Ohio State, both of which had outbreaks) and an additional 12 non-conference games involving Big Ten teams have been postponed or outright canceled.
We're also working with the results-oriented RPI instead of projection-oriented KenPom/Torvik numbers, though Warren Nolan's site has predicted standings and RPI projections I'm using here despite a lack of explanation about the methodology beyond "based on this season's previous results." Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which notably are not adjusted for schedule quality, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats.
Record | Proj. Rec. | RPI | Polls | Efficiency | |||||||||||
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Team | Ovr. | B1G | Ovr. | B1G | Current | Proj. | AP | Coach | OE | DE | EM | ||||
NWern | 4-0 | 2-0 | 17-4 | 15-4 | 15th | 46th | 15th | 16th | 112.6 | 74.6 | +37.9 | ||||
MSU | 7-0 | 2-0 | 16-8 | 11-8 | 22nd | 100th | 25th | 26th | 109.8 | 82.5 | +27.3 | ||||
IND | 4-2 | 2-0 | 18-5 | 16-3 | 76th | 39th | 20th | 18th | 101.6 | 71.5 | +30.0 | ||||
UMD | 5-1 | 1-0 | 23-1 | 19-0 | 3rd | 2nd | 14th | 14th | 122.9 | 99.6 | +23.3 | ||||
PUR | 5-2 | 2-1 | 10-13 | 7-12 | 45th | 144th | 97.7 | 95.2 | +2.6 | ||||||
IOWA | 5-1 | 1-1 | 12-10 | 8-10 | 24th | 129th | 33rd | 32nd | 111.3 | 98.8 | +12.6 | ||||
RUT | 5-1 | 1-1 | 19-4 | 15-4 | 141st | 23rd | 33rd | 34th | 118.1 | 71.6 | +46.5 | ||||
OSU | 4-0 | 0-0 | 18-4 | 14-4 | 23rd | 17th | 17th | 15th | 126.6 | 73.3 | +53.4 | ||||
U-M | 5-0 | 0-0 | 16-7 | 11-7 | 26th | 86th | 16th | 17th | 116.1 | 84.7 | +31.4 | ||||
NEB | 3-3 | 1-2 | 8-14 | 6-13 | 111th | 214th | 91.7 | 93.8 | -2.1 | ||||||
ILL | 2-2 | 0-1 | 2-20 | 0-18 | 177th | 287th | 86.0 | 81.3 | +4.7 | ||||||
PSU | 3-2 | 0-1 | 8-15 | 5-14 | 182nd | 224th | 101.8 | 87.7 | +14.1 | ||||||
WIS | 3-2 | 0-2 | 6-16 | 3-16 | 167th | 241st | 98.7 | 94.5 | +4.2 | ||||||
MIN | 1-4 | 0-3 | 2-19 | 1-18 | 161st | 280th | 85.2 | 109.8 | -24.6 |
Wisconsin should be relatively easy work for Michigan if they're not too rusty from the layoff. Northwestern, on the other hand, is one of the better programs in the Big Ten; M's triumph over the Wildcats in last season's Big Ten Tournament after losing competitive games in both regular season matchups was a big moment for Kim Barnes Arico's program.
That win over NW was a sign Michigan could compete at a top-25 level. They're right around there in RPI and well within both the traditional polls. While the voters are believers, the lack of a quality win has kept the RPI projections relatively skeptical. Sunday's game could help change that.
[Hit THE JUMP for Wisconsin and Northwestern previews.]
Preview: Wisconsin
WHAT | #16 Michigan (5-0, 0-0 B1G) vs Wisconsin (3-2, 0-2) |
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WHERE | Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
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WHEN | 12:30 pm Eastern Thursday, Dec. 31st |
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THE LINE | N/A | |
TELEVISION | BTN-Plus($) |
THE US
Michigan could get a depth boost if Emily Kiser, a 6'3 junior forward, is ready to play. Kiser averaged 8.5 minutes in 29 appearances off the bench last season but hasn't yet appeared in 2020-21 because of a preseason ankle injury. She was reportedly spotted in warmups before the Butler game, an indication she was nearing a return earlier this month.
Adding Kiser to the rotation would take some pressure off the three starting forwards—Naz Hillmon, Hailey Brown, and Leigha Brown—who have been carrying heavy minutes loads while being leaned on for a lot of production (yes, those numbers are up to date despite the post being weeks old). With backup center Izabel Varejao still stuck in Brazil because of pandemic-related travel restrictions, some extra depth up front would be quite welcome.
THE THEM
The Badgers have had three non-conference games canceled and currently stand at 3-2 (0-2 Big Ten), losing 85-78 at Iowa and 70-65 at home against Rutgers to open their B1G slate. Wisconsin is expected to finish towards the bottom of the Big Ten after going 3-15 in the conference last year.
Wisconsin leans very hard on sophomore guard Sydney Hilliard, who's averaging 23 points while shooting 63% on twos and 42% on the occasional three with a 36% assist rate and even a decent offensive rebound rate. Given the general offensive environment—the Badgers offense is scoring 0.99 PPP even though Hilliard is posting a 1.05 mark on 27% usage—she's been remarkably efficient.
The other main player to watch is 6'1 junior forward Imani Lewis, who uses nearly as many possessions as Hilliard and puts up good raw stats (14.6 PPG, 9.6 RPG) but is shooting just 42% on twos while missing her only three-point attempt and only blocking a single shot.
Wisconsin plays fast, which Michigan is happy to do, and they also turn it over a lot while generating very few in the other direction. They don't shoot very well in any facet and allow opponents to put up solid shooting splits with a high number of three-point attempts; the Wolverines don't usually play outside-in but they haven't been bashful about hoisting from deep when it's open this season. Michigan also projects to have a solid edge on the boards. This should serve as a tune-up game for...
Preview: Northwestern
priority #1 is slowing down Lindsey Pulliam [Scott]
WHAT | #16 Michigan (5-0, 0-0 B1G)* at #15 Northwestern (4-0, 2-0)* |
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WHERE | Welsh-Ryan Arena Evanston, IL |
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WHEN | 5 pm Eastern Sunday, Jan. 3rd |
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THE LINE | N/A | |
TELEVISION | ESPN2 |
*Both Michigan (obviously) and Northwestern play on Thursday. The Wildcats face Nebraska, so odds are good both teams are still undefeated heading into Sunday's tilt.
ESPN named this the game of the week. Like, in the country:
GAME OF THE WEEK
Michigan at Northwestern, Sunday. The 16th-ranked Wolverines finally are off pause and will face No. 15 Northwestern in an early-season Big Ten contest. Michigan hasn't played since Dec. 9. Both teams also play Thursday afternoon.
It's also on national TV. I assume you're writing all of this down.
THE THEM
Northwestern got a late start to the season after their opener was canceled; they're currently 4-0 (2-0 Big Ten) with blowout wins over Minnesota and Purdue heading into their own Thursday game against cellar-dwellar Nebraska.
All-American candidate guard Lindsey Pulliam is off to a bad start from beyond the arc but has maintained her high-level scoring off the bounce. Meanwhile, last year's Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Veronica Burton, has been a dominant force on both ends of the floor as a junior. From Inside NU's Big Ten power rankings, a recommended read:
The ‘Cats are off to a hot start, and despite facing some shooting challenges early this season, they have rolled through their first two Big Ten matchups and all of their nonconference opponents. Veronica Burton has carried the team, averaging 21 points and 5.5 assists per game. Wood has emerged as a threat on both sides of the court, scoring 14 points per game in addition to her dominant defense. And Lindsey Pulliam maintained her dominant play despite some below-average shooting nights. With more challenging Big Ten opponents on the horizon, it remains to be seen how the small lineup will matchup against some of the conference’s strongest post players.
Northwestern's projected starters are Jordan Hamilton (5'8), Burton (5'9), Pulliam (5'10), Sydney Wood (5'11), and Courtney Shaw (6'0), though Paige Mott (6'1) has started a game in place of... Shaw. Michigan will have a significant size advantage if the Wildcats don't change that up; the Wolverines start Amy Dilk (6'0), Akienreh Johnson (6'0), Leigha Brown (6'1), Hailey Brown (6'1), and Naz Hillmon (6'2). This is literally a point-guard-is-as-big-as-their-center situation.
That should make for a fascinating stylistic clash. The Wildcats have had an efficient offense even while shooting well below their potential from beyond the arc, even crashing the offensive glass among the best in the country (44.4 OR%), somehow. They also give up a ton of offensive rebounds themselves (35.2%), which portends a massive game for Hillmon. NW has the second-highest steal rate in the country; M has been prone to getting pickpocketed.
ESPN2. 5 pm. Sunday. Write it down.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^
Do we know which, if any, players were affected by COVID, and whether they’ll be available?
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
I didn't see Maddie Nolan or Whitney Sollom on Thursday. They could've been out because of something COVID-related or some other circumstances.
December 30th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^
Go, Blue. Beat Red. Then Purple.
December 31st, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
Thanks for the previews/updates
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