2020-21 northwestern wbb
Michigan Gets Six Seed
already one of the best teams in program history [Scott]
It felt a little strange seeing Michigan get a six-seed in last night's selection show. On one hand, there was a sense of disappointment after the COVID pause and a late-season swoon knocked the team off their track to a top-four seed. On the other, well...
Highest seed in program history...let's go dancing!
— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) March 15, 2021
6⃣
Let the madness begin!#goblue #ncaaw pic.twitter.com/KnAZE6VwU0
...this is literally the best seed in program history. This is a good reminder that the men's and women's programs have been in two very different places historically even though the more recent impression is that both have slowly pulled their way out of extended down periods. This is the first time the women's team has made three consecutive tourney appearances.
Kim Barnes Arico couldn't have played for a previous Michigan Final Four team because there is no previous Michigan Final Four team. The women's program made their first of what's now nine NCAA Tournament appearances in 1990. They're 5-3 in opening-round games and 0-5 in the second round. While this may not be quite the breakthrough year that the team's charge out of the gates portended, the program is making steady forward progress.
This team faced plenty of challenges, from COVID issues that went well beyond the athletic department's layoff to an extended absence from Leigha Brown to expected breakout sophomore Izabel Varejao being stuck in Brazil until the last couple weeks and looking headed for a redshirt year. They still made history. The stumbles down the stretch shouldn't diminish that one bit.
[Hit THE JUMP for M's tournament path ft. one of the weirdest teams in the bracket, plus reviews of the BTT and Big Ten awards.]
Notable results since the last post (home team listed second):
- OSU 67, PSU 69
- Rutgers 63, MSU 53
- Maryland 88, Purdue 59
- Michigan 67, Iowa 89
- Indiana 87, OSU 75
- Maryland 62, Northwestern 50
- PSU 56, Rutgers 74
- Iowa 80, Indiana 89
- Maryland 88, Michigan 63
- OSU 63, Rutgers 71
- PSU 61, Maryland 88
- Purdue 59, Indiana 74
- Northwestern 58, Michigan 63
- Nebraska 75, Iowa 83
After a rough couple games against Iowa and Northwestern, Michigan bounced back with a Senior Day victory over Northwestern to secure a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines were also supposed to visit Minnesota last weekend but that game was canceled due to a COVID issue in the Gophers program.
Maryland, Indiana, and Rutgers all closed strong down the stretch to earn the top three seeds in the BTT. Ohio State, on the other hand, faded hard, perhaps because their postseason ban deprived them of motivation once the regular season title was out of reach.
The Final Regular Season Standings
Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added records for games against Q1 teams in the NET rankings and HHS's adjusted team rankings.
| Record | Rankings | Efficiency (B1G Only) |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Ovr. | B1G | Q1 | AP | Coach* | HHS | NET | OE | DE | EM | ||
| MD | 21-2 | 17-1 | 7-2 | 7th | 8th | 5th | 5th | 121.0 | 92.5 | +28.5 | ||
| IND | 18-4 | 16-2 | 5-4 | 9th | 10th | 11th | 9th | 106.3 | 84.8 | +21.5 | ||
| RUT | 14-3 | 10-3 | 3-2 | 19th | 26th | 10th | 11th | 106.9 | 91.9 | +15.1 | ||
| U-M | 14-4 | 9-4 | 3-4 | 13th | 12th | 22nd | 18th | 101.2 | 92.7 | +8.5 | ||
| NW | 13-7 | 11-7 | 4-5 | 25th | 43rd | 33nd | 95.2 | 88.0 | +7.2 | |||
| IOWA | 15-8 | 11-8 | 4-7 | 32nd | 30th | 26th | 25th | 115.8 | 107.8 | +7.9 | ||
| OSU | 13-7 | 9-7 | 5-4 | 22nd | 20th | 23rd | 22nd | 98.8 | 95.9 | +2.9 | ||
| MSU | 13-7 | 8-7 | 1-5 | 44th | 41st | 99.1 | 96.7 | +2.4 | ||||
| NEB | 11-11 | 9-10 | 4-6 | 116th | 77th | 96.4 | 101.6 | -5.2 | ||||
| MIN | 8-12 | 7-11 | 0-8 | 208th | 135th | 95.6 | 108.3 | -12.7 | ||||
| PSU | 9-14 | 6-13 | 1-9 | 123rd | 89th | 94.7 | 105.3 | -10.6 | ||||
| PUR | 7-15 | 4-14 | 0-9 | 164th | 121st | 90.4 | 104.4 | -14.0 | ||||
| ILL | 4-17 | 2-16 | 0-9 | 260th | 174th | 80.9 | 100.9 | -20.0 | ||||
| WIS | 5-18 | 2-18 | 1-11 | 209th | 157th | 86.6 | 108.0 | -21.4 | ||||
*The coaches poll isn't updated until tomorrow, so those rankings are a week behind. Expect Rutgers to move up and Northwestern to drop. Michigan will probably slide at least a spot, as well.
Michigan's Big Ten efficiency margin essentially got cut in half over the last couple weeks. Even though they only won the conference by one game, the Terps pulled away as the class of the conference; their only loss in the B1G came by two on the road at Ohio State in late January, when the Buckeyes were playing like a top-15 team.
Indiana could be close, though. Other than a four-point road loss at Maryland, they have the same blemish—a loss in Columbus. The Hoosiers haven't been quite as dominant but they've moved into the top ten nationally.
[Hit THE JUMP for the BTT bracket, a look back at M's last few games, and updated tiers.]
It's been quite a stretch for Michigan, which overcame a number of COVID-19 related absences over the last three games—including star forward Leigha Brown last night against Nebraska—to go 3-0 to open conference play and move up to 11th in the NET rankings. Brown's absence was felt in the two-point win over the Huskers, which required a historic night from Naz Hillmon to pull off, but prior to that the Wolverines recorded two blowouts, including a nationally televised stomping of a then-ranked Northwestern team.
Some notable Big Ten results since the last post (home team listed second):
- Northwestern 63, Nebraska 65
- Wisconsin 49, Michigan 92
- Rutgers 84, Iowa 90
- Michigan 84, Northwestern 63
- MSU 71, Purdue 64
- Rutgers 50, Nebraska 53
- Indiana 80, Maryland 84
- Minnesota 79, Iowa 92
- Nebraska 62, Michigan 64
- Maryland 93, MSU 87
Last night's Purdue-Rutgers game was postponed because of COVID-19 issues.
The Standings
We're working with the results-oriented RPI instead of projection-oriented KenPom/Torvik numbers, though Warren Nolan's site has predicted standings and RPI projections I'm using here despite a lack of explanation about the methodology beyond "based on this season's previous results." Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've now limited to Big Ten games (small sample size caveats abound but it's more informative than including unadjusted numbers from non-conference games), are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added NET rankings this week, as well.
| Record | Proj. Rec. | RPI | Ranks | Efficiency (B1G Only) |
||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Ovr. | B1G | Ovr. | B1G | Current | Proj. | AP | Coach | NET | OE | DE | EM | ||||
| UMD | 8-1 | 4-0 | 23-1 | 19-0 | 3rd | 5th | 14th | 14th | 12th | 117.4 | 107.0 | +10.4 | ||||
| U-M | 8-0 | 3-0 | 20-3 | 15-3 | 14th | 19th | 15th | 14th | 11th | 114.8 | 82.9 | +32.0 | ||||
| OSU | 6-0 | 2-0 | 19-3 | 15-3 | 32nd | 10th | 16th | 16th | 7th | 100.6 | 77.0 | +23.6 | ||||
| IND | 6-3 | 4-1 | 19-4 | 17-2 | 50th | 21st | 19th | 18th | 15th | 109.0 | 81.9 | +27.1 | ||||
| IOWA | 8-1 | 4-1 | 14-8 | 10-8 | 28th | 100th | 29th | 28th | 27th | 120.0 | 101.8 | +18.2 | ||||
| MSU | 8-1 | 3-1 | 16-8 | 11-8 | 19th | 87th | 23rd | 24th | 31st | 102.8 | 98.6 | +4.1 | ||||
| NWern | 5-2 | 3-2 | 11-10 | 9-10 | 58th | 152nd | 22nd | 23rd | 45th | 103.5 | 88.8 | +14.7 | ||||
| NEB | 5-4 | 3-3 | 10-12 | 8-11 | 67th | 177th | 108th | 88.2 | 96.5 | -8.3 | ||||||
| PUR | 5-3 | 2-2 | 10-13 | 7-12 | 62nd | 146th | 103rd | 97.7 | 100.0 | -2.3 | ||||||
| RUT | 5-3 | 1-3 | 17-6 | 13-6 | 153rd | 56th | 19th | 100.0 | 103.1 | -3.1 | ||||||
| MIN | 2-5 | 1-4 | 4-17 | 3-16 | 161st | 248th | 234th | 90.2 | 110.8 | -20.6 | ||||||
| PSU | 3-5 | 0-4 | 8-15 | 5-14 | 126th | 204th | 81st | 94.4 | 113.5 | -19.1 | ||||||
| ILL | 2-5 | 0-4 | 2-20 | 0-18 | 174th | 303rd | 185th | 80.7 | 111.0 | -30.3 | ||||||
| WIS | 3-5 | 0-5 | 4-18 | 1-18 | 218th | 274th | 162nd | 88.9 | 112.8 | -23.8 | ||||||
Yes, Michigan has the best efficiency margin in the conference—though they've played a relatively easy schedule—and first-place Maryland has been in some surprisingly close games. (Though, again, schedule strength comes into play; the Terps had to fight off a late run against a very good Indiana team this week.)
The Wolverines are behind only Ohio State among B1G teams in the NET rankings, which have finally been introduced on the women's side to replace RPI (I might delete the RPI column next week, the projections I hoped would be useful are extremely volatile). The Buckeyes recently self-imposed an NCAA Tournament ban for possible rules infractions.
THIRTY-FIVE AND TWENTY-TWO
basically moses malone [JD Scott]
OKAY SO I MAY HAVE BURIED THE LEDE A BIT.
Naz Hillmon posted the second 30-20 game in program history last night, tying a career-high with 35 points and pulling down a career-best 22 rebounds, 13(!) of them on offense, to all but single-handedly pull Michigan past an upset-minded Nebraska squad coming off unexpected wins over Northwestern and Rutgers.
[Hit THE JUMP for a lot of Naz GIFs, how Michigan overloaded NW, and more.]
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