Results since the last post (home team listed second):

• Illinois 58, Maryland 103
• Nebraska 71, Northwestern 64
• Minnesota 56, Rutgers 83
• Michigan 65, Indiana 70
• Purdue 85, OSU 100
• PSU 78, Iowa 96
• Minnesota 62, Maryland 94
• Wisconsin 54, Northwestern 67
• Illinois 46, Rutgers 75
• OSU 66, Michigan 75
• Purdue 73, MSU 76
• PSU 72, Nebraska 87
• Iowa 93, Maryland 111 (!!!)

Maryland is looking increasingly difficult to catch even though their lead over Indiana only stands at one game. The Terps offense is one of the most explosive in the country—they averaged over 102 points per game in their three wins this week.

The Standings

Per-100-possession efficiency numbers, which I've limited to Big Ten games, are pulled from Her Hoop Stats. I've added records for games against Q1 teams in the NET rankings and HHS's adjusted team rankings.

	Record				Rankings					Efficiency (B1G Only)
Team	Ovr.	B1G	Q1		AP	Coach	HHS	NET		OE	DE	EM
MD	17-2	13-1	6-2		8th	8th	5th	5th		122.7	95.8	+26.9
IND	14-4	12-2	3-4		11th	11th	11th	10th		104.5	83.2	+21.3
U-M	13-2	8-2	3-2		12th	12th	16th	14th		104.3	86.9	+17.4
OSU	13-4	9-4	5-3		15th	14th	22nd	19th		100.8	94.8	+6.0
NW	12-5	10-5	4-4		27th	25th	37th	32nd		97.2	88.1	+9.1
RUT	10-3	6-3	1-3		25th	27th	7th	11th		109.3	94.6	+14.7
MSU	12-6	7-6	1-4				39th	39th		100.4	98.0	+2.4
IOWA	12-7	8-7	3-6			28th	32nd	30th		114.6	107.9	+6.7
NEB	11-9	9-8	4-5				94th	75th		95.5	99.7	-4.2
MIN	7-11	6-10	1-8				194th	143rd		94.7	109.0	-14.3
PSU	8-11	5-10	0-7				141st	95th		96.7	105.2	-8.5
PUR	6-13	3-12	0-7				146th	127th		91.1	104.0	-12.9
WIS	5-15	2-15	1-9				200th	157th		87.4	108.1	-20.6
ILL	3-15	1-14	0-10				254th	180th		78.5	102.0	-23.5

After Michigan easily dispatched Ohio State on Sunday and Northwestern dropped another game they should've won, Rutgers has emerged as the most dangerous team outside of the top three contenders.

A lengthy COVID pause means the Scarlet Knights are well behind the rest of the league in games played, which has put a hard cap on their rankings in the polls, but the advanced stats love them. Led by top-ten WNBA prospect Arella Guirantes, who's averaging 22 points per game, RU has a top-ten adjusted offense and top-20 defense on Her Hoop Stats. They're going to be a tough out in the conference tourney.

[Hit THE JUMP for the Indiana and OSU games in review (with GIFs!), the possible return of a key piece, and this week's tiers/schedule.]

The Indiana Game, Briefly

you called what [Scott]

When not interrupted, Michigan and Indiana played a game worthy of their high rankings, trading blows in a game that featured 17 lead changes and 12 ties. The Hoosiers were red-hot from beyond the arc, hitting 9 of their 18 threes, while the Naz Hillmon/Leigha Brown duo did their usual damage inside, combining for 42 points on 35 shooting possessions.

This game could've gone either way. A late jumper by Ali Patberg, who led IU with 21 points, gave her team enough of an edge to hold on at the line for a 70-65 win. Michigan had an opportunity to tie the game in the final minute only for Hillmon to get stripped of the ball in the post. 

Sounds like a classic, right? Unfortunately, the officials whistled 39 fouls (20 on Michigan, 19 on Indiana). In 40 minutes. On the Michigan side, starting center Hailey Brown fouled out, Hillmon was limited to 30 minutes with four fouls—two of which she picked up in the opening three minutes—and both Leigha Brown and Akienreh Johnson also finished with four fouls. Indiana star big Mackenzie Holmes picked up four fouls herself, as did fellow starter Nicole Cardano-Hillary.

I don't know if the officials swayed the outcome because I don't know what these two teams look like against each other when they're allowed to play basketball. I hope they face off again in the BTT with a different crew. The Hillmon/Brown dominance feels more sustainable than Indiana making a season-high in three-pointers again.

Ohio State, Much Less Briefly

Amy Dilk played one of her best games of the year [Scott]

When these rivals played in Columbus, Michigan didn't have Leigha Brown, so Naz Hillmon scored 50(!!!) points and the Wolverines still lost. On Sunday, Brown was in the starting lineup. After coming off the bench two games ago and then splitting minutes evenly with Maddie Nolan against Indiana, a different Amy Dilk also took the court. Michigan got their revenge in relative comfort, as it took a late Ohio State push to get the final score to 75-66. The Wolverines led by as much as 19 in the second half.

Dilk played with controlled aggression from tipoff to final buzzer. While she only shot 3/10 from the field, she opened the game by drawing a shooting foul and finished 6/8 from the line. She repeatedly sliced through OSU's zone or picked spots in scramble situations that got her to the charity stripe. The buckets she hit were of the difficult, late-clock variety, pushing the ball in transition, and drilling a corner three. The shots she missed sometimes drew enough attention to open up a Hillmon putback.

Most importantly for the third-year point guard, six assists were offset by a lone turnover—and she instantly mitigated the error by stopping the ensuing fast break with a well-timed strip. She manipulated the zone with pass fakes to open up shooters:

She also found different ways to accomplish the most important goal in any given halfcourt set: get the ball to Naz.

Other than a clunker of a second quarter, Michigan hung around 50% shooting for most of the game. The Buckeyes mirrored the Wolverines in the first half, then fell way off the pace in the third. That third quarter was a 24-11 Michigan blowout in which Hillmon led a collective 10/19 effort from the field while suffocating defense limited OSU to 3/9 FGs and six turnovers. This play by Hailey Brown and AK Johnson is emblematic:

Hillmon was her usual phenomenal self, leading all scorers with 27 points on 19 shooting possessions with five offensive rebounds and only two turnovers in 31 minutes. Her boundless energy stands out every time she takes the court and this game was no exception. She scored multiple baskets early in the shot clock because she outran her counterpart and established great post position against single coverage, which she's going to score on approximately 100% of the time:

That energy also translates to halfcourt play, where she's constantly working for post position or finding the best angle to attack the boards. The first part, in particular, helped Michigan pick apart OSU's zone. The Daily has a great film breakdown that details the team's zone offense approach and how Kim Barnes Arico told them to attack:

“We knew we had to flatten (the zone) out and at halftime, we talked about how we were going to do that,” Barnes Arico said after the Ohio State game on Feb. 21. “And I was really proud of the way that we came out in the second half and moved the basketball between the bottom of the zone, and Leigha (Brown) got a wide-open three. The next possession they came running out (and) we dumped down.”

One Leigha Brown three referenced is the Dilk skip pass embedded earlier in this section. She also missed an open look from the corner on the next possession that Hillmon rebounded, eventually leading to a Dilk drive and free throws. Here's the dump-down:

Michigan's inside-outside threat exploited OSU for the entire second half. The first possession that came to mind after reading KBA's quote was a Johnson drive that pulled the defense low before she kicked it to Hailey Brown for a wide open three. The team also displayed gorgeous passing around the horn that opened up the interior for Hillmon:

The other key to victory was post defense, which was also covered by the Daily. (Read the Daily.)

The phenomenal play was led by graduate senior forward Hailey Brown and junior forward Emily Kiser. 

Kiser only played for 15 minutes, scoring four points, but was dominant in her defensive effort on the block, locking up key Buckeyes such as forward Dorka Juhász, a contender for National Player of the Year. Juhász is averaging 15.9 points and 11.2 rebounds per game but was held to a single point thanks to the efforts of Brown, and Kiser and even graduate student guard Akienreh Johnson. 

“Kiser was fabulous,” Michigan coach Kim Barnes Arico said “She came in and gave us great minutes.”

While this was only the sixth game all season Kiser has played double-digit minutes, the junior forward was ready for the spotlight. I got to name a GIF "Kiser Roll," for which I'll be forever appreciative. She held up whether on the ball or helping off of it, which is how she recorded a crucial fourth-quarter steal as OSU looked for a comeback with Hillmon in foul trouble. (Yes, again. Yes, the fourth foul was bad.)

This was likely Michigan's last chance to get a second ranked win in the regular season unless Iowa has a strong finish (and there's a decent chance M's first ranked victim, Northwestern, drops out of the polls), so coming away with the victory was huge for the team's potential tournament seed. Coming right on the heels of MBB's win in Columbus, it also made for a great Sunday. Just please don't overlap those games next time.

Brazilian Big Back?

even in a mask, it's hard to hide when you're 6'4 [Scott]

In an intriguing development, our photographer JD Scott spotted Izabel Varejao on the sideline during warmups on Sunday. Varejao, who was expected to play a significant role off the bench after showing great promise as a freshman, hasn't played yet this season because she was stuck in Brazil due to pandemic travel restrictions.

There's no official word on Varejao's status as of yet. If she's able to come back for the stretch run, it'd bolster the bench and give the team a true backup center—she's the only player on the roster listed at center instead of guard or forward.

Prepare Heart Medication Accordingly

Before the men's team hosts a high-scoring, defensively iffy Iowa team on Thursday evening, the women's team travels to Iowa City to face a high-scoring, defensively iffy Iowa team (4:30, BTN). Here's how their last game went:

That's some Hawkeye basketball. Freshman Caitlin Clark is their version of a young Luka Garza, averaging 27.3 points, making 56% of her twos and 40% of her threes, and leading the team with 6.5 assists per game. They have four other shooters in hanging between 38% and 46% (flamethrower McKenna Warnock). They rank fourth in offense on Her Hoop Stats.

The defense ranks 224th. Expect a couple shootouts on Thursday. After that game, Sunday afternoon's matchup with Minnesota should feel like a leisurely stroll.

Updated Tiers

Last week's:

Tier I (cream of the crop): Maryland, Michigan, Indiana
Tier II (fringe contenders): Ohio State, Northwestern, Iowa, Rutgers
Tier III (soft middle): Michigan State, Nebraska, Penn State
Tier IV (pretty bad): Minnesota, Purdue
Tier V (auto-win): Illinois, Wisconsin

This week's:

Tier I (cream of the crop): Maryland, Michigan, Indiana
Tier II (fringe contenders): Rutgers, Ohio State, Northwestern, Iowa
Tier III (soft middle): Michigan State, Nebraska
Tier IV (pretty bad): Penn State, Minnesota, Purdue
Tier V (auto-win): Illinois, Wisconsin

Only two adjustments: bumped PSU down a tier after they were on the wrong end of blowouts against Iowa and Nebraska and moved Rutgers to the top of Tier II.

This Week's Schedule

All times Eastern. Subject to change. All games on BTN+ unless otherwise noted.

Today: Rutgers at MSU (3, BTN), OSU at PSU (5, BTN), Indiana at Wisconsin (7), Northwestern at Illinois (7), Nebraska at Minnesota (7)
Thursday: Michigan at Iowa (4:30, BTN), Maryland at Purdue (6)
Saturday: MSU at Nebraska (2), Indiana at OSU (3, BTN)
Sunday: Rutgers at PSU (12:30, BTN), Illinois at Purdue (2), Michigan at Minnesota (2:30, BTN), Iowa at Wisconsin (3, FS1), Maryland at Northwestern (4, ESPN2)