FORMATION NOTES: Rutgers ran a normal-ass defense.

They were in a 4-3 virtually all day. The safeties were not exceptionally nosy and the linebackers did not blitzball. Normal defense.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Nothing unusual except for the Henderson/Hinton rotation you're already aware of. Some interesting WR/TE snap counts, though:

• Barner: 49
• Johnson: 46
• Wilson: 45
• Loveland: 40
• Bredeson: 20
• Morris: 18
• Moore: 9
• Hibner: 5
• Morgan: 3

TE #3 had more snaps than WR #3. There can't be another program in America that's done that this year.

[After THE JUMP: reach out and mash face]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M37	1	10	Pistol FB twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	8	Run	Iso	Corum	5
Blitz off the slot means the EMLOS doesn’t have to maintain force. Nugent(+0.5) and Zinter(+1) combo through one DT with Zinter getting an eliminating second level block. Bredeson(+2) pancakes the LB trying to fill this gap. Wilson cannot get to the slot guy and nobody is checking JJ so Corum has to ram this upfield, no cut possible; Hinton(-0.5) doesn’t really control the end and he’s able to give ground to get around, tackling at about three yards of depth. RPS -1; this play functionally has an unblocked end without a read (I am assuming).
M42	2	5	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7.5	Pass	TE out	Loveland	Inc
I’m not sure why you wouldn’t give this some token PA; slot LB steps forward a tiny bit and would probably take the one additional step to make this open. Instead dude is in great coverage. There is a window here in front of Loveland but this is basically on his numbers, so the LB can reach out and PBU. I don’t think this is turnover-worthy as it would have had to have been a spectacular diving catch. (IN, 0, protection 1/1, JJ -0.5)
M42	3	5	Gun empty	1	1	3	Dime even	5.5	Pass	Sack	N/A	-2
Rutgers sends five; Keegan successfully passes off a stunt to Nugent and picks up the looping LB. JJ has plenty of time to find someone and cannot, breaking the pocket and getting tripped up by the LB as he’s just about to scramble for a first down. Could really use an all 22 replay here; BTN’s only shows Barner and Wilson, both very covered. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2, JJ -0.5)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-7, 13 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M6	1	10	Gun TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 over	8.5	Run	Belly	Corum	2
I can’t always tell if something is base inside zone or a subtle variant, but I think this is RR’s old belly play where the goal is to shove everyone down the line and then pop underneath a LB/DE held by a QB read. This DE has no thought that JJ would keep and I have to assume at this point that an intentionally unblocked DE means a read is live; therefore JJ -2, ZR-. Blocking looks fine, with Barner(+1) and Hinton(+0.5) comboing to fire the relevant DT way down the line; Hinton pops off on the LB. Zinter(+0.5) and Nugent(+0.5) move the other DT; Corum is staying away from the end and runs up the backs of his guys for a few.
M8	2	8	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Run	Duo	Corum	14
Rutgers lightens the box and that’s an oopsie. Zinter(+1) and Nugent(+1) pound a DT; less emphatic from Loveland(+0.5) and Hinton(+0.5) on the other guy but they do enough to cause both ILBs to suck inside; there’s no edge and Corum(+2) blazes outside. Morris(-1) airballs a block but turns around and gets a second guy; Corum hurdles the guy Morris airballed and converts. RPS +1.
M22	1	10	Pistol FB twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	7.5	Pass	PA out	Wilson	Inc
Wilson goes in fast motion here as he will for big chunks of the game; M wants him running at the snap. PA; Wilson(route+) goes vertical, then breaks out for a couple yards of separation; JJ wings it wide. (IN, 0, protection 2/2, JJ -1)
M22	2	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	6.5	Pass	Tunnel screen	Morgan	8
I seriously have no idea when the last M tunnel screen was. Anyway. Barner(+0.5) gets a sticky kickout; Keegan(+0.5) gets out to wall off a LB. Barnhart(-0.5) doesn’t do as good of a job as Nugent(+0.5) at the bit where you fling the guy you’re blocking upfield and the playside DE is able to retrace and tackle from behind as soon as Morgan starts trying to juke guys. (CA, 3, screen, JJ push, RPS +1)
M30	3	2	Gun 4-wide tight	2	1	2	Nickel over	6	Pass	Flat	Edwards	33
Play is designed to drag Edwards across the formation, get his man-to-man defender hung up, and convert. Nobody goes with Edwards, so that’s fun. Dink turns into 30. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5, RPS +3)
O37	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Tecmo Flicker Y Delay	Loveland	35
Yeehaw, handoff to Corum, flip to Edwards, flip back to McCarthy. Two deep routes carry three RU defenders off to the suburbs, and Loveland fakes a block before releasing. Nobody within a city block of him. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, RPS +3, JJ +1)
O2	1	G	Goal line	1	4*	0	Goal line	11	Run	Iso	Corum	2
Nugent(+0.5) and Zinter(+1) hammer the nose; Zinter pops off on a LB, standing him up Bredeson(+0.5) puts that guy in the endzone. Hinton(+0.5) stalemates his block but keeps him out of the hole.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 6 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M34	1	10	Pistol TTB	1	2	2	Nickel over	6.5	Run	TE power	Edwards	8
This does not feature a pulling lineman but it’s power; the two guys pulling are the TEs. Bredeson(+1) motions presnap and head-hunts the EMLOS, bashing him off the ball and then reconnecting. This has the movement of a +2 block but after the hit Bredeson loses contact briefly and that could be costly against a better player. Barner(+0.5) gets a kickout. Barnhart(+1) and Keegan(+1) absolutely crush a DT off the ball, which ends up not being relevant but could have been if Bredeson had to kick his DE out instead of RU playing to spill. The lack of a pull makes it look like split zone and this almost convinces a LB to bury his face in the line but he’s able to resist and speed around the Keegan/Barnhart block to clip Edwards(+0.5) just as he is about to hit the jets against a safety. RPS +1.
M42	2	2	Pistol FB	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Pass	Dumpoff	Edwards	8
PA; Rutgers has three deep defenders and a M2M guy going with Wilson, so likely brackets on the deep gents. JJ smartly checks it down to an open Edwards. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5)
50	1	10	Gun 3-wide	2	1	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Inside zone	Corum	2
Slant from the DL gets M here; Zinter(-1) and Hinton(-0.5) get split by Lewis. Nugent(+0.5) gets a similar slant and is able to get his guy on the ground, albeit dubiously. Corum has to run away from Lewis; not a lot of room as Keegan(-0.5) gave a half yard and then got shed. Barnhart(+0.5) got a kickout to provide the sliver of space available.
O48	2	8	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	TE out	Barner	5
Plenty of time; JJ doesn’t see anything appealing and checks it down to Barner. Replay? NOPE. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5)
O43	3	3	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 under	9	Run	Inside zone keep	McCarthy	16
Similar situation to first belly play above where the read guy is on the second level; he once again charges in and JJ(+1, ZR+) goes yoink and has a free chunk play. RPS +2.
O27	1	10	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Split duo	Edwards	1
Zinter(+1) and Hinton(+1) crush a guy off the ball; Hinton climbs to a linebacker. Other double is less emphatic but does work; Keegan(+0.5) and Nugent(+0.5) fire a guy off the ball. Keegan attempts to come off the double to get a CB who is the extra hat in the box but has no time to get there because Edwards(-1) charges ahead into a gap away from the doubles with an unblocked guy in it. A gear down to set something up would have been potentially profitable.
O26	2	9	Pistol TTB	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	TE Power	Edwards	3
Bredeson(+1) fires in the OLB again; less emphatic this time but stays connected. Johnson(-1) is supposed to crack the safety and largely misses. He does get something on him; just not enough. Barner(+0.5) then sees the flash of white and decides to finish off the S. This is reasonable since a CB crack replacing is often not a good tackler not in good position but this guy plays it excellently, taking down Edwards after a short gain. If Johnson gets this safety this is probably a TD. RPS +1, as the LB level still doesn’t know what it’s looking at.
O23	3	6	Gun trips	1	2	2	Nickel over	6	Pass	TE out	Loveland	4
Either Hinton or Edwards screws up a protection here as both go to a slot blitzer, leaving Lewis untouched up the middle. JJ gets off a throw under tremendous pressure, hitting Loveland and setting up a makeable fourth down. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2, JJ +1. Hinton -2) Hinton was the issue here per Webb.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(42), 7-7, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M21	1	10	Ace TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Inside zone	Corum	1
Henderson in. He gets into a stalemate with a DE; either Barner or Corum messes up here. Barner does not chip the DE and instead extends to a LB. DE has outside arm free. Corum cuts to the Rutgers side of the RU/Henderson block and the DE disengages to tackle. With a lot of backside focus and a double on the NT this feels like a Corum(-1) issue; the Henderson block wasn’t great but dude was definitively to one side and Corum goes to that side. The rest of this blocking is push-level.
M22	2	9	Gun 3-wide	1	2*	2	4-3 even	7.5	Run	Insert iso	Corum	1
Loveland in motion from a slot into the box and shoots between Jones and Barnhart. Zinter(+1) rips a DT inside; Jones(+0.5) gets a kickout on a DE; Barnhart(+0.5) gets a second level block; Loveland(+0.5) does enough. All for naught as Nugent(-2) gets shocked back by a guy shaded outside of him; he loses definitively to the inside; Corum cuts away from the white shirt away from the POA and ends up getting submarined by a twist that Keegan(-0.5) can’t adapt to fast enough.
M23	3	8	Gun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	6	Pass	PA y cross	Wilson	23
Wilson fast motion against M2M; he briefly feints upfield like a previous route before extending back to the sideline(route+) with a yard of separation. Twist almost gets through but Keegan’s able to adjust and shove the twister upfield; if JJ has to climb the pocket he can. He does not; he puts it on Wilson’s number, allowing Wilson to run after the catch. (DO, 3, protection 3/3, JJ +2)
M46	1	10	Pistol 3-wide	1	2*	2	4-3 under	7	Pass	Scramble	McCarthy	22
Mostly man to man but a RU safety sits down as a robber/spy in the middle of the field. .He sees Edwards leak out of the backfield and goes towards him; another LB does so as well. Five man RU rush versus a six man protection that holds up; Jones picks up an OLB blitzer and shoves him to the point where he’s ten yards upfield. JJ is scanning then sees the green grass and takes off, picking up a chunk. (SCR, N/A, protection 3/3, JJ +1)
O32	1	10	Pistol FB twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	8	Pass	PA dig	Johnson	Inc
Max pro PA again. Wilson gets a bracket; Johnson (route -) is one on one in man and gets blanketed when his attempt to sell an outside route is not bought and the DB shoots up on the dig. At this point JJ best option is probably the Edwards checkdown, but JJ tries the dig. It’s in front of Johnson but it looks like Johnson takes a weird upfield step before recovering, possibly induced by a shove from the DB, and this throw might be right while the WR is wrong. Mutual handfighting leads to an incompletion. (CA, 1, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5)
O32	2	10	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 even	8	Run	Insert iso	Corum	4
Blocking good here, with Henderson(+1) getting a kickout and then driving that DE way downfield when he tries to give ground to get around. Bredeson(+0.5) pops the MLB as a puller. Keegan(+0.5) and Nugent(+0.5) drive the NT off the ball. Corum(+0.5) hits the gap and has to avoid the extra hat in the box, so he runs up the back of some blockers. RPS -1.
O28	3	6	Gun 4-wide	1	2	2	Nickel even	6	Pass	TE out	Loveland	5*
Quick out against a CB gets Loveland a yard of separation, ball fired in, Loveland very clearly reaches out to convert but refs(-1) say no and replay(-1) doesn’t fix it. FFS. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5)
O23	4	1	Gun 3TE	1	3*	1	4-3 tight	7.5	Run	Dive	Corum	2
There’s just not enough meat on the line for RU to hold up here. RPS +1
O21	1	10	Gun TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Insert iso	Corum	3
Another insert, this one from Barner(+0.5). Keegan(+0.5) and Nugent(+0.5) again blow their guy out; MLB taking on Barner is able to funnel to help and Corum meets the other LB head on in the gap.
O18	2	7	Pistol 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Pass	PA y cross	Wilson	Inc
Line ends up overcommitting to the right; when Bredeson stays into block his defender green dogs and jets around the outside untouched. JJ looks like he’s about to fire it to a bracketed Johnson but resets in the pocket and fires up a looper to Wilson (route-), who I think should do better here. He’s running a Y cross and is looking at JJ when the pressure comes; he then looks over his opposite shoulder and as a result cannot find the throw until it’s way too late. If Wilson doesn’t do this he has plenty of time to adjust to the throw and probably score. (CA+, 0, protection ½, TEAM -1, JJ +1)
O18	3	7	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	Exotic	6.5	Pass	Slot fade	Morgan	18
Well, ok. More man to man from RU; Semaj Morgan is given an opportunity to run a slot fade. He doesn’t get separation; JJ lays in a perfect back shoulder ball that Morgan catches despite being interfered with. (DO, 1, protection 2/2, JJ +3)
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-7, 2 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M10	1	10	Gun TTB	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	Out	Johnson	Inc
Hinton back at RT. This is a quick out winged well wide of Johnson; came out of his hand funny, this is not a tight spiral. (IN, 0, protection 1/1, JJ -1)
M10	2	10	I-Form Big	1	3	1	4-3 under	8	Run	Counter	Corum	9
CB blitz and a slant away. Loveland(+1) picks up the CB and fires him way outside on an attempt to disconnect. Hinton(+0.5) releases free but gets shoved by a slanting DE; he’s still able to climb and get a shove in on a LB, then redirect to harass him some more. Zinter(+0.5) gets a mostly free downblock; Keegan(+1) pulls and has to find the DE slanting inside; Bredeson(+0.5) hooks the MLB and Corum(+1) has a clear path for a few yards, then smartly cuts back behind Hinton to maximize the gain.
M19	3	1	Gun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Belly	Corum	8
Barner(+1) really gives Lewis the business after he engages with Barnhart, big gap so there’s going to be a conversion here even if the OLB doesn’t check up on JJ, allowing Corum to blaze past the LOS unmolested and get a better gain. RPS +1.
M27	1	10	Gun TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 under	7.5	Run	Inside zone	Corum	5
Keegan(+1) and Barnhart(+1) get a double that moves a DT three yards off the ball and Keegan climbs after. Barner(+1) is able to slide over and get a not-quite-reach against a guy lined up inside of him. Nugent gets bulled back a bit, recovers a bit, and lets his guy tackle from the side, push. Corum(+1) runs into the pile, gets contact at about two yards, and then Michigan scrums it for another four. Ball comes out but ruled down, hard to tell if this is a fumble; lean yes, but results-based charting.
M32	2	5	I-Form	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Edge pitch	Corum	4
This play wants Hinton to immediately climb to an ILB and cut him off but he gets blocked off the LOS by a DE and has no chance to get there. Nugent’s supposed to get the other ILB and gets held by a DT, uncalled, refs -2. Wilson’s supposed to crack on the DE; kind of wish he’d see what’s happening with Hinton and retarget to his CB but that’s obviously asking a lot. Bredeson(+0.5) kicks the first LB, nobody for the second or the CB and they tackle. This is three yards on second and four with one made block so I guess it’s an RPS push?
M36	3	1	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Dive	Edwards	1
I mean, it’s a dive. Edwards clearly gets this but is marked short, refs -1.
M36	4	In	Gun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over tight	8	Run	Belly keeper	McCarthy	9
This is going to convert on a give as Mullings cuts backside and Loveland(+1) has crushed an OLB expecting dive. JJ(+1, ZR+) sees that the edge guy is gone and keeps. Wilson(+0.5) gets a kickout. JJ could probably get to the 50 but goes 90 degrees out of bounds after a chunk. RPS +1.
M45	1	10	Pistol twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	Scramble	McCarthy	5 (Pen -5)
PA, max pro. JJ is loading up to fire when Hinton’s guy comes around the corner at eight yards and flushes JJ; this is a sack if anyone else is getting through but they’re not; Barner is able to ID a LB green dog and get a shove in. JJ breaks the pocket and gets a solid gain. (SCR, N/A, protection 0/2, Hinton -2, JJ+0.5). Johnson(-1) lined up off the LOS.
M40	1	15	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	6.5	Run	Counter	Edwards	1
The yikes Edwards play. Barnhart(+1) fires in a DE, passes him off to Keegan, and climbs to the LB on the second level. Zinter(+1) pulls and finds the guy trying to shoot inside, eliminating him. Bredeson(+0.5) is there to kick out an ILB; Edwards(-3) has a lane that’s somewhere between eight and a touchdown and RUNS OUTSIDE OF A KICKOUT BLOCK AGAINST A SET EDGE. FFS.
M41	2	14	Gun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	Dig	Wilson	25
M leaves Corum in and Rutgers blitzes off the slot while rushing just three otherwise; the slot is way too far away to be relevant. JJ has a comfortable pocket and then Rutgers just mega-busts their zone, so Wilson is wide open directly in front of JJ’s face. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +1)
O34	1	10	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Duo	Corum	11
M blocks the extra guy here by both Hinton(+1) and Barner(+0.5) leaving a DT after he’d been shot a yard downfield; DT falls over from the sudden lack of pressure and both guys get second level blocks. Zinter(+1) blows a DT down the line for a crease that Corum(+1) takes advantage of, slaloming through the gates.
O23	1	10	Gun TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Inside zone	Corum	1
RU sells out on stopping the inside run here and uses their single high S as JJ contain; this looks like it should be a pull based on the front but there is no unblocked DE so I think this is not live. Keegan(-0.5) and Nugent(-0.5) get stuck at the LOS on their double; Barnhart(-0.5) whiffs a second level block; Barner(+0.5) does a good job to get inside his guy and hold up. RPS -1.
O22	2	9	Gun 3-wide	1	2	2	Nickel even	6	Pass	Slot fade	Barner	Inc
Barner goes in fast motion across the formation before the snap and does not draw someone with him so implication is zone but RU has a switch on and moves into a pattern match, it looks like, with MEG on Wilson. Barner is covered and JJ has plenty of time so he should come off this for Wilson or Loveland, open on crossing routes. Throw still has a chance to succeed if it’s in the buttzone but it’s too low and clangs off the defender. (BR, 0, protection 2/2, JJ –2)
O22	3	9	Gun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	5.5	Pass	Sack	N/A	-6
Clever route combos appear to get everyone past the sticks open but Hinton(-2) is beat clean and Barnhart(-1) gives up the inside after initially stymieing an outside rush; JJ needs another half-beat, doesn’t get it, and has nowhere to go. (PR, N/A, protection 0/3)
Drive Notes: FG(46),17-7, 7 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M34	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	TE flat	Barner	4
Henderson back. This is a quick hit to Barner that is immediately tackled. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ push).
M38	2	6	Gun TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Duo	Corum	1
This starts with seven in the box but the S inserts as the force player so a DE hops inside of Barnhart and Zinter immediately has to peel off his block; meanwhile on the backside Lewis hops outside for contain and the slot LB charges in from the outside unblocked as Barner goes for an ILB. Because this is duo Henderson is always going to double and not come off so there’s not really another play here except making JJ an option and it’s 24-7 against Rutgers in the late third. Henderson, Barner, and Loveland +0.5 each; RPS -1.
M39	3	5	Gun trips	1	1	3	Exotic	7	Pass	Scramble	McCarthy	5
Barnhart(-2) gets whipped around the corner by Lewis; Zinter (gold star) comes over and blasts a DT over as he looks for work; this gives JJ a lane up the middle. He breaks the DE tackle, and then avoids a LB sufficiently to extend the ball to convert. (SCR, N/A, protection 0/2, JJ +1 run)
M44	1	10	Gun TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Run	Duo	Edwards	0
Same deal as S inserts as force guy. M blocks it better but also gets a little lucky as the OLB who tackled on the previous play gets held up because the ILB is so aggressive that he hits Barner(+0.5) at the LOS; he doesn’t have a lane to attack. Henderson(+1) and Keegan(+0.5) clobber a DT off the ball so there’s a cutback lane for a solid gain. Edwards(-2) runs directly into the force S.
M44	2	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Drag	Wilson	11
Same play as the previous incompletion on the slot fade to Barner; this time JJ knows he’s got Wilson on a drag against man with a bunch of clearouts so he hits it. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, JJ +0.5)
O45	1	10	Gun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	TE seam	Loveland	28
Henderson(-1) gives up too much ground here on a bull rush and his guy is dangerously close to hitting JJ’s throwing arm. JJ gets it away and the ball is a buttzone dart in between a bracket. Giggity. (DO, 2, protection ½, JJ +2)
O17	1	10	Gun TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Duo keeper	McCarthy	8
JJ(+1, ZR+) keeps as interior sellout happens. Johnson(+1) gets a good kick; Morris(-1) misses on a safety, though he does force a run-around. RPS +1.
O9	2	2	Gun trips TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	7.5	Pass	TE drag	Barner	4
This is supposed to be a rub route but neither Bredeson nor Johnson gets any contact on Barner’s defender, gotta sit down and stick a butt out gents. Barner(+1) is thus hit immediately upon catching the ball two yards downfield but is able to beef out another two yards, which is really important when it’s the seven vs the five. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, JJ +0.5)
O5	1	G	Gun TTE	1	2	2	4-3 even SAM	8.5	Run	Insert iso	Corum	5
Loveland thunks(+1) a LB out of the play. Barnhart(+0.5) gets a kickout. Corum(+2) meets a LB at one and a half yards, runs him over, and then powers through a safety to score. Yoooo.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 31-7, 12 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M19	1	10	Pistol 2TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Pass	Waggle flat	Loveland	3
RU OLB to playside covers the flat; not much else open, JJ takes what’s there. (CA, 3, protection N/A, JJ push)
M22	2	7	I-Form Big	1	3	1	4-3 under	7.5	Run	Counter A Gap	Corum	5
Michigan’s counter to their counter where they are trying to fire out a spill guy and run away from the spill defenders. Barnhart(-1) gets no impact on the guy Zinter is hitting and climbs to a LB Loveland should have as the force guys hop outside. Zinter(+0.5) turns the guy in but can’t drive him; Keegan pulls and blocks the guy inside as usual; Bredeson(+0.5) redirects and pops him. Corum cuts back and hits Zinter; pile lurches. RPS +1.
M27	3	2	Gun TTE U	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Duo	Corum	4
Nugent(+0.5) and Zinter(+0.5) fire the NT downfield a couple yards. Henderson(+0.5) does the same and comes off on a LB. Corum burrows to convert.
M31	1	10	I-Form	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Power	Corum	7
Barnhart(+1) heavy chips a DE who Henderson(+0.5) turns in; Barner then gets a second level block. Bredeson(+0.5) gets a kick; Zinter(+1) pounds a LB on his pull. Wilson(+1) gets to a safety on a crack; Corum can’t dodge the CB.
M38	2	3	I-Form	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Power	Mullings	14
Barner(+1) gets a heavy chip and then wipes a LB; Barnhart(+0.5) finishes off that DE. Keegan(+0.5) and Bredeson(+0.5) both get good kicks. Mullings(+2) hits the hole, rips through a tackle from the side, runs over a safety, and almost breaks this long.
O48	1	10	I-Form	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Power	Mullings	6
Mirror of previous play. Barner(+1) heavy chip and climb; Henderson(+0.5) finishes. Bredeson(+0.5) kickout. Zinter(+1) hammering pull. Wilson can’t get a charging S and Mullings gets tripped up.
O42	2	4	I-Form	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Power A gap	Mullings	2
Barnhart(-1) elects to entirely pass up a DT who slanted over, so Zinter is in a crappy position and DT is able to rip to the hole. Barner(-0.5) gets extended off of and his guy fights back to the gap. Barnhart doesn’t really get the second level block either because the lack of gap robs him of a blocking angle.
O40	3	2	Pistol FB twins	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Split duo	Mullings	9
M runs one of their TE post-up blocks with Barner(+0.5) delaying an end until Bredeson(+0.5) can wham him. Barner then hits a LB. Henderson(+1) blasts a guy Keegan(+0.5) has posted up and releases; Mullings(+1) runs up the back of this and then scrums for a bunch of yards.
O31	1	10	Pistol FB twins	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Split duo	Mullings	5
Henderson(-1) is doubling with Barner and gets off balance; DE chucks him past. He’s off balance and falls so some work was done; Mullings(+1) still has to cut away and regaps into a frontside crease. This plus YAC creates a decent gain.
O26	2	5	Pistol FB twins	1	2	2	4-3 under	8	Run	Split duo	Mullings	4
Keegan(+0.5) gets a chip and a climb; Henderson(+0.5) gets a yard of depth. Mullings(+0.5) burrows.
Drive Notes: EOG, 31-7.

It's over.

I mean it was a couple passes winged wide.

We're so back?

I mean?

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
East Carolina	6+	14(2)++++				5				2			91%	+20		0/0	0/0
UNLV	2	15++	1		1	1				1			95%	+12.5		0/0	1/3
Bowling Green	1	6+	1		1	1				3**	2**		61%	-3		0/0	2/2
Rutgers	3	13++(1)	3		1				1	3	1		79%	+12		0/0	3/4

(Run +/- is in the other chart; the above is solely a passing/decisions grade.)

Seems fairly back. Rutgers is 43rd in SP+ defense, which I'm going to blindly assert is better than any other opponent to date by ~40 spots, and McCarthy put up a +12 on 29 gradable events (dropbacks that aren't screens and ZR decisions).

Yes, the passing accuracy was down from the first two games—we have memory-holed BGSU, thank you—and he got big chunks on simple throws to Edwards and Loveland, inflating his stats a bit. But also:

We've placed the Morgan back shoulder catch in the Semaj Morgan bit, but you can spend a moment remembering it now. Thank you.

So yeah while it was irritating and slightly alarming to see McCarthy wing two outs well wide of his guy, something he was 100% at earlier in the year, they were exceptions on a day that was fairly close to the flamethrower of the first two weeks. Aside from those this throw to Barner was the only really vexing moment, as Barner is very covered while Wilson and Loveland are both open:

On top of that, the throw needs to be in the buttzone but clangs off the linebacker's back. I fired off a –2 for that but didn't BRX it. I dunno.

McCarthy's issues other than that were minor. The most dangerous-seeming throw was his first, an out to Loveland that's accurate but at a guy who is blanketed:

I did not consider that a turnover-worthy play since the LB would have to make something spectacular happen to intercept that. I will also vouch for this incompletion, which I think is a great throw in the circumstances:

He knows he's got that space and if Wilson doesn't switch the shoulder he's looking over I think Wilson's able to adjust to that and score.

And then…

He's got legs. He knows how to use them. It was immediately apparent what Rutgers wanted to do to slow down the Michigan ground game, and that was Ignore JJ McCarthy. On Michigan's first snap they sent a guy off the slot and a keep is wide open:

RU #4 slot LB to bottom

This strategy has worked for Rutgers forever because reads have never been on against them. This continued on Michigan's second drive, when an unblocked end hugged the last Michigan blocker on what looked like Rich Rodriguez's old "belly" play:

RU DE #17 to bottom

Belly is pretty simple: shove everyone down the LOS and then run at a conflicted DE. You can't run it without a live read, so I dinged McCarthy here.

On drive #3 Michigan finally got sick of years and years of Rutgers ignoring Michigan quarterbacks because they were Rutgers and popped McCarthy out into space:

Then when they returned to belly they got rewarded when the backside guy was like "?!?!?":

RU OLB to bottom

McCarthy also had a decisive 22-yard scramble and a couple other obviously correct keeps. It was a major reason this game against Rutgers did not devolve into The Rutgers Slog; the only thing keeping Michigan's point totals down was their possession count (7).

Run ball good?

Yes. I got some frankly silly numbers here:

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Barnhart	6	3	+3	Lewis is better, so not a blowout.
Keegan	7	3	+4	Duo half-points.
Nugent	6.5	2.5	+4	Also duo half points.
Zinter	11	1	+10	Duo full points.
Hinton	4	1	+3	Pass pro minuses not so good.
Jones	0.5		+0.5	Eh
Henderson	5.5	1	+4.5	Surprised it added up like this, but it did.
El-Hadi				DNC
Crippen				DNC
Bredeson	9		+9	!!!
Barner	9.5	0.5	+9	+1 for YAC not included.
Loveland	4.5		+4.5	It's rubbing off on Mr. Fancy Catches.
Hibner				DNP
Mullings				DNC as blocker
TOTAL	63.5	12	84%	Great googly moogly.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McCarthy	2		+2	A scramble, fast.
Orji				DNP
Tuttle				DNP
Corum	8.5	1	+7.5	Tremble, ye safeties of the Big Ten.
Edwards	0.5	6	-5.5	WTF
Mullings	4.5		+4.5	Jerome Bettis, but fast.
Stokes				DNP
TOTAL	15.5	7	+8.5	Get Edwards right and we're talking.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Johnson	1	2	-1	Missed an important crack.
Wilson	1.5		+1.5	Consistently getting his blocks.
Morris		2	-2	Won't help playing time quest.
Clemons				DNC
Morgan				DNC
Moore				DNC
TOTAL	2.5	4	-1.5	Get this right.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	32	11	74%	-6 Hinton, –3 Barnhart, –1 Henderson, –1 TEAM
RPS	17	4	+13	Guys in wrong gaps, QB can keep it now.

So, those are some outlandish numbers against a team that had come in obliterating opponents. Very bad opponents, but there's a base level of competency there, and I barely had a negative for any of the blockers. For the third straight week, Barner and Bredeson put up silly numbers; even Loveland got in some shots.

FWIW, this week the PFF numbers line up pretty closely with mine. Their rankings go Zinter, Barner, Bredeson, Barnhart, Nugent, Keegan, and then Henderson followed a long way back by Hinton. Also, PFF is grading out Bredeson and Barner amongst the top blocking TEs in the nation. Bredeson is 3, Barner 5.

These numbers don't really line up with the stats, though?

Corum rushed for 4.6 YPC and Edwards 2.2, so I get that complaint. I graded the final drive because it was mostly starters and Michigan ran over a Rutgers team that just wanted to go home, so that inflates things somewhat. But also Michigan RBs had a long of 14, which drags things down. If you hop over to the fancystats purveyors they note that Michigan's success rate of 54% is 95th percentile, and their rushing success rate was 58%. Dominating blocking without a long run adds up to about this.

And also…

Well, yeah. There was quite a gap between the two main running backs this week. Corum's basically Corum again:

Also, here's this Mike Hart-ass play:

It might be time to forget to talk about him for the rest of the season.

Unfortunately, Edwards was plain bad. He had six carries. One of them was a short-yardage dive into the line. Three of the other five were minuses. The bounce outside a set edge remained the worst on review…

…but he ran directly into unblocked players on two other plays. This duo has decent push and running up the backs of your OL is likely to result in a solid gain; instead Edwards flies into the extra hat in the box:

This is similar. It's duo; there's no obvious gap but the OL is getting good push; Edwards bounces it outside into an unblocked safety:

Like… what are we doing here?

Use the wall of friendly butts. Corum was faced with a near identical situation on an iso play and ran away from the unblocked guy into his blockers, picking up four.

Edwards's regression from the end of last year, when it seemed like he'd figured it all out, is the most disappointing thing about the first third of the schedule.

Here is the part where you advocate for Kalel Mullings to replace Edwards.

Well… no. But I am on board for Mullings 2024. Here's the replay of his near-TD, which shows you the delicate footwork to step through some traffic and then the sheer power to De'Veon Smith the Rutgers secondary:

And here's a version of the spring game scrums he keeps putting on tape:

And here he gets a DE in the backfield and smoothly regaps to pick up five:

I will remind you that Wisconsin and Notre Dame wanted Mullings as a running back. You can see why.

Speaking of usurpation: Henderson for king of tackle?

Yeah, I dunno. Maybe? Hinton had six pass pro minuses, one of which got McCarthy sacked…

…but was fine to good on the ground. Some things that look like his issues probably weren't; I ended up giving Zinter a –1 here and Hinton just –0.5 because I tend to be forgiving towards players trying to deal with guys slanting away from them:

RG #65, RT #78

That looks like a big oops –2 kind of thing from Hinton but in my charting I've usually found that when there's an offensive lineman futilely chasing someone he has no shot at usually it's someone else who made the mistake. (Offer does not apply to Kyle Kalis.) Similarly, this might look like Hinton not quite getting a block at first blush:

RT #78

But he gets blocked there when he's trying to get out, and his abortive shove is enough to get Corum the cutback, especially since he pursues. I gave him a half point.

Three minus two pass rush events, though… that's a tough look.

Meanwhile, Henderson was also fine to good on the ground. I was specifically looking for blocks of his to clip and didn't come away with much, but after the grading was done I found out that I had at least a half point for him on eight different plays and just one minus. This is a nice job of staying attached to your guy when he tries to shed:

LT #73

I did have a pass pro minus for him when he got bulled back dangerously, and given the number of pass plays during Henderson's time on the field that's not as big of a gap between Hinton and Henderson as you'd like. 

One caveat is that Henderson got the last drive, which was a cornucopia of positives against a gassed and dispirited defense.

Okay, but… it's time, right?

I mean… probably? But if you're going by my predictions/assertions about the tackle spot I've been wrong about everything.

How's Nugent doing?

So this week someone went through the UFRs and created a chart of performance in zone vs gap blocking. Hinton is the obvious takeaway here…

Here's what I've got through BG. This is just an aggregate of UFR run scores, so those caveats still apply. The first % is the %age of grading events that are positive things, and the second is the %age of + grading points out of all grading points (Brian says >2:1 is good) pic.twitter.com/yH7lVQxV8j

— i a?? the eggboi (@sassurday) September 25, 2023

…but also a couple people responded to that saying that Nugent was also struggling. I would not say that's the case. I don't grade certain blocks for a few different reasons. One: it's so basic it never gets screwed up, like a hinge block on the backside of power. Two: it's unclear whether the block is effective because something else got screwed up. Three: it's meh. That latter is actually me grading a block as a zero… and it's possible I should actually specify when someone's getting a zero as a block. But I don't.

Anyway, the upshot is that Nugent hasn't had a ton of blocks graded because the stretch stuff didn't work out enough for me to judge him much there and usually centers who aren't pulling don't get a grade on power. He's gotten duo half points here and there. I wouldn't say he's been bad; neither would I say he's been good. He's been there. This week he did get to do a lot of duo stuff and his grading saw an uptick.

All that said, this was a little concerning. Michigan's inserting a tight end to the right side of the line and Nugent's guy blows that gap up by getting penetration:

C #60

Haven't seen something like that in a long time. Currently an outlier.

So, you said Michigan took Rutgers seriously?

They did. I only charted two snaps with both Corum and Edwards; those two snaps averaged 34 yards each. This is extreme cherry-picking, since the Edwards chunk catch came when Rutgers decided not to cover him and the other one was this beauty:

One flea flicker every week.

That seems like one play.

It was not one play, it was Various Developments. The first development was the aforementioned belly. This is a delightful add to Michigan's short yardage arsenal because it looks virtually identical to their dive, which has a bunch of tight end types moving inside. The difference here is that they're trying to shove you horizontally, not vertically. Michigan had two conversions on belly in this game that 1) used JJ's legs (once as a threat, once as an actual run) and 2) would have converted easily anyway. Watch the playside DE haul ass for the pile of bodies in the middle of the field:

RU DE #17

Kalel Mullings is not getting fewer than 3 yards if an OLB is contacting him from the side at the LOS. The best short yardage plays are the dumbest and having two real no-brainers to choose from is a big improvement over one.

Michigan showed some more of their gap schemes in this game, including a twist on power that doesn't actually pull a lineman:

(Bredeson popping the playside OLB is our Block Of The Week.)

Instead you get two tight ends as your pullers. This is an excellent addition to the playbook for a few reasons. One is that Bredeson and Barner have been excellent blockers so far this year and this play is likely to bring them into action against LBs and DBs who they should have an advantage over. Another is that since it doesn't pull a lineman it has the potential to confuse reads. The backside ILB on this play does not know what he's looking at for a long time. The third is that Michigan has run a double arc read to devastating effect over the last couple years but has had to keep it in the barn most of the time because it doesn't look like anything else they run. Now it does; it looks exactly like this.

I expect to see plenty of this over the rest of the season. It fits Michigan's talent, it is a key-breaker, and it enables 40-yard JJ McCarthy TD runs if someone blocks the safety—and since Barner and Bredeson are the guys leading it out, they probably will.

The other thing that popped up again is Michigan's occasional response to opponents who play to spill power, which almost everyone does because their DTs get blown up by Michigan guards. Michigan will run power and use the second guy through to double the player who's trying to spill, carving a lane in an interior gap while the opposition linebackers wait for the play outside:

FB #44

Watch the sudden alteration in the path of both FB and RB. Rutgers has two wasted defenders outside, offsetting your double team plus a guy. Unfortunately this edition of Michigan's downblock double didn't have enough oomph so Corum doesn't jet to the secondary.

Finally… I'm not sure how I feel about this method of getting a hat on the opposition's free hitter, but it worked. Here both Hinton and Barner leave a DE at the same time, who goes over like Rick Mahorn pulled the chair on him:

RU DE #90 to top

Surely not intentional… but Harbaugh? Nah. Maybe.

And no outside zone.

Correct, but this was not a 404 tite front. Rutgers spent the game in some version of a four-man front—usually an under—and Michigan was happy enough to run power and duo at it. As long as we're talking about spilling power, one thing that never works anymore for the defense is attempting to sneak a defensive end under the first puller. Teams are doing this almost universally and every time the first guy through IDs it and deals with it:

LG #77 pulling

Michigan has this down; previous charting lives of mine often had –2s in here because Michigan would just dorf it and get a TFL on their face. This is yet another way Michigan seems to be all the way there with their bread and butter run plays in a way they aren't on zone stretch.

Any passing game wrinkles?

I don't get as into the weeds on passing game wrinkles but Michigan showed something notable in this one, which was having Roman Wilson at full blast right before the snap:

If that catches man coverage, good luck keeping up with that. Between Wilson crossing routes, Edwards existing, and the possibility of McCarthy doing this…

…I'd imagine Michigan sees a ton of zone.

Wide receiver blocking grumbles?

Michigan's receiver blocking didn't come up a ton but it did stop a promising play. Here Johnson's supposed to crack the safety but misses, forcing Barner to pick him up.

WR #6 to bottom

If Barner can kick out the cornerback who's crack replacing Edwards is off to the races.

This leads into some wider Cornelius Johnson grumbling.

I mean… I get it somewhat, as someone who advocated for Wilson to be the primary read whenever both guys are going deep. I do think the target in this game people might be grousing about is a gray area kind of play. Michigan goes play action, Wilson gets a bracket, and Johnson is one on one with a CB. He doesn't get open and it's incomplete:

WR #6

One issue is that Michigan has been running this route combo incessantly this year and has hit the dig over and over, so the CB is sitting on it. A second is that JJ appears to expect that Johnson will continue to run flat across the field and Johnson takes a step upfield, either because he's pushed or because he knows he's in man coverage and is trying to drift away from the DB to give JJ a window.

I was looking at this over and over, trying to decipher what I thought, when it occurred to me that I did this on a Johnson target last year and I don't seem to be doing this with Roman Wilson. 

Usurp! Usurp with Semaj!

I clipped the tunnel screen largely for season preview purposes because Morgan didn't do anything spectacular on it, but this remains an I Be Like Dang catch for a tiny freshman:

Four games in this is the clip that is at the top of the Guaranteed To Be In The Season Preview leaderboard. But, no, he's not going to usurp. Jim Harbaugh has two of the five best blocking TEs in America. Slot receivers can apply for a job in… uh… 2025?

Need that chart.

Yes, here.

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson	1	0/1				3	1/2	2/2	10/10
Wilson	2			3/3		3	0/3	3/3	12/12
Morris							0/2		3/3
Moore						2		1/1	1/1
Clemons									1/1
Morgan		1/1		1/1			1/1		1/1
O'Leary
Loveland	1		1/1	4/4		1		2/2	11/11
Barner	1			3/3		2			4/4
Bredeson									1/1
Hibner
Beetham
Corum									4/4
Edwards				2/2					7/7
Mullings
Hall
Stokes

Routes: Wilson +-, Johnson -.

Back to our more usual near-total dearth of difficult opportunities. Still no drops on the season, and no "tough" incompletions.

Heroes?

McCarthy back. Every blocker but especially Zinter, Bredeson, and Barner. Loveland did it both ways. Excellent gameplan.

Maybe not so heroic?

Donovan Edwards made some bad cuts. Six pass pro minuses for Hinton and run blocking a step down from his teammates.

What does it mean for Nebraska and beyond?

Hope you enjoyed your slot receiver event of the year. Jim Harbaugh has two of the top five blocking TEs in America and Colston Loveland. 2TEs is the base set. Also: that concern about replacing Schoonmaker from week one is way in the rearview. I doubt Harbaugh's ever had a 1-2-3 punch like this at TE, at least not since Stanford.

Team #TryHenderson. It's not like he's going to lose you a game so seems like it's time to try him full time and see how it works out. Hinton getting beat clean twice in this game bodes unwell.

Someone update the Donovan Edwards firmware. Y'all done dang introduced a bug.

Kalel Mullings: real. I mean, maybe. But probably.

Michigan's got depth in their playbook. More stuff is going to continue to come out, for people who were worried they spent too much time on OZ. It's Harbaugh.

JJ legs: important. "There he goes again, saying the same thing he says every time?" Am I wrong? AM I WRONG?

JJ decisions: fine. BGSU was the outlier. Here he had one bad read that was a harmless incompletion and (probably) one missed zone read.