This post has a sponsor!

If you ever wondered what happens to the historical artifacts when they renovate the Big House or Crisler, well, friend of the blog Martin Vloet gets his hands on them and turns them into collectables. Give your favorite Wolverine fan an unrivaled gift of Michigan history from Michigan Stadium Products, made from the original Michigan Stadium redwood bench seats (1927) and Crisler Arena maple hardwood floor (1967). Pick up a laser-engraved bracelet, sterling silver cufflinks or pendant, or a limited Victors Edition Michigan Stadium pen or Cazzie Russell Edition Crisler pen with a COA signed by the Michigan basketball legend. Enjoy a 10% discount on all purchases with code GOBLUE2022 through December 16th. Matched sets are still available but order quickly as some items are nearly sold out! Licensed and authenticated by the University of Michigan.

-----------------------------------

Substitution Notes: DT was 80% Smith + Jenkins, 40% Graham, 15% Grant, and the reason that adds up to >100% is lots of 5-2. Between that and Morris being out Harrell was on the field almost every snap until Okie replaced him in the 4th quarter. The distribution between Okie (27 snaps), Upshaw (26, including a handful at DT), D.Moore (22) and McGregor (22) felt even on non-situational downs. Linebacker was Barrett and Colson most of the time but Rolder got a drive and Mullings got two, coming in late when Colson got dinged. Paige only got two drives at safety—all at the expense of Moten—while R.Moore was a fixture. Sainristil came off only for 5-2s. Will Johnson got the most snaps of any CB, with almost as many for Turner and half as many for Green.

Formation Notes: Illinois used a lot of them but you've been watching Michigan since 2015 so you already know them all. Reminder that a hyphen is motion and a parenthetical means the position is covered.

[After THE JUMP: How to take it one game at two times.]

Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Trips (X) H-Jet	4-2-5	Nk Split	1 fld	Run		Split Zone	Jenkins	1	-0.59
Smith(+2) owns the RG, standing him up and crossing him, so the guy just falls at his knees while the LT jumps on his back which (Refs-1) should be clipping. That's made enough of a mess that Brown bounces to the next gap where Jenkins(+1) has set the RG up behind the LOS. Brown is going down but manages to spin on his back to stretch out for yard. Barrett(-0.5) ate center and couldn't get off.
O26	2nd	9	Gun Wk RB	4-2-5	Nk Over	1 fld	Pass	4	Hitch	Turner	7	0.37
Turner(-1, cov-1) is playing off so they hit a quick under.
O33	3rd	2	Gun Str 2TE (Y)	4-2-5	4-4 Under	1 press	Pass	6	Rollout Flood	Moten	Inc	-0.60
Late shift to put everyone to the field and roll that way. Everyone's picked up (cov+2) and DeVito has nowhere to go because McGregor(+1) ran over the covered TE and Moten(+1) shot up to force the throwaway. RPS+1 Michigan had a plan for everyone and Illinois wasted a potential threat on a covered guy.
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. 10 min 1st Q. Line drive punt rolls all the way to the 4.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O19	1st	10	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Split	1 off	Run		ZR Belly	D.Moore	2	-0.26
Army response (RPS+1). D-Mo(+1) is read, shuffles and Colson is staying outside, which induces a give that Moore closes down easily.
O21	2nd	8	Gun Wk Z-Cross	4-2-5	Nk Over	1 press	PRO	n/a	Tunnel Screen/Power GT	Colson	2	-0.31
This is reading Colson(+2) who induces the pull then flies up to shut it down.
O23	3rd	6	Gun Wk RB	4-2-5	Nk Over	0 off	Pass	5	Comeback	Johnson	Inc	-0.22
Weird amoeba blitz with guys dropping out on the edges and Moten coming gets Upshaw(-2, PR-2, RPS+1) unblocked until the RB, who shoulders him by easily. Clean pocket after all that and DeVito has time to find a comeback to his receiver. He winds up too long and then puts it short of the sticks, WR drops it anyways. Johnson(+1, cov+1) was on it if caught but Hat-2.
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. 4 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O20	1st	10	Gun 2TE Z-Orbit	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	2 bdy	PRO	n/a	Bubble/Pin & Pull	Harrell	10	0.69
Read player is Harrell(-1) but entire LB corps is frozen (RPS-2). Harrell isn't a slot receiver (or Hutchinson) but can't get anywhere near this and appears not to be in any great hurry to, so it picks up an easy first. Man, you are not the guy who can get away with dogging it. EO1Q.
O30	1st	10	Gun Wk Z-Jet	4-2-5	Nk Split	1 fld	RPO		Power GT/Jet Flow	Green	4	-0.14
Read holds Colson backside. Harrell(-1) is setting the edge and anchors correctly but is small and gets bopped out by this guard. Jenkins(-2) gets blown out by Palc, TE(Hat-1) helps superfluously so Barrett(+1) can step around into the huge gap, pop the pulling T, and funnel to Green(+0.5) and Paige(+0.5) who are waiting.
O34	2nd	6	Gun Str RB	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 fld	RPO		Duo/Hitches	McGregor	9	1.37
Refs-1 miss the LG move. Double washes out Smith(-1), McGregor(-1) also locked out by the LT. Moore comes down but Brown has a head of steam and dives for extra.
O43	1st	10	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Even	1 off	Play-Action	4	Fake Bubble	Moore	0	-1.16
Even before DeVito fakes a bubble throw Moore(-2, cov-2) is reading his eyes and flying up at the bubble. The eyes lie and the TE is now behind the defense. Throw is a bit high but not so much to excuse the guy dropping it (Hat-3). Phew.
O43	2nd	10	Gun Trips F-In	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	1 off	Run		Power GT	Barrett	4	-0.15
Again Harrell(-1) plays it right but gets kicked like Morris doesn't. Colson(+1) reads it and thwacks the pulling T's outside shoulder to funnel inside. There, Jenkins(-1) is paved by Palc and a new TE who can come off to get just a piece of Barrett, who sat backside a beat too long but throws his shoulder in. Graham(+1, tackling+1) flows from the backside and slams this down for no YAC.
O47	3rd	6	Gun Wk RB	4-2-5	Okie	2 fld	Pass	6	H-Out	Sainristil	8	2.30
Blitz threatened, brought, and M is in an obvious Cov1 with Sainristil(-1, cov-2) outleveraged inside with no chance to get to this. Pressure is picked up by max pro though Okie(+1, PR+1) got push on the LT. RPS-2 there are 3 guys in routes and there's no way to cover this.
M45	1st	10	Gun TTB H-Cross	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 off	Pass	4	Flash Screen	Moore	2	-0.41
Drop Okie, bring Sainristil, picked up, nobody close with McGregor(-1, PR-1) the most tied up. DeVito pump fakes at Williams going to block then throws the flash screen but Moore(+1, cov+2, tackling-1) isn't fooled. He misses the tackle but productively, allowing Colson(+1) to fly out and finish it.
M43	2nd	8	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Over	1 fld	Run		Power	Colson	4	-0.29
Everyone plays this right but Colson(-1) who gets held by a fake RPO read and/or man coverage on the RB instead of pulling with the G--he waits an extra beat and Palc can come off a double to pick him off. Barrett(+0.5) pops the puller and funnels, Okie(+1) whipped the TE trying to kick him out, and M has a free hitter in Moten nearby but no Colson to close the primary gap and Barrett is funneling inside like he always does. They do have a Graham(+0.5) who got moved by the double but swims off it and helps tackle. Neck Sharpies.
M39	3rd	4	Pistol TTB	4-2-5	4-3 Split	2 fld	PRO	n/a	Split Flow Counter	Barrett	3	-0.39
Weird because M is slanting and bringing Green right at this so they have two guys in the backfield and yet it still goes off. Okie(-1) overruns the RB trying to pop Williams like he's a kickout or this might be a spectacular TFL and Green has to form up instead of popping Williams or going for the QB. You'd think the crossing slot would go to the safety but Moten(-1) comes down inside while it's Barrett(+2) who hangs inside long enough to deter the give, then shoots out past the lead blocker and brings this down short of the sticks.
M36	4th	1	Gun Trips (Y)	4-2-5	4-3 Over	1 fld	RPO		Dive/Flash Screen	Graham	0	-4.29
Tempo(23). Neither edge is blocked (RPS+1) so this might stuff anyway but it's moot because Mason "God's Gift to Football" Graham(+3) crosses the C, swims past him, and collects his TFL. Replay.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 7-0. 11 min 2nd Q. /shakes head. A true freshman.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O30	1st	10	Gun Wk RB H-Zip	4-2-5	Nk Split	1 fld	Play-Action	4	PA Snag	Colson	18	1.68
Sainristil(-2) and Colson(-1, cover-2) suck way down on token PA, so that Green arrives in the flat and is like what are you doing here man? Lucky they didn't give up a huge chunk. Regular coverage and this is owned since M has help over both routes on the top but I don't want to RPS + this because they're clearly overreacting to run.
O48	1st	10	???	4-2-5	???	1 ???	RPO		Stretch/Tunnel Screen	Smith	2	-0.50
Miss the start of the play (ESPN-2) because they're talking about Frita Batido's (ESPN+2) so I have to reconstruct it from who's where. Unfortunate because it's a great play by Jenkins(+1) who whipped through the LT to chase and cut off an angle to a cutback lane, where Colson(-1) was backside of the LG who released. Colson does get around him now but Smith(+1) has to fight across the C when he had the backside gap at first. All gaps now filled, Brown shoulders into Smith.
50	2nd	8	Gun Wk RB	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 fld	Pass	4	Deep Out (Mesh)	Johnson	12	1.41
No idea why Johnson(-2, cov-2) is playing so far off. DeVito abandons mesh and throws the easy sight read for 12 yards. RPS-2 if Johnson had covered this they had two guys on Brown and nobody on the crosser underneath. No time for pressure of any kind either. Just awful, awful defense.
M38	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 press	Run		Reverse	Johnson	13	0.39
They catch Johnson(-1) blitzing and Harrell scraping (RPS-1). WJ has to see the WR crossing way earlier; the best he can do is pop the QB. Barrett(-1) doesn't see the LT head backside until too late, makes up for it with speed to maybe hold this down, the whiffs (tackling-1) to turn it into a 1st down gain. Harrell(-0.5) slowed up in pursuit or he might have been able to assist Mike.
M25	1st	10	Gun 2TE	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	2 press	Run		ZR Pin & Pull	Barrett	7	0.33
Barrett and Upshaw held by an RPO read, and Michigan is in two-high so that's 2/7 defenders they have for 9 offensive guys expended on the QB. (RPS-2). Colson(+2) almost fixes this by getting outside to blow up the TE and then eating the 2nd puller. Barrett(-1) gets blown out by the TE who was helping Palc (Hat+1) blow out Jenkins(-2). Palc then gets in a sneaky rubbin's racin' hook around a flowing Smith(+1) to keep this gap wide open. It's also wide open because Harrell(-1 close to -2) once again got bopped out by the first puller and can't retrace to be of any help. Morris appreciation at all-time highs here. Moore(+1) flies down from high to help stop this but it's already a good gain.
M18	2nd	3	Gun TTE	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	1 press	RPO		Buck GT/Slot Fade	Jenkins	3	-0.19
RPO might just be window-dressing. Also annoying that I'm not tagging up way worse holding than they flagged on Zinter and this play's an example since the TE who blocks down Colson(-1) is ripping at his shoulderpad all play. Harrell(-1) initially does a better job on this kick but is still too high and then the G just plants him upfield anyways. Jenkins(+2) has a monster GERTOFFME as Palc tries another blockdown, Barrett(+1) funneled to him. If Colson or Harrell get anything it's a stuff. Brown (Hat+0.5) falls forward and if he doesn't get the 1st it's by inches. What a great back they've got there.
M15	1st	10	???	5-2-4	???	???	Run		Belly?	Colson	4	-0.02
Miss the start of the play (ESPN-2) to look at a safety's [Honest Trailer voice] aaaaaaaabs. Brown is cutting off the open backside as Harrell is in coverage at the other hash. Grant(+0.5) has fought past a LT and dives but can't get out there. Colson(+1) chucks a TE and tackles. RPS-1 Michigan has safeties high and their DE to this side is out in coverage.
M11	2nd	6	Gun Heavy U-Cross	5-2-4	5-2 Split	1 press	Run		Split Zone	Graham	0	-0.34
Not as cool as the last one since the C steps down and the LG is watching Sainristil while trying to arm out our freshman DT, but still uber cool by Graham(+2) to rip through the arm after penetration by Jenkins(+1) on a TE forces a cutback. Graham swallows Chase Brown a yard in the backfield and chucks him backwards. Grant(-0.5) got moved out by a double so needed both DTs to either side of him. Refs-1 spot it back at the LOS to rob him of a TFL. Also LT's block is a good example of what I mean by how Illinois teaches their OL to initiate with their arms outside.
M11	3rd	6	Gun 5w	4-2-5	Nk Split	1 fld	Pass	4	Quick Out	Sainristil	5	0.04
Not as soft coverage this time and Sainristil(+1, cov+1) is there to tackle on the catch. Stunt (PR-1) got nowhere before this was out. Refs(-0.5) should spot this at 1.5 yards instead of 1 yard..it never got to the 6 but it made the 7 yard line and that usually means they spot it the next rung up.
M6	4th	1	Gun Heavy	6-2-3	Goal	n/a	Penalty		MOVE!	n/a	Pen-5	-0.44
Michigan brings out the old Don Brown MOVE! trick. It shouldn't be legal (and they've called Disconcerting Signals on it before) but it is legal and it gets the Illini to jump.
Drive Notes: FG(29). 7-3. 4 min 2nd Q. Labeling this the Soft Drive. Illinois gets the ball next at their 13 after the Corum fumble.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O13	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 fld	Run		Power	Barrett	2	-0.19
1:35, 2TO. False zone/RPO read is ignored. Jenkins(+1) stands up a double at the LOS to delay the puller and Okie(+1) beats the TE's kickout and comes inside, so the TE starts hugging. Barrett(+0.5) takes on the puller, sheds, and chases Brown's bounce outside, missing the tackle, but productively enough that Moten(+1) can come up and stop this since Johnson is tied up with a WR who's holding his dickens off (Refs-1). Lineswoman over this rules it inbounds, is overruled by the referee.
O15	2nd	8	Gun Trips RB (Z)	4-2-5	Nk Split	1 press	Run		Counter Trey	Colson	4	-0.10
1:24. Why yes I think we shall compare McGregor(+0.5)'s reaction to a kickout to Harrell today. He gets the puller and puts him upfield near the hash, which could get him edged or could be the start of a big play on the edge. We dont' find out because Colson(-0.5) hops outside deter a bounce and Brown plays chicken with him (Hat+1 for patience) to keep Colson out there until the puller arrives. McG tries to use that to rip inside for a TFL. Barrett(-1) got locked downfield by Palc who made a good play to get there but this is also holding (refs-1) as Barrett tries to rip free and is yanked back by his collar. LBs removed, Smith(+0.5) and Jenkins(+0.5) each work a gap over. Brown gets back to the new Jenkins one. So impressed with this RB. M timeout.
O19	3rd	4	Gun Wk Tight	4-2-5	Nk Even	2 off	Pass	4	Out	Johnson	4	0.78
1:17. Still don't get why Johnson(-1, cov-1) is playing so soft, except I guess this is don't get beat deep time. Out is there for the taking, taken, thrown too far upfield and the WR looks like he traps it. Spot is fine (it's where you catch it not where you come down, unless it's M at MSU), but he might have trapped it.
O23	1st	10	Gun 4w	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 off	Pass	4	Double Screen	Johnson	6	0.39
0:56. McGregor(+2) notices the LT wants to get outside of him and travels out to the RB to dissuade the first screen. Other three are stunting (RPS-2) which means Jenkins(-1) doesn't realize all the OL have gone downfield. Johnson(+2) has a TE stalking him that he shoots by. Barrett(+1) has three guys to deal with and shoots through them all to be relevant. Ill timeout.
O30	2nd	4	Gun Wk H-Orbit	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 off	Run		Dart	Smith	14(Pen-11)	-1.26
0:41, 1 TO. Good playcall by ILL as they catch M slanting and cut Smith(-1) down while sealing Jenkins and Okie. They're also holding both of them as Jenkins tries to fight back, though he probably wasn't making it in time. C releases but can't get to Johnson as Moten(+0.5) arrives to funnel to him. Lots of momentum though so WJ can only drag Brown down after another 8 yards of hanging off his waste. Hold is called, comes back. On replay it's a hold but not one they usually call because Jenkins put himself over there, so Refs+2.
O20	2nd	13	Gun Wk H-Jet	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 fld	Run		Power GT Jet read	Jenkins	t	0.08
0:26. Illinois just running the clock out but grading anyways. Okie(+1) gets the full Morris on the kickout, lead blocker can only just barely squeeze through as Jenkins(+2) burrows into a double team. Barrett(-1) got held backside by the Jet fake and Colson(-1) took two steps the wrong way after the handoff so a TE can lock out one and the other is useless. Jenkins then catches Brown as he's squeezed by Okie and holds him at the LOS until help can arrive from Moten(+1) who shoot downs, picks through traffic, and sticks, then holds up as it becomes a shoving match.
Drive Notes: EoH. 7-3. Bielema Boomhauers about the holding call, setting up a doozy of a 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol 2TE	5-2-4	5-2 Split	2 press	Run		Buck CG	Colson	-1	-0.80
Harrell(-0.5) upfield and bopped. Graham(-0.5) gets cut on the backside. It's fine because their teammates kick ass. Jenkins(+2) gets a TE, sets him up in the backfield then falls at Brown's feet as he goes by. Colson(+2) got the other TE and shot inside of him then past the lead blocker to blast Brown behind the LOS. Upshaw(+0.5) came around from behind and had a bit of waist. Smith(+0.5) had his guy stood up in the backfield. You see why frippery is so important to this offense.
O24	2nd	11	Gun TTB	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	2 off	Pass	4	TE Flat	Barrett	6	0.14
Tempo with 4w get M to jump, but ILL just checks. Smith(+1, PR+1) is coming through a double so DeVito checks down to a TE at the LOS. Barrett(+0.5, Cov-push) is there but the TE stretches at the sideline for a couple extra. Feel like 3rd and 5 is a fine outcome.
O30	3rd	5	Gun Wk	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	2 off	Play-Action	4	Hitch	Green	Inc	-0.37
Tempo(25). Again soft coverage on 3rd and medium gets the first read open and no pressure (PR-1), Green(-1, cov-1). WR (Hat-2) drops it.
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-3. 14 min 3rd Q. Illinois not doing much to dissuade the notion that Michigan shouldn't take them seriously.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O33	1st	10	Gun 4w H-Orbit	4-2-5	Nk Split	1 press	RPO		Stretch/Bubble	Barrett	11	1.06
LG releases on Barrett(-1), Smith(+1) replaces, and gets ALL the held (Refs-3). That's it that's the whole thing.
O44	1st	10	Gun Twins	5-2-4	5-2 n/a	2 off	Run		Duo	Smith	Pen+5	1.37
Tempo(21) but they sneak an OL wearing #94 on the field and officials don't allow Michigan to sub as well. And they miss a false start on the LT. And they call too many men on Michigan. And Jenkins(+1) puts a G in the backfield who jumps on his back as Kris is trying to tackle the RB. Not charting the rest of this since M's not set on the frontside. Refs-4.
O49	1st	5	Gun 2RB	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 fld	Play-Action	n/a	Split Flow	Mullings	8	-0.36
Mullings and Rolder in. M has two safeties high (RPS-2) and asking a LB to get Williams in the flat, which is too much. Mullings(-1) stays in two beats too long. Johnson(+1) sets a strong edge to hold it down. Even if that's the playcall, Moten(-1) is watching the CB way too long--Turner is being blocked, there's a slot receiver in the flat who crossed the formation, the ball's already in the air, and Moten's still getting depth.
M43	1st	10	Gun Trips Y-In	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 fld	Run		Bellly	D.Moore	9	0.91
Soft 2-high again, meaning M is outnumbered in the box, and thus has no edge. Mullings(-0.5) expends himself in a double that's moved Smith(-1) and M has Sainristil held outside by a slot Moore is deep over (RPS-1). D-Mo(-1) doesn't realize he's got to two-gap. Missing Morris lots because that's how you play like this. Rolder(+1) pops the TE (though argument he should spill it) then comes off to get a shoestring tackle. Also discussed in Sharpies.
M34	2nd	1	Gun Wk Z-Orbit	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 fld	Play-Action	n/a	Fake Bubble	Sainristil	Inc	-0.92
This time Sainristil(+2, cov+2) is all over it, using the delay to run along in this guy's chest. Ball sails, WR sparts for a flag but there's zero point zero to call there.
M34	3rd	1	Offset Twins	5-2-4	5-2 Splits	n/a	Run		Dive	Moten	1	0.46
ILL tries to do the "talk to the sideline HIKE" trick. Jenkins(+1) and Moten(+1) knife in and connect. Brown (Hat+2) is sideways and stopped a yard in the backfield, but spins on his back and stretches out to get it back to the LOS. If you really Zapruder it his left knee seems to touch down before the stretch because a TE is on it but good luck reviewing that. Also want Smith or Moore to put a final shoulder in there but do I really?
M33	1st	10	Gun Twins Z-Jet	5-2-4	5-2 Over	2 bdy	Play-Action	5	PA TE Corner	Barrett	17	0.33
First real pressure of the day (PR+1) from Upshaw(+1) who swims betwixt the RT and pulling LG…Palc notices and cleverly trips him (that's illegal but falls under rubbin's racin' if not called). The excitement means they miss a chance for a chunk on the backside as Harrell fell down chasing the jet. DeVito rolls a bit then finds a TE over Barrett(-1, cov-1) who sucked way down on the PA and doesn't get deep enough before flattening out. Colson(-2) also didn't bother to chuck this guy as he crossed him, and can't catch up after.
M16	1st	10	Offset Twins	5-2-4	404 Tite	2 fld	Pass	4	Fade	Turner	0	-0.33
Four-man rush is stymied (PR-1) so DeVito has time to pump fake. Can't tell since (ESPN-2) it's off screen but that might have held up Turner(-2, cov-2) since he was backpedaling when last seen. When seen again he's 3 yards behind his WR in the endzone. Ball overthrown (Hat-2).
M16	2nd	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	4-3 Odd	1 bdy	Run		Power GT	D.Moore	8	0.29
Eesh. Smith(-0.5) stood up by his blockdown, Jenkins gets upfield of his but can't do more than cut off the backside. D-Mo(-1) is getting washed out so he resets outside. Barrett(-2) got held backside by the fake RPO (COMMUNICATE!!!) and gets shoved down by the TE who chipped Okie on the backside (block of the year, Hat+3 to that guy). M had a S high and Sainristil out on the edge so there's nobody else to fill behind D-Mo until Moore(+0.5) comes up forces a cut into Okie(+0.5) working back. Also in Sharpies.
M8	3rd	2	Gun Wk RB	4-2-5	Nk Under	1 press	Run		Inside Zone	Colson	8	2.56
Smith(+1) beats back the C but RG gets his hands outside Colson(-1)'s shoulderpads and drags him down (Refs-2). Brown runs into that and through it because Colson can't tackle a guy while getting tackled, and M has no safety because Moore(-1) was out on the edge when he could have helped Colson, and then bounced inside when Brown popped out. FTR the M sideline got mad because an OL gave Sainristil a hard shove from behind after the play.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 10-10. 7 min 3rd Q. There is nothing about this drive that I don't hate right now. Next drive starts after the missed offsides/Anthony drop 4th and 6.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O37	1st	10	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 fld	Pass	4	Fake Bubble	Sainristil	16	1.44
Paige in. McGregor(+1) gets Palc to set up too high, he holds, no flag (Refs-1). Harrell(-1, PR-1) gets pancaked by a lone TE so there was no anvil anyways. DeVito stares down and pumps at the bubble but Sainristil(+1, cov+1) isn't fooled. He throws at the guy anyways and the WR makes a circus catch. Policy: no minus if CB's hands are inside the guy's arms, just Hat+2.
M47	1st	10	Gun Twins	5-2-4	4-3 Split	2 off	Pass	4	RB Out	Colson	10	0.56
Just cheatin their asses off now. Graham(+1, PR+1) gets through the RG who stays attached to the pads under his arms and drives him by. Upshaw is working back to contain and Palc (Refs-3) gets his hand on the shoulder and won't let him pursue for several seconds. Colson(-1, cov-1) is late getting out as Brown releases so this turns into a 1st down.
M37	1st	10	Gun Heavy	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	1 press	Run		Counter Trey	Colson	37	3.00
M blitzing Moore off the backside (RPS-3) and playing two-high for...reasons. Upshaw(-1) on the playside edge, gets bopped, tries to spin back down and gets his right arm hooked by #78 (Refs-1). Barrett(-1) read and gets to the lead TE behind the LOS but doesn't control the actual gap. Brown has tons of room because that's where Upshaw's flailing around with #78 on his back. Graham(-2) was getting moved by a double, tries to spin off and falls down--should have just kept fighting since the T releases onto Colson(-2), who reacts late, gets around Palc, then takes a bad angle and gets dusted by Brown. Turner(-1) is the last hope but gets wiped out by the other TE.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 10-17. 1 min 3rd Q. Wonder how the Big Ten feels about all this.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O43	1st	10	Gun Str Y-F	4-2-5	Nk Under	1 fld	RPO		SZ/Curls	Paige	2	-0.53
Finally a reaction to ILL as M brings Paige to the playside and slants (RPS+2), getting both Gs to release on Barrett. Paige(-1, tackling-1) has a free TFL but misses. Colson(+2) hides then shoots behind the two Gs to get outside before the RB. If Okie(-1) realizes he's there it's a monster TFL opportunity. Instead Okie overruns as the RB cuts back inside. Graham(-1) needs to stop but he overruns too. Paige gets up only to get shoved by Palc (Hat+2) who then picks off Okie. D-Mo(-1) then overruns as well. SOMEBODY please communicate or contain!!! Smith(+1) and Sainristil(+1) of course. RB cuts back again near the LOS into Okie/Colson, who maintained his side all play. EO3Q.
O45	2nd	8	Gun TTB	5-2-4	5-2 Over	1 bdy	Pass	4	Hook	Turner	Inc	-1.17
WR (Hat-1) runs the wrong route, then pushes off on Turner(+2, cov+2) who wasn't letting him get downfield and gets the WR's left arm as he's trying to catch it. One-handed catch fails, WR gets up sparting like he wasn't the main culprit.
O45	3rd	8	Gun Trips H-Cross	4-2-5	Exotic	2 press	Pass	5	Yackety Snap	Harrell	-11	-1.15
The C (Hat-3) snaps it as H crosses like it's Jet. DeVito isn't ready, he falls on it.
Drive Notes: Punt. 10-17. 14 min 4th Q. If Karma wants to take credit for the snap and Bell return I'll buy it.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun 4w H-Orbit	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 press	RPO		Stretch/Bubble	McGregor	6	0.33
McGregor(-2) gets wiped out by Palc on the backside. Cutback, Colson(+1) flashes back from the opposite hash(!) to push Brown back into a flowing Barrett.
O31	2nd	4	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 press	RPO		Duo/Curls	Barrett	1	-0.72
Tempo(30). Barrett(+2, tackling+1) says something to Jenkins(+2) and whatever it was it works as Jenkins stands up a double all play. Colson(+0.5) replaces behind Smith to force this to where Barrett waits patiently behind Jenkins to fly up and stick. MB then clamps down on the ball to prevent Brown from squiggling for YAC.
O32	3rd	3	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Nk Even	1 press	Pass	4	Tunnel Screen	Colson	4	1.32
RPS-1 as they catch M with 5 guys in short zones looking for Mesh. Frontside of OL cutblocks which gets McGregor(-1) and that's their shot at this though Colson(+1) came hard through a flexed TE to stick just past the sticks. 100,000 self-appointed refs don't understand forward progress.
O36	1st	10	Pistol TTE	5-2-4	404 Tite	2 off	Run		Duo	Smith	3	-0.41
Smith(+1) lets the backside of his double get Barrett then wins back his yard vs the single blocker. Jenkins(+2) put the frontside of his in the backfield then goes to TFL but can't because the LT has his shoulderpads (Refs-1). That still forces Brown into Smith after 1 yard. Brown (Hat+1) then forklifts the 360 pound man to fall forward for a decent gain.
O39	2nd	7	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Over	2 fld	Pass	4	Quick Hitch	Green	8	1.47
Why so soft!?? Green(-1, cov-1) is playing 10 yards off so they take the quick and free throw under him for the 1st down. RPS-1.
O47	1st	10	Pistol 2TE	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	2 press	Play-Action	4	PA TE Cross	Colson	18	1.12
Colson(-2) sucks down all the way on PA and doesn’t even see the TE who leaked out. DeVito has all day (PR-1) with a 6-man protection though Upshaw(+0.5) finally manages to disengage from the LT late. Too late, easy pass to the wide open TE, and YAC. Good news: this is Illinois's last positive EPA play. Bad news: not Michigan's last negative charted play.
M35	1st	10	Gun Wk Demi	4-2-5	Nk Split	2 off	Pass	4	Fly	Turner	Inc	-0.69
Max pro to take a shot, Turner(+1) is on it, Moore(-2, cov-1) is late getting over from Cov3 middle 3rd so Turner has to flip his leverage to give up outside. Ball overthrown, scary if you're projecting this to OSU.
M35	2nd	10	Gun 4w H-Orbit	4-2-5	404 Tite	2 press	Run		ZR Stretch/Bubble	Grant	2	-0.50
Backside M blitzes Colson and Mullings(-1) replaces without reading the play, which I think is one of those RPS things that's on the player because his coaches are simplifying things. D-Mo(+0.5) dodges a cut block and sets up shop so Mullings is free to pursue if he realizes it. Frontside, Okie(-1) gets pushed out to the numbers by the LT. With no LBs left it's feeling dangerous but Jenkins(+1) sets a new edge on the LG, Colson(+1) fights through the RG to get a piece of Brown, and then Grant(+3) fights across the C and gets his paws on the RB, one-arming him to the ground. Whoa.
M33	3rd	8	Gun 4w Trips	4-2-5	5-1 Odd	2 off	Pass	5	Flare Screen	Colson	0	-1.02
M goes Cov Zero, brings Mullings and Moten, catches a screen (RPS+1) that Colson(+1, tackling-1) almost brings down for a 4-yard loss. Brown spins out of the tackle but is delayed enough that Moore(+1) can collect him at the LOS.
M33	4th	8	Gun Trips	4-2-5	Okie	2 off	Pass	6	Scramble	Turner	2	-3.21
Claim it karma. LG who's been cheating his ass off all game misses the snap count (Hat-3), Upshaw(-0.5) is past immediately, is too slow to collect his free sack and DeVito can bail. He has a lane because Harrell(-1) got tripped up by Brown--not cut but Brown cleverly flails his legs to trip him after going down--rubbin's racin' call. If a TE realizes it's a scramble they probably get this but that guy backs up as his QB goes by. Turner(+2, tackling+2) flies down and form tackles.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 17-13. 8 min 4th Q.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Pistol Ace	5-2-4	5-3 Over	1 press	Run		Stretch	Smith	2	-0.35
3:14, M 3TOs. Weird call here. Smith(+2) blows up the C, Harrell(+1) sets a stiff edge, and Jenkins(+1) fights back across his LG to help stuff this for no gain. Brown (Hat+0.5) spins for 2 extra.
O27	2nd	8	Offset Heavy	5-2-4	Goal	0 press	Run		Counter Trey	Mullings	1	-0.50
3:05, M 2TOs. Moten(+2) blows up my Harrell is too small narrative by timing his blitz and blowing up the kickout (RPS+1). Harrell is free to blow up the lead blocker but plays it conservatively, probably worried about a bounce so situationally no negative. That does mean the puller can get to Mullings(-1) and plow him to the ground. Jenkins(+2) fights through a double like a madman, finds the ball in all this mess, and starts yanking on it so Brown has to stop churning and fight to keep it. Johnson(+1) also sees where Brown is and dives into the melee to take out his feet. Love how M is treating this like it's 4th and 2.
O28	3rd	7	Empty 5w	4-2-5	5-1 odd	0 off	Pass	4	Scramble	Barrett	Pen-10	-0.40
2:59, M 1TO. Lol Mr Whines About Pick Routes runs two pick routes, with his TE on the bottom straight-up blocking Moten. Also Mr Whines About Holding has two players doing it. The lesser gets called as Barrett(+1, PR+2) powers through the RG to flush DeVito. Smith(+1) put the C in the backfield and that guy has to grab shoulderpad to prevent a sack. QB is free but timing of the rub routes is screwed up and they're well covered (cov+2) anyways. Mullings(-2) has him contained but overruns. Jenkins(-1, tackling-1) is the other side of that and whiffs his tackle. Moore(+1) and Harrell(+1) with an all-important late shoulder get him down short of a (they think) game-winning 1st. Hold brings it back to the ILL 18.
O18	3rd	17	Gun Trips	4-2-5	RC Even	2 off	Run		ZR Stretch	Okie	4	-0.01
2:30. Refs-? start the clock on the whistle (discussion below), costing M (but ultimately Illinois) 22 seconds. Okie(+2) forces a give read and chases. C and backside T release. Smith(-1) dangerously fights backside and ohshits when he sees Okie go by but it's cool because Upshaw(+2) rips around the LG and tackles with #78 hanging around his neck. Bye bye guy. Hope Northwestern wins next week.
Drive Notes: Punt. 16-17. 2:15 4th Q. $$$$$$$$
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun 4w Trips	3-1-7	Prevent	n/a	Pass	3	RB Dumpoff	Sainristil	14	1.22
0:08, 1 TO. Scoring off on this. Sainristil overruns a bit, Harrell comes back and knocks him down before Brown can do anything freaky..needed to keep him standing 1 more second guys.
O39	1st	10	Gun 4w Trips	3-1-7	Prevent	n/a	Pass	3	Hail Mary	Johnson	Inc	-2.14
0:01, 0 TO. DeVito can only get it to the 20. Moore(+1) and Johnson(+1) outleap the WR and knock it down. WR sparts. Bert sparts again.
Drive Notes: EoG. 19-17. Somewhere, a giant wolf howls.

You gon—it don matter man it's not the old oldies all th' time man. You know what I think man? It'd like the the dang ol–I think therefore you are man.

I am not sure what are you saying?

I tell you what man, that Y2K man. That ol‘ mainframe gonna come crashin’ down on that ol‘ grid, man.

Is this supposed to be a reference to running power a lot?

Yeah man, I tell ya what, man, that dang ol’ internet, man, you just go in on there and point and click, talk about w-w-dot-w-com, mean you got the plays on there, man, just go click, click, click, click, click, it’s real easy, man.

Uh, sure. The Illinois offense certainly gave Michigan a lot of things to look at. A noncomprehensive list of items they emptied from the bucket.

• Twenty-seven different formations, including six with covered players.
• Eighteen motions in ten variations.
• Ten pre-snap shifts.
• Four different personnel groupings (more if you don't count the FB as a TE) including one with a 6th OL.
• A scripted tempo drive.
• Twelve RPOs from nine variants.
• Stretch Zone, which they've only run a few times this year.
• Dart.
• Counter Trey
• A Split Zone, Duo, and Belly package.
• Power plays that pulled two guards, one guard, the frontside guard, the backside guard and tackle, two tight ends, the center and backside tackle, the center and either guard,
• Zone reads, live and fake.
• Cut blocking
• A screen/fake screen/double screen package they debuted for this game.
• A ton and I mean a metric ton of holding.
• Some of the craftiest tripping I've seen in a long time (I did not Refs-minus those; if they catch it they catch it).

Life’s complicated man like a dang ol rubix cube man talkin bout blue red man…talkin bout dang ol get one side done dang ol messed up th’ other side.

Minus some cheap shit the above looks like the diversity you might get over six weeks of Harbaughffense and literally nothing else. Here's a comprehensive list of interesting things Michigan did.

• Played a lot of backups.
• Played cover zero when a 1st down was game over.

And after all that I think Michigan came out well in the positive. Some of the issues I thought they had live weren't really problems. Illinois had some players do the things they do. Chase Brown is a dude. Palczewski moved Michigan's tackles in ways they haven't been pushed around before.

On the other hand, Michigan needed to win a ton of clutch moments—more of them on offense but their share here—to avoid the upset. My EPA calculator has them for almost –20 points (after a +2.1 head start on that sick punt) on 4th downs between two stops, one false start, two bad punts, and Bell's return. They got zero first downs on two 4ths & 1. They also had the most repeats of plays in the 4th quarter. When your whole day is doing something kinda funky, you've nothing left for the special moments.

I did find it ironic that on their most crucial 3rd down they ran a pick play.

Dang ol’ foievapdoiufhj, man.

Is that English?

You seen that in the math numbers, man? They've got dang ol' maths that addition into subtractions and negatives under all kinds of letters, man, and lines all up in and between and up beside them, man.

What?

Them…dang…ol…maths!

Oh. Oh the chart!

Defensive Line
Player	Snaps	+	-	T	Notes
Mazi Smith	55	13	4.5	+8.5	Doubles moved him for the first time all year. Still won.
Kris Jenkins	54	20.5	7	+13.5	Ditto but fought back like a man possessed. Game MVP.
Mason Graham	25	7.5	3.5	+4	Showed up when it mattered, quiet mistakes.
Rayshaun Benny	0	0	0	-	DNP
Kenneth Grant	9	3.5	0.5	+3	That'll be make the season preview.
Michael Morris	0	0	0	-	DNP
Jaylen Harrell	45	2	8	-6	Bopped.
Eyabi Okie	27	6.5	3	+3.5	Tryout results: Still unsafe, time to start him anyways.
Taylor Upshaw	26	4	3.5	+0.5	Tryout results: Safe, slow, useful.
Derrick Moore	22	1.5	3	-1.5	Tryout results: Still just a kid.
Braiden McGregor	20	4.5	5	-0.5	Tryout results: Still not big enough.
TOTAL	283	63	38	+25	Biggest test yet.
Linebacker
Player	Snaps	+	-	T	Notes
Junior Colson	57	15.5	13.5	+2	The uUuUuUuUuUUuUusual.
Michael Barrett	62	9.5	9.5	-	Mental errors vs power, not the bad day we predicted.
Kalel Mullings	10	0	5.5	-5.5	Still overrunning everything. Useful schematically late.
Jimmy Rolder	3	1	0	+1	One drive was the bad drive, not on him.
TOTAL	132	26	28.5	-2.5	Illinois messed with them hard.
Secondary
Player	Snaps	+	-	T	Notes
DJ Turner	56	5	4	+1	Size only an issue vs the TE on the TD.
Mike Sainristil	45	5	3	+2	Calmly erased Isaiah Williams most of the day.
Will Johnson	48	6	4	+2	Made some underrated plays, why the soft coverage?
Gemon Green	28	0.5	2	-1.5	Also with the soft coverage.
Rod Moore	66	5.5	5	+0.5	They got him with that screen.
Makari Paige	10	0.5	1	-0.5	Mostly boring return.
RJ Moten	59	6.5	2	+4.5	Surprisingly fine day. Did he Pipp Paige?
Quinten Johnson	0	0	0	-	DNP
TOTAL	312	29	21	+8	Way more involved in run game this week.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Pressure	6	8	-7%	Max pro + Upshaw/Harrell = all-time low.
Coverage	13	15	-2	When they were lost they were really lost.
Tackling	4	5	-1	Good in piles, bad in backfield.
RPS	8	20	-12	One team was trying. Coach: Ben Herbert for Broyles!
Hat Tip	13	17	-4	Guys not named Chase Brown: +2/-17.

I guess this is defensible? Illinois scored 17 points in a longer game than we've been having. The drive chart might back me up.

• Back-to-back 3rd quarter touchdown drives of 67 and 63 yards.
• 59-yard field goal drive.
• Two 10-play, 44-yard drives that end on downs near midfield.
• Six-play drive at the end of the half that got killed on a hold.
• Three 3-and-outs.
• Final 9-second Hail Mary drive.

Also you get through the scoring and it's good to excellent until the metrics and then beeyyoooouuu.

Is that pass rushing metric a record low?

Turns out it's not. I found a bunch of Rich Rod-era (2010 Wisconsin, 2009 Notre Dame, 2007 Wisconsin, 2009 Wisconsin, 2010 Iowa) games versus good offensive lines that were much worse. That, uh, kind of says it right there though.

The rough day is not simply explained away with Morris's snaps going to Harrell and Upshaw, though that's a big chunk of it. If Illinois was passing they were doing it off play-action, RPO screens, or with max protection and three guys in a route. There were four times DeVito was ever in real danger: one when his LG doesn't get the snap count on 4th & 8, one where Upshaw won but got tripped, the hold on the last drive when Michigan was in Cover Zero, and this RPS+ blitz.

That was one of the rare instances when Michigan dialed up something that Illinois wasn't prepared for. Brian guessed correctly; the RPS score in this game was terrible. Much of that was because Michigan played with two guys high despite this being the last opponent you should do that with, hence all the bending.

The thing that made the least amount of sense was the soft coverage outside. All of the cornerbacks got dinged for at least one, including Turner and Sainristil. Here's Green:

#22 at the top

And here's Will Johnson:

#2 at the top

These are 2nd & longs, so the offense is expected to be looking for easy intermediate throws. Why are you just serving them up? I was marking the CBs for these because that's our system, but I use that system because usually a cornerback playing off like that correlates to one who has to. None of these guys were afraid of the Illinois WRs getting behind them, let alone DeVito actually connecting downfield. So was it just practice for Ohio State? Just weird.

The soft Cover 2 approach itself was weird—one of those times when you're wondering if they were scouting the same team we were. And it persisted well past when they should have clamped down and tried to open up a lead. This was in the red zone with a 7-point lead. Sainristil on the far left hash is held by an RPO. Inside of him are a pair of true freshmen in DE Derrick Moore and LB Jimmy Rolder. They're left to deal with a Belly run all by themselves.

Once again a simple RPO mesh ends up canceling two players who might have helped against a backside run. The irony with this one is the defense they're running is actually built to be a good answer to this sort of thing. It's called the 404 Tite, which is a defense built to stop RPOs.

The Tite has two high safeties but they're only 10 yards off the LOS so they can pounce on RPO reads immediately, freeing the slot player to play the run. That slot player is a hybrid S/LB who splits the difference between the slot receiver and the edge of the offense. The way Michigan's set up SDE Derrick Moore and MLB Jimmy Rolder have their gaps flipped, Sainristil is almost right on top of the slot receiver, and the safety is 13 or 14 yards off. Yes, you can do that with the 404—Iowa State did that all the time in 2020. The trick is having a DE who can two-gap if they try to run down the hash. Morris? Makes sense. Moore? Eh.

Leaving two guys back put a lot more on the front to handle things, and without Morris among them that became a bleed down the field as Illinois used their extra material to put players in binds. On this one Kalel Mullings is pulled between a dive to Chase Brown and speedy Isaiah Williams in the flat.

#20 the LB on the top hash

Mullings made the read easy, yes, but look at Moten, the high safety on his hash. Moten's facing WR#7, who's locked up with DJ Turner, well after the play has resolved into a slot receiver in the flat. Is that on Moten not flying down, or is his job really to stay on top of a receiver who's no more threat than his quarterback? Or are they having Moten do that because he'll be facing a dangerous WR/QB combo in a week and the front six need practice handling this sort of thing without safety help?

Hmmm.

So yes, there are ways to deal with even a power running game by playing a man down in the box. The canonical example of such a strategy—perhaps for all of college football history—is one we're all familiar with. It's the game when Michigan beat Ohio State 42-27, and those 27 were really only generated by their receivers making some insane catches in good coverage.

You wonder why they're bringing it out against Illinois, but then you really don't.

You wonder why they stuck to it when circumstances changed. This became a major problem on Illinois's 37-yard go-ahead touchdown. ESPN doesn't believe in showing more than 10 players per team on the screen at once so just know there's a WR vs CB way out to the left side and Paige (#7, the FS on the left) is not just wandering out there for no reason.

Two-high with a double over a single WR and another guy staying high over two TEs is the "ran on 2nd & 14" of this game for the defense. This is a heavy formation. There are three tight ends on the field. It's 1st and 10 in your defensive zone in a tie game and each team has maybe 3 or 4 drives left. And yet Michigan's all like "Hey, we've got 8 guys in the box for the 10 of theirs…it's fine!"

Yes, with Mike Morris in Michigan probably defeats this run anyways, since he has a habit of caving in crossers who try to kick him out. Taylor Upshaw (far right) does not cave in his kickout. He just gets kicked, then stuck, and yes held, but is a theoretically un-held Upshaw close down that gap by working back?

Yes?

Okay, probably yes, but do we want to sound like Bert right now?

No.

No! Does it excuse burning a player to hang out over a receiver who's already got a perfectly good cornerback?

No!

Absolutely not. And when they blitz the wrong side of this line to burn Rod Moore as well, do they get a touchdown on their faces like they've scored on ten other teams who didn't believe Harbaugh meant to *actually* run Counter Trey with goal line personnel from the 37 in the 2020s.

Um [re-reads the sentence]. Yes!

Can you think of a team that is not Illinois that this kind of strategy might actually be deployed against?

Yes. Do you think they'll get Morris back and be able to do it next week?

I really hope so because they *REALLY* missed Mike Morris.

Once again Michigan's setup here is softer than a Michigan State fan's feelings when you say something truthful about his football program. Illinois runs a standard Pin & Pull and reads the backside with an RPO, which holds the top LB (#23 Michael Barrett) and the top DE (#91 Taylor Upshaw). That's trouble because both safeties are hanging up high, so Michigan's already –2 in the box and has two more guys held backside checking a dude who's just handing off. They're saved because Colson makes a great play to eat two blockers and delay things until a safety can get there, and the safety gets there quickly.

But why does Michigan think they can get away with this? The answer is the kickout block.

This time it's Jaylen Harrell, who's 50 pounds lighter than Morris. Harrell got upfield and put his shoulder in but physics, man. He gets moved further out and further upfield, and has no way to get back inside when the RB respects his edge. All that space between Colson (bottom-right, engaged with TE#42) and himself is space that Morris has been taking away all this year and last, and which Hutchinson and Ojabo would also routinely steal back for the defense. They didn't just set up for kickouts, they blasted them back inside. A few teams came up with tricks to mess with them here or there, but in general it made power running against them absolute hell. Absent that cheat, Illinois power works as well as Michigan's.

Hey, man, I ain’t got no dang ol’ problem here, man… tell you what, worry a little about that end of yours, man.

No. No more Boomhauer. Go back to regular bold guy.

Why do you hate Jaylin Harrell?

See, you do that and now I have to defend him. It's not his fault he's playing a position designed for noted freak Matt Judon. It's also not his fault that Illinois was a particularly bad matchup for him, since there were very limited opportunities for him to do linebacker things, the one aspect where he's clearly ahead of his competition.

It's also not his fault that there way more mass heading his way than usual, and an Illinois gameplan that tested his change of direction. We also don't know what goes on in practice—clearly this guy is doing enough that his coaches wanted him playing ~twice as many snaps (45) as Okie (27), Upshaw (26), D.Moore (22), or McGregor (20) averaged. In translating UFR scores to takes there's always a large component that I just don't know, and there's plenty of circumstantial evidence (they play him more, they're not idiots) that the I don't know component strongly favors Harrell. "Not big and doesn't have elite change of direction" were in his recruiting profile (comp: Mario Ojemudia). That Michigan doesn't have another Ojabo ready when they lose Ojabo a year early isn't Harrell's fault; it's just a reality of a program that doesn't recruit like three programs in history.

But if you're that guy and an Illinois guard is pulling across to kick you out, you can't get it done by anchoring and putting a shoulder in. You've got to sell TF out. Harrell was anchoring and putting a shoulder in.

 

I dinged Harrell for a –1 five times for getting bopped out of his edge, and a –0.5 on another. I did not have him for any –2s, which tells you a thing about the player. The rest of his minuses were on scrambles and edge screens that tested his pass rush (non-existent in this game) and his ability to cover in space.

I actually have a soft spot for guys who aren't born with the natural ability but beat out more talented guys with superior mental aptitude and effort. Harrell seems to have won his spot on the depth chart with superior mental aptitude. But if you're that guy you do not have the luxury of ever being the guy I spot easing back on the pedal. And yet.

#32 the DE on the top

Harrell didn't get a minus on that play; he did have a couple of opportunities to earn a plus, though, and defensive line is a MAKE PLAYS position. The door should be wide open for anyone else on the depth chart to pass him. So where are those guys?

The guy closest to pushing Harrell down a spot is Eyabi Okie. After a day of Harrell getting bopped this stood out as Morris'ian.

#18 the DE on the top

This also happened:

#18 the DE on the bottom

That is…a technique I guess. But I see why the coaches are waiting to trust him when he does stuff like that AND overruns the play. Harrell getting bopped is a thing you can cover for with other guys; if Okie ever did that to a team that runs Arc/Bluff the quarterback is gone.

On the other hand, I think framing this as the safe choice versus the wild child is wildly unfair to Okie. The very alike position battle of Michigan past it compares to is not one I want to make out loud. Suffice to say one guy is a constant drip drip drip of an issue you can maybe cover for by stretching parts of your defense, and the other guy is a possibly mistake-prone occasional playmaker.

I don't know why we're waiting, because Okie is still bringing some of the Wow stuff promised by his elite, if long ago, recruiting profile. In this case what qualifies as wow stuff is ruining both sides of a zone read, which might have saved Michigan a deathly gash late:

#18 the DE on the bottom of the formation

Okie did get pushed out once on his edge-setting. A more recurrent issue was overrunning tackling opportunities, which did not really differentiate him from several young players on his team (on the same play).

The other three contenders at end are also useful but flawed at this point in their careers. Taylor Upshaw got the start with Morris out, and was Upshaw. There were multiple issues on the long TD but his block was one of them, regardless of whether he got held at the end of it.

Unfortunately his one pass rushing victory was upset when one of the guys he squeezed past casually put out his leg.

#91 DE on the right, and RG#63

We were all hoping that Upshaw's instant pressure that blew up the 4th & 8 late in the game was a sign he was picking up moves, but turns out it was just the LG not getting the snap call. If Michigan wasn't swimming in young tackles and in need of ends, I continue to assert that Upshaw would move inside and fare well. Upshaw did beat a block (a guard's) to be the anvil to Okie's afore mentioned Wow play. The Upshaw Line remains static another week.

The next guy—technically the starter this game—was Braiden McGregor. Since we're comparing kickout responses, his was…interesting.

#17 the DE on the bottom

That's a gamble, maybe too much of one with Chase Brown, and Colson decides he doesn't want to find out the result. McGregor then uses his length to fight back inside and has a shot at a TFL that he misses.

That's about where McGregor is operating in general at this point. He got wiped out pretty badly by Palc on the back side of stretch, and that shortened his day since Illinois was going to take any physical win you handed them McGregor has some pass-rush skills, he's not mistake-prone, and even if his body is still that of a freshman's his mind is that of an upperclassman. This was, in the parlance of my generation, heady.

#17 on the left edge

I still think it's about strength with him, since he missed so much development time with his senior year injury. Running over a tight end isn't an issue, but he can't stand up to tackles, let alone doubles, at this point in his career. Think of him as a redshirt freshman.

Derrick Moore, the true freshman, is the most Morris-shaped of the non-Morris options, but also the most likely to commit a true freshman error, like leaving his gap because he's getting washed out, overrunning a guy in space, or not realizing when he's got to work back across his blocker because they're going belly.

#8 the DE on the left

He'll be Morris one day. Not this Saturday. We need Morris to be Morris this Saturday.

Can we talk about a different true freshman on the line?

Oh yes. Hello Mr. Kenneth Grant.

#78 the nose

That man is certainly *different.* At first I thought it was surprising to see Grant out there in such a crucial situation when Michigan has been getting strong play from Benny, not to mention Rooks and Goode. I mean just look at the game state above. Illinois is up by 4, in the 4th quarter, in Michigan territory, and one good run away from field goal territory. Illinois has to have seen it too because they got this stretch playcall from the sideline, and stretch is THE PLAY that freshman DTs screw up all the time. But Grant's arms are so long the center can't even get his hands on the shoulderpads his coaches are teaching him to grab first. The only yard given up is Grant extending those arms to remain in control of the situation. And then he gets those feet moving and swallows up Chase friggin' Brown, ultimately running him sideways and chucking him down one-handed. Even the Illinois bench is stunned. Not that anyone could see it because I had it buried under three shirt collars and one extremely zipped jacket at the time, but my mouth wouldn't close. Day-um.

Uhm, wow. Yeah. So I meant the other freshman DT?

Oh right, one sometimes forgets that Mason Graham isn't a 5th year senior with a 3rd round grade. There were two but I know you want the stuffs.

The stuffs!

Stuff 1.

#55 topmost of the 3 DTs

His blocker sorta has his attention elsewhere but that is a very bad idea. The patience is what stuck out to me here. He doesn't hop in the backfield immediately, which might scare the RB into a successful burrow. No he waits like a predator, then springs when his prey has no escape. This drive got to 4th & 1 then kicked a FG on 4th & 6, by the way, so this play alone might have been the margin of victory.

The other stuff was on an actual 4th & 1.

#55 the DT to the right of the hash mark

Yeah, That's the stuff.

It's the foot speed to get around that center. The coordination to swim by him. The size. [Looks to heaven]. Thank you! Graham was a constant nuisance to their guards and showed an adult presence at times, like how quickly he recognizes when it's time to flow down the line, and how quickly he can do so.

Graham did have a freshman moment, on the 37-yard TD when he was the blockdown, had his TE pretty much where he needed him, tried to be a hero by spinning off, and fell down. It didn't end up mattering because Upshaw's gap was wider, but before the spin-off he got moved down by Palc like everybody else. Palc would be a plus run blocker in the NFL right now, probably. Mason Graham, the true freshman DT, is not yet ready for the NFL. Probably.

On the podcast you guys said the other DTs struggled against the Illini line (Illine? Illiline? Illinine?) more than other opponents, but those scores look like another standard paving.

You'll note there are a few more negatives than usual beside the gaudy positive numbers. Most of that damage was courtesy of Big Palc, who gave Kris Jenkins the business like he was a 240-pound freshman again.

#94 DT at the bottom

I feared that would be the whole game. I should not have. Jenkins turned it around immediately (literally the next play) and emphatically.

#94 the bottom DT

Down the stretch he was a monster. I don't know what Barrett said to Jenkins here but it appears they read Duo was coming and Jenkins decided here and now that this double wasn't going anywhere.

#94 DT on the top

I had him for six +2s in this game. Most were burrowing into doubles and making the stop on his own, no matter how much traffic came his way. This was my favorite because Jenkins looks like a man convinced if he gives up a yard on 2nd & 13 with 27 seconds left in the 1st half it's the game.

#94 top DT

That was right after Michigan lost Corum, and 7 points when Corum was subsequently ruled for nailed for fumbling because of being injured, and then Illinois was hit with a hold to wipe out a run that got them near midfield. The vibes were not great at that moment. Jenkins's play was inspired. He also got to spend about half the game as basically a 3-4 SDE, which meant drawing tight ends. That went very badly for the tight ends. And he was resetting the line of scrimmage—yes even against Big Palc—all day. Sometimes UFR reveals a game MVP you didn't notice live. I would like to retroactively hand this one to Jenkins.

Smith also had an active day, as one does when one is the starting nose facing a team that likes to run between the tackles. Early in the game the Illinois OL were put on notice that they don't have the luxury of moving on to the linebackers as quickly as they'd like, because the guy left singled on Mazi Smith is getting put in the backfield.

#58 the NT

Their most effective strategy for dealing with Smith this game was to get away with blatant holding. They did find a way to take advantage of Smith's off-the-line setup on passing downs by blocking down, which I thought was a clever, very Harbaugh-ian response. They also surprised him once with a cut block, though subsequent tries ended in failure.

Illinois doubles were able to move him more often than usual, and he couldn't really blame Big Palc this time. The thing Smith does vs doubles is he will give up yards to stay attached to a double as long as he can, which gives his linebacker a chance to make a play. That style doesn't mesh great with Mullings, a 100% Don Brown-style linebacker who's looking to bury his face in the first guard who looks like he needs it.

#58 the nose and #20 the LB behind him

If you're gonna play linebacker hide and seek you need your linebacker to seek. This play is discussed in the RPS section above because the gap it hits is not on Mullings, but there's a version of this defense where Smith has the frontside gap controlled well enough that the WLB is free to go off-script and show up backside.

I think that was a linebacker segue.

Sure, since we're already 75% through the Mullings discussion. Michigan said Junior Colson was dinged up late in the game but Mullings was rotating onto the field in the 3rd and 4th quarters with or without Colson. I think the coaches have mostly acquiesced to the idea that Mullings isn't going to be reading complicated offensive cues like a basketball point guard (weekly reminder that linebacker is super hard!).

To go back to the Grant play, it's telling that Michigan trusts Mullings—they've got to be seeing the same things I am—in that situation. But it's also telling that they have a linebacker blitz on. Colson (LB at the bottom) is shooting a frontside gap, and Mullings is given a backside gap that he babysits even after the TE throws himself at the feet of a not-having-it Derrick Moore:

#20 the LB on the hash

A linebacking grad student would understand that's on opportunity for exploring other research avenues. Mullings just completes the assignment—let nothing through the C gap—and hands it in.

To go meta for a second, I grade that as a –1 because if they're giving you that simple of an assignment it's a sacrifice. Then I issue a weekly linebacking is hard caveat. This system works for me in the grander scheme, and works against Mullings in particular because he's a particular kind of player (IE a one-read, agile, high-acceleration thumper) that Don Brown was able to make use of because of the way he designed his defense, and which teams that hang back in Cover 2 a lot will usually pass on. Like Harrell, the situation that put Mullings 3rd on the depth chart isn't his fault. Joey Velazquez and Jaydon Hood are behind him. Josh Ross (made Ravens roster, injured) and Cam McGrone (Patriots practice squad) left school early. Osman Savage, Jordan Anthony, and Charles Thomas seem to have washed out of football. William Mohan was dismissed from Tennessee. Cornell Wheeler is a backup at Kansas. If Michigan still had one or two hits or holds from that list, Mullings would probably be a running back.

It's also not Mullings who chose to run a two-high defense against RPO-heavy power running outfit Illinois. Yes, he makes this read way too easy. Yes, Junior Colson or Mike Barrett might have the speed to catch an Isaiah Williams in the flat if they set up a few feet outside the hash during the mesh point. But that falls under the category of asking an extraordinary player to make a play so you can use your safety on something else.

…when you're playing Illinois. That's a setup for discussing the actual LB starters. Colson had another Mouton-esque day of blunders and plays. The 23 plays where he got some kind of grade is a record for my time at UFR—as with the DL the way Illinois plays involves a lot of defenders from the box being involved in a lot of plays.

I've been bunching the Colson clips into bad and good, which doesn't truly capture how streaky he can be. Let's go over his day chronologically instead this time. We start with a tunnel screen RPO where he's the guy being read but still makes the play.

#25 the bottom LB who moves out into the slot

That's a +2. Colson then beats a puller to the gap on power (+1), then flies out to the edge to end another WR screen (+1). So they start messing with him and he's late to a power play (-1), sucks down on play-action (-1), and gets stuck backside of a releasing G (-1). Illinois runs an RPO that reads Barrett and catches Michigan in another soft two-high and Harrell giving up a big lane, and Colson(+2) slams it shut, stringing Brown out until safety help can arrive.

#25 the LB on the bottom

Next play Colson gets blocked down by a TE(-1), but chucks the same TE (+1) when they try it again. He gets a –0.5 for covering a McGregor gamble then biting first on a game of chicken with Chase Brown, a –1 for going too far over with a jet fake, and another +2 for shooting through that downblocking TE again to ruin a Pin & Pull that Jenkins is also making a hash of.

#25 the LB on top

Colson then promptly loses those two points on a coverage bust where he lets a TE cross him without a reroute, and then can't catch up.

#25 the LB on the left

I gave Colson a probably unfair –1 for getting tackled on the ensuing touchdown because he did contact Brown. If that was tough, just a –1 for a 10-yard pass when Colson is covering grass may have been too light, and a –2 for getting hung up backside and then scorched by Brown on the edge may have also been kind.

#25 the LB on the left

I thought Colson was the guy primarily responsible (+2) for what this almost major TFL could have been:

#25 LB on the top

I was tempted to give more than +1 when Colson flew back from the opposite hash to limit the damage on a cutback that McGregor gave up vs Stretch, and more than +0.5 for rocking an OL back when the guy came off a Smith double too soon. We end with a +1 for shooting through that TE's downblock again, a –2 for sucking all the way down on play-action then losing a TE who crossed behind him, a +1 for his blitz on the Grant play that almost gets Brown down in the backfield, and a final +1 that was really the sum of a +3/–2 when he read a screen, had Brown in the backfield for a 4-yard loss, then lost him, but only after delaying long enough for Moore to make a play at the line of scrimmage.

This has been an afternoon with Junior Colson. Tune in next week when he finally drives yours truly, his coaches, and Ohio State equally insane.

I'm not going to do the same thing with a similarly active day from Barrett. The negative stuff from him was mostly a combination of getting held on the backside by #SpeedinSpace (or fake #SpeedinSpace):

#23 the LB on the top

Like Colson, Barrett was money at the hybrid space player stuff when they tried him in space. This is the same thing they did to Mullings above when I thought Moten should have come down. With Barrett, Michigan could get away with it:

#23 the LB on the bottom

susceptible to play-action. He was more susceptible getting held after eating OL, or getting blasted to the ground by a great big tight end. I had a hard time grading Barrett's work versus pullers because he was always funneling inside, but then the one time they tested him on the shoulder he attacked they got outside of him. When he funneled productively it was a +1. Barrett remains Michigan's best (only, with Morris out) pass rushing threat. That hold he drew and this duo he predicted pre-snap were key plays that contributed to the 4th quarter comeback:

#23 the LB on top

Good player, bad matchup from a physicality standpoint, and held up better than I thought he would. I should have stopped talking about Barrett like he's 220 weeks ago. A positive day vs. a power outfit means we can put that talk to bed for good. He's never going to be a thunkin', fullback-mauling 260-pound Jarrett Irons, but Barrett's a good 230-pound modern LB, not a hybrid playing LB anymore.

You mentioned Moten. You also scored him in the positive?

I didn't even capture the late 4th quarter play where he blitzed in and set a power edge, but that was a +2 event in a situation where he was going to get a grade regardless. He got two more opportunities to blitz and paid them off—that's a positive part of his game. Safeties who are doing their usual jobs usually come in for silent days. Moten picked up negatives (see above) for doing his job because at some point even the insane playcall has to be countermanded by what's in front of you. This wasn't always the case but Moten is still a bit lost in space when put on the move.

Moore had a bad day (for him), though his big mistake went unpunished.

That's a gotchya play that picked on his aggressiveness, and wasn't going to happen again. I also gave Moore a –2 for not getting over on a corner route that DeVito overthrew. That was in Cover 3 situation so Moore had a lot of ground to cover, and makes me a little nervous for Ohio State. But only a little—maybe his reaction time to a bomb won't be the same for CJ Stroud, right? Moore remains very good at flashing down from on high and picking through traffic to end things at the Kovacs line. When he covered for Colson's missed tackle on an almost-huge TFL it was really just paying Colson back for doing the same earlier:

#19 the safety on the bottom

Paige was back but gets an incomplete. His rotations were more like someone relegated to 2nd string behind Moten, but he also hopped around after a couple of plays, suggesting his 10 snaps were really just a little reintroduction to shake off the rust.

And the cornerbacks?

Not too involved outside of the weird soft coverage they all partook in. Turner had the all-important 4th and 8 tackle and an excellent PBU. Sainristil got hit with a catch in good coverage but broke up two more, and refused to be fooled on those fake bubbles. He bit on early play-action then mostly stayed out of the box.

As for Johnson, he's playing starter's snaps now so I think he's going to get the starter spot on the FFFF chart. That meant he got hit the most often (thrice) with those soft throws that are probably more on the coaches. He's still a true freshman who wants to chase things instead of hanging out backside in case of a reverse.

#2 CB on the top

Johnson is starting to have the playmaker come out. The Moten play ended when WJ stuck found Brown in a pile of humanity and dove under it to get the RB's legs and prevent a fall for YAC. And part of the reason they have him backing out has to be because he can accelerate so quickly. Look how well this screen is set up when it's thrown…

CB #2 on the top

And then look what happens:

We are in for a wicked fun next few years. Please backload his NIL deals as much as possible.

Did Bielema have a point about the officials?

I didn't Refs+ the "MOVE!" play (the Don Brown trick where a LB yells "MOVE!" and the DL shifts to induce a false start) because it's legal to give your defensive line shift signals. But it feels like it should not be legal.

Illinois fans have a right to be mad about that the way we are mad about reviewing Colson's fumble. Is it technically correct? Yes. Spiritually, it feels fundamentally unfair to be punishing players for not being robots.

I agreed with Bielema that given how they were calling the game this play was called back for holding at the end of the half should not have been flagged.

#78 the LG

The rules say hands outside and impeding a defender is holding, but they also say a receiver fending off press coverage is OPI and it's never called that way. If they called it on LT #54 you could call it an immaterial but correct call; putting it on LG #78 was what got Bielema sparting at the refs at halftime. And it worked. This one was not called holding on the 2nd drive of the 2nd half:

#54 the LT

Four minutes and eight plays later Illinois got a touchdown on this drive; if they hadn't called the other they were likely to get a field goal at best. If this was the makeup call for the other, Illinois got the better.

The thing is the makeup calls kept coming for an entire quarter. The next play Illinois substituted, Michigan wasn't given the opportunity to change, and got hit with a too-many-men penalty. Also the left tackle jumped.

The touchdown at the end of that drive was just Colson getting tackled by the shoulderpads. All three plays of the next touchdown drive had material uncalled penalties on the same edge. This one they usually let go but nerfed a rare pass rush win.

This one was pretty bad because Upshaw was fighting to disengage for several seconds.

And this one helped create the gap that led to the touchdown.

Is this a conspiracy against Michigan? No, it's just a Big Ten game. I'm not doing the Michigan offense, but I imagine you could find three stills on that side too.

I bet you a dollar however that they flag at least one of these if Bielema isn't making a scene at the half. That's a good job of manipulating Danny Cannon, who's always been a good mark for underdogs, and I don't fault Bielema for helping his team. Continuing to spart about it, and the announcers feeding it by trying to make a case for a two-loss SEC team in the playoffs over a 1-loss Ohio State after this Saturday, are what bother me, because people pay attention when figures of authority tell them what they want to hear. Illinois fans did get hosed a few times versus MSU and Purdue. Their team also got two free touchdown drives against Michigan. Feeding fake grievances is how you get fanbases like that of my beloved Red Wings, for whom people literally wore tinfoil hats to games in the late 2000s. One toxic-ass Michigan State in the conference is enough; please don't create another.

Why didn't the clock stop after the holding on the last drive?

I am still trying to get clarification. The relevant rule is an interpretation ("Unfair Clock Tactics") of Rule 3-3-4. The example the NCAA provides seems to suggest Michigan should have had the option to start the clock on the snap (blue highlight):

If this is the correct ruling it might be because it was too early in the game. In our scenario Illinois starts that 3rd & 7 with 2:59 on the clock, and DeVito is tackled in the field of play at 2:52. The referee starts the game clock on his signal and Illinois runs off 22 seconds, snapping the ball at 2:30. The notable difference: all of this takes place with more than 2 minutes left, whereas the NCAA's example starts at 1:47. I can't find where it says this is the cutoff for stopping the clock or even if there is one—it may also be on the discretion of the referee. Rules experts please let me know in the comments if you know.

Anything else you have to get off your chest?

Fox has made me into such a production snob. Now that I know for a fact they have camera angles that show 22 players, split screen replays, and wipes that don't take up the middle of the screen, I expect entire football games to be broadcast and announcers who are infectiously interested in the game. To go back to pore-o-vision and Todd Blackledge/Sean McDonough saying "look at this blocking" when they can't even name it would have been rough even without ESPN's company mandate to constantly trash any Big Ten title conten…

…was that Frita Batidos?

What does it mean for THE GAME THAT IS REALLY THE END OF THE EARTH AND EVERYTHING WE KNOW FOR A THOUSAND YEARS AND ALSO A FOOTBALL GAME?

Michigan saved everything for it. Illinois was definitely, 100%, no-question-about-it overlooked. They sat back in Cover 2 versus a power running team and a QB who can't throw downfield just to practice it. Makari Paige came off the field after a drive. Mike Morris was held out. A true freshman DE was asked to two-gap an edge just like Mike Morris with a true freshman linebacker behind him. Kenneth Grant, the 6th string true freshman DT, was at nose in critical situations. Will Johnson got the most snaps of any cornerback.

They saved the correct response to Illinois and Only Illinois for exactly one drive, pulverized them on that drive, then went down the field and kicked a field goal. To the degree that any team can ever be accused of taking it greater than one game at a time, Michigan did that with Illinois. And won anyways.

Okie should start. I know Harrell's the favorite of someone up at division and my guess is it's because he does what he's asked and doesn't generate -2s. The -1s add up to the same thing. This Saturday's going to be the real deal. What they're seeing can't be THAT different from my charting. Take the risk.

Mike Morris please save our pass rush. If someone needs an extra podcast hot take say you'd rather Morris be back at 100% for The Game than Corum. A combination of Illinois's max protections, Michigan saving all of its interesting pressures for next week, and most of all Harrell and Upshaw on the edges made for the worst pass-rushing day since the GERG years.

Kris Jenkins is our best DT would be a good podcast hot take. It's probably not true because Smith gets more doubles and stays on the field for passing downs while Jenkins comes off. But Jenkins got just as many doubles from Illinois, and dealt with far more Palczewski, as Mazi. I've lost track of the times Jenkins outscored his counterpart. He's a fighter. A playmaker. If he keeps it up this week I'm throwing a shield down and you can't stop me. And I'm only saying that with 50% of the hot take voice.

[Tom Hanks shaking voice] You're still…sucking down…on play-action…that's something…I'd like you to fix…this week… Colson and to a lesser degree Barrett are excused for thinking Illinois run action was deserving of their undivided attention. It's still been an issue all season, and I would like the slider set all the way to pass for the next opponent, k thx.

Mason Graham is God's gift to football. Daaaayum and DAAAAAyum. But I get why people say this was meant for Grant.

Also that other freshman. Despite all odds (and only with an assist from MSU's criminality) Will Johnson is in fact starting by season's end. Guessing Green will get the technical nod this week, but Johnson's a max participant in a three-headed CB group now.

Welcome back, Gus and Klatt. I promise to never ever make a negative comment about getting the Big Noon Game ever again.