Formation Notes: UGA plays with a “Jack”—a small DE that I counted as a LB even though he sets up on the line, like below. The offensive formation here is what we call “Fritz.”

This from UGA is “Nickel Odd”—it’s like “Split” but with the DT at a perfect 0 technique. On Michigan’s side, Erick All’s split is what I’ve been calling “demi.”

Substitution Notes: Once again trueblueintexas has us covered. McCarthy rotated in until McNamara went on tilt and JJ finished the game, which works out to 46% McCarthy. Haskins got the start but the other two RBs got more run. All got most of the TE work as Michigan used more spread sets, which got Sainristil on the field more than usual and plenty of work for Henning. Andrel Anthony got on the field after but more often than Daylen Baldwin.

Hat: Instead of new “WRDIS” acronyms each week, from now on when a play didn’t work because the other team MADE PLAYS we’re going to recognize that with a tip of the hat, shortened to “Hat.” Hate hat.

Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Fritz	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	2	Penalty	7	False Start	Vastardis	(-5)	-0.74
Vastardis(-1).
M20	1st	15	Empty 12	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	2	Pass	7	Scramble	McNamara	18	1.87
Credit to Zinter(+1) and Vastardis(+1) who cleared out the DTs after Keegan(-1p) got moved out by Jones. McNamara(+2) takes off and adds a dive for the first and extra. (SCR, n/a, Prot 1/2, Keegan-1, McNamara+2)
M38	1st	10	Fritz	3-4-4	4-3 Over	1	Play-Action	8	Flea Flicker	Haskins	5	0.11
Probably what they meant to run on the first play. Both TEs as FB wings and Jones at TE. It also appears the penalty let UGA scout what was going on because the FS is over the deep post to All it's supposed to target (RPS-1). Cade still has room to zing that but instead dumps it to Haskins(+1) who gets five yards himself. No QB neg. (TA, 3, Prot 1/1)
M43	2nd	5	Offset Twins	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	1	Run	8	Split Zone	Edwards	10	1.23
All(+1) creates this by submarining the DE who's supposed to be coming inside him. Hayes(+1) gets Davis sealed and moved, and Edwards(+0.5) runs through a safety for a few extra.
O47	1st	10	Pistol FB Y Flex	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	2	Pass	7	Flare Screen	Edwards	3	-0.35
Tempo(27) Try to edge Nakobe Dean and it doesn't work out for them. All(+1) gets a great thunk on the CB to create space and Schoonmaker(+0.5) got the playside ILB upfield but Dean gets out there rapidly. Tip of the Hat-1, RPS-1 because Dean set playside of Edwards anticipating this.
O44	2nd	7	Gun Wk Z-Orbit	3-3-5	Nk Under	2	RPO	7	Stretch/Bubble	Haskins	3	-0.38
Looks good at first because Zinter(+2) reached the BS DT and went down. Unfortunately Stueber(-1) can't get the same cut on the backside DE who's slanting inside, and Haskins(-1) decides to try the gap Dean has clean because Keegan and Vastardis couldn't scoop Carter, instead of trying to get inside the guy Stueber couldn't get down. McNamara(-2, RPO-, RPS+1) had the bubble wide open because the Nk was coming inside to replace the slanting DE.
O41	3rd	4	Empty Trips Bunch	3-3-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	TE Leak	Schoonmaker	Inc	-1.10
OL picks up a twist and Cade has all day to find his TE leaking for a first down (RPS+1) but his throw is batted at the line and that throws off Schoonmaker(-1c) who can't adjust to it. (BA, 2, Prot 2/2, McNamara-1)
O41	4th	4	Empty 11	3-3-5	Nk Split	1	Pass	7	TE Out	All	Inc	-3.79
Four-man pressure is picked up but Keegan(-1p) is moved back by the blitzing WLB and that speeds Cade up. He puts it just outside All's radius. (IN, 1, Prot 1/2, Keegan-1, McNamara-1)
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 0-7. 8 min 1st Q. I hate how many "That's the downside of Cade" plays there were this drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol Ace (Y)	3-4-4	3-4 Over	2	Run	5	Arc Duo	Haskins	4	-0.11
Hate how prepared UGA is for us. McCarthy(read+) has an impossible read on the EMLOS because UGA has two guys aligned outside, two-gaps the Y with one and the other is 2020 #1 overall recruit Nolan Smith shuffling off a very long edge. RPS-1: this is a read of a guy who can't possibly get to the RB. Haskins gets Dean to bite backside then bounces, which would be a +1 if he can wait for his blocking to develop. There Honigford(+0.5) has put his guy inside and All(+1) turned Smith's own late crash against him. But HH is trying to squeeze between those two instead of waiting for All. A little patience and he's bouncing into the clear. He does tumble forward so he's a net zero. Neck Sharpies.
M29	2nd	6	Pistol Str	3-4-4	Nk Over	2	Run	6	ZR Counter CT	Haskins	1	-0.54
McCarthy(read+) traps Smith outside but Vastardis(-2), the lead puller, gets annihilated by Travon Walker (Hat-2) and Stueber(-1), the second puller, gets distracted by that and completely whiffs on Tindall. RPS+1 this play would have worked if UGA's playmakers didn't wreck it.
M30	3rd	5	Gun Str Bunch	3-4-4	Nk Wide	1	Pass	7	WR Out	Baldwin	6	1.59
UGA has Smith aligned outside the Nk, brings all six. Hayes(-1p) is worried about the WLB and is way too light on Walker when he comes back inside so Cade has to back-foot this. He does with mustard where Baldwin(+1 route) can pick up the 1st and extra. QB1 moment. (DO+, 3, Prot 2/3, Hayes-1, McNamara+2)
M36	1st	10	Offset FB Str	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	2	Play-Action	7	Sack	McNamara	-6	-1.78
Another moment where a great QB gets yards and an okay one does not. CJ gets a tiny bit of separation on a dig with the FS still five yards over vs a 5-man pressure. He pumps at it, tries to duck out of there, then the OLB comes under the puller, Keegan(-1p) and that's a sack. (TA, n/a, Prot 2/3, Keegan-1, McNamara-1)
M30	2nd	16	Gun Wk	3-4-4	Nk Wide	2	Pass	6	RB Wheel	Haskins	Inc	-0.26
ILB comes down late after HH shifts sides. Wheel is open for daaaaaaays if completed (RPS+2) but nobody adjusts at the OL when All points out the extra blitzer and Cade can't get it over that dude (BA, 0, Prot 0/1, TEAM-1, McNamara-1)
M30	3rd	16	Empty 11	3-4-4	Nk Wide	2	Pass	5	Flare Screen	Corum	-2	-0.15
You knew it was over when. Michigan gets man coverage on Corum vs a LB and tries to edge Devin Bush, who in this case is Nakobe Dean. It does not work out. RPS+1, Hat-3. (CA-screen, 3, Prot n/a)
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-14. 1 min 1st Q. UGA talent is showing out, Michigan isn't playing up.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Gun Wk H-Orbit	3-3-5	Nk Over	2	RPO	6	Stretch/Flare	Corum	-1	-0.80
McNamara(RPO-) reads the WLB and keeps him back but doesn't see the CB was blitzing. Jones (Hat-3) lets Keegan go around him then chases Corum down from behind. Le sigh.
M24	2nd	11	Offset Trips	3-3-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	Curl	Sainristil	10	0.78
UGA rushing three with a late LB. Cade sees that guy and fires on time to Sainristil(+1y) who spins through a couple of tacklers to get close to the first. For those who couldn't tell from the broadcast bc ESPN didn't replay: yes his elbow was down. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
M34	3rd	1	Offset Heavy	3-5-3	4-4 Over	1	Run	9	Dive	Haskins	4	1.15
Zinter(+1) moves out Wyatt and Schoonmaker(+0.5) gets enough of the extra OLB to make a crease, then Haskins(+1) gets his 2 extra.
M38	1st	10	Pistol Trips H-Jet	3-3-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	8	Arc H Keeper	McCarthy	1	-0.89
Nobody blocks the BS DT while McCarthy(read+) reads the OLB so the keep is the only play. It would work against most guys probably but that's #1 player in his class Nolan Smith (Hat-1) who shuffles and McCarthy(+1) can only get back to the LOS. Fake read to get JJ outside or did Zinter(-2) not pick up the DT? Think it's the latter.
M39	2nd	9	Gun Wk Y Demi	3-3-5	4-3 Under	1	Pass	7	Fly	Wilson	42	3.24
Here's how to get them. Cade under pressure because Keegan(-1p) didn't get depth when his DT stunted and poor Hayes can only get one. Wilson(+2 route) gets behind the CB playing press and builds a few steps. Cade takes a shot, lays it in. Gorgeous. (DO+, 2, Prot 1/2, Keegan-1, McNamara+3)
O19	1st	10	Offset Wk Tight	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	2	Pass	7	Fake End Around	McNamara	-8	-1.25
Gattis tries scissors, Kirby Smart(RPS-2) throws rock, and blitzes this to death. M fakes the dive to Haskins, fakes the end around to Henning (which is there) and wants to get it to CJ on a double move. Instead Cade gets eaten by Dean blitzing around the edge. Hate that this blitz is a Don Down Special. (PR, n/a, Prot 0/2, TEAM-2)
O27	2nd	18	Offset Trips (H)	3-3-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	7	Flare Screen	McNamara	2	-0.48
M has Wilson covered then run him on a fake tunnel route which gets the UGA safety to bite but Cade wants the deep ball to Sainristil and stares that down as All(+1) picks up Dean's blitz. Cade decides that won't last and he's out of time, escapes and gets a couple of yards as Edwards sits wide open. (TAx, n/a, Prot 2/2, McNamara-2)
O25	3rd	16	Empty 12	3-3-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	5	TE Out	All	7	0.49
GUAK. There's a play to be made to Schoonmaker who's the rub on this route but this is enough to make a difference in the FG try on 3rd and 16 so okay. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1)
Drive Notes: FG(36). 3-17. 7 min 2nd Q. Got out-coached into a FG here.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Offset 4w F-In	3-4-4	Nk Under	1	Run	7	Split Zone	Haskins	1	-0.59
UGA playing the FS at 6 yards and adding him to the run fit so when HH bounces outside there's a free tackler waiting. He wants the A gap once Vastardis clears because Keegan(+1) got movement on Davis, but the other DT fights inside Zinter(-1). DE also spills inside Stueber(-0.5) and then the bounce. RPS-1.
M26	2nd	9	Offset Wk Tight	3-4-4	4-3 Over	2	Pass	7	Flare Screen	Henning	1	-0.34
Henning goes in motion and Haskins is leading. Schoonmaker(-1) can't get to Dean (Hat-1) who corrals it as the CB shucks Wilson(-0.5)
M27	3rd	8	Gun Str Y Demi	2-4-5	Nk Odd	2	Pass	6	Sack	McNamara	0	-0.22
UGA brings the house, Haskins(-1p) is watching Dean and doesn't see the other LB twist. Stueber(-1) loses to Smith and that's all she wrote. (PR, n/a, Prot 1/3, Stueber-1, Haskins-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 3-20. 2 min 2nd Q. Getting overwhelmed.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M49	1st	10	Gun Wk Y Demi	3-3-5	Nk Over	1	Pass	7	Uncalled PI	Wilson	INT	-4.93
Just add it to the pile. CB is interfering the hell out of Wilson, McNamara throws it that way, Wilson doesn't even see it, the ball ricochets, and the CB gets to intercept it. Refs-3, even ESPN guys are flipping out that it wasn't called. Then the Nk targets Wilson and gets ejected. (TA, 1, Prot 1/1)
Drive Notes: Interception. 3-27. 1 min 2nd Q. EP-wise that's a 6-point no-call. Game-wise, Stetson Bennett fears the wrath of the football gods if they get to score on that and goes to halftime, getting hollered at by Kirby Smart for it, but also gets Michigan fans to root for him next round.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol 12 Y-Travel	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	2	Run	7	Split Zone	Haskins	0	-0.70
All(+1) digs out the edge and Honigford(+1) gets to the ILB so the backside should be takeable. Hayes(-2) gets crossed by the DT he's blocking down, and instead of trying to squeeze through that to open air Haskins(-1) stops and tries to go to the other side of that, where Vastardis(-2) got discarded by Davis so this goes nowhere.
M25	2nd	10	Gun Str (Y) Z-Orbit	3-3-5	Nk Odd	2	Pass	7	Mesh Cheat	Haskins	10	1.54
All(+1) is technically the crossing #4 read, but goes downfield and is blocking when Haskins gets the ball. Top route was open but flare had to be thrown immediately because Hayes(-1p) didn't react in time to the blitzer. Cade has to fling it high, Haskins(+1c) gets it, meets a CB at 7 yards and gets three more through him. (CA, 2, Prot 1/2, Hayes-1, McNamara+1)
M35	1st	10	Offset 2TE Bunch	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	2	Play-Action	7	Sack	McNamara	-6	-1.72
Late shift by UGA and they bring double pressure off the frontside. M's protection is set the other way but should still be fine except Honigford(-1p) follows Smith inside without touching him and Haskins stays in to help that instead of getting the safety. Cade does have a half beat to make a DO+ throw to his first read but tries to save himself. That might lead to a scramble but Vastardis(-2p) got absolutely abused by Walker who runs this down. (PR, n/a, Prot 0/3, Vastardis-2, Honigford-1)
M29	2nd	16	Gun Str Y Flex	3-3-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	6	RB Out	Corum	Inc	-0.25
Protection holds for awhile but doubles coverage has everyone bracketed but Corum. Cade puts it where it has to be for some possible YAC, Corum(-2c) drops it. (CA, 3, Prot 2/2, McNamara+1)
M29	3rd	16	Gun Str Y Flex	3-3-5	Nk Splits	2	Pass	6	TE Seam	All	21	3.37
M gets UGA to jump so this is a free throw. It's also a great one, over a leaping ILB, under the high safety, to a leaping All(+3c) where only he can reach back to haul it in with an HSP draped all over him. Catch of the year! (DO, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara+2)
50	1st	10	Offset Str	3-3-5	Nk Wide	2	Run	6	Counter CF	Haskins	19	1.00
Calling this the Erick All drive. M catches UGA in a CB blitz (RPS+1) which gives Vastardis(+1) an easy CB to kick and a stunt inside Zinter(+0.5) plays right and seals the DTs inside. There's still two free LBs replacing there. All(+2) beats Nakobe Dean (!!!) to the spot and turns him inside--dude!!!!!!!. The WLB is free because CJ(-1) went safety hunting instead of cracking when his CB left, then didn't get the safety. Haskins(+2) runs through both of them for an extra 10 yards.
O31	1st	10	Offset Str Y Flex	3-3-5	Nk Odd	2	Run	7	Split Zone	Haskins	3	-0.18
The HSP feints a blitz and enters the NZ but no flag (refs-1). Both teams check out of what they were doing. DE crashes with no fear of a keeper (RPS-1) but All(+1) still makes some room for Haskins(-0.5) to squeeze behind when Zinter(-1) lets the UGA DT cross his face then cross back into the B gap, though Zinter smartly got down to the LB so this can still work as Stueber(+1) washes that guy down to make room behind. HH just barrels into that DT anyways. He might get through him but Keegan(-1) also let the DT get into his shoulderpads and rip him down and that guy can hop on HH's back as he gets his two.
O28	2nd	7	Offset Trips	3-3-5	Nk Odd	1	Pass	8	Flare Screen	Edwards	Inc	-0.66
Wilson(+1) gets a good cut on his S and Sainristil(+0.5) got into Dean's knees to open the edge but Edwards(-2c) drops it. (CA-screen, 3, Prot n/a)
O28	3rd	7	Empty 4w	3-3-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	6	TE Leak	All	10	1.09
JJ in, takes a timeout, they come back in the same look. All(+2y) sells his block then cuts inside, JJ hits him in stride, and All cuts inside for the 1st. This guy, all drive man! (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McNamara+1)
O18	1st	10	Gun Ace Bunch	3-4-4	4-4 Over	1	Run	8	Pin & Pull	Haskins	4	-0.02
All(+1) arms out the edge and we're in business but Stueber(-2) loses his blockdown then tackles the guy. He gets away with it, while Hayes gets away with contact on the other DT that Keegan(+1) cut (refs+2). Zinter(+1) takes out the CB on the edge but Vastardis(-2) completely whiffs on Smith so Haskins(+0.5) can only get his 2 before going down. Hat tip to that dude.
O14	2nd	6	Pistol FB	3-4-4	3-4 Over	2	Penalty	7	False Start	Keegan	(-5)	-0.41
UGA has a timed shift that gets Keegan(-1) and Honigford(-1). They call it on Keegan.
O19	2nd	11	Gun Str	3-3-5	4-3 Over	2	Pass	7	Corner	Baldwin	INT	-4.59
Option route to Baldwin read wrong I think. UGA is in zone, CB is playing this out and over, Baldwin cuts like he expects Cade to throw the deep out and Cade throws a corner to the CB. Other options were a TD to Wilson or a productive checkdown to Corum. Hard to keep this one in perspective. (BRx, 0, Prot 1/1, McNamara-4)
Drive Notes: Interception. 3-27. 10 min 3rd Q. Fresh QB controversy is a Game of Thrones-worthy ending to The All Drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M40	1st	10	Gun Str Bunch	3-3-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	7	Dumpoff	Corum	Inc	-1.12
Right read with a DE dropping and an ILB blitz that's picked up by Vastardis but Cade zings it way off his target. (IN, 1, Prot 1/1, McNamara-2)
M40	2nd	10	Empty 3w	3-3-5	Nk Over	1	Pass	6	Hitch	Johnson	7	0.53
JJ in. Not a lot of room here with good coverage by the CB but JJ times it perfectly and places it where CJ(+1c) can shield the ball and pick up a solid gain. (DO, 2, Prot 1/1, McCarthy+1)
M47	3rd	3	Gun Str Y Flex	3-3-5	Nk Under	1	Run	6.5	Arc Read Give	Corum	9	-4.28
McNamara(read+) gets the DE stopped and hands off. UGA (Hat-2) is twisting the LBs and Dean attacks this Devin Bush style. Zinter(+1) catches the WLB blitz then gets enough of Dean that he'd have to make an insane play to stop this from being Corum into the secondary. He can't get Corum(-3), so he strips him.
Drive Notes: Fumble. 3-27. One more thing.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M28	1st	10	Gun Wk	3-3-5	Nk Over	1	Pass	6	Angle	Edwards	3	-0.33
Blitz picked up, Cade an out to Wilson but comes off it for an angle to Edwards(+1c) with YAC opportunity, but zings it high so his RB has to leave his feet and allows the HSP to hold it to a minimal gain. (MA, 2, Prot 2/2, McNamara-1)
M31	2nd	7	Offset Trips	3-3-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	6	Mesh	McNamara	-1	-0.74
Tempo(28). Keegan leaves Vastardis(-1p) alone with Davis (Hat-1) and that goes badly. McNamara(-3) has his first read and his checkdown open but tries to wriggle out instead, then fumbles. Gets pulled. (TA, n/a, Prot 0/1, Vastardis-1, McNamara-1)
M30	3rd	8	Gun Str Y Flex	3-3-5	Nk Under	1	Pass	6	TE Seam	All	25	3.45
UGOTTABEKIDDINGME throw. UGA drops backside DE and twists the DTs, picked up, but Dean is sneaking over to help. JJ places it perfectly between both LBs and under the FS. Did he even see Dean? Results-based yo. All(+2y) carries all three for another 8 yards. (DO, 3, Prot 1/1, McCarthy+3)
O45	1st	10	Gun Wk	3-3-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	7	Hitch	Wilson	Inc	-1.00
Tempo (26). Protection okay until Keegan(-1p) gets shed and JJ sails it to Tacopants after Wilson(+1route) owned his CB. (IN, 0, Prot 1/2, Keegan-1, McCarthy-1)
O45	2nd	10	Gun Str Y Demi	3-3-5	Nk Odd	2	Pass	6	Scramble	McCarthy	4	-0.16
Drop the backside DE bring MLB and M has no middle-threatening routes (RPS-1) so JJ bails. Anthony is trying to break loose down the sideline and gets snapped back by an egregious uncalled hold (refs-1). All(-1) stays in phase then starts boxing out instead of blocking, which frees the WLB to put a big hit on the QB after a minimal gain. (SCR, n/a, Prot 1/1)
O41	3rd	6	Offset Trips Bunch	3-3-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	6	Mesh	Edwards	Inc	-1.06
UGA blitzes five and drops everyone to the 1st down marker so the mesh rubs nobody and any outlet is 4th and 2. (RPS-1). Vastardis(-1p) compounds it as Smith runs by him, and it's JJ time. He juuust manages to outrun Smith then stops to survey and flicks it too high for Edwards to have a shot at it. (TA, 0, Prot 1/2, Vastardis-1)
O41	4th	6	Empty 4w	3-3-5	Nk Split	1	Pass	5	Improv	Sainristil	Inc	-3.64
UGA twists. It's picked up and everyone is covered but JJ reads the CB with eyes on the WR going to break up an out and floats it over him instead. It's just out of reach of Sainristil, with nobody behind him if completed. Gonna be fun when the WRs are in JJ mode, but here's where you miss Cade's steadiness. (MA, 1, Prot 2/2)
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 3-27. 14 min 4th Q. M gets ball back down 34-3 with 11:11 left so it's academic from here, but it's end of the year so let's play it out.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Gun Quads (H)	3-3-5	Nk over	1	Pass	6	Dbl Screen	Corum	0	-0.70
WLB goes for the Henning side, so they throw the slip screen. Dean (Hat-2) shot past Zinter and a DT stayed home so Corum has to fight to get back to the LOS. RPS-1. (CA-screen, 3, Prot n/a)
M25	2nd	10	Gun Wk	3-3-5	Nk Odd	2	Pass	6	Deep Hitch	Johnson	11	1.63
UGA uses their favorite blitz again and Keegan(-1p) ignores Dean to uselessly double the NT. JJ waits a beat then rockets it to CJ(+1route) who got a lot of space by snapping off his route well and adjusted perfectly. Haven't seen that throw since…Henne? Henson? (DO+, 3, Prot 0/1, Keegan-1, McCarthy+2)
M36	1st	10	Pistol FB Y Flex	3-3-5	Nk over	2	Pass	6	Flare Screen	Corum	5	0.11
Tempo (27). Henning lined up as the FB and they have him lead for a flare screen to Corum that's thrown backwards so it goes in the books as a run. Wilson(+1) stalks a new HSP and kicks but Henning(-2) runs into that guy instead of the waiting safety. Corum(+0.5) runs through that guy for an extra two, which we're now calling a Haskins. RPS+1 caught the LBs napping. (CA-Screen, 3, Prot n/a)
M41	2nd	5	Gun Wk	3-3-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	TE Out	All	Inc	-1.09
All is open but JJ waits a beat too long then throws it up and behind, goes off All(-1c)'s fingertips a half beat before he takes contact. (IN, 1, Prot 1/1, McCarthy-1)
M41	3rd	5	Empty 5w	3-3-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	5	Scramble	McCarthy	12 (Pen-15)	1.17
Keegan(-2p) is looking inside and lets a DT through while Vastardis has a LB in the same gap--good example of why easy rules for OL can't be the end of it. JJ should go down but instead he wriggles out and runs, picking up a solid gain. Corum(-2) takes an unnecessary shot on a safety as JJ is going out of bounds. Dumb refs call it a blindside--it is late hit. (SCR, n/a, Prot 0/2, Keegan-2, McCarthy+3)
M38	1st	10	Offset Wk Tight	3-3-5	Nk Odd	2	Pass	6	Scramble	McCarthy	7	0.71
Locked on a post to Sainristil between the two high zones but doesn't throw it then takes off and takes a shot. If you get positive yards you avoid a negative but Anthony(+1route) had 2 steps on his CB after putting on a move and Baldwin's CB fell down after JJ was already running. (SCR, n/a, Prot 1/1, McCarthy+1)
M45	2nd	3	Offset Str Bunch	3-3-5	Nk Under	1	Pass	7	WR Out	Anthony	Inc	-1.29
Tempo(29). Locks onto Anthony who's blanketed. Ball bounces in front of him. Had Schoonmaker for the 1st and change. RPS+1. (BR, 0, Prot 2/2, McCarthy-2)
M45	3rd	3	Pistol Trips H-Jet	3-3-5	4-3 Over	1	Run	7.5	Arc Read Give	Edwards	4	1.61
DT flies outside of Hayes (RPS+1) and McCarthy(read+) gives instead of trying the trap they're setting outside for him. Keegan(+1) catches the MLB blitz and escorts him out of the way so Edwards can come through. Smith (Hat-2) was the guy checking outside and comes all the way back to make a shoestring tackle or Edwards(+0.5) might have busted free; instead he falls forward for a Haskins and barely gets the 1st.
M49	1st	10	Gun Wk	3-3-5	Nk Splits	1	Pass	7	TE Stop	All	Inc	-1.13
Tempo(22). I can't tell if this was too high to All(-1c) or JJ expects All to keep going as this zings into Henning. I think it's the latter but All thinks it's the former; LB times his contact perfectly to assist with the drop. (IN, 2, Prot 1/1, McCarthy-1)
M49	2nd	10	Offset Str	3-3-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	6	Fly	Wilson	Inc	-1.01
Wilson(+1route) has three steps on his CB, who could have been flagged for a jersey grab (refs-1) and JJ misses him by a yard. Was under pressure because Zinter(-1p) moved on to the DE before passing off the DT. Refs(-1) let the DT rip him down afterwards, though JJ might have embellished. Rough grade here given all that. (IN, 1, Prot 1/2, Zinter-1)
M49	3rd	10	Empty Trips	3-3-5	Nk Wide	1	Pass	6	Fly	Edwards	43	3.74
Going in the Edwards preview next year because he runs this like a WR and the only thing the WLB set up 10 yards deep can do is try to tackle him at the end. That saves a TD but Edwards(+3c) adjusts and brings it in anyways. Refs initially spot him short, review the catch, and put him on the 8. (CA, 1, Prot 1/1, McCarthy+1)
O8	1st	Goal	Gun Trips	3-3-5	Nk Over	0	Run	7	Bash	Edwards	3	-0.12
McCarthy(read+) reads the DE's shuffle as Hayes and Keegan pull, gives. Looks promising despite a safety up and free out there until the HSP moves Wilson(-1) back two yards and Edwards has to cut up for what he can. Refs-2 miss a targeting by that safety which knocks Donovan's helmet off.
O5	2nd	Goal	Empty 12 5w	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	0	Pass	7	Slant	Wilson	Inc	-0.32
Pass is on the money, just dropped by Wilson(-2c). Grrr. RPS+1 caught UGA in a blitz so this was going to end up at the 1 or falling in. (CA, 3, Prot 1/1, McCarthy+1)
O5	3rd	Goal	Gun Twins	3-4-4	4-4 Over	0	Pass	8	Improv	Wilson	Inc	-0.29
UGA brings both LBs drops both ends, Keegan(-1, refs+1) holds, and JJ bails. He outruns Dean(!), gets to the edge and flings it at a well-covered Wilson. Would have been a helluva catch if he held on but it clangs of his hands and that allows the guy on All to grapple him and prevent him from reeling in a 2nd chance.
O5	4th	Goal	Empty 12 Bunch	3-4-4	3-4 Odd	0	Pass	9	Flare Screen	Edwards	-1	-4.05
Also goes down as a run but it's really just a bad (RPS-3) playcall with UGA rushing three and not needing to leave a safety deep. Transcontinental was wide open though. Edwards(+1) stiffarms the safety down but now everyone's had time to rally and they push him out. Run a damn play to the endzone! (CA-Screen, 3, Prot n/a)
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 3-34. 7 min 4th Q. UGA has their backups in next drive.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
50	1st	10	Gun Wk Y Demi	3-3-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	6	RB Flare	Corum	Inc(+15)	0.87
Looks like a predetermined throw under a pick but the backup OLB comes off Schoonmaker and lights Corum up with his helmet on the ball. Refs-3 come up with an absolutely horseshit targeting. He led with the helmet because it hit the ball guys. (BR, 1, Prot 1/1, McCarthy-1)
O35	1st	10	Gun Trips	3-3-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	6	Drag	Henning	Inc	-0.69
This is well played by the ILB (Hat-1) and an INT if on target after Henning(-1route) spends too long trying to shake the guy so he never has time to break away. Happily it goes wide. Tagging it MA because this was the right matchup and the WR underran the route. (MA, 1, Prot 1/1)
O35	2nd	10	Gun Str	3-3-5	Nk Odd	2	Pass	6	Fly	Anthony	35	3.61
Lol. CB blitz that Edwards(-1p, refs+1) picks up and gets away with a hold. That's long enough for JJ to launch it off his back foot to a wide open Anthony(+3route) who shimmied the FS to the pain. Filing that away. (CA, 3, Prot 1/2, Edwards-1)
O3	2PC	Goal	Wildcat Wk Bunch	3-5-3	Goal Line	0	Run	11	Reverse	Henning	3	1.00
Mad Magicians play. QB and RB flip before the snap, handoff to McCarthy(+0.5) to flips it back to Henning and shoulders a blitzer. Zinter(+1) pulled and locked out a DT. All(+1) kicked an edge, and CJ(+2) kept a safety sealed the whole play to make it a walk-in.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 10-34. 4 minutes 4th Q. End of season for the offense.

I tried to warn you. Alex tried to warn you. Graham from the Georgia blog tried to warn you. And what did you do?

I tried to edge Devin Bush.

And how did that work out for you?

It didn’t.

If you’re looking for one moment to encapsulate what happened to Michigan’s offense in this game, there you are. Michigan got Blake Corum, the slipperiest mofo in the Big Ten, matched in man to man with a linebacker who has to travel across the entire formation. It’s a two-yard loss because Nakobe Dean is a Devin Bush Jr.-level freak who can line up ready for an inside run and then show up as outside as you can get.

Dean is #17, the LB on the top hash here:

That winning that matchup was such a big part of Michigan’s gameplan was frustrating, because we knew going in that Dean is that kind of player. But Michigan felt they couldn’t run into stacked boxes with Haskins, which had been their strategy all season. And I sorta get that, because while Corum versus Dean isn’t a mismatch, Andrew Vastardis versus Jordan Davis or anybody else on the Georgia frontline was. Even when Michigan did manage to get Davis pinned down, a third-year Rashan Gary-level recruit like Travon Walker was there to stop it.

Watch the center.

They tried to stretch Davis out too, but normal rules like “If you get your guard across a nose tackle he probably won’t run down Blake Corum from behind” don’t apply here.

You don’t think Michigan could have game-planned around them?

I think they could have prepared some more interesting attacks, sure, but I can’t claim Michigan didn’t prepare interesting attacks. The above is a #SpeedinSpace special that forces the linebacker level to move Sainristil one direction while the stretch goes the other way, and an RPO read to make them wrong. Fundamentally, that’s a good play design. Nobody designs plays that expect the DT to do that.

Michigan did have some clever stuff prepared. You remember Mesh.

This is a new take on the old concept, where instead of running the second crossing route the #4 (Erick All in this case) blocks the MLB to set up a screen for the RB.

Michigan’s been toying around with what to do with the extra (“O”) receiver on this play for years; this time Gattis had Sainristil run an orbit motion out to the opposite flat, creating the field stretch that #SpeedinSpace loves, drawing Nakobe Dean away from the play, and giving McNamara clues by how Georgia responded that they were in a zone blitz.

We also finally got to see what they had planned all year if they needed a two-point conversion. Turns out it was an HB/QB flip reverse.

If you haven’t yet sensed a theme, all of these plays are trying to draw the linebacker level in two directions by threatening both flats. Gattis anticipated that Georgia was going to have Dean do very hard things, and thought he could profit by making things harder. I thought Kirby Smart did him one better, sticking to mostly Don Brown-like concepts and trusting his talent to carry the day. It’s nice work when you can get it.

Georgia was very prepared for the stuff that was already on tape, e.g., the myriad ways Michigan was using Donovan Edwards as a decoy receiving threat later in the season. This play wants to get the linebackers freaking out about Edwards on a flare screen then hit Wilson on a tunnel inside. It was a great idea except Channing Tindall, another blue chip, stayed inside when Wilson flashed his hands, came up to take that away, then got back in time to stop McNamara from scrambling for a chunk.

Wilson is the 2nd receiver down from the top

Tip your hat to the good defense there. It was also a simple defense. After failing to install a Quarters system against Alabama in the SEC Championship, the Bulldogs went back to their normal approach of bringing five and solving their problems with aggression. Michigan fell into the same trap so many Michigan opponents did in 2016-2019, trying to confuse a defense with too-simple instructions that doesn’t leave the backfield time for romance.

They also weren’t fooled on the flea flicker.

Michigan’s false start on the first play might have been a contributing factor. Michigan had the same setup on Play #1 then had to go to a passing set. As soon as they got a first down they set up in this heavy look again, and the free safety, Lewis Cine, may have been see something that clued him to be prepared for something deep.

The answer, I thought, was to throw it anyways. When you come up against a team that can man up and out-talent you, you have to play some NBA playoff basketball, IE, hunt the matchups. Corum versus Dean wasn’t a win. But Erick All was a star of the team all season and had an All-American-caliber game. Here he’s one on one with a safety, and about to get the right leverage. The checkdown to Haskins kept the ball moving, yes, but the way to beat Georgia was to throw it to All right there.

We agreed they win the talent game and you want to leave McNamara back there and chuck it?

Yeah. Michigan’s pass protection wasn’t great, but when they did move the ball it wasn’t from having the QB sit back and pick them apart. They had a few matchups that favored the Wolverines, and Georgia was happy to leave them out there in order to keep the rules simple. We know better than anyone how a passing attack that knows which fair fight it wants pre-snap can negate a pass rush. Georgia wasn’t throwing 2020 Vincent Gray out there, but neither were their cornerbacks up to the challenge of a Hawaiian receiver with Alabama receiver speed.

Roman Wilson versus press coverage: Advantage Michigan.

Donovan Edwards versus a (not Dean) linebacker trying to play cornerback: Advantage Michigan.

Erick All versus the safeties was Advantage: Michigan. J.J. McCarthy’s arm versus zone coverage (or man for that matter), Advantage: Michigan. Clearly, since I have examples, Michigan’s offensive trust didn’t ignore better matchups. I think they didn’t go into this game realizing they needed to surrender the easy stuff that worked all year to gamble on a tiny advantages on the hard stuff. I think they should have realized it sooner.

You mean before they were out of the game two drives into it?

Georgia leaping out to an early lead had its psychological effect on Michigan, the same way that Michigan’s two quick scores in Indianapolis got Iowa pressing in the Big Ten Championship game. But this game didn’t have to be a blowout, as you can see in the drive chart:

• 15-play, 69-yard drive that ends on downs at the UGA 5.
• 9-play, 54-yard FG drive killed by a sack on 1st and 10 at the 19.
• 11-play, 56-yard Erick All drive that ends on a terrible INT from the 19.
• 7-play, 34-yard drive that ends on downs after McNamara missed two open TEs.
• 7-play, 31-yard drive that ends on downs after McCarthy ran around twice.
• 6-play, 3-yard drive killed by a sack on play 4.
• 3-play drive where Corum fumbled as he was about to break a big run on 3rd and 3.
• One 3-and-out.
• 1-play interception when the refs missed flagrant pass interference near the end of the 1st half.
• 2-play garbage time TD drive to make the score look sorta respectable.

If you told me Michigan would turn the ball over six times versus Georgia, I’d put the final score at a lot worse than we got. If you think back to the Wisconsin blowout, after the drive chart I suggested the offense managed to capitalize on a lot of its high-leverage moments. This game was like that in reverse: Michigan had several opportunities to turn this back into a game, but Georgia got the big swings. That’s a credit to their generational defense. But Michigan was punctuating that equilibrium right back.

Going to try it in a viz so you can see how many big swing plays there were:

That’s not a complicated graphic, but it shows what I mean: For a game that was never really close, there were actually a lot of big moments.

Also a lot of “big” moments. As in their heavies abused ours.

I think I have a way to show that too.

Another Viz?

I was thinking a chart.

A Chart!

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hayes	1	4	-3	One good pin, one Jones event, one pass pro minus.
Keegan	3	11	-8	Most of this was protection not running game. Davis ate him alive.
Vastardis	2	11	-9	At least they did the same thing to Emil Ekiyor.
Filiaga	0	0	0	DNP.
Stueber	1	5.5	-4.5	Hit his agility limit.
Zinter	7.5	5	+2.5	This may come up a few times this offseason.
Barnhart	0	0	0	DNP.
Jones	0	0	0	DNC.
Atteberry	0	0	0	DNP.
Crippen	0	0	0	DNP.
All	18	3	+15	Swear words but in a good way.
Schoonmaker	1	2	-1	Wasn't Iowa out there.
Honigford	1.5	2	-0.5	Tells kids he once blocked Nakobe Dean.
Selzer	0	0	0	DNP.
Hibner	0	0	0	DNP.
TOTAL	35	43.5	-8.5	Remember this includes pass protection.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
McNamara	2	5	-3	Still can't read an RPO, can run a little.
McCarthy	1.5	0	+1.5	Escaping certain sack doom goes in the pass chart.
Villari	0	0	0	DNP.
Haskins	5.5	3.5	+2	Rumbled once, got impatient a few times.
Corum	0.5	7	-6.5	Fumble wasn't half his bad day.
Edwards	6	3	+3	Not enough of a threat against Dean.
Dunlap	0	0	0	DNP.
TOTAL	15.5	18.5	-3	Good on good changed the math that worked all year.
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Johnson	4	1	+3	Thumpin good blocking downfield.
Sainristil	1.5	0	+1.5	Got a lot of run, mostly as a decoy.
Henning	0	3	-3	Also got a lot of run, blew a screen.
Wilson	6	3.5	+2.5	SEC speed couldn't catch him.
Baldwin	1	0	+1	I will remember you.
Anthony	4	0	+4	Sick moves.
TOTAL	16.5	7.5	+9	Advantage: Michigan.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	42	63	67%	Keegan-8, Vastardis-4, Hayes-2, Zinter/Stueber/Haskins/Edwards-1, TEAM-3
RPS	11	13	-2	The #SpeedinSpace stuff was smart, cute lost.

I’m going to need you to turn off the profanity filter for a minute.

Understandable.

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD, ERICK MOTHERFUCKING ALL!

Fucking A. If Haskins was my “people need to appreciate this guy more” cause célèbre of 2021, I think my 2022 is going to be Erick All. The whole “Nakobe Dean wrecks your shit” thing works both ways, e.g. when a tight end manages to get around and seal him, that says some things about your tight end.

Erick the Mad also went to the Buttzone to convert a 3rd and 16 for a catch that we’ve been waiting for since that Ohio coach got really mad that the Buckeyes weren’t coming hard enough.

He also brought in the McCarthy pass between three defenders then carried the whole crew, Haskins-style, to convert a 3rd and 8 three times over. No, I did not hold off on this UFR until he announced he’ll come back for next year, but if anybody on Michigan substantially improved his draft stock in this game, it was All. He’s also been doing much the same season, mostly with his blocking, all season, yet isn’t getting anything like the kind of attention my scoring suggests he should be. That includes PFF, which is weirder still because they were banging the drum for George Kittle in his time. I guess it’s up to me. Hand me the drum.

Speaking of drumbeats, I feel like coming out positive for a true sophomore interior lineman against Georgia is one of those things you guys will talk about all offseason.

Well don’t spoil it, it’s only January man. Zinter’s good game was harder to see because the carnage going on around him negated his good works. Here’s a reach block that only led to three yards because Haskins got locked onto a gap that Georgia’s incredible linebackers got to anyways.

#65, the RG

The guy he got there however was Zion Logue, a 3-star sophomore who didn’t make my FFFF chart before the game. Zinter also made up some points on pulls against the WLB and CB, which are still good plays but not really “He beat Jones” plays. This is a play where he earned a negative because he let one of those monster DTs cross his face:

…but once that occurred Zinter made the best of it by picking off the linebacker and leaving the DT to get washed down by Stueber. Haskins missed the cut, and Keegan lost to his DT, so nothing came of it, but that’s a heady move by a teenager after he got beat.

Keegan had a rough day.

Yes, and so did Vastardis. The latter was a walk-on who’s out of eligibility so we don’t need to dwell on it. The former, well, his reputation for Graham Glasgow-like headiness was a bit premature.

#77 the LG

Much of the pressure Georgia was generating came from Jones moving Keegan off the ball, or Keegan being so focused on Jones that another guy punched through him. That hasn’t been an issue prior, so we don’t have to suddenly reconsider the RS sophomore’s grip on the job. Jordan Davis does this to people.

Did Jordan Davis turn our running backs into mortals?

Well yeah, at least putting Dean on them did so. You saw the Blake Corum moment earlier, and if not it’s already seared into your brain anyways. Michigan understandably wasn’t trying to run down the middle very much, and as a result Haskins had fewer snaps than either of his understudies. I showed you two plays in the Zinter section where Haskins got impatient and missed the correct zone lane. That was more than a two-time occurrence. Even when Haskins was making a good play, he wanted to pay it off immediately. This was the play I covered in Neck Sharpies because it showed the talent issue that Michigan had up front, but a key element was Haskins first getting Dean to bit on the wrong gap, then trying to get downfield instead of letting his blocking develop.

Dean does that to people, and I’m not going to dwell on it.

As for Edwards, Georgia spent a lot of time preparing for the ways Michigan likes to use him as a threat in the passing game then attack elsewhere. They weren’t so much prepared for the ways Michigan likes to use him as a threat and then make good on it.

Overall the gameplan had a lot of “You know what this is? It’s a decoy!” punches and not enough “You know what this is? It’s the real thing.” Edwards is going to be a fun weapon, but Michigan’s going to have to get better at its uncle games now that everybody’s had months to prepare.

Does Michigan have a new quarterback?

That’s to be seen, but Cade had a bad game, both for reasons that are baked in with Cade McNamara—height, arm strength is 10th percentile for NFL, doesn’t do post-snap reads, checks down—and because when circumstances meant Michigan needed more than McNamara’s capable of, he tried anyways.

CADE MCNAMARA

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	3+	3(3)-						2			1		67%	+5		4/5	2/7
Washington	1	3(2)-			2	(1)			3	1(1)	2		40%	-8		5/5	4/9
NIU	2	7+ -			1	1							100%	+11		1/2	1/2
Rutgers	3+	5-			1	1				5xx	1		57%	+2.5		2/2	1/6
Wisconsin	6	13	1		1	2		1	1	4x	2x		71%	+10.5		2/3	1/2
Nebraska	3+	13(2)-			3	6		3	3	6	1x		55%	-1.5		1/3	2/2
Northwestern	2	11(5)+			2	2		1	3	4xx	1		59%	-1		5/7	5/8
Michigan St	9++	19(1)+ -	1		1	1		2	5	5	4		64%	+20.5		1/2	1/1
Indiana	4	8(1)	1		4				1	1	1		81%	+10		0/0	3/6
Penn State	4+	8+++(2)			2	4		3	3	3			57%	+0		0/0	0/1
Maryland	5	14++(1)	1			2		2	3	1	1		74%	+14.5		0/3	5/9
Ohio State	3	7++(2)	1		3	3			1	1	1x		79%	+14		3/3	-
Iowa	3++	7+(2)			2	4			2	2	1x		67%	+2		3/3	1/3
Georgia	3++	4(4)	1		3	1		2	5x	2	1x		44%	+3		0/2	1/1

(reminder: you can hover over the letters in the headers if you forget what they mean, or there’s an explainer in the glossary)

 

Cade still did some thing things. Here he was cool under pressure and delivered it on time to Baldwin before he cut:

Here he anticipated that they wouldn’t be worried about him as a runner and fit that into his pre-snap read.

But overall I would argue this performance was his worst of the season—worse even than Washington. There were a lot of good reasons, and a few bad, so let’s tackle each in turn.

Being short is a bigger problem against bigger teams. Georgia, with access to edge rushers who can do everything yours can with an extra 4 inches, “plays small” but they’re all so long it’s like trying to find space against a basketball team made up of Franz Wagners.

That’s a big RPS win beaten by basketball reasons. Another came on a 3rd and 5 to Schoonmaker on Michigan’s first drive that would have converted with room to run well into scoring range. The ensuing 4th down throw throw wasn’t batted, but it had to miss another guy at the line and flew just ouside of All’s reach. McNamara isn’t tall and has a low release point, but those are usually twice-a-game problems. The issue increases exponentially with the talent and size of the opponent, which is why it was a big deal in this one.

The RPO issue is more about what kinds of plays your offensive coordinator can design for you. Gattis really wanted to put Corum/Henning/Edwards in space opposite the point of attack to draw Nakobe Dean away from his plays, but those threats are often empty because Cade makes all of his reads pre-snap. McNamara here checks that the backside defender can’t get to Zone Left, which is not the same as checking whether the defender has opened up the flare to Henning.

This often applies to his post-snap pass progressions as well. I noted this play earlier was a clever attempt to use the threat of an Edwards flare screen to pop Wilson free underneath. When Wilson didn’t pop free underneath that shouldn’t the end of the play; it should mean that they didn’t go with Edwards and it’s time to make good on the threat. As he did when they ran this series against Washington, McNamara froze up.

Having the All-22 for this game meant I finally got to see a lot of the throws that people with access to coach film, e.g. Devin Gardner, have been criticizing McNamara for not throwing this year. One example of that is the the flea-flicker that Georgia covered early in the game. I gave Cade a “TA” for checking down to Haskins on that one, crediting Haskins for turning zero yards into five. I also gave him a “TA” for taking a sack here.

I know that our resident super-annoying Cade defender is revving up to explode on me here, so let’s put all of that in some context. That’s a hard play. The play-action drew Dean down but Georgia otherwise covered things well, and the pass protection wasn’t going to last. Most college quarterbacks are not going to hang in there, get the ball over a leaping 6’6” defensive tackle to the Cornelius Johnson dig route after Wilson draws away the secondary’s leverage. To beat most teams on Michigan’s schedule you want a quarterback who knows his limitations and doesn’t risk a pick to make that throw. To beat Georgia, you need a quarterback who can make that throw, and Cade isn’t that guy.

I say that because what really drew out the bad in this game was McNamara trying to be that anways. I didn’t mind the first interception from him—Brian disagrees with me on this but I’ve seen it enough now to at least consider that Cade will throw a pass at a guy who’s being obviously interfered with to draw the foul. If he didn’t play for the team that regularly gets the shittiest officiating in college football those kinds of throws would be clever. Tom Brady, who’s every NFL official’s best buddy, pulls that all the time. For Georgia to get an interception off of that was dumb luck—the ball was touched three times before it was caught. And there was so little time left that the Bulldogs were unlikely to score had they (as Kirby Smart wanted) bothered to try.

Cade’s interception on the next drive, however was an O’Korn vs Ohio State-level bad read. Baldwin is running an option route here, and if you know your Mouse Davis Run ‘n Shoot rules you know when a cornerback is playing over and away like that you come under him. Baldwin makes the correct (and obvious) read. Instead of cooly stepping into the pocket like a veteran and paying that off, McNamara steps back like a freshman and lobs it directly to the area the cornerback cheated to.

What sticks out about it the most is how freshman (technically he was one) that play was. It’s one read, and he throws it off his back foot from a clean pocket. When you’re the safe and steady vet holding off a freshman phenom, the most devastating thing you can do is give the people the worst case scenario of playing your backup. Get that from McCarthy and the people go “Well, what did you expect? That’s why we had the guy who can shave in there.” Get that from a man with stubble, and it’s hard to make a case for him anymore.

So let’s do that. The throws leading up the The Really Bad Throw were charted as a TA, CA, PR, CA, DO, CA(screen). Pretty standard Cade there. He checked into a run that got Haskins 19 yards (I still don’t have a way to credit the QB for those in our system so I try to point them out), then converted this 3rd and 16 by giving All a chance.

That’s the kind of quarterback you win the Big Ten with, and you know what: He did that. You look at next year’s schedule, and while there are plenty of road bumps, only Ohio State looks like they’ll provide the kind of challenge Michigan faced in their first playoff appearance. If the quarterbacks are the same guys they were in 2021, it makes sense to ride McNamara there. That guy can get you to Columbus with a perfect record. I want that guy on my team.

I don’t think that guy can operate an elite offense, however. It’s not just me saying so—Harbaugh said after the game that the reason McCarthy took over was they needed to go with a guy who could make big plays and bring them back. Cade is safe, but I would say once you get down four scores to the best defense college football has seen in a decade, safe is no longer an option.

And day by day, the guy whose ceiling gets you to where Clemson was for most of the CFP’s existence is starting to look like a better one.

JJ MCCARTHY

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr			Reads
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	GRADE!		RPOs	ZRs
W. Michigan	1+++	2				3		1x		1			60%	-2		0/0
NIU		4+							1		1		67%	+4		2/2	3/3
Wisconsin	1												100%	+2		2/2	4/6
Nebraska		1											100%	-		1/1	2/2
Northwestern	1	(2)								2	1		25%	+2		0/1	1/2
Michigan St.		2(1)											100%	+2		1/1	4/4
Indiana	1	1			1	1			3x	3	2x		20%	-6		2/3	1/2
Maryland	1	1(2)				1							100%	+3		2/2	1/1
Ohio State	1+													+2		0/0	3/3
Iowa		2								1			67%	+1		0/0	4/5
Georgia	3+	5(3)	3			2			1	4	2		61%	+6		0/0	5/5

The numbers above remain an Experience. Three scrambles. Four passes marked “Inaccurate.” Twice as many bad reads as throwaways. He locked onto receivers instead of making his progressions, took unnecessary risks, and brought back Tacopants. So let’s not get carried away by what McCarthy did here—it was Drew Henson 1998 stuff, not Drew Henson 2000.

But,

THAT is how you beat a Georgia, a feat that this year’s Heisman winner managed once in two attempts. That throw beats Nakobe Dean (LB#17), who isn’t even thinking about Donovan Edwards on a circle route beneath him. That throw beats coverage that double-covered the hole and used a safety over top instead of spending any of those players to bring an extra blitzer. That throw beats Quay Walker (LB#7), who took away an outside release then came back inside exactly how he was taught. It beats Dan Jackson (S#47), who read the route and was coming down to stick on the catch. Those motherfuckers played that as well as they could, as well as any three defenders in college football this year could. It wasn’t enough.

The way you beat any team, any coverage, any offense that can put your defense on skates, is a guy who can throw frickin laser beams:

That throw beats Kelee Ringo (CB#5), the 4th overall prospect of 2020, who makes his cut with Johnson just four yards off, starts running when McCarthy winds up, and is three yards off when the ball arrives. It beats Nakobe Dean, who shot into the backfield and launched himself high enough to block an average point guard’s three-point attempt. It defies your brain, especially if it’s been calibrated for college football passes.

Earlier I mentioned how the All-22 film revealed some of the limitations of McNamara’s game in the throws he turns down. Given the opportunity to play QB1 and run the whole offense, McCarthy showed he will try the things that McNamara will not. The OMFG throw between three defenders is the most extreme example.

McCarthy will also go off-script, which changes how the receivers have to think when the ball is in the air. This is a 4th down play and with Cade you would expect him to find Sainristil with outside leverage and try to fit it in there. McCarthy tries something else: using the cornerback’s technique—he’s watching the receiver not the ball—to give Sainristil somewhere else to go. Sainristil doesn’t realize this until too late.

There’s a good reason to play McCarthy as much as you can during the easy early portion of next year’s schedule. Daylen Baldwin brought one of those passes in against Western Michigan, you’ll recall. But Baldwin was the guy to throw those to, because he played most of his college ball at a level where you can mess with cornerbacks all day. Sainristil spent the last two years as a McNamara target; his last jump ball opportunity was a endzone fade against Rutgers in 2020.

The other thing that made McCarthy the guy for this game was he was regularly escaping the 5-star tacklers up front. Here’s #22 overall prospect of 2019 Travon Walker abusing Trevor Keegan and still coming up empty for it.

Here’s the #1 overall prospect of Walker’s year, Nolan Smith, a physical freak who can move like a cornerback at 6’3”/235, but isn’t fast enough to collect a sack on a free run up the middle.

There aren’t going to be a lot of times when you need a guy who can outrun and out-throw the quasi-pro elite players Michigan faced in the Orange Bowl. But there will be those times, including Thanksgiving weekend every year, and the closer J.J. McCarthy gets to being the kind of guy who can make the steady play with the frequency that McNamara usually does, the closer Michigan is to finally cresting the summit.

After an offseason in Ann Arbor, three nonconference buys, and a relatively easy Big Ten season, McCarthy may well be that guy. He’s not there yet.

But if he doesn’t pass McNamara in the next 365 days he will in 400.

So that’s it? Your takeaway from an absolute annihilation is coach up the quarterback and everything will be fine?

Well their receivers are going to grow up some as well. Andrel Anthony isn’t going to get to feast on backup safeties for much longer.

Roman Wilson isn’t going to find cornerbacks ranked any higher than the Georgia guys he dusted. Cornelius Johnson’s routes that were sharp enough to beat Kelee Ringo will do worse to worse. He’s also turning into a solid blocker.

Which if you’re trying to guess who gets to be the snaps leader out of this loaded group next year, I think he’s your dude. Swapping Daylen Baldwin for Ronnie Bell ain’t going to make them worse. Georgia’s secondary isn’t the best part of that defense, but they’re still really good and Michigan’s receivers had a day against them anyways.

Season WR chart:

	THIS WEEK					THIS YEAR
Player	Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine		Uncb	Circus	Tough	Routine
Johnson			1/1	1/1		16	3/14	12/16	23/26
Baldwin	1			1/1		6	0/6	7/9	9/11
Sainristil		0/1		1/1		4	3/10	4/5	14/14
Henning		0/1		1/1		3	1/3	1/3	5/5
Wilson	1	0/3	1/1	0/1		5	2/8	7/8	17/19
Anthony	1			1/1		4	3/7	2/3	9/9
Dixon						1	0/1		1/1
x Bell x							1/2	1/1
All	1	1/3	0/1	3/3		3	2/8	6/10	28/28
Schoonmaker			0/1			4	2/6	1/3	14/14
Honigford						2		0/1	1/1
Selzer						1	0/3	0/1	1/1
Hibner
Corum		0/2		3/4		2	1/3	1/1	23/27
Haskins	1		1/1	1/1		3		4/4	12/12
Edwards	1	1/1	1/1	2/3		4	2/4	3/4	15/18

The major thing here is Edwards, who dropped a bunny but more than made up for it. Guy is a legit WR threat, and is going to be a lot of fun.

Heroes?

Erick MF’ing All. Donovan Edwards.

Maybe not so heroic?

Keegan and Vastardis got the Jones. McNamara had his worst or second-worst game. His ceiling is better, but was also visible, and trying to go beyond it is the reason the reigning Big Ten champion quarterback heads into the offseason fighting an uphill battle to keep his job.

What does it mean for 2023?

McCarthy is only a matter of time. How much is yet to be determined. This performance went two steps beyond mere potential, but he’s still liable to do something crazy that opens the door for a team that shouldn’t beat Michigan to do so.

Let’s not play against Nakobe Dean again. I don’t think we need to downgrade the running backs for not dominating this game like they usually have. I think we should get more Devin Bush Jr.-like objects and gameplan around any we may come across.

Let’s not play against Jordan Davis and Travon Walker and Devonte Wyatt and Nolan Smith again. I think they’re all off to the NFL, though their other NT, Jalen Carter, has to come back another season. Anyway, yeah, Michigan’s best OL in the country was a bit opponent-variant, and ran into a buzz saw in this one.

Zinter though. Positive day versus a buzz saw as a true sophomore is a portent, even if half of the positive points he got weren’t against the saws.

More like Erick All-American, amirite? Join the cause.

The receivers are ready to go to war. Gattis built the room he said he would. This year made sense to stick to the ground. Next year, unleash hell.