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FORMATION NOTES: Michigan did a few unusual things. They had a quads formation with a RB in the backfield:

This was either bubble screens or QB runs and probably won't recur unless there's some more stuff in the vault. They also had an arc read off a twins formation with two guys in the backfield:

 

Also there were a couple I-Form plays!

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Patterson at QB, usual on OL—no Hayes this time. Haskins and Charbonnet split the RB snaps about down the middle; Turner and Wilson did not appear. Ben Mason got ~10 snaps as a FB/TE.

WR was close to even between Black, Collins, DPJ, and Bell, with each guy getting 60-70% of the snaps because most snaps had 3 WRs. Eubanks was near-omnipresent; TE #2 was mostly All, with a cameo from Schoonmaker. Sainristil, Jackson, and Johnson got cameos.

[After THE JUMP: more yards, fewer points]

Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun empty	0	1	4	Nickel under	6	Pass	Slant	Jackson	Inc
Quick slant to Jackson is going to get 5-6 unless Jackson can break a tackle;well behind. (IN, 1, protection 1/1)
M25	2	10	Pistol twins 2H	1	2	2	4-4 even	8	Run	Arc zone keeper	Patterson	2
DE dives down, pull. PSU also sends a corner off the edge who should be able to crunch Patterson(+2), but Patterson dodges him. He’s got the edge and now M has this blocked to the backside safety, except Schoonmaker(-2) decides to leave Parsons; to be fair Parsons doesn’t looks like he’s even looking for Patterson but dude is five star for a reason. Otherwise this is a chunk. RPS –1; this probably should have been a loss because CB blitz and that blitz did buy PSU time to rally.
M27	3	8	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Dig	Collins	17
PSU tips a blitz off the slot and sends it. Mayfield(-1) beat around the corner a bit; he does push the guy past but it’s a bit of a problem. Runyan and Bredeson beat a stunt to the other side so no real edge. Patterson smoothly slides away from pressure to buy time and then nails Collins to convert. (DO, 3, protection 2/3)
M44	1	10	Pistol twins 2H	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	TE flare screen	Eubanks	2
Covered slot so trying to catch PSU assuming run. Doesn’t work. Both WRs go downfield and stalk block; seems like you should have the slot guy crack so at least PSU has to replace. As it is an unblocked S runs at Eubanks and the throw is bad, so Eubanks(+1) should lose yards but dodges the S and gets a couple. (MA, 2, protection N/A, RPS -1)
M46	2	8	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Rollout hitch	Black	7
Zone look, CB bailing on snap, M rolls to the field and Patterson hits the hitch. Not quite an RPS but a good sensible thing to do. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O47	3	1	Pistol twins FB	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Split zone	Haskins	0
PSU looks fairly passive and then they shoot their LBs to the LOS just before the snap; M snaps with 11 on the clock and PSU gets forward momentum. Eubanks(-2) has a moment where he steps to the DE on the outside and that’s it. Mason(+0.5) gets that kickout but Eubanks got zipped through because of the hesitation and the snap timing (RPS -1). Haskins has to regap and has a shot as Bredeson(+0.5) and Onwenu(+0.5) clear out a pocket of space on the frontside with Onwenu(+0.5) getting a big kickout; S at 6 chops Haskins(-1) down at the LOS with 0 YAC.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 12 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M15	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	?	?	Run	Arc zone give	Haskins	1
Patterson(-2) misses a clear pull read as the DE does nothing but charge at the RB. He has two guys leading(!) with Bell on a jet and just a couple od DBs and maybe an end turning around to chase from the inside; this is a giant missed opportunity. Ruiz(+1) and Onwenu(+1) had split a big cavern in the middle of the D so if this was in fact a give read Michigan will get a nice gain. So there’s that.
M16	2	9	Pistol 3-wide tight	1	1	3	Nickel even	6.5	Pass	Improv	DPJ	Inc
The nobody’s open play. Forever-ever for Patterson in the pocket. He stares down Black way too long and misses DPJ absolutely wide open for 15 yards and a ton of running room. He slides out of the pocket to the left and finally finds DPJ for the catch; his long looping ball forces DPJ to extend to catch it and as he secures the ball a safety punches it out. Catch the ball, yes, but also throw the ball. And DPJ caught it, and then the safety made a Play. (BR, 1, protection 3/3)
M16	3	9	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Penalty	False start	Mayfield	-5
Mayfield -1.
M11	3	14	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Run	Belly	Charbonnet	4
Runyan(-2) whiffs entirely on a DE; that shouldn’t matter too much but a push on the backside DT—he gives ground to a double but not enough—and the DE off the edge coming down fast means this is limited. A give up and punt anyway.
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-0, 8 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M14	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Y cross	Bell	Inc
Again forever for Patterson; he waits for Bell to get all the way from the field-side slot to the other edge of the field and then launches a pass that’s right at the sideline and high; incomplete. Just too long to find it. (IN, 0, protection 3/3)
M14	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Bubble screen	DPJ	Inc
LB blitzes off the slot so this should be good but Black(-2) decides to block the MLB moving out from literally head up on the RB instead of the S shaded over the slot and that S is going to kill DPJ, but he drops it anyway. (CA, 3, screen)
M14	3	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	TE skinny post	Eubanks	17
Eubanks(route+) goes vertical before breaking across the face of the LB in coverage on him and Patterson has a rare rhythm throw for a chunk. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
M33	1	10	Pistol twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	Bubble screen	Collins	-3
Collins(-3) gets the -3 because he runs a route here on a bubble screen where two field-side guys blitz, leaving Black and Collins alone against one guy. Throw is bad and gives Black no chance but shouldn’t have mattered. (IN, 3, screen, RPS +3)
M30	2	13	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Scramble	Patterson	13
Protection is mostly good; Bredeson gets driven back uncomfortably far but Patterson can step up as Ruiz looks for work and shoves him out of the middle. Once Patterson(+1) breaks up in the pocket he’s got a ton of room and is able to run past a LB and turn it up for the first down. (SCR, N/A, protection 2/2)
M43	1	10	Wildcat empty twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Pin and pull	Charbonnet	8
Don’t love the wildcat aspect here but whatever; think that this is set up well presnap as the slot LB is shaded just inside the WR, bubble thoughts? Eubanks(-1) inline TE, gets driven back two yards, almost picks off Bredeson. All(+1) wing TE, blocks down on playside LB, LB tries to go upfield, All shoves him. Other LB then trips over All, who’s not looking at him, and Onwneu has nothing to do as a result. Bredeson can’t get out to the S because of Eubanks. Bell(+1) had a very good block on the slot LB, although he was force. Charbonnet(+1) spins past the S for a few more. RPS +1, LB gone.
O49	2	2	Shotgun 3-wide tight	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	6
This is another missed pull read with no PSU edge; Patterson -2. Runyan(-1) driven back and the edge blocks here get weird because Bell(-1) is trying to crack a LB and just gets run through as Charbonnet has to go inside of Runyan. All is wandering to the field alone. Bredeson(+1) gets depth on a DT; he then moves out on a LB to stall him. All(+1) comes down to finish that guy and Charbonnet(+1) is able to break a tackle and get a decent gain.
O43	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7.5	Pass	RPO in	Collins	Inc
Patterson has two options here and appears to come off Bell for unknown reasons, as he’s open, and goes for Collins. This throw is MA/IN borderline as it’s low-ish and well in front of Collins, who can’t bring it in. (MA, 2, RPO, RPS +1). Maybe more drop-ish than I thought from Collins previously. Wish we got a replay.
O43	2	10	Shotgun quads	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Bubble screen	Bell	7
Goofy formation with a covered slot and Mason as the RB. Bubble, S blows it by running upfield and getting sealed inside by DPJ(+1). Collins(+0.5) does okay on his block, and Bell(-0.5) makes a weird decision to go outside of a force player; there is a LB coming out to the inside but All is harassing him and he ends up tripping; Bell able to tightrope the sideline. No RPS as this is more of a PSU player error. (CA, 3, screen)
O36	3	3	Exotic	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Run	Split zone	Charbonnet	0
Patterson moves up from a pistol spot to the guard and fakes taking a snap. This does nothing to PSU, and actually removes the threat of Patterson keeping so unblocked end just runs hard at the play and meets Mason so far inside that Charbonnet has to cut into guys. Runyan(-2) got off balance and missed a second level block; Charbonnet(+1) had spun through the first tackle attempt and is at least going to fall forward for a couple and probably the first down if he doesn’t get stuck. RPS -2.
O36	45	3	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Pass	Slant	Black	Inc
Refs(-3) decide to ignore Reid jumping on Black vastly early. PSU sent six against 5 blockers so a guy gets in free but from the edge. (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 0-7, 1 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	5.5	Run	Zone read keeper	Patterson	-1
M gets their snap timed up by a CB blitz. There’s no variation after the foot lift, and no checks to the sideline. 11 secs on the clock. LB rips across line; DE stunts inside. Patterson is reading… I have no idea, but he pulls this ball; all five guys aside from the blitzer are being blocked. Blitzer blows up RB, Patterson runs into Onwenu(+0.5), who’s ejecting his guy as he moves upfield, and the stunter gets Patterson. RPS -2.
M24	2	11	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Run	Pin and pull	Haskins	1
Jackson, orbit motion, read-ish but probably just a straight handoff. Eubanks(-3) lets a DE inside of him cross his face and get into the pullers. Not great, Bob. Haskins(+0.5) does well to get across the LOS.
M25	3	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	3-3 stack	6	Pass	Sack	N/A	0
CB blitz, Collins points it out, and Haskins doesn’t look like he’s going to pick it up for a second. Then he does. Patterson bails after one read and not really even that. (TA, N/A, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 0-14, 12 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M26	1	10	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	1
Patterson(-2) misses another pull as M switches the read guy here; Eubanks blocks the backside DE and All shades down to cut off the LB. If he steps down and All can cut him off, Patterson needs to pull. Either that or this is a bad play design that can’t make All useful. Mayfield(-0.5) and Onwenu(-0.5) double a DT but can’t really move him; Onwenu has to abort quickly to get this LB and can’t really. Ruiz(-1) has the other DT locked out for a second and then loses him; other LB who is unblocked gets to hole and there are three guys.
M27	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-4 even	8	Pass	Rollout comeback	Black	5
Pretty meh gain as Black is moving backwards on the catch while he’s three yards downfield, so he has to stall his momentum and pound out what he can. (CA, 3, protection N/A)
M32	3	4	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Slant	DPJ	8
M motions DPJ to the boundary with Eubanks; six man pressure. DPJ has a S in off coverage; threatens fade and then breaks in, open, easy strike. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
M40	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	Nickel even	7	Pass	Fly	Collins	45 (Pen offset)
The ludicrous Collins OP. PA, five PSU guys get nowhere near Patterson as M goes max pro, punt up to Collins. Collins finds a badly thrown ball and comes back to make a catch. Flags both ways! Because that’s better for football than letting a guy make a catch. (MA, 1, protection 3/3, refs -3)
M40	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Pass	Dumpoff	Charbonnet	Inc
Patterson again lacks patience; he has protection here for another second but starts moving around; finding that his lane up the middle is occupied. Then he checks down, which isn’t a terrible idea but because he’s already moving he puts the ball in the sideline. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M40	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Screen	Charbonnet	INT
Orbit motion from Black, flare screen threatened, come back to RB screen the other way. Charbonnet trips on a blocker but then a boundary corner has nothing to do except read this and attacks it for an INT. FFS. If Charbonnet doesn't’ trip this might not be an INT but it is an immediate stick for -2 yards. (MA, 0, screen, RPS -2)
Drive Notes: Interception, 0-14, 9 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	4-3 even	7.5	Run	Pin and pull	Haskins	1
Mayfield(+0.5) and Eubanks(+0.5) both get shoves in to clear the decks on the outside but a little sketchy. Pull is a complete fiasco. Playside LB goes right into DPJ(-1) on the snap and DPJ catches him; he’s on the inside and DPJ has done nothing. CB is in zone and pops off this and is charging hard from the outside so RB has to cut up. Onwenu(-1) doesn’t know what to do with this LB and it’s possible DPJ pushes him past his aim point, and then Ruiz(-1) runs past this and turns around to block the guy the other two guys are already blocking. Also Schoonmaker(-1) whiffs his second level block.
M26	2	9	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Hitch	Collins	30
Collins(route+, +1) shuts down his route about seven yards downfield and has enough separation to beat the CB’s tackle and then he’s got a big gainer. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O44	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over SAM	7	Penalty	False start	Schoonmaker	-5
Schoonmaker -1.
O49	1	15	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Haskins	10
PSU assuming pass here; DE puts a spin move on Mayfield, which you don’t see on standard downs much. Other DE fires off and forms up a couple yards deep, so give. Onwenu(+1) and Ruiz(+1) double through a DT with Ruiz getting a LB. Bredeson(+0.5) does enough on a double block on a DT to provide a crease up the middle that Haskins(+1) hits with a nice cut. RPS +1.
O39	2	5	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 under	6.5	Run	Split zone	Haskins	6
Slot LB blitzes again but timing is off a bit so he has to halt, and M can pick him up. Difficult still with a DT firing inside of Mayfield and Onwenu leaving for the other DT. Mayfield slows him down a bit; Eubanks(+0.5) seems to redirect mid-play and gets enough of this guy. Onwenu(+1) makes up for it by coming to the dude Ruiz(+0.5) has stood up and knocking him over, then getting a second-level block.
O33	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Zone stretch	Haskins	0
Eubanks(-2) does not get off the LOS on the snap and the playside end blows past him for a solo TFL. Mayfield(-1) looks this guy up and should see him going vertical and try to chip or help in some way but goes to the second level. Haskins(+1) is able to grind out four YAC to get back to the LOS.
O33	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6.5	Pass	Scramble	Patterson	4
M stones a four man rush and Patterson has all day. He takes off after the Red Sea parts in front of his face and takes off. I’m filing this MA: all day, find someone, but also some yards. (MA, N/A, protection 3/3)
O29	3	6	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Out	DPJ	7
DPJ over to the same spot he ran an angle route earlier; this time just a speed out that converts as Patterson fires a rhythm throw out to the sideline. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O22	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	RPO slant	DPJ	22 (Pen -5)
RPO, Patterson gets it out immediately like he has to since he’s got a guy in his face, and DPJ makes the catch until the safety blows him up. Dude put his helmet right on the ball going a million MPH, nobody holds on to this. Carom goes right to Bell for a TD, hooray. It comes back because Ruiz(-1) is six yards downfield blocking on an RPO, boo. (CA, 0 for DPJ, 3 for Bell, RPO)
O27	1	15	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Fly	Black	Inc (Pen +15)
Standup DE, implies backout and blitz from other side, yup. Nice pickup by Charbonnet on guy #1, guy #2 is through clean. Enough time for Patterson to put up a fly route, which sure fine better than anything else you’re doing. PSU pays it off when the CB loses his head and interferes unnecessarily way before the ball arrives. (not charted, 0, protection ½, TEAM -1)
O12	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Run	Pin and pull	Charbonnet	12
Eubanks(+1) gets his block this time and that opens up the edge. Mayfield(+0.5) gets out in space and gets jumped around by a CB trying to go upfield, but there’s no way. Ruiz(+1) saw the playside LB blitz and stopped to cut him off. RPS +1, PSU blitz pattern took the other LB out of the equation and M had blockers for the whole boundary.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-21, 3 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M36	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Deep out	DPJ	19
Another confident rhythm throw to the sideline as DPJ breaks in to threaten a seam or post and then cuts it off to the outside; cover 3 CB has turned his hips inside and has no shot to come back to this. (CA, 3, protection 2/2, DPJ route+)
O45	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Throwaway	N/A	Inc
Mayfield(-1) engages his guy and gets driven a bit; DE threatens to come through and Patterson moves up. He’s got a spy and I have no idea what it looks like downfield, Patterson puts it OOB. (TA, 0, protection ½)
O45	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Dumpoff	Charbonnet	4
CB blitz, stunt on the same side, M sets to the field and doesn’t have enough guys to block the blitz. Charbonnet is checking the field guys and sees no blitz so he releases; CB comes free from the outside and the stunt is causing some problems. Ruiz(-1) needs to come off the basic DT rush that Bredeson has handled and help; Charbonnet(-1) didn’t check the CB. Patterson dumps it to Charbonnet to get something. (CA+, 3, protection 0/2)
O41	3	6	Shotgun trips tight bunch	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Out	Bell	Inc
This is there for a first down but Patterson flinches as the rush gets through late and throws this off his back foot. Bell has to curve 3 yards back upfield to get this and is going to get tackled short instead of getting it; he drops it anyway. (IN, 3, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Missed FG(58), 7-21, 1 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M10	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Pass	Scramble	Patterson	12
Another big ass blitz off the slot that times up the snap. Patterson(+1) sits in the pocket for two reads and then another red sea so he takes off. With no one in front he takes off, runs past a guy, and picks up a first down. (SCR, N/A, protection 3/3)
M22	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Run	Inside zone	Haskins	0
Very blah from the OL. Ruiz(-1) releases direct to MLB, MLB comes under him. Onwenu(-1) and Bredeson(-0.5) both get no movement on the DTs, with Onwenu faring worse against Windsor. Nowhere to go, clunk.
M22	2	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Rollout fly	Black	Inc
M gets Patterson the edge so he has lot of time to survey; this time he doesn’t really have anyone open. He can run for a few but instead he tries to chuck it to Black. I support this, arm punt away. But don’t put it in the sideline, give your guy a shot. (IN, 0, protection 2/2)
M22	3	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Slot fade	Bell	Inc (Pen +15)
Works for us for probably the first time. Bell gets outside position and Patterson puts a beauty of a throw on him that Bell has to lay out for because the S started grabbing at his arm. Bell lays out and damn near brings this in but can’t quite. If not for the interference this is perfect. (DO, 1, protection 1/1)
M37	1	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Run	Inside zone	Haskins	0
Orbit motion, LB shuffles down and comes off the edge, easy give. PSU shifted right before the snap and M does a good job dealing with this but they also stunt a DE away from the play directly into the POA. Mayfield(+1) does a good job to dig out a DE; Ruiz(+0.5) escorts a guy slanting away upfield and away but a DE who Runyan has zero chance of doing anything with just shows up in the lane. RPS -2.
M37	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Run	Arc zone give	Haskins	4
This is an RPO on which Eubanks leaks out after brushing the DE. CB over Eubanks doesn't rush at the LOS but is flatfooted; kind of feel like you want to give Eubanks a shot here but it's close. Runyan(+1) does a good job to dig out a DT with Bredeson(+0.5) so a little room; as Haskins cuts behind Bredeson both the DE and CB tackle.
M41	3	6	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Nickel under	6	Pass	Sack	Patterson	-7
CB blitz is tipped and Charbonnet does a great job to get over to the other side of the formation to get to it. Patterson has another beat or two before he needs to get rid of it but pulls it down and gets sacked. (TA, 0, protection 2/2)
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-21, 9 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M10	1	10	Shotgun quads	1	0	4	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Bubble screen	Bell	12
PSU doesn't’ react to a goofy formation; bubble. Black(+1) and Collins(+0.5) get eliminating bocks on their guys; Black’s is tougher with a LB-ish guy charging. He cuts off the outside, easy conversion. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1)
M22	1	10	shotgun quads	1	0	4	4-3 over	6.5	Run	QB split zone	Patterson	4
Long double on one DT from Ruiz(+0.5) and Onwenu(+0.5) blows a guy out, picks off a LB. Other guy is able to stick between Runyan(-0.5) and Bredeson(-0.5); he doesn’t do a ton but does prevent a release to the other LB. Patterson(-0.5) has an over hang CB at 8 yards coming down and goes down; he’s just avoiding damage here instead of getting yards.
M26	2	6	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 even	7	Pass	Bubble screen	Bell	17
PNP one way, Patterson aborts it to throw the bubble. This is vintage RR stuff. Nobody runs at this on the snap. Black(+2) gets a complete cut on a slot DB; Collins(+0.5) has a guy in cover 3 bailing but blocks him a long while. Bell(+0.5) jukes a guy for a few more at the end of the run. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1)
M43	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Deep out	Collins	Inc
All day for Patterson; find Collins for a first down; throws it way low; Collins can’t dig it out. (IN, 1, protection 2/2)
M43	2	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Bubble screen	DPJ	6
Blitz off the corner; M throws the bubble at that blitz. Black(-1) gets plenty of warning on this blitz and almost entirely airballs on the S coming down to replace the slot LB. DPJ has to bend around this guy and goes direct to Johnson’s block(+0.5), which is good but DPJ’s on the sideline now and just gets pushed out. (CA, 3, screen, RPS +1)
M49	3	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Run	Split zone	Haskins	1
PSU times the snap. This time it’s at 2 seconds so no check possible but also MLB is flying flat out on the snap up the middle. Ruiz has no chance. Onwenu(+1) actually does a great job to see this and do something about Mr Hammerpants, allowing Haskins to cut behind him and get one instead of -3. RPS -2.
Drive Notes: Punt, 7-21, 5 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M35	1	10	Shotgun twins	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	14
Bubble fake. PSU ends up spending 3 guys on 2 M WRs, so when this works it works for a first down and not 6. Runyan(+2) gets a chip on a DE; he then gets to LB; All(+2) does a great job to get around a DE lined up inside of him and seal him out with the chip. Charbonnet(+1) hits the gap and runs over an S for some bonus yards. RPS +1.
M49	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 under	7	Run	Pin and pull	Charbonnet	3
Eubanks(+1) fires the playside end in so this can do some things. Onwenu pulls around; LB shoots inside of him hard. Onwenu doesn't touch the guy but all he can do is make a futile arm tackle attempt, so push. Onwenu(+0.5) then cuts off a guy stunting past Mayfield for a lane. With LB gone this could be a big gain for a second but Bredeson(-1) got shed so fast on the backside that his guy is able to loop around and tackle from behind. At least 6-8 without that.
O48	2	7	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel over	6	Pass	Hitch	Eubanks	15
Easy rhythm throw as Eubanks sets up in an area just vacated by a blitzer and Patterson gets it out on time. (CA, 3, protection 1/1) RPS +1.
O37	1	10	Shotgun trips TE	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	PA throwaway	N/A	Inc
Bah this works if it’s a run but it is a PA all the way, no RPO. MLB blitzes, Runyan does what he can but guy is going straight upfield outside of him on PA. He’s containing immediately and no one is open downfield, Patterson boots OOB. (PR, N/A, protection N/A, RPS -1)
O37	2	10	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	Dime over	5	Pass	Hitch	DPJ	8 (Pen offset)
PSU jumps. Hitch for eight is probably turned down anyway; refs(-1) wipe it out for DPJ fending off a jam and then turning around. FFS. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O37	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Drag	Collins	9
Four man rush; PSU backing out just before the snap; Patterson finds the rhythm throw to Collins for good yardage and a near conversion. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O28	3	1	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	?	7	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	10
Tempo. Instincts take over, unblocked end goes upfield and then goes to Patterson. He claps in the middle of this play because he knows he screwed up. Give. Onwenu(+1) and Mayfield(+1) obliterate a DT and Onwenu gets to a second level block, conversion. Also more. Charbonnet(+0.5) doesn’t go down early and gets the rugby scrum for a few more. RPS +1.
O18	1	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	6
Passive from PSU and OL creates a gap. Onwenu(+1) and Ruiz(+1) club a DT with Onwenu getting to the second level. Fairly meh from Bredeson(-0.5); he gives a yard on his initial hit on backside DT and that guy is able to control and flow down the line to tackle, albeit after a good gain because Bredeson did delay him.
O12	2	4	Shotgun trips	1	0	4	Okie one	6	Run	Belly	Charbonnet	12
Tempo. PSU brings both LBs to LOS for maximum aggressive look; one S is put over the trips and that’s press man over there so bubble action draws all three guys. M doesn’t get timed on snap so some ability to adjust, DE moves upfield instead of shuffling, give, Runyan(+1) shoves a guy down the line, Charbonnet(+0.5) has a pretty easy read and makes it but is impressively fast doing so. RPS +1.
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-21, 1 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
M25	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6	Pass	Comeback	Collins	13
Patterson has to exit the pocket as Mayfield(-1) allows his guy inside of him on a stunt; Onwenu does pick up his half and the guy only sort of beat Mayfield so Patterson can exit without much fuss. He finds Collins on a comeback at the sticks. (CA+, 3, protection ½)
M38	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	6.5	Pass	Slant	Eubanks	15
Unclear if Patterson is trying to sell a QB draw before a pop pass or just rescinding a decision to bug out. Since there have been no QB runs so far, probably the latter. Bredeson(-2) gets beat as LB threatening blitz over Ruiz backs out and Ruiz can’t get over to that guy’s inside move fast enough to help; Patterson stops and throws at a well covered Eubanks; throw is a little behind and batted, nearly intercepted, before Eubanks catches the carom. (MA, 2, protection 0/2)
O47	1	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over SAM	6	Run	Pin and pull	Haskins	3
Orbit motion, PNP the other way. Almost a big play; PSU stunts to the playside; Eubanks(+0.5) blocks the DE who’s moving away anyway and vaguely obstructs the DT sliding outside; Haskins can get by. Onwenu(+0.5) pulls into space and goes for a kickout on the first thing he sees, which is a LB widening out. That guy goes by, never turn upfield, Onwenu then turns attention to the CB. Ruiz(-1) does have this guy who went by Onwenu but I’m pretty sure his job is to go inside of Onwenu and find something else, which would be the safety who rotated down presnap. If Ruiz gets a block on this guy, big play, because there were two guys outside of Onwenu. Instead, three.
O44	2	7	Shotgun 4-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Run	QB draw	Patterson	3
Stunt threatens to blow this up but Onwenu(+1) reads it and cuts the DE off. Gap up the middle that Patterson doesn’t trust. Bredeson got a chip from Ruiz and his guy is able to stand him up and might be able to fall off this block and tackle. Patterson(-1) should threaten out and then cut back in or just go right off Onwenu’s butt. Good chance he rips through this hole to convert; instead he bails for the sideline and gets a modest gain before S tracks him down.
O41	3	4	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Bubble screen	Bell	35
This is not a good look for a bubble with a guy head up on Bell at 6 yards and press on the outside; PSU puts the other 6 guys at the LOS; Patterson throws the bubble instead of the run play. Bell(+3) gets a guy charging at him and jukes him; Black(+2) puts his CB on the ground; DPJ(+0.5) does enough on his guy, and M gets a big play out of nothing. (CA, 3, screen, RPS -1)
O6	1	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-4 over	8	Pass	Corner	Black	Inc (Pen +3)
Six guys sent and Patterson gets antsy, throwing off his back foot and early; M picks it up. Black doesn’t really have time to get to the corner of the endzone and the ball falls to the turf. He got facemasked, drawing a call. (MA, 0, protection 1/1)
O3	1	G	Pistol twins twin TE	1	2	2	Goal line	9	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	2
Looks bad for TEs but they’re in a tough spot with a blitzer coming down off the edge with momentum. Eubanks(+1) hits that guy and shoves him inside even if he gets penetration. All(-1) has tough wing TE duty that almost never goes well where he’s blocking down on a guy slanting and can’t do it. I don’t get why they don’t put both TEs on the line for this even if they’re on the same side of the line, Eubanks is covered up. Charbonnet(+1) meets this DE a yard in the backfield and beefs him for three yards.
O1	2	G	Shotgun tight	1	2	2	Goal line	11	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	-1
They do it again! Both TEs are wing TEs, Eubanks has 0 shot at a DE slanting inside, who makes a pile at the LOS, and then the LB running direct at Charbonnet finishes. This is not a pull on the goal line with a safety on the LOS tasked with QB. This is just a bad idea. RPS -1.
O1	3	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	10	Run	Down G	Haskins	1
Feels like Harbaugh pulled the ripcord here. Eubanks(+1) fires in an end; Mason(+1) pounds a LB; Bredeson(+1) crunches a LB and the only reason this isn’t a walk in TD is a LB coming from the backside who Mayfield(-1) didn't get off the LOS. He’s able to tackle from behind.
O1	4	G	I-Form Big	2	2	1	Goal line	10	Run	QB sneak	Patterson	1
They get it? Probably?
Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-28, 8 min 4th Q
Ln	Dn	Ds	O Form	RB	TE	WR	D Form	Box	Type	Play	Player	Yards
O47	1	10	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	6.5	Pass	Comeback	Collins	14
Simple read for Patterson as the DB shows he’s bailing in zone, turning his hips inside presnap. Collins duly threatens deep and cuts it back, and Patterson gets it out on time. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O33	1	10	Shotgun twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	Throwaway	N/A	Inc
Oof, this is a flare screen for Black at PSU when they have a safety hanging at four yards to the field and an overhang LB. S blitzes, Collins has no shot at a block, Patterson aborts a sure TFL. M attaches a pin and pull to this that looks like it will break big, too. Yeesh. (BR, N/A, RPO)
O33	2	10	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel under	7	Pass	Hitch	Collins	Inc
Press this time; Collins drives it and breaks back; CB grabs and pulls Collins upfield so he can get in a PBU, refs -3. FFS. (CA, 0, protection 1/1)
O33	3	10	Shotgun trips	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Out	DPJ	6
Four man rush picked up, O and D mutually agree to a fourth and 4. (CA, 3, protection 1/1)
O27	4	4	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	Nickel even	6	Pass	Drag	Collins	6
Patterson pumps deep, no WRs looking at him, dunno. Mayfield sort of gets beat around the corner but does push his guy well upfield; Patterson has to move but when he does he’s got a big open space to move into. He does and hits Collins on a drag that opened up as Eubanks dragged a zone defender with him a little. (CA, 3, protection 2/2)
O21	1	10	Pistol twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	7	Run	Zone stretch	Charbonnet	3
LBs to field come up to blitz. They don’t quite time the snap and have to stop, which leaves two guys in off coverage to the field, so if there’s a bubble on that’s very much the read. Instead a run into a fairly difficult front. Big blitz from the field means slant away into this. M about breaks this. Ruiz(+1) sees no LBs and stops; he gets shoved to the ground but it’s enough for Charbonnet to find a crease with Onwenu(+1) shoving Windsor out of the lane. Charbonnet(-1) runs through the arm tackle of a LB when a DE grabs him; Eubanks couldn’t do anything with him, though he’s supposed to be force. Rule 1 on stretch is bounce if it’s there and it is.
O18	2	7	Shotgun quads	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Run	QB split zone	Patterson	1
Quads bubble formation thing from earlier. This has a good shot at working but Mayfield(-1) gets beat clean to the inside and Patterson has to bend around that. Onwenu(-0.5) and Ruiz(-0.5) get a little movement on Windsor but no control; when Onwenu pops off for the CB Windsor thunks Patterson.
O17	3	6	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 over	7	Pass	TE cross	All	10
Tampa 2 from PSU with a drag right in the spot the LB vacates to get deep. Easy. (CA, 3, protection 1/1, RPS +1)
O7	1	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 even	6.5	Run	Inside zone	Charbonnet	1
All(-3) thinks this is split zone and runs the wrong way, LB direct to Charbonnet(+1), who dodges the guy and gets back to the LOS.
O6	2	G	Shotgun twins twin TE	1	2	2	4-3 even	6.5	Run	QB pin and pull	Patterson	3
Another blitz off the edge with a guy going full steam on the snap, RPS -1. This kills a play that’s looking okay because Patterson can’t afford the patience necessary to set up his blocks. Bredeson(+1) gets around a block by All(-0.5) that’s in the backfield a little and Patterson could cut inside this if he wasn’t getting chased; instead he has to break it out to get what he can. Eubanks(+1) got enough of a guy downfield.
O3	3	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Rollout improv	DPJ	Inc
Man it looks like he’s got a window for Collins, who has a step on his guy nd a little bit of a gap to a zone defender in front of this. Buttzone this throw and it might be good; he doesn’t pull the trigger. Charging LB, dodges that guy. Hucks it up in endzone. Dangerous, but gotta take the shot. (MA, 0, protection N/A)
O3	4	G	Shotgun 3-wide	1	1	3	4-3 over	7	Pass	Hitch	Bell	Inc
First read is a fade to Collins but Patterson comes off it for unknown reasons, kind of seems RZ fade is just a thin g you throw. Runyan(-1) beat around the corner a bit for some pressure; Patterson moves up and finds Bell. Welp. (CA+, 3, protection ½)
Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, EOG for O.

I feel… okay about that?

Decent, yeah.

Good?

Well… uh. Good-ish? Drives:

• two three and outs, one first-down-and-screen-INT
• four drives of 24-40 yards ending in punts and a 58 yard FGA
• 50 yards, TO on downs when refs ignore PI
• 44 yards, TO on downs w/ Bell drop
• 65 yard TD drive, 75 yard TD drive, 75 yard TD drive

That's not bad against a pretty good defense. It is frustrating that five different drives ended up scoring no points because of officiating incompetence, an endzone drop, and three decisions to not go for it.

They ran your play!

i don't want to be smug

Awwww, it's cute, you think you know things!

It is purely a coincidence that Michigan did some things that I thought they should do. It was not a coincidence that the offense felt less like hitting yourself in the head with a board even while they hit themselves in the head with a board quite a lot.

Foremost amongst these were a bunch of bubble screens. Hooray! For the tl;dr of this section here is the estimable Clay Davis, please substitute "yards" for the word "money."

For the record, seven bubbles went 35, 17, 12, 7, 6, 0, and –3 yards. That's an average of 10.7 each, and while Bell dodged a guy in the backfield for 35, Michigan should have had good gains on two other bubbles but for execution errors. On the DPJ drop Black inexplicably waits for the MLB instead of getting a safety…

WR #7 on LOS

…and also DPJ drops it. That should have been a modestly successful event. On the Black TFL Nico Collins ran a route on a play where PSU blitzed and getting that CB is at least a first down. (Like everything else on the team these are wobbly because Michigan consistently executes nothing.) Call it even? Michigan got about the yards they should have gotten based on alignment. That was a first down per attempt.

They also opened up the run game. Charbonnet got a chunk here as PSU spent three guys on two WRs—probably a bust but busts happen when you get guys thinking about the plays you're not running:

Charbonnet bursts through the backside of the play and instead of six yards he gets a chunk. Tactical W.

There were further opportunities, as well, but Michigan, consistent execution, etc.

Were these things genuine post-snap reads?

Probably? This unknowable. Way back in the day I watched a Calvin Magee—then RichRod's OC—coaching clinic in which he talked about the role of the bubble in the Slaton/White WVU offenses. At one point he mentioned that he likes to "let the quarterback read it out" but Rodriguez often had the QB just run one or the other based on a sideline check after the D aligned. Michigan clearly had runs attached to the bubbles and bubbles attached to runs, but I don't know whether Patterson was deciding on which half of the play immediately presnap.

Some of the bubbles—the ones out of quads mostly—I think are just baked in. The others… given the lack of sideline checks I kind of think he was calling the shots, and there were some misreads in there. The Bell chunk play was one of them; this is not a presnap look that should get a bubble.

Press with a S on the slot six yards off. Bell made a Play, but I like Plays being made three yards downfield instead of three yards in the backfield.

There were also a couple head-smackers on Michigan's final drive. This is a flare screen attached to a run and I don't know how you decide to throw this:

That's a safety at four yards to the field with no blocker and that run looks like it's going to be successful—M has four guys to the left of C, PSU has four guys, and the FS turns his hips to the field before the mesh point. Michigan continues to be tantalizingly close to big plays on the ground.

A couple plays later PSU shot their LBs to the LOS and Michigan ran a three-yard stretch instead of aborting into a bubble when presented with this:

So there is room for improvement.

I'm going to have to revamp UFR some to account for this stuff: I'll introduce RPO to the "type" column that's currently run/pass and try to track reads as a stat.

Did it open up the run game?

I mean some.

But we rushed for 3.4 YPC?

Well, I swear Ed Warinner has to be eating nails for breakfast these days. Michigan is running arc keeper after arc keeper that should be big chunk gains and watching it peter out into little or nothing. This is not always on Patterson. Michigan's first snap should have been a big gain, but Schoonmaker decided to pass up Micah Parsons and this was a mistake. I sympathize with Schoonmaker some, because it looks for all the world like Parsons is done:

TE #86 to bottom

This is actually an RPS minus since the CB blitz is a perfect call to whack this play but once Patterson makes that guy miss Michigan has this blocked to the safety. But because Schoonmaker got ambitious, two yards.

On the other hand:

Late in this game Michigan started calling straight-up QB runs; late in games last year there was a ton of arc. I bet they'd love to keep running arc, but they just cannot get Patterson to keep the ball.

give

This one sees M block the DE and has All shoot down to the LB level to cut off interior pursuit and appears to be outright designed for a keep:

TE #83

Give. It is what it is.

Any other tactical nuggets?

Tempo!

Michigan did go tempo a couple of times in this game and got instinctual reactions from DEs for first downs. They cut to this play late—who is prepared for Michigan to go tempo?—but try to keep your focus on the PSU DE to the top of the screen:

That guy goes straight upfield, easy give read, chunk run.  That DE claps in frustration mid-play because he knows he screwed up.

The same thing happened on Charbonnet's second touchdown, which snaps with 24 seconds on the playclock and saw an unblocked DE play a belly like it's 2009:

PSU DE to bottom

Tempo is good, Michigan needs more tempo, more tempo will help Michigan defend tempo, I don't think this is ever going to be something Michigan is good at. They should play their games against the MTSUs and Rutgers of the world at #chaosteam Indiana pace.

Is this speed in space poking through?

Maybe? About damn time.

I was gonna say that.

Well, then.

Now I'll just repeat: 3.4 YPC.

So about the OL: remember that slightly more than half the grading goes in the "protection" row and Michigan was beyond outstanding. An 86% is basically what they did against Rutgers and Illinois; PSU came in with the top sack D in the country. The one sack PSU got was when Patterson bailed on a pocket he had more time in.

Disclaimer exists because they  got beat up on the ground:

Offensive Line
Player	+	-	Total	Notes
Runyan	4	5.5	-1.5	Got ditched a couple times early.
Bredeson	4.5	2.5	2	Not a lot of movement.
Ruiz	6.5	5.5	1	Pin and pull decisions not great.
Onwenu	11	3	8	The usual.
Mayfield	3	4.5	-1.5	Also a few pass pro minuses.
McKeon				DNP
Eubanks	7.5(1)	8	-0.5	the (1) was for a run after the catch and is not in blocking total
All	4	4.5	-0.5	good day and then gave it all back by running wrong way in RZ
Mason	1.5		1.5	DNC
Schoonmaker		4	-4	Pulled for day after a few early errors.
TOTAL	41	37.5	53%	Oof.
Backs
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Patterson	4	7.5	-2.5	missed keep x3
McCaffrey				DNP
Charbonnet	7	1	6	Bailed OL out some.
Turner				DNP
Wilson				DNP
Milton
Haskins	2.5	1	1.5	okay
TOTAL	13.5	9.5	4	shrugs
Receivers
Player	+	-	T	Notes
DPJ	1.5	1	0.5
Collins	2.5	3	-0.5	one big bubble error
Black	5	3	2	crushed a guy on Bell bubble
Bell	4.5	1.5	3	go go gadget 35 yarder
Johnson	0.5
Sainristil
Jackson
TOTAL	14	8.5	5.5	Bubbles make for actual numbers here.
Metrics
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Protection	55	9	86%	Mayfield –3, Bredeson –2, Runyan –1, Charbonnet –1, Ruiz –1, TEAM -1
RPS	16	16	0	Bubble vs timing snaps.

 

This was the #1 rush D in the country by a number of metrics coming in and Michigan managed to get to 141 yards. Is it beyond weird that this is the #1 rush D in the country after last year? Not really. Neither DE stood out as a WDE at all, an holy God Micah Parsons is insane.

There were various reasons Michigan didn't get a lot done on the ground, but yes this was the worst blocking performance of the year and the Warinner era. This is a six-and-a-half man box w here Michigan has blockers for everyone and nobody on the interior line gets anything done:

RG, C, LG

Other stuff that looked bad wasn't really on them. PSU had a DE stunt that took their guy directly to Haskins a few plays after the above; tip your RPS hat and move on. And geez, the snaps.

The snaps?

Michigan ate it on a half dozen different plays where I didn't give out many, or any, blocking minuses because guys ripping at the LOS gave Michigan no chance.

PSU's defense came out looking very passive and then they'd fling guys at the LOS as the snap approached. Too many times they got to rip at the LOS full-bore. The third and one failure on the first drive was a good example. A LB blows through Eubanks here, and while Eubanks duly got his minus this is rough:

TE #82 to bottom inline

He takes one false step and that's it. He's more likely to take that false step because he hasn't had time to process the fact the LB is coming, and the false step is more deadly because the LB is already moving to the LOS at a good clip.

This was a very weird pull from Patterson since nobody appears to be read and seems like a reaction to the fact the back is absolutely doomed:

That snap was with 11 on the playclock, they had some time to get them to tip it.

The third and four before Michigan's extremely questionable punt sees Ruiz get zipped through but he's got no shot. He gets his head up after the snap because Michigan's down to two on the clock, takes one step to the DT he should step to if the situation is the same as it was a nanosecond ago, and then that LB is breathing down his neck:

C #51

That's impossible to deal with. Onwenu actually got a plus here for coming off his guy and allowing Haskins to cut behind him instead of eating a TFL.

It wasn't every snap; Michigan did have some dual-claps and checks to the sideline, and there were a few different incidents where PSU revealed their intentions but had to slow down. Michigan did abort into those bubbles sometimes, but they gave back all their RPS from that on timed-up blitzes.

I see Eubanks is Kid Icarus this week.

I tried to warn that Illinois was the JV team and indeed Eubanks came back to earth pretty hard. I was expecting him to zip back to zero or slightly above; this was a little under that, and it was only a late charge that got him back to even-ish (in a system that wants you to be 2:1 good). Can't let a DE inside of you cross your face on a pin and pull:

TE #82 to bottom

I thought Mayfield might want to chip in a bit before releasing on this stretch play but mostly it's just woof:

TE #82 to bottom

The run offense on these pin and pulls is incredibly dependent on getting a TE block, and when it happened Michigan got chunks. It did happen!

TE #82 to bottom

Just not enough. I may be coming around on sticking All under a pizza bench press and seeing if he can be the blocking TE Michigan hasn't had since I've been doing this.

One thing I'm not putting on the TEs is the repeated Michigan attempts to have them cut off DL slanting under them when they're coming from off the LOS position. That's hard enough to do on the LOS and I flatly do not understand why Michigan had back to back plays where they had a wing TE on the goal line.

TE #82 to bottom

Eubanks has zero shot at making that block.

That might have been the last straw for Harbaugh; the next play was an I-Form on which Haskins would have scored easily if Mayfield had cut off Parsons on the backside:

I'm not a fan of shotgun that close to the LOS.

We seem to be taking a long time to get to most of the offense?

Right, that. Shea:

SHEA PATTERSON

	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
MTSU	2	14(3)	3		4	3(1)		1	2	4(2)*	2*		70%	-
Army	1	17(2)+++	1		1	3		-	6*	5	-		61%	-
Wisconsin	2	15(3)++	1		7	7		1*	2*	5	2*		63%	-
Rutgers	4	11(1)+	1		1	5		-	1*	3	-		79%	-
Iowa	-	15(4)+	2		2	1		-	4**	3	3*		56%	-
Illinois	-	10+	1		-	3		-	1	7	1(1)		58%	-
Penn State	2	25(5)++	2		1	8(2)		-	3	7(1)	2		69%	-

I was excessively negative on WTKA this morning. Patterson did step up to a level he has not hit this year in a very tough road environment. Zero starred negatives. The interception was not his fault, but a combination of bad blocking, bad timing, and Charbonnet stumbling over one of his own OL. If Charbonnet doesn't stumble he's just getting blown up for zero yards.

Let's start with the good: this was a Patterson more in command than we've seen this year. He had more throws where he got to his drop and the throw came out without a hitch—this is generally referred to as a rhythm throw—in this game than he had all season. Herbstreit was on point after this chunk to Eubanks:

"He's a different quarterback when he does that," and indeed he is the five star when he sees the opportunity.

While Patterson's pocket presence was still a little iffy there were some nice plays mixed in, none more so than Michigan's first third down of the day. This ability to drift away from pressure to buy time and then slot the ball in is not something we've seen much this year:

Maaan I thought that was gonna happen all the time. It has not.

Did they, like, change anything?

One reason this felt a lot better is that Michigan emphasized one-on-one throws to the outside and quick throws underneath the first level of PSU's zone. Non-improvised downfield passes by general category:

• Flanker 1v1s: 10 (3 comebacks, 4 hitches, 3 fly routes)
• Slot sideline routes: 8 (1 corner, 2 deep outs, 3 outs, 1 fade, 1 Y cross)
• Shallows: 13 (3 drags, 2 dumpoffs, 2 hitch, 6 slants)
• Deep(ish) middle: 2 (1 dig, 1 skinny post)

Various of these have deep middle components that didn't get thrown, of course, but there was a clear emphasis on quick throws Patterson could make with some confidence, often by making a presnap read. This Collins comeback features a CB who is telling Patterson this route will be open before the snap by turning his hips inside:

PSU CB #29 to bottom

Not a coincidence that's zipped out there before Collins is in his break. Ditto the deep out to Peoples-Jones, which again gets a cover 3 corner with his hips turned inside and is a pretty easy thing for Patterson to see and have confidence in a dart of a throw:

If he knows what to do he is excellent.

BUT!

jesus dude

I just like saying BUT really loud, like Stephen A Smith about the Holocaust loud, and I know you're going to say it and I am beating you to the punch.

Okay fine: but his error rate was still pretty high, and down to the usual things. We have had our ritual complaint about the 40-50 yards set on fire by bad give decisions. He did offset that a bit with two nice scrambles.

Patterson got outstanding protection in this game and paid some of it off. He also had some plays where he just got antsy in the pocket and hurt Michigan badly. This out late in the first half was a potential conversion into field goal range; Patterson doesn't trust his protection and throws off his back foot, dragging Bell upfield and away from the sticks:

If that's caught Bell is going to have to do something fancy to convert.

Later, another third and medium saw Charbonnet get across the formation to pick up a blitzer, but Patterson bugs out:

It's mostly the stuff on the ground, though. It seems like every game there's some incident where Eubanks is looking around bug-eyed at all the grass in front of him while someone trundles into the Somme.

Are we accounting for the many drops though? What about the drops?

In my opinion there were only three true drops in this game. One is above, the Bell out that's getting 3 yards on third and six. One was DPJ on that bubble that didn't look like it was going anywhere, and one was the Bell event at the end of the game. The other two DPJ drop-type substances were the safety blasting the ball out. I had a conversation with Sam Webb about this play on WTKA:

This is the "nobody open!" play on which DPJ is screamingly wide open. If Patterson gets this ball out on time there is no safety punching the ball out. DPJ is catching that at 15-20 yards and turning upfield for a big chunk of YAC. Instead DPJ is put in a situation where he catches the ball and secures it and at the same time the safety makes a nice play to punch the ball out.

That's not a drop. Here's the chart.

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

	THIS WEEK					SEASON
Player	0	1	2	3		0	1	2	3
DPJ	2	0/1		5/6		5	0/3	4/4	14/15
Collins	1	1/2	0/1	6/6		1	2/4	4/5	14/15
Black	4			1/1		9	1/3	1/3	14/15
Bell	1	0/1		3/5		8	2/6	3/7	18/20
Johnson						1	1/1	1/1
Sainristil						2			1/1
Jackson		0/1					0/1		1/1
McKeon						4	0/1	1/2	5/5
Eubanks			2/2	2/2		4	0/2	5/6	13/14
All				1/1					1/1
Schoonmaker									2/2
Charbonnet	1			1/1		4		0/1	7/7
Turner						1			3/3
Mason							0/1
Haskins									1/1

Routes: DPJ +, Collins +, Eubanks +

Hooray for a bunch of Collins targets. Dude ripped off a 30 yard hitch where the CB barely touched him, and was only stopped on the outside with blatant interference…

…and picked up 30 yards by putting the CB on the deck:

He also had the OPI. I do get frustrated with him because it seems there's one play in every game where he blows a block—like, comes nowhere near making a block. Dude is elite and should be targeted this much in every game.

Haskins opinions?

Haskins is growing on me a little. There were multiple times in this game where he was able to bull downfield for 3-4 improbable yards after contact, and he showed a little jump in the hole when Michigan gave him room. I like little decisive cuts to get through the line since they tend to put linebackers on the wrong side of blocks:

He did get chopped down for 0 YAC on that early third and one, and that's frustrating.

Heroes?

Collins, Charbonnet, Onwenu. Pass protection. Constraint plays.

Maybe not so heroic?

Most of the run blocking, especially from tackles and tight ends. The snap count.

What does it mean for Notre Dame and Beyond?

Pass blocking should go better than last year. Truly outstanding performance; Mayfield tends to get got a little bit but when he does it's always a –1 where he's pushing a guy past. Otherwise very organized and surviving against top end rushers despite some issues at tackle.

There was some speed in space. Michigan can't dump that many bubbles out against foes down the road but if they can get better at IDing when to abort they'll either get chunks of yards dodging heavy blitzes or slice that out of the playbook. Or get some opportunities for double moves for downfield chunks.

You have physically dominant WRs who can win one on one outside. M used them. Patterson doesn't have a huge arm and may have slight struggles to the field against top end opponents, but that's just OSU at this point and maybe ND but eh… no. Simple one on one routes are good for this team.

Need some more snap variations. Pretty frustrating to see M go offsides four times and PSU time up snaps like that. Can't really hard count on the road, but some checks to the sideline would be nice.

Still bumpy execution. Pin and pull stuff has targeting issues; bubbles have targeting issues; again M is trying to piece it together midseason.

Patterson is good if he knows what he's doing. Probably not going to run the ball much though.