Michigan: explosive [Bryan Fuller]

Unverified Voracity Enjoys Dabo Froth Comment Count

Brian December 17th, 2021 at 12:11 PM

Sponsor note. Maybe you've noticed something: Ohio State fans complaining endlessly about minor digs. They're soft. Well, maybe that's a business opportunity. You could peddle OSU-branded fainting couches, opium, and handkerchiefs. Wait… wait, what's that sound?

hoeglaw_thumb

That's Richard Hoeg informing us that opium isn't legal and we can't sell it! Thanks, Richard. I bet he knows a bunch of other stuff about forming your own small business, and can be employed to make sure you don't run into any hiccups like being arrested for selling opium. Which, to be clear, you should not do. The fainting couches, though? That's gold.

Leveling out. The top of college football's recruiting rankings doesn't look a whole lot different than they did before NIL came into play, but with the #1 recruit in America signing up for an HBCU and some weird stuff happening in the top twenty—hello Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana—there's clearly some impact. Also, Clemson has just 13 guys committed, ranks 17th, and saw both coordinators take head jobs this offseason. Dabo's mad:

"It's crazy, it's really sad to be honest with you," Swinney said Wednesday at Clemson's signing day. "There's right around 2,000 kids in the portal and most of them don't have anywhere to go. There's so much tampering going on and so many adults manipulating young people. It's sad, but you know, it it what it is from that standpoint. You've got a lot of young people that ... there's a time and a place, but most of the kids are in there when they shouldn't be in there.

"Some are and some shouldn't. Some of the lessons we're teaching young people I don't think is going to benefit them well as they move through their life. It is something everybody has to manage and deal with. There's no consequences. There's no rules."

You could do worse than living your life by the mantra "would Dabo Swinney complain about this?" I will be fascinated to see what happens to Clemson now that Swinney has to find new coordinators and recruit in a world where it's all perfectly legal.

[After the JUMP: boom!]

Uh, right. Michigan… explosive?

Michigan's offense has faced three opponent defenses rated among the top 10 in opponent adjusted efficiency over the course of the season. They scored 38 points against Wisconsin (DFEI No. 3) on October 2. It remains their worst yards per play game of the season (5.04), but Michigan did showcase its big-play capability with a 34-yard touchdown pass to open up a 7-0 lead and a 56-yard touchdown pass to cap that game in the fourth quarter against the Badgers. On November 13 against Penn State (DFEI No. 8), Michigan was only able to muster 21 points on offense, but again made chunk plays matter most, including a 47-yard touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter to grab the lead and secure the win. It was the same big-play offense that speared victory against another very efficient defense in Iowa (DFEI No. 4) in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Michigan leads the nation in plays of 50 or more yards this season, totaling 17 such explosive plays in 13 games. Ten of those plays went for 60 or more yards, and six of them went for 70 or more yards.

That's from Brian Fremeau's look at the Georgia-Michigan game. Georgia has a generational defense, except they gave up 41 to Alabama in their most recent game and haven't really played anyone else with a top-tier offense. Not that Michigan's is exactly top-tier.

Florence, Y'All. As someone who's driven by the Y'all thing on I-75 repeatedly, Wil Warren's take on the Big Ten championship hit close to home:

It was maybe 90 minutes into the drive home from Indianapolis on Sunday morning when I saw this:

And I smiled. I don’t know why I smiled; I guess you see something you saw a bunch when you were little for the first time in years and you smile. It was the same reason I left the hotel that morning after my dad yelled “WHO’S GOT IT BETTER THAN US?” as he left the parking lot and I nearly cried. I smiled then. I smile now writing this. I might smile every time I think about this water tower, because it was a virtual halfway point of the drive from Middle Tennessee to suburban Detroit every time we made that drive when I was younger.

Michigan drives eyeballs. Our weird, until-recently becursed program sure has a lot of people checking it out:

…the game ended up being this year’s most-watched college football game, drawing nearly 16 million viewers to Fox for the late-season rivalry game. While the ranking isn’t surprising given how it usually finds itself up here, the sheer number of people watching was quite the bump from recent games. … It is also worth noting that the game it usurped to top that list was Michigan State’s win over Michigan earlier in the season, which drew 9.289 million viewers, also on Fox.

This may mean more money for the conference when it renegotiates its deals, which is an extremely mixed bag. More money means more ability to retain important coaches… and also more got-darned commercials.

Good news? We've talked about how cursed Nebraska was this year a couple times. SP+, our preferred fancystat, has them ranked essentially on par with 10-2 MSU. Nebraska… did not go 10-2. They are in fact the second-worst team since Connelly's been doing this in difference between wins and his "second order wins"—a stat that looks at all the things in a football game and says you were X likely to win it—since 2005.  Good(?) news for Nebraska fans:

Biggest negative difference between win total and second-order wins from 2005 to 2021

1. 2009 North Texas (-4.3: 2-10 record, 6.3 second-order wins)
2. 2021 Nebraska
3. 2009 Arizona State (-3.5: 4-8, 7.5)
4. 2007 SMU (-3.5: 1-11, 4.5)
5. 2010 San Jose State (-3.4: 1-12, 4.4)
6. 2014 Pitt (-3.3: 6-7, 9.3)
7. 2016 Notre Dame (-3.3: 4-8, 7.3)
8. 2005 UAB (-3.2: 5-6, 8.2)
9. 2018 Texas State (-3.1: 3-9, 6.1)
10. 2013 Temple (-3.0: 2-10, 5.0)

Among these nine non-Nebraska teams are three that improved by at least four wins the next year (2011 SJSU, 2017 Notre Dame and 2014 Temple). On average, teams that underachieve their second-order win total by at least 2.0 games one year see their win percentage improve by an average of 13.1 percentage points (about 1.6 wins in a 12-game season) the next.

The question mark above is that Nebraska's bounce-back from terrible luck should get them to about 5-7.

Meanwhile Michigan played three of the top ten teams who outperformed (ie, were lucky) this year: Northern Illinois, Iowa, and MSU. Brady Hoke and SDSU also made that list. The horseshoe is back.

WJC escapees. Jacob Truscott did not make team USA and Thomas Bordeleau missed out on camp because of a positive COVID test. Assuming that Bordeleau has a relatively mild case of COVID, and that was the reason he missed last weekend's OSU series, he should be available for the GLI games that five other Wolverines will miss.

In less salutary having-your-players news, NHL players may not be a part of the upcoming Olympics and various Michigan players are next up. Chris Peters projects the USA and Canada rosters in the event the NHL is off limits. He selects Kent Johnson and Owen Power for Canada and Brisson/Bordeleau/Beniers for team USA. That would see them miss at least a month. (Also: Strauss Mann is projected as the starting goalie and Steve Kampfer makes it.)

FWIW, if NHL players do participate the Athletic projects that Max Pacioretty, Dylan Larkin, Kyle Connor, Quinn Hughes, and Zach Werenski will go. Either way some Yost signage is getting updated.

Etc.: Duncan Robinson named the #5 basketball transfer of all time. PFF mock draft has Hutchinson #1 and Ojabo #20. Thoughts on the Tiger poem. You know, the one where he's out of the cage. The year of the punter. How Michigan landed Andrew Gentry. John Harbaugh on that two point thing we always talk about.

Comments

Blake Forum

December 17th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^

I say this with the humility of someone who is wrong a lot about college footbaw, and who was wrong about this offense (especially regarding how relying on the run game would work out) heading into this season: At a certain point we may have to look at data points such as "Michigan leads the nation in explosive plays, despite playing several good-to-great defenses" and conclude that Michigan may in fact have a "top-tier" offense this year, and that maybe this should lead all of us to re-frame how we analyze the offense and its Broyles-winner coordinator 

victors2000

December 17th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^

I would have been guessing for a long time at 'who leads the nation in explosive plays', but we do have a lot of highlight film plays to back it up. Thanks to coaches Harbaugh and Gattis, the DeathStar is becoming fully operational. Perhaps its the 'homer' in me, but I think we'll perform closer to Alabama than we will those guys who struggled to score a touchdown against Georgia.

dankbrogoblue

December 17th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^

That’s what I love about this team. We don’t have the hallmarks of a great offense in the modern era, which is essentially a 1st-round QB leading a relentless passing attack; so people look at our offense and think it can’t win major games.

We have a unique combo of ball control and explosiveness that could become a winning formula for years to come.

snarling wolverine

December 17th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^

Ever since the RichRod days this site has been fixated on the idea that a running spread with a Denard-type QB is the way to do it. Harbaugh doesn’t share that view of course, and when his offenses do well, it conflicts with the established MGoNarrative.  For some reason the narrative itself can never be called into question, so it is necessary to downplay whatever our “non-optimal” offense can achieve.

Mpfnfu Ford

December 17th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^

I don't agree with that. The Rich Rod/Urban-Pre Ryan Day run heavy option heavy spread offense stuff is out of vogue because you can't recruit top end WR talent unless you're showing them you can recruit the Trevor Lawrences of the world, and those guys ain't signing up for an offense where they carry the ball 20 times a game. Basically, that stuff is like what happened to the wishbone in the 80s and 90s: it was still just as effective, but if the only guys you can sign to run it are 2 and 3 stars, it doesn't matter how smart the schemes are, you're still going to lose.

We're in a transition period as a sport and everyone is kind of feeling around for what is "optimal football offense." The RPO has been such a big part of spread pass offenses the past few years, but it's reached a point where it's so ubiquitous that defenses have figured out how to solve it, especially at the NFL level. Michigan showed this year that those NFL tested defensive schemes work down at college too, so I kinda think we've seen the fall of the RPO as something you can build your whole offense out of.

Mpfnfu Ford

December 17th, 2021 at 4:10 PM ^

Yeah, and this stuff goes in phases right. Like, the secret weapon for being a dominant offense in the 80s and 90s was going pro style because you had a ton of HS throwing the ball around and not enough colleges accommodating that, so Miami/FSU/UCLA/Florida/BYU/Wazzu were able to become big programs despite having no previous history because they gave HS prospects from around the country a chance to play in offenses that let them throw it. Then everyone starts doing that and it stopped being an advantage for them and then spreads came around in the late 90s/early 2000s and disrupted everything again.

We're just in a unique time, and for once in seeming forever, Michigan seems on the cutting edge of where things are going. I am optimistic this can continue even when Cade is not here. 

Hail-Storm

December 17th, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^

Even more surprised with the loss of Bell early on.  But I don't think I've seen this type of speed at all the skill positions at Michigan in a long time or possibly ever.  The young recievers really stepped up and showed how fast they are.  Edwards is rediculously quick that every time he is on the field, the defense takes steps towards him.  Corum has always had elite speed to go along with Haskins punishing runs.

I don't think we will have to worry about SEC speed with this offense.  

The bigger miss for me was the defense.  I thought our middle of the line would be mediocre to bad, and the linebackers would be meh, and not be able to clean up much.  I didn't think our offense could keep up in a high scoring back and forth.  The defense has outperformed my expectations by miles.  I really give a lot of credit to Hutch, Ross, and Dax, being leaders at every level and to the coaches getting the center of the line to play well enough to let the edges reek havoc.  The corners have also done a great job of keeping enough coverage to cause havoc as well.  Really amazing what the team and coaches have done.

AlbanyBlue

December 18th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^

I echo Blake's sentiment here. I never saw the explosiveness -- or really even the aptitude -- of this offense coming pre-season, and I would never have predicted its evolution after seeing the second half of the Rutgers game. It just struck me as the typical "run into the wall and throw deep once in a while" Michigan offense we were familiar with. 

I'm glad it has evolved. I'm glad we're running less fake-read-no-read BS. I'm glad we're throwing to the backs. I'm glad we're throwing over the middle more. I'm glad we're continuing to be aggressive down the field. We will have to all of this and more to beat Georgia.

stephenrjking

December 17th, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^

That stat about 50+ yard plays is just insane. In a good way. 

I agree completely with Blake Forum (including the "wrong about this offense" part) above. Michigan achieved this not by becoming a high-flying Joe Brady LSU clone, but by getting better at the stuff Harbaugh likes doing. 

And that stat does suggest how this offense, if similar in some basic philosophical concepts, is different from other offenses we've seen at Michigan. Some of it has to do with the players. Some with the scheme. Some with the way the players are coached in the scheme (route-running and RB vision are two things that stand out). 

Lots of credit to spread around here. If you need me I'll be munching on a crow sandwich for lunch. 

El Jeffe

December 17th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^

Good thoughts from both you and Blake. My working theory of why the offense felt so not-explosive and why there was so much garment rending about Gattis is the following:

  1. It's really hard to quantify the whole idea of "landing body blows" (i.e., running into stacked boxes) and how that might set up "KO punches" (explosive plays). Like, it make sense that this would be true, but I don't really know how true it is, and it sucks to watch your RBs running into stacked boxes so it just gives you bad feels.
  2. Seth has opined several times that Cade is way better pre-snap than post-snap in terms of reads. So, we don't get hardly any zone reads where Cade keeps, and not even that many true RPOs. Rather, Cade gets to the line, figures out what he wants to do, sometimes checks into different plays, and we're off. Usually that works but sometimes it doesn't, and it's more fun to watch a QB guess right post-snap than to run whatever play the QB decided to run pre-snap, where the success or failure of the play gets credited to or blamed on the play caller (Gattis) and not nearly enough of the credit goes to Cade when it works.

Blake Forum

December 17th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^

I'm not an x's and o's guy, but my suspicion on some of the "fake zone read" stuff is that it's not really a zone read, but merely zone. Gattis hasn't been perfect this year--too much predictability on short-yardage was a bugaboo for much of the season. But I think we all need to throw out our various axioms about this offense, which were compiled in years when Michigan was very much not a national title contender. We in fact are a national title contender this year, and our offense is very very good

schreibee

December 17th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^

After the osu & B10 title games we're all believers now, but the biggest question mark many of us "non x's & o's" people have is WHY?!

Why is this formula suddenly working so much better? Not just better than '18 or '19 (forget '20 entirely), but better than earlier this season? 

What changed? Playcalling, or execution, or some of both?

I point to the single most important play of the season as a metaphorical weight lifting - after the All TD vs psu i feet like everyone just believed! Believed this team has the stuff to get it done, whatever it is that needs to get done!

The short yardage frustrations of earlier weren't alleviated by calling different plays - just by goddammit getting the 1 or 3 yds needed, usually by Haskins, often by just willing it to be so.

To those who are x's & o's people, is there something different the team is doing besides just executing everything better, with more precision, more confidence, more determination

Blake Forum

December 17th, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^

There are a few tangible answers that jump out to me (tho to be clear, I'm a big fan of intangibles like "grit," especially regarding this team): 

1) Execution of the offense is much crisper, starting with the ability to get to the line of scrimmage quickly, get the call in, and audible if necessary. Cade gets a lot of credit for that--one reason I like him so much

2) The personnel more completely fit a run-first offense than they have in the past, from mauling OL to elite running backs to receivers who are able and willing blockers 

3) This team simply runs a lot of different stuff, and they run it well. Can't be too many college teams, if any, who can execute this many run concepts and then add variations and wrinkles

4) There are trick plays that actually work, including the flea flicker, which is continually devastating because there's not a ton you can do to prepare for it against a team that runs the ball this well. Ditto the halfback pass

I'm sure there are other answers, but those seem to me to be some of the most obvious reasons this offense is working so much better than past Harbaugh offenses

4th phase

December 17th, 2021 at 1:53 PM ^

According to Doug Karsch, he asked Gattis about play calling for OSU and Gattis said something to the effect of "We've been setting that stuff up all season." So I know saving things for OSU is a trope on mgoblog at this point, but Gattis actually said that is what they tried to do this year.

schreibee

December 17th, 2021 at 3:06 PM ^

To the replies above, thanks for the observations.

Forum - I think grit works as well as any word to describe why 3rd & short is suddenly nearly a given. I've re-watched both the osu & Iowa games several times, and there are a dozen+ times where they just lined up, gave the rock to H2 & just bulldozed forward for the needed yards, and frequently much more!

And the more success they have, the better they do it the next time! There was a fateful 4th & 1 vs osu (in '19 I believe?) where Haskins was just stoned! This team won't be stopped! 

And to Phase - I don't think it's so much the plays they saved up for osu (as described in Seth's UFR) as plays that looked like plays they'd run before, but were misdirections. Specifically he pointed out a long pass to Wilson that was set up by a dozen prior McCarthy-Corum meshes. I think there were a few like that. And I feel very good there will be a few more vs Uga!!!

Eng1980

December 17th, 2021 at 9:04 PM ^

Guys (Dudes?),  most of us noted that Michigan was running simple vanilla whenever they could with Rutgers and Indiana being the most obvious examples.  There were a few miscues in key situations that kept some games close.  More than Pepcat days we all thought there was more in the tank.  Well for once it showed up.  Why?  Senior leadership (lots of seniors with one more chance to get it right) and good coaching.

AlbanyBlue

December 18th, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^

My just-an-observer takes about why the offense is gelling this year:

  • Most importantly, a high-level OL and excellent -- perhaps generational -- RBs. Thanks to Mike Hart and Sherrone Moore, and thanks to Jim for getting them in their roles.
  • Enough wrinkles, especially as the season went on, to loosen up the box, at least somewhat. Key on the run too much? OK, we'll throw the TE dig, or the seam route, or maybe to Edwards/Corum on a swing. This is a place we can still improve, and we need to do more of this. The whole idea of complementary / constraint plays is big if this offense wants to move forward.
  • It goes without saying that we have a QB that is skilled enough to punish teams for overplaying the run in the above ways.
  • High-level TE and WR blocking. This can turn a 2-yard into 6 yards or a 10-15 yard play into a big chunk or TD. This is one of the things that Harbaugh expects out of his TEs and WRs and we have it, especially in these later games. 

Hail-Storm

December 17th, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^

The impressive thing to me on the body blows, is that they were so successful.  I felt like most of the year, Michigan was running almost all positive yard plays. The line got push and Haskins fell forward, so Michigan played ahead of the sticks for most of the time.  This is critical, because Michigan has shown, it will continue this path too if it has to.  If you continue to give positive plays and long drives with punishing line play, We will run that until you stop it, or commit to stop it, at which point we have speed on the outside and inside to cause you trouble.  And players to take advantage of any mistake you make.  

Towards the end of the year, I think all teams respect the 3-4 yards enough that they have to play tight allowing Michigan to open it up earlier to some of the many dynamic players they have.  Smash mouth combined with speed.

michengin87

December 17th, 2021 at 3:54 PM ^

I'm really surprised that we haven't heard more about Mike.  I also wonder how much impact he had on the offensive strategy.  I remember him early in the year talking about playing to the various running backs' strengths. 

It was great to see plays that fit the player well and as a result the likelihood of success was so much higher.

Two more to go!

UM Indy

December 17th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^

I am by no means a Dabo fan or defender but if his underlying not very well stated point is that the current transfer rules/environment encourage kids to bail instead of sticking out a potentially challenging situation and persevering, then I somewhat agree with him. There is literally no downside to saying “fuck this I’m out” after losing a position battle.  

mp2

December 17th, 2021 at 12:57 PM ^

I think the downside is you don't land at a scholarship school, so suddenly you have to pay for college or drop out all together. I don't know how often this happens, but it probably does. Every kid who is good enough to jump up a level has to bump another one down a level. Those used to be taken care of by graduation or timing out without a degree. Now, you can bail after one or two years of college with no degree and not be able to get into a school on a scholarship. Going to the portal depends on if you want to play or be ensured get a degree for free. Kids bet on themselves; unfortunately, it doesn't always work out.

KBLOW

December 17th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^

Oh, please.

IMO, it takes often a lot more guts/fortitude/personal growth to leave what you would call a "challenging situation" than to stay b/c the world thinks there's some sort of nobility in "persevering" in face of an asshole head coach/crazy fan base/horrible education. And Dabo and Clemson fits all three of those things to a tee. Would you stay in a horrible relationship or work environment if you had a chance to better your life or make a lot more money just b/c it would mean you weren't persevering? 

Carpetbagger

December 17th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^

Every coach is an asshole when you don't get what you want.

Perseverance is valued for a reason. When you have 3-4 kids competing for one spot, it's pretty nice as a coach when the guy with the most quit in him self-selects after 1 or 2 years instead of waiting for him to use up his eligibility (or maybe grow up).

Sure, you get a few Joe Burrows and such, but as you are hearing, the vast majority just cheated themselves out of a 4 year degree and opened another roster spot for the incoming class.

Eng1980

December 17th, 2021 at 9:15 PM ^

100 PLAYERS, 75 scholarships.  Yes, on average, IT takes courage to leave but my experiènce is that hotheads (say 5 in 100) just get impatient and leave/quit.  The winning formula used to be 5-10 5th year seniors play their best ball (error free if not spectacular). Way too many kids are out of football after entering the portal.

michengin87

December 17th, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^

If you're a top 100 player, there is very little downside, but for the rest of the class, there is the very real risk that this kid just dropped their scholarship and there will be interest, but is there enough interest to use one of their precious scholarships on you?  This has already happened many times and some kids don't realize what they're risking.

Barry22

December 17th, 2021 at 10:00 PM ^

Should there by a downside? Unlike coaches who can fail upwards and be recycled ad infinitum, they have a very small window to live their dream. 

A better why to look at it might be, who's in a better position to make the decision on what's best for a player and they're future? The player and their family? Or the coach who with a clear bias towards staying?

Wolverine In Exile

December 17th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^

I saw in a recent article that there are rumors the Lions are considering Thibodeaux instead of Hutchinson with the #1 pick. I admittedly have not watched a lot of Oregon.. trying to take Maize n Blue glasses off (and shelving 50 yrs of Lions conspiracy theories)... can someone more data rich than I explain why Thibodeaux would possible be considered over Hutchinson at this point?

CRISPed in the DIAG

December 17th, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^

Todd McShay was going over his draft list on the Ryen Rusillo podcast this week. He has Hutchinson #1 and said that it wasn't easy because Thibodeaux is more athletic but lacks Hutchinson's intangibles (drive, leadership, big plays/big moments).

Otherwise, I'd assume Thibodeaux gets a lot of love because spent most of the year near the top - from preseason forward - and only fell when he had a visibly blah game against Utah. 

Don

December 17th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^

"can someone more data rich than I explain why Thibodeaux would possible be considered over Hutchinson at this point?"

The Detroit Lions have a long, long history of not using high draft choices on UM players, especially those on defense. In the 1971 draft, for example, the Lions had two chances to draft Dan Dierdorf, who was a consensus All American OL for Michigan. In their wisdom the Lions declined to draft Dierdorf in favor of some who-dat from Clemson, and Dierdorf went to the Cardinals early in the second round, and eventual membership in the NFL Hall of Fame.

Subsequent draft years are filled with such decisions by the Lions—you could build a damn good NFL team out of the Michigan players that the Lions could have drafted but didn't.

Shorter explanation: the Lions have been run by idiots for the past sixty years.

FrozeMangoes

December 17th, 2021 at 7:44 PM ^

I follow some draft guys on twitter.  I have seen several people have Thib ahead and have seen a couple defend their decision when pressed.  They say that both are close and the gap from those two to the pack is quite large.  They had Thib ahead because he saw an inordinate amount of double and triple teams this year and still produced whereas Hutchinson had Ojabo so he got more opportunities on an island.

As a Lions fan I hope they take Hutch as I think a lot of the qualities that lead him to come back to get over the OSU hump would translate well to turning the Lions into a respectable franchise.

meeashagin

December 17th, 2021 at 1:00 PM ^

PFF may have Hutchison #1 but it grades our oline to be pretty apathetic toward playing american tackle football so idk bout PFF.

In other news it has Haskins n Corum at #2 & #3.

mp2

December 17th, 2021 at 1:08 PM ^

I live in Louisville, and every time I pass that tower on my way back home to visit family, I take a picture of it to send to my family to let them know I'm on my way or have made it that far on my way back. I probably have fifty pictures of that thing on my phone.