Unverified Voracity Boats Botes
we going to the ship
Michigan represented in the real bracket. This Is March, and that means it's Name of the Year time. College football, which annually raises hundreds of names from obscurity, contributes five participants—at least five that I recognize—to this year's tournament:
1 seed Kobe Buffalomeat, an Illinois State signee.
15 seed Dredrick Snelson Jr, a UCF wide receiver.
11 seed Bumper Pool, a 2018 LB committed to Okie State (who Michigan pursued).
5 seed and Michigan signee Luiji Vilain(!).
1 seed Quindarious Monday, a 2018 safety out of Georgia recently offered by Michigan.
2 seed Sultan McDoom does not appear to be related to Eddie, FWIW. Also there is a Taco Dibbits who is presumably not related to Taco Charlton.
I believe Vilain is the first Michigan-affiliated participant since Iris Macadangdang made it to the final in 2009, losing to LSU DE Barkevious Mingo. Yes I knew that off the top of my head. Yes my brain is very good and full of useful things.
The NOTY bracket is always a magical one that different people will take different things from, like a diamond with 64 gleaming facets. Personally, I'm partial to Boats Botes. Boats.
@dpeoplesjones showing off the hops #bunnies #bounce pic.twitter.com/jZEpnqKGKj
— Cass Tech Football (@Detroit_CTFB) March 14, 2017
Many, many spring practice(?) things. I was thinking about splitting out huge data dumps from Sam Webb and Steve Lorenz into a separate post but since they're mostly about winter workouts—ie not even practice—during the heart of NCAA tournment season maybe we'll just jam it in here.
Prepare for JAM:
- Webb reports that Don Brown is bringing up Mike Wroblewski—who is apparently called "ROBO"—unprompted as the third ILB along with McCray and Bush. Sounds like Michigan will be rotating three guys for two spots.
- Drevno picks out Mike Onwenu as the gentleman with the biggest offseason improvement. Also mentioned: Rashan Gary, Ian Bunting, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Meanwhile Lorenz reports that Onwenu has shed significant weight and is in a good spot.
- Sam is asked which early enrollees are consistently drawing mention and responds with Cesar Ruiz and—surprise—Donovan Peoples-Jones. Lorenz also mentions Ruiz as "college ready" physically and broaches the possibility he'll be a four-year starter. That would necessarily kick either Mason Cole or Ben Bredeson out to tackle. Frey thinks he can bat Cole around this spring and it won't have a negative impact.
- Lorenz also asserts that the coaching staff is pushing Juwann Bushell-Beatty because they think he can make it. They thought he was a reasonable option midseason, so he's got to be doing something right in practice.
- Per Lorenz, Karan Higdon's gotten up to 200 and he'll push Chris Evans.
- Metellus and Hudson are candidates at both safety and VIPER(!). Metellus is getting talked up a lot as a guy who had "one of the best winters on the roster" by Sam and by Lorenz as the favorite to start next to Kinnel, as he's a "rock solid 205" and a Don Brown favorite.
- Lorenz reports that Michigan is big on Carlo Kemp and Donovan Jeter has impressed early.
There's more at each of the links but that's how they get you, with the useful information.
ACC BIG 10 BIG 12 SEC PAC 12 BIG EAST. It's me again. Looking 4 home & home next year. Pls call me 4 chance 4 QUALITY road win, top 33 RPI pic.twitter.com/zYAZpR3kJn
— Dan Muller (@DanMuller) March 13, 2017
Illinois State should have been in. Ken Pomeroy writes on the exclusion of Illinois State from the field. One reason I was mildly incensed about what the committee did this year is that they gave the numbers-literate a window for hope:
In January, the NCAA invited me and several other people to discuss using new metrics to support the tournament selection process. It is encouraging that the people in charge of men’s basketball at the NCAA are interested in using the best tools available.
That discussion obviously went nowhere, as the Minnesota-Wisconsin seeding discrepancy and Illinois State exclusion demonstrate. Kenpom's take on the Redbirds:
Teams from a competitive mid-major conference like the Missouri Valley play a much different kind of schedule. Most games against teams outside the top 100 are conference games, which are just as likely to be on the road as they are at home. Also, very few of those “bad” opponents are going to be as bad as Howard or Western Carolina, whom Marquette played. Although it played many more teams outside the top 100, Illinois State still had fewer games (three) against teams in the bottom 100 than Marquette. As a consequence, a whole lot more of Illinois State’s games against poorer teams were potentially loseable, if the Redbirds had a particularly bad night or their opponent was feeling it. And the Redbirds did lose two of them—road games to Murray State and Tulsa. ...
If Marquette and Illinois State swapped schedules, the Golden Eagles would almost surely lose some games to teams outside the top 100. If you put Illinois State in the Big East, it would have earned some quality wins. No doubt, though, the Redbirds would do much worse than their 17-1 Missouri Valley Conference record when facing the tougher competition. But consider that Xavier went 8-10 against Big East teams not named DePaul and easily earned an at-large bid. The standard for small-conference teams is incredibly high, while the standard for major-conference teams is not as high as you think.
The "bad loss" mode of thinking fails to take into account the fact that when you play a high number of road games against teams with RPIs from 100 to 200, an NCAA quality team will be expected to lose some of them.
There are metrics that take this into account. "Wins Above Bubble"—defined as "the amount of wins you have - than the amount of wins an average bubble team would expect to have against the schedule you faced"—is an easy concept to grasp that ranks on overall resume instead of the distorted windows that arbitrary RPI bins provide. Illinois State was excluded despite being 1.5 WAB, ahead of 7-seed Dayton and 9-seeds MSU and Vandy*.
We blithely dismiss Illinois State's record because it came against "nobody", but anybody can be somebody on the road. Take Illinois State's game at Missouri State. On the day of the game, Missouri State was ranked #130 in Kenpom—bad loss territory if this was RPI. Illinois State was ranked #44, which is where nine-seed VT is ranked today and ahead of at-large picks VCU, Seton Hall, Providence, and USC. Kenpom gave Illinois State—which, again, was performing like a legit NCAA tournament team at the time—just a 63% shot at victory. Play nine road games against teams from 100 to 200 and an NCAA bubble team should lose a couple, as Illinois State did. Their record should have been enough to get them in the field.
*[I don't think WAB should be used for seeding; it's a selection metric. I mention the above teams because they were not only in the field but evidently not even on the bubble.]
New hockey coach maybe possibly. This gentleman appears to be Pavel Datsyuk's agent:
That midget agent of Pavel Datsyuk @danmilstein Tweeted this out yesterday and now deleted it. I wonder why. pic.twitter.com/sGOrhldWgh
— Jeffrey Moss (@JeffMossDSR) March 15, 2017
Obligatory disclaimer: agents are not always reliable sources, and the deletion of said tweet makes it even shakier. If, however, he is correct and Michigan has already moved to secure their next head coach that could mean they've gone off the board. IE: they hired Not Mel. It seems doubtful that this guy would be in the loop if it was Pearson.
Etc.: TTB talks to James Ross. Surveying the wreckage at Michigan State. The money has to go somewhere. It goes to already-well-off people. Quinn on Okie State. We got boned.
Welcome back
this football player's name absolutely sounds like a poorly localized translation of Waluigi pic.twitter.com/aZUP7hx4FG
— Eli Yudin (@eliyudin) January 24, 2017
March 15th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
Is the TTB link exactly like those Chris Farley interview sketches or nah?
with bewbs
I kid, I kid
March 15th, 2017 at 12:48 PM ^
It's so frustrating how people on the selection committee don't understand basic math
March 15th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
It's not that they dont understand it, it's that they totally reject it as a basis for selection and seeding. They place tremendous emphasis, it would seem, on the some subjective evaluation tool of them all - the "eye test" and reject anything that places emphasis on metrics beyond that which they can see.
I've got to believe there are people in that room that DO understand math and want to use all the available tools at their disposal but are over-ruled by the old farts who just got used to using the RPI instead of the AP poll for selection.
The "eye test" only makes sense if you've watched a significant number of games from each potential tournament entrant, which nobody has.
March 15th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
Need more hockey coach speculation!
March 15th, 2017 at 12:58 PM ^
Where does that leave Ty Issac?
Presumably where he was a year ago, behind both of them. Maybe behind more by now.
Sounds like some solid practice buzz, especially at the positions where we need it the most. Kinda surprised there hasn't been more buzz around Josh Uche, I expected him to be on NFL mock drafts by now.
I need more spring practice buzz. *cries* I miss footbaaaaallll. *sobs*
My totally uninformed best guess as to the starting OL: Bredeson, Onwenu, Cole, Ruiz, JBB.
My guess as well. Maybe Ulizio as a possibility at one of the Tackle postitions. Ruiz is starting.
is looking college ready is music to my ears. That could be huge to put him in the middle for 4 years. I think the OL looks more like
Cole, Bredeson, Ruiz, Onwenu, JBB. I think we will have some decent depth also with Kugler and Ulizio. I think this line could be better then last years.
Love the reports on the safety/viper position and the continue improvement and depth at RB. Can hardly wait for the season now! Let's just hope everyone stays healthy
If there's an incentive for a power-conference team to play Illinois State home-and-home, I can't think of one. I suspect that's why hot-take columnists always have to resort to calling them chicken for not doing so - because they can't base their argument on logical self-interest for one side of the agreement.
It's especially funny when the argument is they need those wins in order to be seen as a tournament team, and power conference teams should be willing to give them those wins. Uh, in exchange for what, exactly?
The best bet for the ISUs of the world is to cheat the RPI by road-tripping it and winning. A win over Somalia State on the road counts just as much in the RPI as a win over Duke. Hurts the opponents' WP portion of RPI, but still. Yes, an NCAA quality team can be expected to lose "some" games on the road, but ISU went 1-3 on the road OOC. 2-4, counting neutral sites. Or maybe a power-conference team will go for a 2-for-1 arrangement. I wanted to see ISU in, but the most likely fact is the committee looked at them and said, hey, you lost almost every time you played someone not in your conference on the road. That's not much persuasion to bring you on the road and play someone good.
Ain't nobody beating "Kobe Buffalomeat".
March 16th, 2017 at 12:17 AM ^
We got boned was a pretty good read.
If there's one annual staple of the CBS Selection Show outside of Seth Davis announcing that he likes Duke's chances of reaching the Final Four, it's that there will always be a mid-major or minor-conference team that got unfairly snubbed.
Looking Good.
Milstein tweeted at like 2am that he was wrong and then deleted both tweets.
I do not always agree with seeding, or necessarily who gets into the tournament, but I do realize that it must be a very difficult job getting everyone's seeds exactly right, especially when they like to avoid repeat matchups and potential conference matchups in the first two rounds. So generally, if a team is within a seed line either way of where I think they should be, I am happy.
When it comes to Michigan State, I think there is a lot of desire to come up with consipiracies of why they were wrongfully seeded, but in actuality, I think they are a tad overseeded (maybe as a favor to Hollis as you stated), but not enough that we should think too much into it. Realistically, they are the lowest seeded team in the big 10 (as they should be). If you look at the seed list, I think there is only a realistic argument for two teams below Michigan State to be where they are, Wichita and Oklahoma State. They couldn't have switched with OSU because of the matchup with us, and the committee forever hates WIchita. Let's not go crazy with these theories when in actuality, MSU isn't seeded THAT bad.
I would be more OK with MSU as a 9-seed if Michigan were properly seeded on the 6-line as their resume warrants.
If MSU was overseeded, their resume should not be as good as the other three 9 seeds, or else you have to say the committee messed up that whole seed line. These are the four 9 seeds:
Team RPI SOS W-L record vs RPI top 50
VT 47 75 22-10 5-8
SH 44 52 21-11 4-7
MSU 51 10 19-14 6-9
Van 38 1 19-15 6-8
They appear to fit with that group based upon my arbitrary criteria.
In order to justify the 9 seed, the committee had to use RPI and the corresponding strength of schedule as their main seed determinants.I don't follow. MSU's RPI was bad (50), worse than its KenPom rating, actually (42).
If you look at RPI and SOS, MSU's closest comparison is Georgia. MSU was 51 in RPI and 10th in SOS. Georgia was 52 and 12, respectively. But Georgia was 1-9 against the RPI top 50 compared to MSU's 6-9. That was the difference between a 9 seed and not making the tournament.
THIS NAME IS THE BEST NAME IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD.
Dick Posthumus, and Faraj Fartass are all in the loaded Stithole Regional. Dougal Spork, Kitty Chiller, and Christian Joo are hillarious names all in the Dragonwagon regonal. Alpha McMath is a darkhorse.
Faraj Fartass?
Faraj Fartass.
Honestly the Dragonwagon Regional might be the weakest of the bunch - but I'm a big fan of 6 seed Andy Brandy Casagrande IV.
And how about the Crotchtangle 8/9 matchup between Edzard Overbeek and Mythzard Thelisma? Battle of the Zards!
Shavodrick Beaver.......
This is a harsh take but maybe don't ask for a home & home when they have all the reason to ignore you. I know you're making a point here, coach, but you are right that they aren't gonna schedule you when it's not worth it. So play away games until you're taken seriously as a midmajor, then you can make H&H requests.
Boats Botes is a great name, but he(?) got a tough draw in the first round against 3 seed Eliza Fox Teats.
Higdon pushing Evans as expected. No mention of Kareem Walker just yet. Hoping he can get in the mix too by Spring
/rubs hands together and laughs evil laugh
Show some name love for Bulltron 12-seed and Umich Ph.D. Clapperton Mavhunga, class of 2008 (and now on faculty at MIT): https://mit.academia.edu/ClappertonMavhunga/CurriculumVitae
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