[Short Rollin'/Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Three Up, Three Down: Hoops Edition Comment Count

Matt EM November 15th, 2021 at 3:42 PM

In what I intend to be a weekly/bi-weekly column, this piece aims to expand on weekly trends for the basketball team relative to season expectations (in this case) or progression/regression as compared to prior weeks.

In short, you can use this analysis as sort of a stock report for the hoops squad in terms of individual + team performance, sets and lineups.

 

THREE UP

Hunter Dickinson, the short roller. Off-season chatter surrounding Dickinson focused on his ability to go over the left shoulder as a counter to defenses sitting on his left hand while also expanding his shooting range beyond the arch.

Hunter has flashed the ability to hit triples and go right during the first two games, but his abilities as a short-roller in the ballscreen game has been the most pleasant surprise early on.

I beat the drum during the off-season on my view that getting Dickinson more easy baskets as a roll-man was more important to team success than three-point shooting or developing a right hand. The logic behind that is Hunter may take 1-2 triples per game and perhaps use his right a few times a night, but utilizing him as a short-roller is something Juwan Howard can dial up 10-15 times in any given contest.

It's obviously early, but the returns on Dickinson as a short-roll man have been promising. He looks very adept at the floater 7-10 feet from the basket that we so often see Bam Adebayo go to in the NBA. Perhaps even more impressive, is the playmaking we've seen from HD in the short-roll game. The second possession in the clip above sees Dickinson make an NBA level read + pass to find Brooks for a wide-open triple. That was reminiscent of what Draymond Green does for the Warriors. 

This has the look of a go-to weapon for Michigan that puts the defense in a pinch because of Hunter's gravity as a finisher. The defense is forced to choose between HD getting a short floater or collapsing on him early and taking their chances with kickouts to weakside shooters. Eli Brooks and Caleb Houstan could be huge beneficiaries if this promising start continues in the short-roll game. 

 

Eli Brooks, the playmaker. The super-senior has been known as a rock-solid fixture in Michigan's backcourt for the last few years. In NBA terminology, he is the quintessential connector. Generally known as a catch-and-shoot type in the half-court offense with the occasional transition dunk, Brooks was really impressive as a shot-creator for others against Buffalo. 

We need a bigger sample here, as super-senior guards don't generally become good on-ball types in a fifth year, but perhaps year three in Juwan Howard's system is when things clicked for his shot-creation chops. If Eli's emergence as a playmaker for others in the ballscreen game is a consistent thing, the concerns regarding a backup guard (both the PG and SG spots have been talking points) are alleviated to a large degree.

Rather than searching for answers in terms of personnel, it becomes a matter of Juwan Howard staggering his lineups to have Brooks on the court during all non-Jones minutes when the games are truly meaningful. This is beneficial to the team on both ends of the court, as Bufkin hasn't looked up to speed defensively just yet and I'm not sure you want Nunez/Williams out there defending SGs for large chunks of the game.

 

Moussa Diabate's versatility. The mainstream recruiting profiles for Diabate essentially read "elite athlete that will be a rim-runner, roll-man and switchable rim-protector". So far Moussa, has been much more than that. While others may have undersold his passing/ball-skills, your author has been enamored with those facets of his game for quite some time. This was a big part of the equation for me being a bit higher on Diabate in relation to his more renowned 5-star teammate (more on that below).

Moussa's passing ability both on the roll and from the post has been nothing short of outstanding for a freshman big. Hitting weakside shooters on the short-roll and waiting until traffic clears to find shooters on kickouts from the block was eye-opening stuff as seen below:

The passing is undeniably the most intriguing offensive component of his game for the team so far, as it makes interchangeable high-low Horns action with Dickinson a more plausible scenario. But there have been some nice flashes with his face-up game off the bounce as well.

Diabate has looked solid putting the ball on the floor for a few dribbles from both the elbow and the wing. He's going to be quicker than 98% of the people defending him and his ability to blow-by is a potential weapon. Buffalo is a bit undersized/quicker than the bigs we'll see from teams such as Purdue/Illinois/MSU/Wisconsin and the agility advantage is still evident. Imagine traditional bigs such as Edey/Williams/Cockburn/Hauser attempting to stay with him off the bounce. 

Finally, I don't need to say much regarding the defensive versatility. The clip below speaks volumes. On an island, Moussa beats Jeenathan Williams to the spot, forces him to give up the ball and then top-locks him to force a deflection after Buffalo attempts to give him the ball back.

For a team that may project to struggle a bit with athletic shot-creators with size, Diabate may very well be an X-factor. He is the most naturally gifted defender on the team, with a tantalizing mix of size/length/agility. If the team runs into a matchup issue(think Jaden Ivey types), Moussa is definitely a guy I'd look to given his physical abilities. If he can quickly get up to speed on the various coverages/assignments, he has a chance to be one of the best defenders in America as a freshman. 

[AFTER THE JUMP, treys down]

 

THREE DOWN

When Charity Goes Wrong. I'm going to spare you visual evidence of what amounts to a brick-laying tutorial, but shooting 56.5% from the charity stripe on 62 attempts so far ain't it folks. 

Some of this is the natural tradeoff that comes with fielding a bigger/more athletic team, but I can't imagine the FT shooting will be that poor moving forward. That said, consistently winning at the rim>perimeter shooting in my opinion. Provided the charity stripe adventures hover around 70%, that's a tradeoff I like in the long run. 

 

Caleb Houstan's Defense. The prize of the 2021 class was touted as a high-IQ versatile defender by 247. Your author was wary about the lack of agility/overall athleticism, but thought his size/length could make him a solid defender against catch-and-shoot types.

It's still far too early to make conclusions, given the general struggles of freshman on defense. But I'd be lying to say I'm not concerned given the issues against Buffalo.

I think its probably safe to assume Houstan will never fall in the category of wing-stopper. But Michigan doesn't need him to be that. Caleb just needs to play good off-ball defense and make smart rotations to be a net-neutral defensively. 

 

The injury bug. Minor injuries/bugs have caused Eli Brooks, Frankie Collins and Zeb Jackson to miss varying stints of practice/game action to the start the season. With so many new parts to the team, it would be great to get everyone at full strength to see what Juwan Howard has at his disposal. It's difficult to settle in on a rotation when potential rotational players have yet to see the court in a real game. 

 

 

Comments

Grampy

November 15th, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^

I like our three ups way more than I dislike our three downs. You can fix FT% and Houstan’s defense will improve with some work. The talent shown in the three ups can’t be created so easily.  Thanks, Matt, it’s great to be a Michigan Wolverine. 

SeattleWolverine

November 15th, 2021 at 4:56 PM ^

Fix might not be the right verb but Jones was 87% last year vs 50% this year. Dickinson shot 74% last vs 46% so far. Faulds' 50% is irrelevant but drags down the avg since he won't ever be playing meaningful minutes. The rest of the team is at a still bad 63% but if you can get Jones and Dickinson to shoot their normal %s and they are the high volume guys then you get to something in the 70% ballpark that's at least ok. Just two games but I assume it's just an aberration and those two more or less regress to the mean.

 

Diabate is the one that is a little bit worrying. Too early to say but he's not considered a shooter and his 2P shots are likely to be high % looks at the rim so there may be some incentive there to hack him if you can at least stop him from finishing too. 

TrueBlue2003

November 15th, 2021 at 4:11 PM ^

Thanks, Matt, nice write up. Few comments:

1. My guess with Brooks is that he's benefitting from early season games in which the opponent scouting and specific gameplanning is less than it is in conference play and that B1G coaches will force him to beat defenders 1:1 and not help off the likes of HD and Houstan, but we'll see.  If he can win those 1:1 matchups with regularity, he'll force the help.

2. Dare I say, Moussa is more like Franz than I imagined.  A bit longer and more athletic but can guard just about any position and both have a ton of length.  And his driving and distribution isn't quite on Franz level but not that far behind.  Good vision.  He's more of a wing than he was given credit for in the scouting reports for sure (which you recognized).

3. While I agree that Houstan has a ways to go on defense, the second clipped play is probably not on him.  Eli forces baseline, Houstan comes over to help exactly as he's supposed to. In most force baseline systems, help is supposed to come from that angle because even as you're helping you're still directly in the one passing lane the guy has, and in fact you're cutting off angles as you get closer and ideally you get a trap with Brooks parallel to baseline and Houstan perpendicular. This is how Chris Beard defenses do it.

But the ball handler made a circus pass falling OB to get around him and the problem is that Dickinson is caught watching the play in no man's land, not in a passing lane.  He needs to get back on his guy so Johns can rotate to the baseline shooter instead of maintaining help position on HD's guy. I say probably because it's possible that in Juwan's defense HD is the help guy but you usually want it coming from the baseline because of the angle and it's a farther pass so Johns has more time to rotate to it.

AC1997

November 15th, 2021 at 8:57 PM ^

Good responses and stole some of my thoughts as well.  A couple of things I'd add to yours:

1.  Really good point...and exactly why Eli's return is so key.  Nothing we've seen so far is a surprise to him.  He rolls out of his bed hitting open threes and attacking an aggressive close-out.  The B10 season will be a grind, but the hope is that by the time that comes around, the other players have figured things out and Eli may not have to be the playmaker this much.  

2. I was really encouraged that Diabate actually looked to pass so much (I didn't think the quality of his passes was quite as impressive as it was implied here because those guys were wide open).  My fear with him is that he'd have a Kofi-like tendency to try to finish everything instead of finding the open man.  That being said, as with point #3 below, all of this is early and based on low sample sizes so we'll keep an eye on it.  While this part of his game is more mature than I thought....his jump shot is much more rough than I expected.  His one three was rough and his FT stroke doesn't exude confidence.

3. I think one of the things about Houstan's defense is closing out a little too aggressively.  He could get away with that in high school.  I think he'll get better at the positioning and team stuff - it hurts a little that he has to play the three for this team and that our guards are both small.  He's not going to get the benefit of playing next to Wagner or Matthews, he's playing next to Johns and Diabate.  

mwolverine1

November 15th, 2021 at 4:39 PM ^

The biggest thing that will help Houstan is just focusing on playing solid defense and not gambling for steals and blocks. The overhelping has been a bad habit so far and he'll have to break that.

The good news is he has been as advertised in terms of shooting efficiency and has shown "Not Just a Shooter" potential. Few too many turnovers last time out but he doesn't seem afraid of the ball, which can be a concern for young shooters.

umchicago

November 15th, 2021 at 5:33 PM ^

it's early, but we need better play out of jones at the PG position. i'm not worried yet. you can tell he's trying to be a pass first guy instead of being the number one option the past couple of years.

MGlobules

November 15th, 2021 at 7:02 PM ^

You can tell he's very anxious to please, a little anxious generally. He's also obviously very capable. The truth is that we don't know what we need from him yet. It's possible that there will be less call for him to run and set up the offense than Mike Smith did last year. He might be playing fewer minutes than expected, and doing just fine. 

True Blue Grit

November 15th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^

I'm not concerned about Houstan's defense yet.  We have such a small sample size and I'm sure the coaches will work with him on that going forward.  He seems like a very high IQ player, so I think he will get much better.  

rice4114

November 15th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^

When the other team has that guy over 6'4" that is hitting everything you just put Moussa on him and tell him nothing else matters. Can you imagine UCLA without Johnny Juzangs jumper as an option. Ugh please lord let this matchup happen and give Moussa every minute Johnny gets. Good luck UCLA and Johnny.

BuddhaBlue

November 15th, 2021 at 10:11 PM ^

Generally known as a catch-and-shoot type in the half-court offense with the occasional transition dunk, Brooks was really impressive as a shot-creator for others 

Man, just two+ years ago who would have believed this sentence... I love this timeline, like with MAAR and D-Walt, even Big Country, guys you were unsure about, but then maxed out their potential in front of your eyes. (Hoping the same for BJJ)

Also, pretty concerning regarding Houstan's D. He would be a terrible NBA pick with that D. Needs to work on that before he could turn pro, maybe another 1-2 years. Yep, that would do it

champswest

November 15th, 2021 at 10:47 PM ^

Only been two games, but Brooks is the only starter playing up to expectations (or, the level at which we need them to be playing). He is actually exceeding expectations.

Joby

November 16th, 2021 at 7:42 AM ^

Are you excluding Dickinson and Jones from having met expectations on the basis of their FT shooting? HD had 27/6 the first game and a double-double in 23 minutes the second game. Jones has stuffed the stat sheet in both games despite limited minutes. As others have noted, they should at least regress to their means with FTs over the season.

Monocle Smile

November 16th, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^

This brand of negativity is showing up all over the basketball posts and board threads and it's remarkably difficult to understand. This reminds me of the "Fire Beilein" bullshit that happened every November/December before his teams inevitably (with few exceptions) beat the shit out of the Big Ten and made a nice tournament run.

johnthesavage

November 15th, 2021 at 11:17 PM ^

I think "perhaps use his right a few times a night" hugely undersells the value to Hunter developing the ability to finish with his off-hand. He is much easier to guard, on every possession, when his finishing is so one-sided. Personally I'd love to see him prioritize this way ahead of 3-point shooting, and everything else on offense.

mgoecon

November 16th, 2021 at 1:06 AM ^

Great stuff. Thanks for the write-up.

- I love the screen-the-screener action they’ve got going in those Eli clips.

- It’s probably no coincidence that HD’s short roll reminds you of Bam, given the Heat connection.

- I look forward to seeing how Houstan’s defense evolves over the season.

- Diabate will be the most exciting UM player since… ???

DetroitDan

November 16th, 2021 at 1:43 AM ^

So far, it seems that Juwan excels in recruiting, including from the transfer portal and also with keeping some upperclassmen around and contributing.  In other words, he's proven good at the critical part of coaching that consists of getting a good set of players each season. 

Exhibit A is Devante Jones who seems to be a polished, accomplished player in all phases of the game.  Last year he lost a pair of 5 stars at the last minute, but filled in with transfers Mike Smith and Chaundee Brown to produce one of the best teams in the nation.  Austin Davis and Adrien Nunez have been given renewed life late in their college careers, as loyalty and effort are rewarded even as a few outstanding freshmen are brought in every year.

Next year's recruiting class won't be tops in the nation again, but it doesn't need to be as we'll have some recruits from this year returning and deserving a chance to play.  So far, so good as we get the best of both worlds -- top recruiting classes and returning veterans.