Re-Filling The Basketball Roster
Suddenly relevant again: 2019 basketball recruiting. Iggy seems to be gone, flat out, and the various noises emanating from Jordan Poole's camp don't sound much better. Unless one of them reverses course Michigan will have two roster slots, and four big shoes to fill, before fall. Jordan Poole isn't on ESPN's latest mock draft, FWIW. Iggy is 40th.
Here's a run-down of who's on the board.
2019 Recruits
Franz Wagner. Moe's brother and the biggest fish still on the board.
Franz Wagner with a layup so good the commentators are shocked
— ACB Jornada Virtual (@ACBJV) April 10, 2019
albaberlin making big plays of their own #7DAYSMagicMoment pic.twitter.com/NQ3tmYfJVy #EuroCup
Wagner is very much on the radar of NBA folks and would be roughly equivalent to Iggy as a recruit: goofily ranked because of his international status but a virtual five-star. Wagner would be an 18-year-old freshman, not a 20-year-old one, and thus might have a longer transition period. Iggy showed up jacked. Wagner is more on the Colin Castleton end of the spectrum. On the other hand he is getting a reasonable amount of time for a good Euroleague team, and playing with pros. He won't be shocked by the level of competition.
Franz Wagner ('01) with 8 points in 21 minutes in Alba's BBL win against Bamberg. Looked very comfortable in his very first career start: Making shots, trying to get to the rim and competing defensively. Having a fantastic season. pic.twitter.com/R80hEHpiib
— NBADraftProspects (@draftprosnba) November 20, 2018
Per Sam Webb, if he does come stateside it will be Michigan. He's giving it serious enough thought to warrant articles in German newspapers about the difficult choice before him. Google Translate's whack at the content:
Today Bernau, tomorrow Alba, life is beautiful. Only when asked about the day after tomorrow does Franz Wagner become a little restless. It is obvious, but it annoys. Does he follow the same path as his four-year-older brother Moritz Wagner, who left Alba at the age of 18, changed to college and now lives with the Los Angeles Lakers his dream of the NBA?
"I've seen that if I keep working like I do now, I can play very well here," says Franz Wagner evasively. "I'm still trying to establish myself in the top league." Individual training, he knows, could not have been better his. "Alba is one of the best situations in Europe that you can have as a 17- or 18-year-old. This is the perfect coach (Aito Reneses Garcia, d.Red.), I'm at home and I know all the people. "But he also thinks about something else:" If I sign a contract this summer, I probably do that next 20 years, play basketball. "
In college, that would be another basketball world. But not only that: "You get to know a new culture, other people, something completely different." Why should not one of the greatest German basketball talents think the same as other young people? The notion of being recognized by everyone and even worshiped by some, not only because of its 2.03 meter size on campus, may not be the worst idea either.
There is no trend, insists Wagner, but "it is not easy in any case". And consoles himself with the thought: "I believe that I can not make a bad decision."
Moe will be pushing for Michigan, and hopefully his path leads his brother to Ann Arbor. He's the only guy on the board who reasonably projects as a straight-up no-regression replacement for one of the (projected) departed.
[After THE JUMP: Americans]
Harlond Beverly. Beverly is a Michigan native who moved down to one of those basketball academies for his senior year; unsatisfied by his options in the earlier period he didn't commit anywhere. Michigan's initial pursuit of Beverly was always a back-burner thing, as they first focused on DJ Carton and then grabbed Cole Bajema before Bajema's recruitment really took off. This was the moment in which it looked like Michigan had a need Beverly could fill:
John Beilein watched Beverly for two days at the Summer Jam. In the post-D.J. Carton recruiting world, it’s thought Beverly could surge to the top of the Wolverines’ 2019 point guard big board.
Beilein hasn’t yet extended an offer, but you can expect Michigan to get eyes on Beverly again next week when his R.E.A.C.H. Legends AAU team closes July in Orlando.
“We talk quite a bit — I talk to Coach Beilein a few times a week,” Beverly said. “They just want to see a little more out of me. They said, if I play up to their standards, an offer will be there. Just keep getting better.
“(He likes my) versatility — big guard, shooting getting better. Just a big versatile guard.”
Bajema blew up in Las Vegas just before the end of the July, and Beverly never got the chance to be recruited. Now he's in the midst of doing the same thing. Rivals's Eric Bossi:
…the best available guard in the country not named Cole Anthony, despite there being a few other guards ahead of him in the current rankings who remain open. Beverly is explosive, he can shoot with range, he does things pretty efficiently and he knows how to shine and get his while playing with other big time talent.
Beverly's shooting was reputedly "streaky"—ie, bad—last year, which may be one reason that Michigan had a couple of other guys in front of him. His progress this year on a team that plays the same kind of loaded schedule that Brazdeikis's did a year ago has evidently erased those concerns. Inside The Hall has a scouting report if you're inclined:
Court awareness and a willingness to share the ball
The combo guard is playing with several Division I bound teammates at Montverde and is a willing passer and playmaker for his teammates.
On film, he showed an ability to get the ball into the post several times and also find open shooters on the perimeter for 3-pointers:
Beverly is being hotly pursued by anyone in need of a guard in an era of mass transfers and NBA departures, so that's… a lot of people. He's taken recent visits to Indiana and Miami and will take an official to Georgia this weekend. Probably.
Webb mentioned that Michigan is trying to get him up immediately, which is a sign that he's a priority. If he drops a planned visit for Michigan that could be real good. As of late January his list was Baylor, Georgia, Xavier, Miami, and Indiana. Kansas has offered since, but hasn't gotten any traction yet. Michigan moved on him at the end of March; a quick visit displacing a long-time school of interest would say something.
Takeoff @overtime pic.twitter.com/98GfQcC4a3
— Lester Quinones (@Effort_les) April 11, 2019
Lester Quinones. Quinones was actually the first indication that Michigan was prepping for attrition when he announced he'd be taking an official months ago. That is still on the books for the 29th of this month. Never say never, but this one would be pulling a rabbit out of your hat. Quinones on Memphis:
"The visit was honestly incredible," Quinones said. "The atmosphere at the games was great, and I was overwhelmed by the fanbase. The last two visits I went on weren't like that. It felt like I took a million pictures with fans over the weekend, and the fans were chanting my name and stuff, it was crazy."
Memphis then took the crystal ball lead away from LSU, the only team that had predictions in their favor before that. Rival's Corey Evans recently asserted that "Memphis might be the program to beat, with Maryland not too far off." Michigan got mention as a potential dark horse, but… yeah. LSU, Memphis, Maryland, and Michigan is a list in which Michigan is the odd team out. Maybe Beilein's track record of development would be enough to overcome that. Doubtful.
One item that Michigan now has in their favor is a clear path to a bunch of playing time. That's the #1 thing Quinones cited about his decision, and Michigan likely has a giant Jordan-Poole shaped hole in the starting lineup that Eli Brooks and Adrien Nunez probably aren't going to fit in. Their best bet: Quinones plays for IMG and was coached by former Michigan assistant John Mahoney.
“I watch Michigan, and we played the same offense here at my high school with Coach Mahoney,” he said. “It’s pretty much the same thing.” …
Said Quinones, “(it will come down to) my relationship with the head coach and I want to be at a school where I can play major minutes a freshman… (a school) where my coach trusts me.”
So he might be more of a plug and play piece than other options since he's been in Beilein's system, more or less, for the last couple years.
Grad transfers
Justin Pierce. Pierce exits William & Mary a two-time all CAA player and has an appealing shot distribution where 80% of his shots are from three or at the rim. His offensive efficiency fell off considerably this year because of a strange shooting slump: he dropped from 79% at the line to 57% and his three point shooting went from 41% to 33%.
Pierce picked up a bit of usage in his junior year but nothing outlandish; the big change for him was the departure of William & Mary's point guard, who was a 30 assist rate guy. Pierce's assist rate nearly doubled this year as he took on more of the playmaking burden. Fewer clean looks may explain the three-point dip. Free throws are a larger question.
A version of Pierce that can get back to the knockdown shooting of two years ago and keep the shot creation is appealing, and a lot of major schools are after him. He's planning a Notre Dame visit this weekend. Beilein is trying to cut the Irish off at the pass:
According to sources close to @thehubchicago, Michigan head coach @JohnBeilein is flying out to Williamsburg, VA this Thursday to visit the nation’s most sought after grad transfer @JustinPierce23, prior to his visit to Notre Dame.
— Tom Gosswein (@tgosswein25) April 9, 2019
He'd be a fit at the 3 or 4.
Daniel Utomi. A wing shooter type who hit 37% on 232 threes; he did venture inside the line for about a third of his shots but has a single-digit assist rate and scanty FT rate. He was more active inside the line as a sophomore, when he hit 41% from three, but projects as a Just A Shooter type if he transfers up. The local beat writer:
On describing Utomi as a floor-spacing wing:
Thomas: “That is accurate. Now, the dilemma with Daniel is he’s also a streaky shooter. He’s had some slumps in his career, but yeah, he has the ability to hit the 3. Came into the season shooting 40 percent from the 3-point line. I don’t know what happened this year. I don’t know if it was the point guard play or what, but he used to get a lot of wide open looks, and something changed this season.”
What about on the other end:
Thomas: “Defensively, he’s tenacious. He happily plays defense. Rarely gets beat.”
He hasn't set up any visits yet as far as I can tell. He is drawing serious interest from a lot of high majors.
Dazon Ingram. One of many guys exiting Alabama. Ingram would be a Charles Matthews reprise:
Quick Scout: “Big, long, strong athletic guard that needs to become a more consistent perimeter shooter. Can become a dynamic defender.”
He played 20 MPG for a bubble team and had reasonable usage… and a 102 ORTG. That's because of a 26 TO rate; he shot 48/38 from the floor but only had 42 attempts from three. Giant FT rate, 71% shooter. Very much a driver, but maybe not a great fit on a team that's going to move Livers into the starting lineup and needs some guys to eat usage.
Jaevin Cumberland. Cumberland's exiting Oakland after a strange career that saw him stuck deep on the bench until this year, when he was on the floor for 38 MPG.
Derrick Alston’s 12.8 points per game increase (0.6 ppg two years ago to 13.4 ppg this past season) is the greatest in program history and was the second-highest in the NCAA this season. Oakland’s Jaevin Cumberland increased his production by 16.1 ppg.
— B.J. Rains (@BJRains) April 8, 2019
In that time he shot 40% on 263 threes and hit 87% from the line. At the Horizon level he was able to rack up some assists and have a reasonable FT rate.
In the Big Ten he might be Just A Shooter. Probably is going to be Just A Shooter: 20% at the rim and a 56% conversion rate in the Horizon League translates to "argh" in the Big Ten. But shooting is shooting and a guy who hit at a 40% clip on a ton of threes with the FT% to back it up would be welcome.
Cumberland is Cincinnati star Jarron Cumberland's brother, FWIW.
I'm hoping for Wagner and Beverly. Wagner seems like he can come in and immediately contribute. He's got good size, a smooth stroke, knows how to move the ball, and can put it on the floor. Beverly seems like a more springy MAAR
We need to see more of Beate Wagner. I do at least.
wagner and beverly please...
what I like about our situation is we can take a commit in near term (Beverly/Quinnones) and since wagner's time line is late june, this allows us to juggle any potential comeback from our 3 guys (which isn't expected)
this all assumes these guys also want to be at UM of course
"LSU, Memphis, Maryland, and Michigan is a list in which Michigan is the odd team out. Maybe Beilein's track record of development would be enough to overcome that. Doubtful."
*shakes fist* BAAAAAGMEEEEENNNNNNN
Yeahhh, Quinones recruitment has nothing but sketchy teams involved. LSU was leading then they got busted and now Memphis is and Maryland is also involved. It's already so easy to tell Memphis is dirty. You really expect me to think that Penny Hardaway, a good player who had a really short career before any of these kids were born, and his "NBA staff" is the soul reason Memphis is pulling good players out of the blue? Mkay
Yep, he clearly wants to get paid now.
Memphis does have a lot of soul
I don't know how clean or dirty Memphis is, but he isn't pulling these recruits "out of the blue." Penny has been out of the league for a while, but since then he has been coaching High School and AAU ball in the Memphis area. He had already coached these top 100 recruits that he is bringing in.
April 12th, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^
I don't think 14 years in the NBA qualifies as a really short career, but I guess I'm not the judge of such things.
My completely uneducated guess is they get Wagner, take a flier on a transfer or two, then settle into what they have with the guys already on the roster. And I do think we might see another guy leave the program as a playing-time decision. I'm not sure what the final shakedown of the roster would be in that case, but I don't see Michigan signing a ton of guys just to be floatsam.
Idk I don't think we'll have any playing time transfers now unless we take on some grad transfers. Brooks is now basically the starter at SG if Poole does leave and Davis probably won't due to how close he is to graduating
Davis not going anywhere, it would be brooks if anyone
My guess is that Davis would be the one leaving. He's been passed by a freshman. At best he would be the #2 big for one season, and then he's done.
Brooks hasn't been passed by DDJ yet and got decent minutes this year, for a backup. If Poole's gone, then I guess Brooks would be penciled in as the starter.
It would be helpful to know who will be completing their undergrad degree this year. I don't see either guy sitting out a year at this point in their careers.
Yeah, if Poole stays in the draft (or gets drafted or whatever would lead to him leaving) there isn't a better situation for Brooks than just staying put. He'll have the opportunity to win significant minutes at the two, and he did pretty well in that role at the end of the season once he got out of his slump.
I think Brooks could surprise some people next year and I'm optimistic he'd be a perfectly fine option starting at the two if needed. I think if he wins the job with defense, and has the security of some minutes, his confidence will be fine and he'll shoot just fine.
He'll also have the chance to earn significant minutes the following year at PG (or SG) after Simpson leaves, which is as early as he'd have the chance to compete if he transferred.
It would be a shock if he left. I'd be somewhat surprised if he left even if Poole stays. He was the primary backup at the 1 and 2 last year and will remain so if he plays as well as he did or better the last 6-7 games of the season. And then he'll get a chance to earn starter minutes the following year. Which again, is his best case scenario somewhere else.
Davis isn't going to transfer one year away from graduation.
You may be right, but from the very internet-only things I read some time back there was at least 1 guy who was ready to look elsewhere because even with minutes available he wasn't going to get them. Beilein has shown a willingness to play a shorter bench than just spread out minutes.
Questions - with players testing the draft, does Michigan have to save a spot if they want to come back? Should they save spots if one of these recruits says yes now? Or do they wait until the May deadline?
If Poole sprains an ankle in tryouts and wants to come back will a spot be saved?
I am just glad Beilein changed his policy on over signing. Instead of having 3 spots to fill and only 1 commit, we are much better off. My memory may he faulty, but I believe we usually have an open scholarship yearly. So I think we can only sign 1 more and still be ok. Filling both spots would be great, but we only really need a shooter. Wagner would be the ideal guy and any of the others just a bonus.
It is a bit disheartening that every time we have a great team coming back we always loose people that we didn't see coming. Two years ago it was DJ Wilson. That turned out ok, so hopefully we weather this in a similar way.
FWIW, Snow at 247 has said that Beverly’s family, his dad and uncle, hate the B1G and Michigan’s chances are not good at all
The family hates a conference? Not saying hes wrong just saying that is pretty weird.
Probably in regard to how poorly those games are officiated, and some of the shit holes you have to play in (osu, msu)
April 11th, 2019 at 10:20 PM ^
I really doubt outsiders are obsessed with B1G refs like people here are. And I'd be skeptical there's a conference where all arenas are pristine.
Not enough bagmen?
I'll take Wagner, Beverly and Pierce for 2,000, please
I think you'd need more that $2,000 for them with some of the other names involved in their recruitment...
The most important recruit has to be Wagner. He is the closest to plug and play and, while he isn't physically as strong as Iggy, he can likely step in with quality minutes.
As for Poole, I expect that he will be back. If you are either not on the board or looking at a mid-late 2nd round pick (i.e. playing in the G League) because of obvious, but correctable, flaws in your game - defense, passing - it would be completely foolish not to come back. Play one more year for a coach who has a proven track record of getting guys in the league, work your ass off on defense, passing and decision-making, and then come out next year with a real shot at the first round $$.
Think Poole's sensitivity towards those questioning his shot selection means he's gone, either to the draft or transfer.
a transfer makes zero financial or practical sense in developing game. It would be europe before transfer
I’m not up on everything that’s been said, but fathers don’t always speak for their sons.
No offense intended, but if you expect Poole to be back I think your eyes and ears are deceiving you. I think there is a 1% chance that Poole is back at Michigan next year, and that may be on the high side.
Agree. Poole isn't a college system player. He is better off training in NBA style leagues which will showcase his talents.
Poole's gone my guy.
The only way Poole comes back is if Beilein can convince him the offense will be different next year.
Why would Poole want to come back and play in an offense that has the same problems that we saw this year? Can Coach Beilein convince Poole that Simpson will improve enough as an outside shooter to improve the spacing?
Derrick Walton, Jr. was also likely in Franz's ear last season in Germany.
Only tangentially on the subject, did anyone else watching Texas Tech v MSU and Virginia think "Wow, Matt Moody would have looked awfully good on Michigan's team this year?
When I first heard his name I was like is that the same moody? Then instantly remembered is was, and wish he had landed with the boys, ah well.
I don't remember the details. How close was it to happening?
Mooney would have looked awesome in Maize n Blue! And fit in perfectly with our defensive concepts.
wasn't UM pushing hard for Guy also?
Michigan was recruiting Kyle Guy pretty hard. I believe he was one of the first wave of offer when his class was eligible to get an official offer.
I know we don't know the lives of the players, etc., but it's still frustrating to lose players who aren't slotted to go in the first round. I'm not saying they shouldn't go. I'm just saying it's frustrating. Why don't these guys think of me, a perfect stranger?!
That said, I hope Wagner comes on board. He looks like a good fit in terms of shooting, basketball IQ, and being a Wagner.
Well I will be that guy and say, to stay in college... What I wouldn't do to be able to go back to college again... The NBA can wait...money isn't everything. Lewan chose well...
April 11th, 2019 at 10:22 PM ^
Eh. Money isn't everything but the NBA isn't normal money. If you're talking about getting laid, I'm sure NBA players do just fine with that too.
What about Wilson as a starter?
By all accounts it sounds like he's plug and play and has a very good chance to be a productive starter at the 3, right?
What has been said about him by people in the know (endless motor, etc) is that he's a good shooter, highly skilled, smart college ready player (he's 6'8, 215 lbs same as Iggy).
Body-wise it doesn't sound like Wagner is as far along, perhaps skill-wise he'd be ahead of Wilson though. Seems like the rest of the guys here at the 3/4 are depth plays, which is good, but I like what I'm hearing about Wilson.
Wagner is 6'7 going on 6'8 and 180... thats 5-10 pounds less than Staukus and Lavert currently.
I think Wagner would be ahead game wise and physical wise would be fine maybe even at the 2.
Wilson could start, but might be a bit deer in head lights
It doesn't sound like Wilson will be deer-in-the-headlights is what I'm submitting, at least based on his recruiting profile.
Freshmen come in and be productive all the time. He sounds like he has a very good chance to be in that category.
Just want the best for these kids but even the experts are NOT feeling it ... so other factors? Get it.
Lets get this new blue wave on board.
Let me ask you something about Jordan Poole. Does he look like the type of kid who wants to play in a restrained shooting system?
I'll ask it another way. Would Jordan Poole want to make 5 out of 9 shots and score 18 pts at UM or shoot 2-17 and score 7 pts in another league and get paid some cash?
Isn't Poole an academic all B1G? It would seem he might see some value in education.
I'd bank on Wagners mom and dad to ease their son to Michigan, after the experience the family had. Gotta let a kid be a kid...who wants to grow up early and live in hotels as a semi pro? I wouldn't....wishful thinking...but true nonenthless. His mom was treated as a queen here, too. I like our chances.
Staff also kicking the tires on guard Christian Keeling, a grad transfer from Charleston Southern that averaged nearly 19ppg and 38% from distance last year. Hopefully a visit materializes.
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