[Bryan Fuller]

Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Western Michigan
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon EDT
THE LINE	Vegas: M–27.5 S&P+: M–25.7
TELEVISION	FS1
TICKETS	free on the board
WEATHER	Mostly Cloudy, 67°F to 70° with slight chance of rain

Overview:

P.J. Fleck departed last year after a run to the Cotton Bowl catapulted him to a Big Ten job, and his lawyer made sure the #RowTheBoat thing went with him. Taking his place was Tim Lester, the former Syracuse QB/passing game coordinator whose one year as Purdue de facto OC failed to save Darrell Hazell. Lester reunited some coaching buddies from his own days at WMU then shuffled around jobs this past offseason. Lester's tight end binky of the '90s Joe Moreland came on as running game coordinator then flipped to passing game coordinator. Former Lloyd Carr assistant Terry Malone was named running backs coach. Defensive coordinator Tim Daoust and co-coordinator/DL coach Lou Esposito are both in their second WMU stints. And because a hashtag slogan is needed, #LetsRide was adopted.

The new arrangement of the deck chairs probably won't affect the Broncos half as much as their players getting healthy, and a wave of Fleck recruits growing into their roles. What should have been that Wile E. Coyote season was ruined by injuries: 20 players saw their seasons end prematurely, give or take a medshirt redshirt on a couple of freshmen. A 6-6 season ended in the Glass Bowl, which unfortunately is what they call the place they play the Toledo-WMU rivalry and not a new bowl game you haven't heard of.

Now with a few key pieces of the offense and most of the defense graduated, WMU seems to be settling into a team that's fun to watch for everyone except those with skin in the game. Both the offense and defense are explosive, and it's entirely by design. They lost their first game to Syracuse by falling behind 34-7 early in the 2nd quarter, charging back to within 6 points, then crumbling down the stretch, losing 55-42.

Run Offense vs WMU

This was a bad run defense last year (122nd to S&P+) and judging by the Syracuse game it's gotten far worse. So much of last week was garbage time with the backup QB handing off that the 5.4 YPC the Broncos gave up last week isn't quite representative. Orange QB Eric Dungey ran for 200 yards on 15 carries (13.3 YPC) and only one was a long TD. On film this looked to me like mostly a linebackers problem:

The linebackers rotate a bunch and none of them are much good at reading and reacting. The best is WLB/HSP Drake Spears, who got tossed from the game last week as part of the fight in the 3rd quarter, and is listed behind true sophomore Treshaun Hayward in this week's game notes. MLB Corvin Moment, a redshirt freshman, isn't good for much more than blitzes since he thinks he's instinctive and isn't. Regular SLB Alex Grace is the opposite: he's patient and gets a lot of tackles, but he's also 6'1"/220, easy to push around, and liable to get himself in the wrong gap while he's trying to do the math.

The defensive ends are all between 230 and 240 pounds, the linebackers are all 220, and after losing their nose guard for the season in spring the DTs are a recent offensive line convert and two undersized underclassmen. WMU tries to make up for this by blitzballing into the line or running a ton of stunts and blitzes, and often those do manage to interrupt running games. They also tend to open up huge holes when somebody runs himself out of the gap and the next guy is way too small to fight his way into it. The safeties line up hyper-aggressively—like at 5 to 6 yards—and the linebackers suck up like whoa on play action. The result is a lot of plays that get 1 or 2 grind-it-out yards, and a lot of big plays.

This is a much better matchup for Michigan's running game than last week. WMU is not built to stand up to a heavy Power rushing attack up front, and neither do they have the linebackers so adept at slashing into the blocking scheme. Michigan punished Minnesota's hyper-aggression last year by going jumbo and that seems likely to win Michigan's backs many trips to the secondary. Since that's happening 2 yards past the line of scrimmage, what happens from there is up to them.

KEY MATCHUP: Higdon and Evans vs a safety in the face, and all the yards behind him.

[Hit the JUMP for a plea to caveman]

Pass Offense vs WMU

Graduation took two star cornerbacks away, and the return of SS Justin Tranquill (yes Drue's brother) from his third(!!!) ACL surgery plus a Syracuse grad transfer are not enough to make up for those losses. They play a ton of man defense with MAC defenders, the linebackers suck up like whoah on play-action, and Syracuse's big guy just had a career day running by them. Collins and DPJ should have plenty of chances to get behind the secondary, if Michigan can get the ball to them.

But that's the trick. The payoff to all of the blitzing and stunting and safeties in the linebacker zone-ing is the ball has to get out quickly if it's to get out at all. The Broncos also have at least four very decent pass rushers in SAM/edge HSP Najee Clayton, a Rutgers transfer by the way, senior SDE Eric Assoua, who was once a Don Brown target at BC, and the WDE rotation of Ali Fayad and Antonio Balaban. WMU doesn't actually generate many sacks with these guys because the DTs don't get much push and the ball gets out quickly. However they're often happy to make your quarterback launch fades off his back foot when he sees all that pressure, or better yet hit a dumpoff guy who's not ready for it. The OLBs are expecting screens and play those fairly well. If you're willing and able to bomb them, it's game over.

Of course Michigan's got their own problems with instant pressure, given the tackles are either the same guys we saw against Notre Dame or freshmen. Shea's going to be under pressure, sure, but his options when that occurs should be much better this time.

KEY MATCHUP: Catch the bombs.

Run Defense vs WMU

Because Western Michigan was playing catch-up for 48 minutes we didn't get to see much of their running game. Schematically, it looks a lot like Ohio State's:

They didn't get to run as much in this game because they spent 80% of it in comeback mode but of the 21 run plays I charted we got:

• 7 zone reads
• 3 split zones
• 3 inside zones
• 3 power runs
• 2 outside zones, and
• 1 each of Inverted Veer, Speed Option, and a draw (on a "let's kill the half" play)

The split zones are not quite SZ—more like Georgia's "power" play where the H-back acts like a puller and can opt to ignore the end even if he's crashing. Like split zone however the QB uses the threat of a zone read to keep that DE from crashing too quickly. It's the best use of Keenoy and Juriga, who get to use their athleticism and technique to create a huge hole for a big 2i-tech nose tackle to close down.

By the offense's design I can guess there's a bunch of RPOs planned in there too. However this quarterback isn't a major run threat. Two backs do most of the carrying. Jamauri Bogan I called "Mike Hart but slow" in the Foe Film; he has good vision and a low center of balance. The scatback, Levante Bellamy, seems the most likely to make a guy miss and pick up a chunk.

Like Notre Dame, the strength of the line is centered at—uh—center and guard, though the star right guard is more of a finesse guy. It's center John Keenoy, an NFL prospect, who could cause the most trouble. Given the next section Michigan is going to want to be able to keep their secondary focused on preventing the bomb, and their OLBs on forcing the ball inside. If the disappointing debut of Dwumfour and Marshall becomes a trend, that strategy no longer works.

KEY MATCHUP: The DTs versus stay in your gap!

Pass Defense vs WMU

So Lester is very similar to P.J. Fleck in one regard: he wants to send a lot of little receivers downfield and scorch you over the top. The Syracuse secondary proved entirely insufficient at stopping this:

The other bedbug is 5'9"/170 receiver D'Wayne Eskridge, who's a very good route runner and will stretch your safeties. He's all the more terrifying because Wassink can hit him in stride…

And because focusing on him can create more space for the actual slot receiver.

Eskridge has always been a hit-big-or-miss type but he had 8 catches for 240 yards and 2 TDs last week, which is half of his production from all of last year. Again: Caveat Orange. Lavert Hill had his worst game since becoming a starter against the thunder gods they keep shaking from the sky over South Bend but his worst days are better than any day a Syracuse corner's had in a long time. Stick him on Eskridge and it's back to can Michigan control slot fades to a true freshman, even if that guy's name is Bird.

The other starting receiver is none other than Drake Harris. Harris was targeted plenty last week but never got much separation and didn't show any of the Braylonesque leaping ability that made him such a hot recruit (and high school superstar) all those hamstrings ago. Western Michigan uses an odd couple of tight ends—one's 270-pound bowling ball and the other is a recent wide receiver convert. The former is mostly a blocking fullback, while the latter dropped all four targets that hit him in the hands last week. The most dangerous part of their mesh game is Bellamy out of the backfield, but that's really more about the running game.

KEY MATCHUP: Kinnel and Metellus vs. Slot Fades. There will be many.

Intangibles

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​#LetsRide

Cheap Thrills

Worry if…

• We don't see James Hudson
• We don't see Jaylen Mayfield or Andrew Stueber
• We do and we see why JBB and Runyan started

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Michigan runs power for an entire drive
• Patterson fakes a read counter option pitch then Forcier's a guy's ankles
• WMU has to put two safeties back

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for MAC Team Two Years Removed from High, –1 for …That Just Gave Up 55 points to Syracuse, –1 for …At Home, +1 for Michigan's Tackle Woes)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for Don't Lose to a MAC Team)

Loss will cause me to… Award 500 points to every Harbaugh-hating troll on our board and give the mods a weekend off.

Win will cause me to… Pay very close attention to the tackles on replays

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Western Michigan isn't a bad MAC team but Michigan is the wrong kind of defense to try their bomb-it stuff on. Their aggressive defense is like that because it hides flaws that Harbaugh knows how to exploit. This is the Rutgers-Minnesota-Maryland stretch kind of team; if they make it competitive it's because luck awards crazy balls-out tactics sometimes, or the program is in worse shape than it was last year and there's still SMU week to fix it.

Also YOU GUYS YOU GUYS GUESS WHAT SAP AND I GET TO HOLD THE BANNER TOMORROW!

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Michigan goes back to the caveman offense and it's pleasantly effective
• Patterson gets >200 yards on <15 attempts
• Michigan, 34-8