Essentials

WHAT	#4 Michigan (8-0) vs Michigan State(3-4)
WHERE	Venue By 4M Stadium Piscataway, NJ
WHEN	7:30 Eastern
THE LINE	M –25.5
TELEVISION	BTN (Gaudin/Butt)
TICKETS	From $221.
WEATHER	partly cloudy, minimal chance of rain minimal wind 70 dropping to mid 60s(!!!)

Overview

What's the funniest way to say Rutgers? I say "Grubbers" but reasonable minds may disagree. "Ruggers" is good, "Rubturs" better, but "Grubbers" just has that je ne sais quoi, you know?

Uh… right. Cable Subscribers are 4-4 thanks to nonconference wins against BC and Temple that came by a total of three points. They outgained Iowa but lost 27-10 thanks to two pick-sixes, got trashed by OSU, outgained Nebraska but lost 14-13, beat Indiana in a "never speak of this again" game, and then got trashed by Minnesota.

Run Offense vs Rutgers

Corum scuffled in this game last year [Barron]

This is may or may not be a test. Rutgers checks in with near-elite drill-down numbers. They're 9th nationally in line yards allowed, sandwiched right in between #8 OSU and #11 Michigan. They're 8th in opportunity rate allowed; they're 22nd in stuff rate.

However, the only offense they've played that ranks in the top 50 in SP+ is Ohio State. They got dumptrucked, and Minnesota did the same thing. OSU, last seen struggling badly with Mannyball against PSU, put up 252 on just 34 carries; Minnesota put up 253 on 53. The divide between "can run the ball on Rutgers" and "can't" has been stark. The only other team to scrape above 100 yards on the ground was Iowa, and they needed 38 carries to do it. But, I mean, Blake Corum et al.

Last year this game was a frustrating slog largely because Haskins and Corum combined for 109 yards on 33 carries with a long of 13. The same ground game that detonated Iowa and OSU to end the year did that. Hell, Rutgers did better than Georgia did on a YPC basis. This goes back to the Schiano-ball stunting that Seth wrote a whole post about in 2020. (COVID year made us all insane.) If you either can't pick up the stunts or don't have the oomph to carve out lanes when someone is slanting into you hard, Rutgers will delete you. If you can, all of a sudden there are big lanes and not a whole lot of second-level cavalry on the way.

That didn't happen last year, but not entirely for Rutgers-related reasons. Seth's UFR came out with a –14 RPS number because Michigan got up two touchdowns and called it a day. Seth was a little cranky after:

Still:

• Zero orbit motions or bubble threats to occupy a SAM or safety.
• Zero end-arounds/reverses or the like.
• Zero jets.
• Zero screens.
• Zero offensive touches for A.J. Henning.
• One spread alignment that worked, then they went away from it.
• Zero QB keeps on zone reads until they kept on a bad read.

What I did count were (as called) 16 inside power runs (including one RPO), 11 inside and split zone runs, 9 short pass combos (including the other RPO), 4 midrange pass combos, 2 play-action passes, 2 bash runs, 1 QB sneak, and one very bad screen version of split flow. If you’re going to generously count that as an edge attack, that’s 3/53 plays that threatened to punish Rutgers for playing unsound to stop interior runs.

This may have been one of the last Gattis gameplans. McNamara zone reads were a big part of the late going, and those were handoffs.

Rutgers is very light on the defensive front and Michigan has the ability to option guys better with McCarthy; also all that duo they're running has a built-in way to punish folks who get too nosy in the middle—the Corum bounce. Alex had some clips of Minnesota running it to excellent success. I expect buckets of duo in this game and for Michigan to exorcise some minor demons from last year.

KEY MATCHUP: CORUM vs THE DISTANCE. So close last week; maybe this week?

Pass Offense vs Rutgers

[Barron]

This has also been a statistically strong unit that has largely gone against total mugs. Still, 6.3 YPA, 9 TD, and 9 INTs isn't something MSU would pull off against this schedule. There's something vaguely competent lurking in there. Rutgers forced CJ Stroud into a line that is eerily similar to JJ McCarthy's line from last week: 15/25, 161 yards, 6.4 YPA, 2 TD, 1 INT. Like the MSU game this happened as OSU was obliterating them on the ground, for context. Still, that's Stroud's worst YPA day of the season and only Notre Dame is even in the same ballpark.

How much does that mean? I don't know. Rutgers has all of 25 attempts against a QB even vaguely in JJ McCarthy's territory, and Stroud is a couple notches beyond right now. Everyone else they've faced has some of the worst QB play in America.

FWIW, Rutgers has a very bizarre sack split. On standard downs they're 34th in the country; on passing downs their sack rate nearly halves. They're 126th at getting to the QB on passing downs. This does not seem to be because they're laying back and rushing three a lot; Alex caught their game against OSU and it featured tons of blitzing:

Sending the house worked a decent bit against a pressure-prone QB like Stroud and I'd expect Rutgers to be a bit blitzy against JJ McCarthy because otherwise they don't get a ton of organic pressure. Lewis flashed against Nebraska but showed me nothing against Ohio State. The same is true for Bailey as a pass rusher and the interior guys. Blitzing and stunting seem like their best shots to get home.

That might just be a coincidence—sacks are low-frequency events. It is extremely weird to see in any case.

Alex thinks Michigan can just cram it down Rutgers' throat and they probably will, but with time before OSU (and Illinois) running short there's an argument for opening it up against a potentially solid team and seeing how McCarthy does when playcalling is closer to balanced.

KEY MATCHUP:

Run Defense vs Rutgers

[Barron]

Isiah Pacheco is finally gone and Rutgers turned to Samuel Brown the Fifth(!), a freshman out of Philly. Brown was set to grab the full-time job after some rotation, but Rutgers announced before the Minnesota game that he was out for the year with a foot injury. Sophomores Kyle Monangai and Al-Shadee Salaam step into the void. The Alex verdict is that they're just guys:

Rutgers didn't run the ball much against Minnesota and any clips inevitably turn into clips of the OL because none of these RBs make yards for themselves. … When the run game functions, it's because the OL is opening holes. Clips like these two, of the RBs doing anything on their own, are few and far between with Brown out of the picture.

Meanwhile the Rutgers OL checked in with just one cyan, but that hasn't been enough to do a whole lot in Big Ten play. Rutgers has cranked out almost exactly 3 YPC, with a bump up to 3.8 against Indiana and a bump down to 2.3 against Minnesota, after Brown was lost of the year. The drill-down stats are uniformly ugly, almost all in the triple-digits. This is a version of a ground game Michigan has seen before against Indiana and MSU, and the main question is whether or not one of the linebackers gets in the wrong gap and Michigan gets cracked for a chunk run or two.

QB Gavin Wimsatt does have some ability to run, but he was knocked out of the Minnesota game on a blistering hit that is yet another reason to ban baseball slides…

…so while he's been cleared to play one dollar says that Rutgers doesn't run him much, if at all. Maybe if it's competitive into the second half and Schiano sees an opportunity to snatch a massive win. This might come as some relief since last year Noah Vedral running was a major problem. FWIW, TE/QB monstrosity Johnny Langan also gets some wildcat snaps.

This should be a lot of first and second down running that doesn't get much and then third and long time.

KEY MATCHUP: UH YEAH THE LINEBACKERS vs GAP FITS. We'll go with that.

Pass Defense vs Rutgers

look we don't have any pictures of them completing passes ok [Barron]

Rutgers has handed the keys to redshirt freshman Gavin Wimsatt, a top 250 recruit who took enrolling early to a whole new level when he played the first three games of his senior season and then enrolled at Rutgers last September. Despite having more recruiting profile than the rest of the QB depth chart put together, Wimsatt's introduction to college football has been rough. He's completing 40% of his passes for under 5 YPA and he's got three interceptions, and that's with the vast bulk of his playing time coming against Minnesota, Wagner, and Boston College.

Wimsatt is patently not ready, as Alex detailed:

Right now Wimsatt is limited in what he can do, but they're preparing him for the future by getting him playing time, which means Wimsatt is trying throws he is not accurate enough to make yet, or seasoned enough to read correctly. That is going to lead to intercept-able throws, and it's up to Michigan to actually turn those into takeaways.

However, there is a hypothetical future Wimsatt that's a very good college quarterback and Rutgers is trying to fast-forward that process as much as possible. Alex charted zero screens for him. They're trying to run a big-boy offense with him, unlike pretty much every other Rutgers quarterback since Gary Nova.

Wimsatt has been cleared after the headshot, as mentioned. If he can't go it'll be Noah Vedral again, and it'll be the all-screens College Crappe offense that Michigan saw for the duration of the non-conference season.

The Rutgers OL is middling at pass protection and holds onto its middling status even when we get to passing downs. Since Vedral and Evan Simon took a lot of QB snaps this year that may be a sign that they're screening it even on passing downs, but we can probably assert that this is not an Indiana-level disaster zone. Their transfers (four of the five starters) are at least from D-I. Left guard JD DiRenzo is an FCS transfer but was a third-team All American last year. This is not a West Texas A&M situation.

The receivers are largely the same guys. Aron Cruickshank is your slot guy and screen target; Shameen Jones returns as an all-around outside WR; WVU transfer Sean Ryan is basically Shameen Jones. They're both from Brooklyn, even.

Rutgers is going to boot a lot to give Wimsatt half-field reads and protect him from blindside shots; dropback passing will be a nightmare with "ooh, maybe" shots sprinkled in, and Wimsatt will probably complete around half his passes with ugly yardage numbers.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN SAFETIES vs THREE BALLS THAT NESTLE INTO THEIR HANDS. Rutgers is going for it, man. No more blizzard of screens. Still a lot of Rutgers, though, so there will be opportunities to run something back.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Rutgers special teams are fine, mostly, but they gave up a kick return touchdown on the opening kickoff to Indiana and also allowed Iowa, of all teams, to get a chunk KO return on them. They rank 128th in the country on kickoff efficiency because of these two events and three kickoffs out of bounds.

Adam Korsak returns at punter. He lost his incredible streak of avoiding touchbacks this year but still ranks second to Bryce Baringer in net yards at 43.8 because opponents have totaled a remarkable 3 returns on his 41 punts, and those returns have gone –8 yards. This year's Big Ten may have the greatest collection of punters in college football history.

Kicker Jude McAtamney is 10/14 on the season, has missed an XP, and doesn't have a big leg—only 42% of his KOs are touchbacks. He's from Derry, though, so he's got that going for him. Unfortunately, Valentino Ambrosio transferred to Tulane, significantly denting Rutgers's reserves of absurdly Italian people.

Aron Cruickshank returns as the punt returner; he is moderately dangerous but has not done a whole lot aside from one touchdown against Delaware last year.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• A version of Gavin Wimsatt wearing shades pops out of a time machine and chucks the freshman one back into it. Not just because of time paradoxes, because maybe Future Gavin Wimsatt is good. He's wearing shades, after all.
• Michigan's ground game struggles with Stunty McGee over there.
• A special detachment of Michigan State media personalities rappels into the stadium at halftime wielding the Sword of Whatabout.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Michigan demonstrates their ground-game level up.
• Kick return touchdown?
• McCarthy spooky accuracy back.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Quarterback Putting Up Robby Schoenhoft Numbers, –1 for Can't Run, –1 for Worse SP+ Offense Than Iowa, –1 for Even Screwing Up Kickoffs, –1 for Not Remotely Competitive With Minnesota, Hmm, Wonder If We've Played Anyone Like That This Year, +1 for Sort Of Gave Michigan The Business Last Year, +1 for Don't Get Cocky, –1 for Barely Beat BC, Hmm, Wonder If We've Played Anyone Like That This Year.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Remember That Thing With The Teddy Bear On The Football Field, +1 for Fence The Garden, +1 for I Would Not Be Real Optimistic About OSU After A Rutgers Loss, +1 for CFP Aspirations, +1 for Not A Real Conference Member)

Loss will cause me to… put on the tape of 78-0 and watch it while ugly crying.

Win will cause me to… continue analyzing every single football related thing via the lens of "maybe we can beat Ohio State."

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

I mean. We've seen this game before several times this year. This will be an interesting test for the offense, and another by-the-numbers near shutout for the defense.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• It's a replay of the MSU game what with the steamrolling with duo; both backs go over 100.
• Makari Paige interception.
• Noah Vedral plays in the second half.
• Michigan, 37-6