Essentials

WHAT	#5 Michigan (6-0) vs #10 Penn State(5-0)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	M –7
TELEVISION	FOX (Johnson/Klatt)
TICKETS	From $155.
WEATHER	low 50s, partly cloudy 0% chance of rain 15 mph wind

Overview

Penn State's had a successful, but weird, year thus far. They opened up with a road win at Purdue in which Sean Clifford looked like the broken down version of himself—not a good sign in week one—before an 80-yard game winning touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter. That was a true coinflip; PSU had a 51% win expectancy according to the numbers guys.

A walkover of Ohio was followed by Penn State going into Jordan-Hare and stomping Auburn 41-12, which looks like a hell of a statement until you look at Auburn's season. CMU (currently 1-5) was up next; that game was dead even on yardage and the Chips were in it until they gave away a touchdown by muffing a punt at their own seven. Finally, PSU squeezed by Northwestern 17-7 in a rainstorm that wasn't bad enough to completely turn off the passing game but did make things extremely silly. The teams combined for eight turnovers and Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski was denied on a QB sneak on fourth and goal when his footing gave out.

So we suspect Penn State is good, but just how good is up in the air. They've played even games against Purdue, who is maybe your favorite to win the West, and a horrible MAC team. They beat up Auburn just like Georgia did, and they picked a good time to have a very bad game against the hapless Northwestern Wildcats.

One item of note: this is a relatively rare game in that the touchdown spread significantly deviates from fancystat picks. SP+, which moves lines these days, has Michigan by 12.

Run Offense vs Penn State

Corum missed this game last year [Fuller]

It's fair to say that Penn State is relatively untested here. The three P5 teams they've played are Purdue, Northwestern, and Auburn. Those are currently the #93, #119, and #76 teams in YPC. Michigan is 15th. This may not cover it. Auburn line yards: #114. Stuff rate: #123. Purdue line yards: #107, stuff rate: #93. Michigan doesn't really move from a place relatively high up in the college football firmament when you hit the drill-down stats. They are not a blazingly elite ground game, but they are obviously on another level from anyone PSU has played to date. (And if they stop sabotaging themselves…)

Now, Penn State is a reason all those teams are languishing in the rankings, but this could be somewhat similar to the Iowa game in which a team comes in expecting to shut it down and finds out that they're going to have to add bodies if they want to stop getting walked downfield. Alex thought so after watching Auburn get some chunks:

Auburn RB Tank Bigsby, one of the few good things about that wretched team, is actually not a bad comp for Corum in terms of talent level (Bigsby is high on NFL Draft boards), even if stylistically and size-wise they're different. … The general rushing success of the team was muted because Auburn's offensive line is terribly coached and organized but Bigsby did run for 4.3 YPC (Hunter for 3.2 YPC). They only gave those two 14 combined carries because Auburn is not good and trailed most of the game but I saw enough in that tiny little window to believe Michigan should have some degree of success on the ground, particularly against the non-Mustipher DTs and with a RB who is adept and getting hidden yards.

PJ Mustipher missed last year game with an injury but returns; he will be a test. Alex noted that the other DT spot features a lot of rotation and has a guy who might be a dude down the road but probably isn't there yet:

Next to Mustipher is the rotation between Dvon Ellies on standard downs and Hakeem Beamon on passing downs. I don't have much to say on Ellies other than that he's a guy and Michigan should be able to move him around a decent amount. Beamon is more interesting, a 264 lb. DT with some get-off. PSU features him on their rush package.

As we'll see in the next section, PSU has some pieces but they only have two guys who are reasonably complete DL who stay on the field for most snaps. IDing and attacking personnel will be important. At-the-line checks will have an outsized impact on the game.

The LB level does not have an out-and-out star on it, unusual for LBU, and again they have a lot of rotation at one spot. At LB that usually means you're a little leery of that spot.

I have to mention the tips here: if Michigan has indeed been trying to build something from their extreme tendencies to run out of tight-end motion and from the pistol, now's the time to unleash it.

KEY MATCHUP: BLAKE CORUM vs WHAT NEXT? Can he pull another +4 rabbit out of the hat? Michigan probably doesn't need that, but it would be a boost.

Pass Offense vs Penn State

Wilson vs Porter was a key matchup last year [Barron]

First, we expect Roman Wilson to play.

Here's the test. If JJ McCarthy can remain cool and collected and move Michigan down the field against this defense, the training wheels are off and he's headed for a Heisman finalist kind of campaign this year or next. Penn State's pass defense is elite, and it starts with Joey Porter Jr:

#PennState CB Joey Porter Jr. in man coverage this season (via @TruMediaSports):

• 161 snaps (five games)
• 75 passing yards against
• 36.4% completion pct. against
• 9 PBUS (2nd-highest in the nation)
• 8 completions allowed
• 3.4 yards allowed per attempt

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) October 14, 2022

Meanwhile Porter's colleague, Cass Tech alum Kalen King, is the second-best corner in the P5 per Pro Football Focus—yes, their line grading makes little sense but this aligns with the eye test, NFL talk, and 9 PBUs this year. Per Bill Connelly, both starting corners have forced incompletions on more than 40% of targets. That's nuts.

On top of that, PFF loves defensive end (and inexplicable Maryland transfer) Chop Robinson. PSU's sack numbers aren't great but Connelly's deeper numbers indicate that may be just some bad luck:

PSU blitzes a lot and pressures quarterbacks constantly (eighth in pressure rate) without actually bringing them down (98th in sack rate).

Robinson is grading out at elite levels and Michigan may not want to (or be able to) provide help on him since PSU blitzes a ton and having lots of guys in routes is going to be important against a team that can really cover. OTOH: Robinson is a rotational player. He's Okie, basically. Nick Tarburton is usually the WDE on standard downs. He had one sack and one hurry last year in 13 games and eight starts; he's got one sack this year. Michigan would do well to open it up on standard downs.

They would also do well to go after the safeties and nickel. Alex didn't think a ton of Daequan Hardy, who was the primary nickel against  Auburn, and since then PSU has gone into a DB blender. Meanwhile at S Jaquan Brisker is gone and his replacement is still a little up in the air.

KEY MATCHUP: ROMAN WILSON AND LUKE SCHOONMAKER vs WORKING THE MIDDLE OF THE FIELD. Michigan has an advantage in that they do not have to go up against PSU's excellent starting corners too much. Schoonmaker's been a frequent target since All went out and Roman Wilson has been one JJ McCarthy recalibration from being a long touchdown machine.

Run Defense vs Penn State

Keyvone Lee returns but is sort of kind of supplanted [Barron]

It's Penn State so here's another phalanx of massively hyped running back recruits who are mostly going to transfer somewhere next year, as it has been since Saquon Barkley left. This year's lead back is true freshman five-star Nicholas Singleton, who ripped off two Ty-Isaac-style long runs against Auburn—for people who are not absurd recruitniks this means a large man ran very fast without having to cut at all because the defense was notional—and has the kind of size and speed combination that gets you ranked inside the top 50. The rest of his game is still sort of up in the air. Alex liked his ability to weave through traffic…

Against a team like Purdue, that was causing all sorts of havoc for the PSU OL, Singleton got to flash an ability to get yards out of nothing. His stat line, 10 carries for 31 yards, seems ho-hum, but I saw clues that informed why he shredded Auburn two weeks later. Things like this cut and weave before lowering the shoulder to grind out the first down:

Getting one yard with that blocking is an achievement for the RB.

…but something in the PSU offense means they're disposed to wild swings on the ground. Bill Connelly:

…the offense has to come through despite what appears to be a severe matchup disadvantage in the run-blocking department. Nicholas Singleton is enjoying a wildly all-or-nothing freshman campaign -- among 143 FBS players with at least 60 carries, he ranks fifth in yards per carry (7.3) but only 111th in first downs per carry (21%) -- and PSU ranks a ghastly 102nd in rushing success rate.

Their line stats are not as horrific as many of the lines Michigan has faced this year but they are decidedly not great: 83rd in line yards, 112th in opportunity rate, 76th in power success, 74th in stuff rate. This offensive line remains mid, in the parlance of our times.  And in context?

Against CMU (85th in rushing yards allowed per game), Auburn (T-100th), and Ohio (T-100th), PSU was able to rush for 5.2, 6.3, and 6.9 yards per carry. Northwestern's run defense is also bad but they held PSU to 3.8 with the weather effects clouding that game. Against Purdue (20th), PSU was held to 3.1 yards per carry. Michigan, for the record, is 4th in rush yards against per game this season.

Michigan should win this down-to-down, but explosives are a worry.

FWIW, PSU will also rotate in Kaytron Allen and Keyvone Lee, who are more or less four star versions of Singleton: about six foot, about 210-220, nice packages of size and speed, not going to Blake Corum a guy to the ground.

One item of note: Clifford's legs have all but disappeared from the Penn State offense, at least as far as intentional playcalls go. He has just 19 non-sack carries on the year, and a fair chunk of those are either scrambles or short-yardage sneaks. PSU may go back to the well for a big road game against a top-5 opponent, especially if they can't move the ball early; I would bet that PSU tries to signal that Clifford's legs are a factor with a couple calls early and then will try to avoid getting their QB hit. These days when Clifford gets up from a collision he looks impossibly weary. If it's a game in the fourth quarter, though, all bets are off.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN LINEBACKERS vs BUSTED RUN FITS. We saw Indiana rip off a 40-yarder; we've seen chunk runs in most games as the second level does not show up to patch holes in the front with complete reliability. Singleton is a real bad guy to give those opportunities to.

Pass Defense vs Penn State

ow [Barron]

Well, it's Sean Clifford. By now everyone knows what that means: gritty, mobile in the pocket, excellent improviser, erratic. Alex charted the Purdue game and came out with a 59% downfield success rate with 8 inaccurate balls and 4 marginal ones against 15 DO/CAs and a couple scrambles. And that's more or less what he's been every year we've charted him:

I will also post Clifford's previous DSR metrics from FFFFs past: 2019 - 46% (vs Iowa), 2020 - 67%, and 2021 - 62%. Outside of getting hammered by Iowa in 2019, these DSR scores are all very consistent. Clifford is who he is. He's a QB who is fearless and ideal for an offense with leaky pass protection. He's not afraid to get hammered and is crafty enough with his legs to pick up first downs on the ground, extend plays on the move, and throw on the run to receivers who are improvising. Clifford performs better under pressure than your average QB and he's faced a lot of it over the year. He's good enough to drop a few dimes in but is also not the most accurate QB in the world, often culpable for a few really rough mistakes that sometimes end in INTs.

He throws off platform well and has a well-earned reputation as one of the toughest players in college football.

Therein is the rub for the Penn State offense. They have never kept Clifford clean. They've improved in this department, with sack rates hovering around 40th after being 60th to 70th, but Clifford's abilities and a heavy dose of WR screens have always kept PSU sack rates artificially low relative to their pass protection's impact on their offense. At least this year they appear to have found a left tackle in Olu Fashanu, a redshirt sophomore who is already drawing NFL attention after just six starts. He leads Dane Brugler's NFL-draft-centric look at the M-PSU game:

Best prospect: Olu Fashanu, LT, Penn State*

Considering Fashanu has started only six games at the college level, it might feel premature to call him the top NFL prospect here. But the redshirt sophomore has played really well in those six games, and I am a believer in his traits. At 6-foot-6 and 320 pounds, Fashanu has outstanding body control and hand strength, which will be tested against Michigan’s deep defensive line.

That qualifies as a Hot Take given that PSU has a near-lock first round CB, but to have a Penn State tackle anywhere near NFL discussions is a rare thing. The Nittany Lions have had just two OTs picked in the NFL draft in the last 15 years, and Rasheed Walker barely made the cut as a seventh-rounder. (FWIW, Michigan's count over that time period is 7.)

Unfortunately for PSU, a left tackle does not an offensive line make; Alex thought right tackle Caedan Wallace was "still a sieve" against Purdue. Mike Morris and Eyabi Okie will test him.

The PSU WR corps lost Jahan Dotson to the NFL, returns Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and adds WKU transfer Mitchell Tinsley. TE Brenton Strange is also making more of an impact this year with Theo Washington marginalized. Washington did some damage against Michigan last year with four catches on five targets and 92 yards, a trade Michigan happily made as they held Dotson to 61 yards on 17(!) targets. He's an inside/outside guy without much stature but a dude who can go. Tinsley is more of the bigger vertical threat, and he's on NFL draft radars, albeit more as a reliable guy who you might get to operate underneath. The Draft Network:

This is a big-time RAC threat … lack of raw gifts initially as a player has promoted good habits as a route-runner and in all phases of the position …strong hands and [is] a reliable catcher of the ball in traffic. …marginal physical skills

He had an 87-catch season at passing-mad WKU last year and has a ton of sample size as a result. Michigan should be able to keep up with him; will he make contested catches?

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN PASS RUSH vs CLIFFORD'S ACHING BONES. Nobody goes off a cliff like Sean Clifford these days; if Michigan can hit him—not even sack him—frequently early his top is going to spin out of alignment. He might get it back for a Heroic Drive late, but if Michigan's already up two scores that won't be enough.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Penn State's idling at 22nd in the FEIST rankings largely due to being a version of Special Teams Iowa. Punting is winning for PSU. Their unit is fifth nationally thanks to sixth-year Colgate transfer Barney Amor, who is 10th nationally in net punting. Only 5 of his 23 attempts have been returned and he's got just one touchback against 14 balls inside the 20 this year.

When it comes to the offense, though, there are problems. Kicker Jake Pinegar has been around since 2018, when he went 16/24 as a freshman and finished 99th in field goal efficiency. He was 11/12 the next year but then ended up losing his job to Jordan Stout over the course of the next two years, and Stout wasn't exactly gangbusters. Last year PSU finished 90th in FGE with Stout taking 23 of the 25 attempts (Pinegar was 1/2); Stout also missed a couple extra points. This year Pinegar has picked up where he left off. He's 4/6 on the season and has missed two XPs. 66th in FGE is a win at this point but he's more likely to miss than Moody by some distance.

Penn State return units have been quiet. Parker Washington has taken over for Jahan Dotson at PR, where he's getting in a couple returns per game that go about 9 yards each. Singleton returns most kicks and has not broken anything of note.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Chop Robinson is basically Ebikite from last year vs Hayes.
• Michigan's giving PSU straight ahead rush lanes.
• Those run tells are un-addressed.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• The Frames Factor comes into play.
• Roman Wilson's having a day.
• McCarthy isn't phased.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Dang That's A Secondary, +1 for A Bonafide Team, +1 for Talent Up And Down The Roster, +1 for Could Get Outpunted, –1 for FRAMES, –1 for Run Drill-Down Stats Are Busted, +1 for Coming Off A Bye, –1 for Wobbly Kicking Situation, –1 for Spooky Accurate QB Versus Not That, –1 for Penn State At Inhabited Michigan Stadium Is A Wreck)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Top Ten Matchup, +1 for Narrative Busting, +1 for Playoff Chances, +1 for Yeah This Is Kind Of A Rivalry, +1 for Biggest Hurdle Left Before 11-0.)

Loss will cause me to… nuke Altoona. You've always been a thorn in my side, Altoona! No more! Named after some Jets receiver from Techmo Bowl, that's too silly to live.

Win will cause me to… ok, Seth, you can say Penn State isn't coached very well on the podcast.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

The secondary vs WR battle will probably play out similarly, as Michigan's WRs are going to be in tough just like the PSU WRs. Who do you trust to fit it in small windows? McCarthy. Meanwhile, who's more likely to make something out of nothing on the ground? Corum. These are not absolutes—I can see PSU's large fast guys loping downfield with Michigan linebackers trailing flames out of their undercarriages—but probables.

The Penn State OL still looks like the relative weak point of both these teams, and we'll find out whether Michigan's pass rush is real. A dollar says it is, and Penn State gets a few explosives but can't drive the field much.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• Involuntary Drew Allar playing time.
• McCarthy hits a deep ball to Wilson.
• Michigan gets a wheel route for a huge play.
• Michigan, 32-19