Essentials

WHAT	Penn State at Michigan	doublewide
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon ET Saturday, November 28
THE LINE	Michigan –2 (Vegas)
TELEVISION	ABC PBP: Dave Pasch Analyst: Mike Golic Reporter: Paul Carcaterra
TICKETS	not this year
WEATHER	sunny, mid-40s 0% chance of rain 10 mph wind

Overview

Penn State is the best 0-5 team in the country. This is not a backhanded slam, it's a warning. PSU's managed to lose to two teams they outgained by 200 yards. They outgained Maryland, and were within spitting distance of Iowa. They have a lot of problems—obviously—but they are not suddenly a doormat Michigan can expect to ease past even in their current state. This is indicated by the less-than-a-field-goal spread.

This game is on ABC? Better post another sickos.

[Hit THE JUMP for dinky dink]

Run Offense vs Penn State

would be nice [Bryan Fuller]

Michigan may get their missing tackle tandem back in this game. Warinner:

“They’re both practicing, so we’re just working seeing how quickly they can come back,” Warinner said. “They’re both getting out there and doing practice reps, so it’s good to see them out there. I won’t say anything other than that, but they are not in the training room during practice. They are on the field in gear working out and we’re moving them along. They want to get back as quickly as they can, so we’ll see when that is. Both or one might be available Saturday.”

From what we've heard Mayfield is the more likely. Even getting one back likely kicks Andrew Stueber down to guard and removes a true freshman from the lineup and would be a big win. Michigan has also settled on Hassan Haskins as its top back and found a little something in the second half against Rutgers after two and a half games of utter desolation.

Michigan goes up against a unit that clobbered Indiana's ground game and then has settled into a string of mediocre-to-bad performances. Iowa's main backs combined for 35 carries and 179 yards (5.1 YPC); Nebraska averaged 4.2 YPC; Maryland hit exactly 5.0 YPC. Ohio State, of course, detonated them.

The numbers don't match Seth's scouting take on them, which features three stars and a shield on the defensive line:

Strongside end #18 Shaka Toney (+13.5/-5) is having a breakout year after splitting time his career thus far with non-3* versions of himself. It helps to be playing against another breakout DL, #97 PJ Mustipher (+15/-7), who's getting justifiable appreciation at PFF. They also adore NT #55 Antonio Shelton (+7/-3) though that's explainable by PFF's love for DTs who just go upfield, other stuff be damned. Shelton used to be the responsible one so that's a style thing. The backside edge is #28 Jayson Oweh, who's Josh Uche if he was a top-75 recruit who got away from Partridge/Campanile.

Micah Parsons's absence is a big deal, of course, but if you just look at the personnel and their recruiting rankings this should not be a team that's giving up 5 YPC or thereabouts to Big Ten middleweights. Sounds a little like Michigan, except they recruit DTs.

PSU is pretty regular in what they do so Michigan should have some opportunities to actually ID their blocks. Getting them will be much more difficult than it's been in recent weeks, and it's been pretty difficult for various spots on the line. Haskins might be able to make some things right but I'd expect another slog.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN TACKLES vs A RACE TO FITNESS. Even one guy back is a major deal.

Pass Offense vs Penn State

First start [Fuller]

It's the Cade McNamara show until and unless he turns into a pumpkin and gets the hook like Milton did. That means Michigan will have RPOs and screens at their disposal, and may be able to carve out a significant number of yards with underneath and perimeter throws.

PSU's stats here are up and down; 4.7 yards against Indiana and Michael Penix in the opener looks great but anyone watching that came can tell you that was more about Penix missing a blizzard of open throws than anything Penn State was doing. Ohio State (obviously) and Maryland (less obviously) set them on fire; Nebraska was running out Luke McCaffrey as a dual-threat who mostly throws screens; Iowa was limited to 6.6 YPA despite completing 64% of their passes.

PSU's ends and upfield DTs are going to be a problem for pass protection. Stueber has had some issues with top-end pass rushers and he's going to get one here; Barnhart is unproven; Zak Zinter just ended up with 9 pass pro minuses against a DL that has some DT rush similarities to PSU. It'll be hairy, which again emphasizes the RPOs McNamara can apparently run.

Note that PSU corner Tariq Castro-Fields is questionable for this game after missing the last two. Seth charted the other corners them against Nebraska and their lack of downfield passing and thus has little data on if they can play. WOLV-TV (Michigan student-run TV) is reporting that Giles Jackson is out tomorrow, which will be a blow to Michigan since Jackson's been one of Michigan's more reliable options.

KEY MATCHUP: JOSH GATTIS vs HOW MANY WAYS CAN YOU MAKE YARDS WITHOUT LONG DROPBACKS. Saw a little of that on Saturday after McNamara got in. Going to have to ramp it up, even if a tackle makes it back.

Run Defense vs Penn State

good thing he can recruit [Barron]

Penn State has had a horrible run of injuries and retirements at running back, so they are now down to [checks notes] uh… a trio of four-star guys. This is still a blow since Journey Brown had emerged into the clear #1 and Noah Cain the clear #1 after Brown went down. The next up has been Devyn Ford, a top 100 guy a couple years back who's currently scuffling to 3.7 YPC.

Penn State had excellent output against Indiana largely because QB Sean Clifford was running loose; they also clubbed Nebraska. Outings against OSU, Maryland, and Iowa have been varying levels of bad ranging from quite (Maryland) to very (the other two). Given PSU's other OL issues—ton of sacks—you'd think this is traceable back to a malfunctioning offensive line. Seth:

The line remains a mess, though they fixed the most glaring issues from last year by moving forever-starter/turnstile RG #71 Will Fries (+7/-3, –3 pass pro) inside. RS freshman RT #79 Caedan Wallace (+4/-1.5, –2 prot)'s future might also be on the interior; like Fries he's a big pile mover, though this one was the #81 recruit in 2019. There are three more top-100 guys who play. The big one is LT #53 Rasheed Walker (+14.5/-7.5, –4 prot), an athletic donkey-hater. Like Fries, C #62 Michal Menet (+5/-5, –4), the #28 overall player in the 2016 class, has been starting so long that Joe Moorhead one designed a screen-a-thon offense to save Trace McSorley from him. LG #73 Michael Miranda (+10/-7, –7.5) is a year younger but remains a staple of their Dead Quarterbacks highlight reel.

Seth did grade them out better on the ground but caught their one good performance amongst several bad ones.

Michigan's been better on the ground than in the air. They're still not great, but at least Wisconsin had a run a bunch of uncontested jet sweeps and Isaih Pacheco was shut down (2.9 YPC) last week. Michigan's defensive tackles are looking all right against middling competition, which this appears to be, and the downgrade on the ground from Paye to Kemp is much less severe than the pass rush downgrade.

I'd expect PSU to try to get outside with Washington or Dotson and deliver a heavy dose of zone read in an attempt to put guys in the wrong gaps or exploit un-guarded edges. Michigan showed a little progress on jet sweeps the past couple weeks and reverses are probably up next; the soft coverage M is running now will necessarily lead to some ground game issues.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs SETTING AN EDGE. Handing out free yards left and right, cut that out.

Pass Defense vs Penn State

Clifford has been under seige, but will M have the personnel? [Patrick Barron]

Penn State has had a majority of their issues here. Two weeks ago Sean Clifford started and Will Levis came in; last week that swap was inverted. Turnovers are the primary bugaboo. They've had one intercepted in every game so far and have 8 total; they spent the Maryland and Nebraska games completing under half their passes before bouncing back—sort of—with a 7.4 YPA, 2 TD, 2 INT performance last weekend. One of those interceptions was, uh, this:

Usually not on the QB when a DL picks that off, but I mean it's a DL eurostep touchdown I'm embedding it. Neither QB has been particularly consistent.

One of PSU's issues is they have little in the way of pass-catchers, and even fewer now that Pat Freiermuth is lost for the season. Jahan Dotson is pretty good, but the only other guy to make much impact is freshman Parker Washington, a low-four-star slot guy who's been fairly erratic:

Without Freiermuth You'd think Michigan could stick Hill on Washington, bracket Dotson, and live with the consequences elsewhere. There will probably be some consequences, and of course the opposition will seek to put you in situations where you can't get your favored matchups, but that seems like viable plan as long as Michigan can control the ground game.

Also an issue: pass protection. PSU has given up 20 sacks already. Michigan is either very well suited to exploit this if Kwity Paye is back or not at all suited if he's not. Michigan got very little organic pass rush against Rutgers last week; what did come was largely through Chris Hinton or a blitzing Josh Ross.

KEY MATCHUP: PAYE vs AVAILABILITY. Again Michigan has a big hole they can fill if their star guy gets back in the game.

SPECIAL TEAMS

KO guy Jordan Stout is putting 90% of them in the endzone. They've tried him at kicker, but he's 1/3 on the year. Jake Pinegar is 4/7. This is a #collegekickers situation as the two combined to go 13/15 last year. Stout is also the punter; he's got a 43 yard average but has allowed 51 yards of returns on 16 punts—not a great ratio.

Ford and Washington return kicks. Neither has done anything yet. Dotson returns punts; he's averaging 16 yards a return on four opportunities. Not much other data since KJ Hamler was around last year.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Frames is out-framesing Kinda Frames.
• Michigan's zones are wide open spaces for the freshman slot.
• The ground game returns to its dormant state.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Paye is back.
• Mayfield or Hayes is back.
• PSU's punting from the plus 34.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline: 5; –1 for They Are 0-5, +1 for Are We 0-5, I Can't Remember, –1 for QB Chaos, +1 for Our QB Chaos, –1 for Spiderman Pointing, +1 for Spiderman Pointing, )

Desperate need to win level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for LPONE zone, +1 for Get One Over On Frames, –1 for No Matter What Happens I Will Forget About This Game More Or Less Immediately, +1 for Let's Get Out Of The Relegation Game, –1 for Focus Has Wandered, –1 for Fake Covid Season).

Loss will cause me to… shrug.

Win will cause me to… okay I might mosey on over to one(ONE) Penn State message board.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Much depends on Michigan getting back Paye and/or a tackle. PSU's OL is a pass protection mess but M barely got above 0 against Rutgers last week in Paye's absence. Meanwhile this DL will probably eat Stueber alive in pass pro; Zinter also looks like he'll have troubles. Kicking Stueber inside and pulling Zinter would be a major win.

So it's tough to project anything when there are critical guys on the verge of a return. Without those two guys Michigan's going to have a tough time stringing together drives and will have issues speeding up PSU QBs so that they continue with the turnover fiesta. With them… eh… maybe.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow:

• One tackle back, no Paye.
• Michigan does not intercept PSU.
• Penn State, 29-26