Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs Northern Illinois
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan –27.5
TELEVISION	BTN
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	partly cloudy, mid-70s, ~0% chance of rain, ~5 mph wind

Overview

Historically, NIU has been the kind of feisty mid-level team that can pop up and knock you off if they catch you on the right day. They caught Georgia Tech in their opener, scoring with 38 seconds left on the clock and successfully going for two to win 22-21 over a bonafide (sorta!) ACC team. Then they gave up 50 points to Wyoming and lost. Rather takes the trap game shine off this one.

But you can still be triggered by the presence of Rocky Lombardi, if that's what you're into?

[Hit THE JUMP for yes that guy]

Run Offense vs Northern Illinois

Kylo Ren more dot gif [Barron]

Pair Michigan's outing against Washington with the beatdown Georgia Tech's ground game—51 carries, 271 yards, 5.3 a pop, long of 28 so no distorting 70 yarder—put on the Huskies and this game could look a lot like last weekend. Inexorable Michigan marches down the field may be the order of the day. Alex, observing the GT game:

the NIU DL got ejected from the line of scrimmage more often than not, that their traditional LB's picked the wrong gap or were fooled by play action way too often … DT James Ester … was one of the players who graded out the best (even though he was still more negative than positive), having a few decent interior pass rush events.

Alex even clipped a counter play that looks similar to the blizzard of counter Michigan dropped on Washington, and yeesh:

Nose tackle takes a single block and is kicked across the formation. Standup end runs upfield. Result is less a hole and more a province. That was pretty much the whole game. Further ill omen for this defense: GT's ground output was worse in their 45-17 win over FCS Kennesaw State. (KSU will always be the home of Plank, so they've got that going for them.)

Alex also noted NIU's pillowy soft coverage, which did not change even as GT's QB got off to a very rough start and the Yellow Jackets started grinding down the field. In that game they managed to bend and not break because of a series of inaccurate passes and missed field goals, but when you're trying to die slow and let the other team mess up in 2021  that says a lot about your overall talent level. Here it's minimal.

Meanwhile Michigan just got done grinding a P5 team into a fine powder and will gleefully attempt to replicate that on Saturday. Seth came out with absurd OL grades and continued posting absurd RB grades. Offseason chatter that this team was going to run it down the opposition's throat now sounds more like a promise than a threat. There is no conceivable world in which Jim Friggin' Harbaugh doesn't look at the situation and order up giant flats of Kirkland brand gap-blocked ass-kicking.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN OL vs IDENTIFYING YOUR MAN. Has not been a problem so far, probably will not be a problem against an NIU team that doesn't give you a ton of wild looks. I bring it up because those plays where everyone gets it right except one guy look like about the only way Michigan doesn't continue paving teams.

Pass Offense vs Northern Illinois

??? [Fuller]

N/A, next.

…

Oh, okay, fine: it will be important to see if Michigan's passing game can progress from the state it was in against Washington. On WTKA this week Sam said that he believed Michigan's lack of passing attempts against the Huskies was not merely a commentary on the state of the game but did reflect on an iffy week of practice and some plays on which the coaching staff believed McNamara was hesitant or making the wrong read.

This stuff happens, especially during night games with atmosphere. If it happens again during what projects to be a sleepy noon game against an opponent that veritably invites quarterbacks to get nice and comfy, the JJ McCarthy talk will start in earnest. Michigan dropbacks should be the most interesting part of the game from a projection standpoint.

About that defense, here's Alex again:

Charmin soft coverage against the passing game that gave GT five yard chunks through the air whenever they wanted them. … Despite playing soft coverage that ceded the underneath route, there were guys open down the field plenty, too … though Michigan should win this game on the ground alone, I would like to see them let Cade McNamara try to get into rhythm, because this is a good defense to do it against. … there will be plenty of … easy plays open underneath

NIU's going to keep things in front of them and hope the opposition makes a mistake at an important moment. NIU has been getting to the QB, with five sacks so far and 14 in just 6 games last year, albeit all of those against MAC competition. Alex tracked 4.5 rushers per dropback, which is a fairly high blitz rate.

But this is a bend-but-don't-break defense that is going to cede short stuff and ask Michigan to execute several times to score a touchdown. That's a good base to find out what Michigan thinks about its passing game this week.

KEY MATCHUP: MCNAMARA vs SELF. Seemed to get in his head last week, possibly because everyone was talking about that one McCarthy throw.

Run Defense vs Northern Illinois

Jeter makinga play [Barron]

If at all possible NIU will attempt to survive with the ground game. Alex:

73% of first downs were runs. 83% of second downs were run. Third down, however, was more of an even split. This was a "we will only pass if we have to" kind of team.

Michigan's held up well against their two opponents to date but Harrison Waylee is going to be the best back they've faced this year. Waylee has long speed and sees the field well; he's not super jittery like Corum but he's a fast little guy who will punish mistakes. Alex:

Waylee was a menace in the game I watched and he passed my preliminary test of how I assess RB's: by comparing him to the other RB's. Waylee was significantly better than the second string guy Clint Ratkovich against Georgia Tech. Ratkovich is a generic MAC back. Waylee is a cut above it, especially with his speed.

He's a north-south kind of back who's a little reminiscent of Karan Higdon. Waylee put up 5.3 YPC against GT and 6.9—thanks in part to a 75-yard touchdown—against Wyoming. Once you drop out some extracurriculars (sacks, a –10 yard run from a WR, a couple team runs) NIU pretty much paved GT; this is likely to be Michigan's stiffest test of the year on the ground.

Michigan got a star outing from Aidan Hutchinson in the last game but maybe more important was a diverse set of Michigan DTs turning in solid games against (probably) reasonable competition. Both starting DTs came in for double-digit positives; Mike Morris and Jordan Whittley(!) also contributed. I'll take any version of that for a position group that projected to be the weakest on the team preseason. Obviously any continuation of that would bode well for Big Ten opponents.

KEY MATCHUP: WAYLEE vs MICHIGAN SAFETIES LIKE TWO OR THREE TIMES? Waylee has the jets to make Michigan pay if there's slipup; the assumption here is that isn't going to happen very much but there will be a couple of danger moments.

Pass Defense vs Northern Illinois

he did what to what now [Fuller]

One major advantage of going to the game this week is that you will be spared the inevitable highlight package of Rocky Lombardi throwing for 10 yards an attempt (and picking up a zillion justified PI flags) in last year's Michigan State debacle. That performance is going to stand out as one of the biggest "you let WHO do WHAT to you" performances in recent Michigan history—Gary Nova going for 400 yards against Brady Hoke is probably the only competitor—and will give anyone without the privilege of goldfish memory tremors whenever Lombardi drops back to pass in the first quarter.

Try to look at it rationally: after Lombardi's hot start against Rutgers and Michigan he threw three picks against Iowa and got benched after completing less than half his passes; he was miserably bad whenever MSU was forced to turn back to him the rest of the year and transferred to a MAC school because it was made clear to him that he wouldn't be in the running for the job this year. Is any of this taking? No?  You're still thinking about that one receiver who even MSU fans don't remember because he got ~3 targets the rest of the year? Well, I suppose that's understandable.

For what it's worth, NIU tried to avoid using Lombardi too much in the GT game. He had just 17 attempts, and armed with the element of surprise he hit 11 of those for 136 yards. A decent outing. When NIU got down big against Wyoming and had to get back into it they relied more heavily on him, and the results were the same as they were against pulse-bearing opponents last year: 19/36, 6.5 YPA, 1 TD, 3 INTs. (To be fair, two of those were deflections; the third was Lombardi throwing a hitch and getting picked off by a LB at the LOS.) Lombardi will alternate zippy throws in a bucket well downfield with Tacopants throws; he remains a guy who explodes in all directions. NIU's last gasp ended on fourth and ten when Lombardi winged it too high at an open guy.

This is who he's been over the course of his career and, barring spooky curse juju against Michigan, is likely to be on Saturday. Yes, I know you are banking on the curse. 

NIU's kept Lombardi relatively clean, allowing just two sacks through the first two games. They have not seen an Aidan Hutchinson yet, and will hope to never see him again after Saturday. NIU's WRs are mostly just guys but Tyrice Richie averaged almost 10 receptions a game last year and has to be accounted for, particularly in the screen game.

For its part, Michigan got a dominant performance out of Hutchinson and got flashes from Ojabo and the DTs against Washington; the new coverage scheme on defense has given opposing quarterbacks pause as they try to figure out what Michigan's actually in. Pleasantly, for the most part they seem to be in the things they're supposed to be. Putting up a performance like they did against Washington probably won't actually be a step forward, but given all that above it would feel like one.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN DEFENSIVE BACKS vs OPPORTUNITIES. Lombardi is likely to throw a number of interceptable balls, and it would be good to intercept them.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Punter Matt Ference is okay, averaging 43 yards a punt last year and helping hold down opponent returns with hang time. Only 9 of 31 had any return yardage come back in 2020. Kicker John Richardson is 22/30 in his career but doesn't have a big leg. Relatively few of his kickoffs are touchbacks. Corum should have a couple cracks at a return.

Trayvon Rudolph returned kicks last year and is back; his 24 yard average is very boring. NIU hasn't had a punt return this season and only had three last year, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Michigan's subplot in this game is whether Caden Kolesar will continue returning punts or if someone more meep meep like AJ Henning can work his way in.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING WELL

INTANGIBLES

huskies all the way down

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Rocky Lombardi is Daniel Jones and we're WFT.
• Michigan's clearly missing Ronnie Bell.
• It still seems like the coaches don't trust the passing game.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Hassan Haskins gains five yards on Michigan's first play from scrimmage.
• JJ McCarthy uncorks another lol what throw.
• That one WR guy didn't transfer to NIU as well.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 2 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Arrgh MSU Flashbacks, +1 for Aaargh Same DBs, –1 for Could Probably Tell Them The Run Play And Still Convert, –1 for Rocky Lombardi In All Other Games, –1 for Y'all Gave Up 50 To Wyoming, –1 for Mmmm Four Touchdown Spread, –1 for Corum Gonna Eat.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Not Again, +1 for Not Again But In A Lombardi Way, +1 for MAC Losses Just Feel Bad Man, +1 for Could Have Pretty Good Season Given Disaster That Is Big Ten, +1 for Just Ugh Man)

Loss will cause me to… move, because Rocky Lombardi will then own all my worldly possessions and possibly my soul

Win will cause me to… mentally replace last year's MSU game with this one

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

MAC defense that looks like it has no ability to resist getting paved, and then an offense that might hit some big plays if Waylee gets loose or Lombardi has a Dr. Jekyll play but doesn't look like it has much ability to string together drives. The scores of the previous two games have obscured some pretty large yardage deficits, and GT is a bottom-of-the-barrel ACC program right now. It doesn't look like Michigan is as iffy as feared preseason. I wouldn't expect a whole lot that surprises from NIU.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• McNamara is improved but an extended backup appearance from JJ McCarthy leads to a week of largely invented QB controversy.
• Rocky Lombardi does not throw for ten yards an attempt.
• Michigan, 43-15