Preview: Minnesota
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
Michigan (17-7, 7-4 B1G) at Minnesota (6-17, 0-11) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Williams Arena Minneapolis, Minnesota |
WHEN | 9 pm ET, Wednesday |
LINE | Michigan -7 (KenPom) |
TV |
BTN PBP: Cory Provus Analyst: Shon Morris |
Right: Not even a poor shooting night could prevent Michigan from winning the first matchup. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
THE US
Caris LeVert is pain-free, practicing, and officially in control of his return to the court:
According to Michigan coach John Beilein, LeVert has been cleared to play and is the sole decider in when or if he will return to the floor for the Wolverines.
The senior star, an All-American candidate prior to injury his lower left leg in late December, is pain-free and still gradually returning to form.
"This is his call," Beilein said Tuesday. "This isn't my call. We'll see what he feels like after today's practice — how much he can go."
While LeVert could potentially return tonight, there's reason to believe he should wait a little longer; Beilein said LeVert has just worked his way up to an hour of practicing and he's yet to go 100% in a full-court setting. If he plays, it'll be in a limited role as he works his way back into game shape.
THE LAST TIME
Michigan beat Minnesota 74-69 a few weeks ago in Crisler in a strange and uninspiring performance. The Wolverines jumped out to a big first-half lead, then went ice-cold from the field and allowed the Gophers to cut the deficit to as little as three points in the second half; despite this, Michigan's win probability on KenPom never dropped below 90%—in large part because Minnesota is bad, but the Wolverines controlled the game and simply couldn't knock down open looks. They won anyway. Minnesota is bad.
THE STAKES
Have I mentioned Minnesota is bad? They are bad. As such, this is a must-win game for a Michigan squad that needs to win at least three of their last seven regular-season games to feel half-decent about their NCAA Tournament chances—and four if they don't want to be under serious pressure in the Big Ten Tournament. Tonight's game is one of only two in which Michigan is outright favored; the other is February 24th against Northwestern. Those two are must-haves, and then the Wolverines have to defend home court against Purdue on Saturday or put themselves in the position of needing a tough road win or an upset in the finale against Iowa.
This game also has stakes beyond Michigan's postseason outlook. This is for history.
Real possibility there's an upcoming game between teams that are a combined 0-28 in league play. Can't be much precedent for that.
— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) February 9, 2016
Please don't screw this up. Yes, Minnesota-Rutgers could be a special kind of historic.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 2 | Nate Mason | So. | 6'2, 185 | 80 | 25 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
Good assist:turnover, 79% FT shooter, inefficient from the field. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | Dupree McBrayer | Fr. | 6'4, 195 | 53 | 19 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Role increasing, but shooting 35% on twos and 16% on threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 23 | Charles Buggs | Jr. | 6'9, 230 | 51 | 13 | No | ||||||||||||
Stretch four type who can shoot, but doesn't have much impact otherwise. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 3 | Jordan Murphy | Fr. | 6'6, 230 | 60 | 24 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
Top-15 rebounder on both ends in B1G, decent shot-blocker, 57% on twos. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 21 | Bakary Konate | So. | 6'11, 235 | 51 | 14 | Very | ||||||||||||
Good finisher/rebounder/shot-blocker, somewhat foul- and TO-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 24 | Joey King | Sr. | 6'9, 240 | 77 | 16 | No | ||||||||||||
Deadeye outside shooter also getting to the line. Not great inside arc. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 11 | Carlos Morris | Sr. | 6'5, 185 | 62 | 24 | No | ||||||||||||
PT decreasing as he's been mired in a shooting slump. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 4 | Kevin Dorsey | Fr. | 6'0, 185 | 42 | 26 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Draws a lot of fouls and hits FTs. Mediocre finisher and terrible 3P shooter. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
While the Gophers have had a few competitive games since they came to Crisler, including an overtime loss to Illinois and tighter-than-expected contests with Purdue and Indiana, they're still winless in the conference and more than capable of looking awful—they lost by 24 at Northwestern in their most recent game.
Not a whole lot has chanced since the first matchup, so you can find more detail in that game preview.
The Gophers continue to bring their best offensive player, stretch four Joey King, off the bench, and while he's playing close to starter-level minutes he's been held to five points or fewer in four of the last five games—that includes a three-point, four-foul output against Michigan. Freshman Ahmad Gilbert, who originally supplanted King in the starting five before suffering a dislocated finger, is expected back after missing the first game between these two teams. He's a Just A Shooter™ type making only 24% of his three-pointers.
Point guard Nate Mason will be the focus of Michigan's defensive efforts after he slashed his way inside time and again on his way to 24 points (8/12 2P, 1/4 3P, 6/6 FT) in the first matchup. If Derrick Walton struggles to stay in front of him again, Michigan may be better off defending him with Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and sticking Walton on one of Minnesota's underwhelming two-guards.
The Gophers have struggled to find a reliable threat to join Mason in the backcourt. Current starter Dupree McBrayer is 6/38 from downtown this season and not faring much better inside the arc (35%), though he does get to the line at a high rate. Senior Carlos Morris is posting 42/31/69 shooting splits in Big Ten games with an elevated turnover rate and has seen his playing time decrease as a result. Freshman Kevin Dorsey, like McBrayer, is 6/38 on three-pointers this year with a high free-throw rate. All three have O-Ratings languishing in the 80s, which is bad; Michigan doesn't have a single player below 100.
Forward Jordan Murphy was productive in the first game, scoring 13 (5/9 2P, 1/2 3P), pulling in eight boards (two offensive), and recording three blocks, but he also got hit with four fouls. He can be a handful down low; he'll also have his hands full on the other end—when Bakary Konate is on the floor, he'll have to stay in front of Zak Irvin, and when he slides over to center he's at a distinct size disadvantage at 6'6", 230.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
The Gophers are in front of only Rutgers in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the Big Ten. They're being outscored by 0.18 points per possession in conference play, which over the course of their average 67-possession game puts them easily into a double-digit hole.
The Minnesota offense is almost entirely reliant on getting to the line; foul avoidance is something Michigan does quite well. The defense has been horrendous, allowing B1G opponents to make 55% of their twos. If they don't force turnovers they're in deep trouble; they're only mediocre at generating those and Michigan is excellent at avoiding them.
THE KEYS
Attack the basket. Michigan won the first game because they overcame a bad shooting night both inside and outside the arc by getting to the line, where they went 19/23 (11/12 by Derrick Walton alone). Minnesota has a terrible two-point defense; Michigan should be able to both produce easy points and open up the perimeter by working the high screen and attacking off the dribble.
Stay in front of Mason. Mason almost single-handedly kept Minnesota within striking distance the first time around; Walton couldn't cut off his drives and the help usually arrived late. If Walton has a similar performance—and who knows if he will given the up-and-down nature of his on-ball defense this season—then I'd like to see Rahk get a chance at defending Mason; it shouldn't be hard for Michigan to hide a defender on whomever is playing the two.
Make open threes, please. This is mostly for my own peace of mind, as Michigan showed they can beat Minnesota even when clanking a bunch of open perimeter looks off the rim. That wasn't very fun, however, and it made for a closer game than it should've been. The Wolverines have a great chance to get back on track from beyond the arc in this game—while Minnesota has a statistically solid perimeter defense, it doesn't pass the eye test—and it'd be great if they did so before hitting a tough and crucial final stretch.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 7.
Losing this would be close to a death knell for Michigan's tournament chances. The good news is that's because Minnesota is so bad that even a slumping Michigan squad is fully expected to handle this one. Whether or not LeVert returns, this is a great opportunity for the Wolverines to get it going again, and I expect them to take out last week's frustrations on the Gophers.
ELSEWHERE
February 10th, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^
As much as I love Robinson, if he can't start driving to the hoop Dawkins needs to get more minutes. This team as we all know live and die with the three, but penetration by Irvin, Dawkins, Walton and MAAR will help. Not to mention, Dawkins has the ability to get an alley oop behind teams that are extending to gaurd the three.
February 10th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^
was this incident of Dawkins driving you speak of?
February 10th, 2016 at 2:36 PM ^
100% agree. Dawkins is currently not an effective driver and finisher - or driver and distributor. He's athletic enough to do so, but that aspect of his game is far from polished.
February 10th, 2016 at 2:44 PM ^
No. However, the comparison was between Robinson and Dawkins. Of the two, he is much more athletic and might not be shut down by a player 2 feet shorter than him. Robinson has been a mirror image of Stauskas' freshman B1G season. He is standing around way too much. Hopefully, he has the same leap over the summer.
February 10th, 2016 at 5:58 PM ^
What are you talking about? Of the two I've only seen Robinson drive and finish at the rim. Dawkins doesn't have that in his game yet and certainly hasn't shown it, even if he is more atheletic.
February 10th, 2016 at 6:13 PM ^
I think both are great shooters who have improved near the basket since Levert has been out. However I do agree they are not good distributors or defensive players.
February 10th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^
...confuses me a bit, too. Robinson is more inclined to take someone off the dribble, especially in recent games. Dawkins finishes at a higher percentage but that's in large part because his two-point opportunities are usually created by someone else. According to hoop-math, 83% of Dawkins' makes at the rim are assisted. For Robinson, that figure is only 57%.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:24 PM ^
I would like to see Aubrey starting. Maybe Duncan playing against the second fiddles might loosen him up. It's worth a try.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^
Dawkins needs to get more minutes just becaue Robinson doesn't have the legs right now. Robinson isn't getting open consistently and isn't making open threes when he does. He needs more rest so he can run off screens relentlessly when in.
February 10th, 2016 at 4:15 PM ^
I think it's more the diffrence between being a 4th option (1.Levert 2.Irvin 3.Walton 4.Robinion) to being something like 2a or 2b AND teams knowing your entire game. He (and the offense in general) has to start looking for the drive more, if just to open thngs up.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:35 PM ^
I feel like Dawkins consistently looks lost on defense. Robinson isn't always quick enough to keep up with his man, but I think he's come futher defensively than Dawkins, which is why I believe he gets more minutes.
February 10th, 2016 at 2:39 PM ^
February 10th, 2016 at 2:58 PM ^
BUT this has catastrophe written ALL OVER IT...slumping team that really looks bad against a hungry winless but competitive team on the road in a place Michigan RARELY wins...I expect a loss tonight to end our torunament chances for the year...not being negative just realisitc..I hope to hell Im wrong ...
February 10th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^
a place Michigan rarely wins? We have won our last 5 games at the barn, and haven't lost there since 2008, currently our longest road winning streat against one team.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^
throughout the last 5 decades without looking it up Id wager behind Indiana and Purdue Minnesota is 3rd as the leat amount of wins
February 10th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^
I'd rather choose to look at the last decade which suggests Michigan will win.
February 10th, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^
You would probably lose that bet. Michigan is 90-65 all time against Minnesota. I don't have the home and away record, but considering Michigan has a commanding lead in this series, chances are Michigan has a decent enough record in Minneapolis. On the other hand, Michigan has losing records against Purdue (67-85), Ohio State (77-99), Indiana (57-106) and Illinois (81-86). I'm guess that MIchigan's road record against each of the four is worse that its road record against Minnesota. Michigan also has a 97-80 record against Michigan State. Since MSU has more or less dominated the series the past 20 years, I'm guess Michigan's road record against MSU is also worse than the road record against Minnesota.
February 10th, 2016 at 5:28 PM ^
Historically, John Beilein has dominated Minnesota. I'm not sure why you think the records of guys who aren't currently our coach (Fisher, Ellerbe et al.) are somehow more relevant than the guy who is.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:07 PM ^
Unfortunately, I agree. I have this nagging feeling that Minnesota finally gets over the hump tonight. I hope I'm wrong.
February 10th, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^
Beilein is something like 13-1 against Minnesota since his second season, and the one loss was at Crisler.
February 10th, 2016 at 6:45 PM ^
we should win comfortably. If we stink up the joint like we did against IU and MSU, any kind of clusterfuck is possible.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:13 PM ^
February 10th, 2016 at 3:30 PM ^
...it's the same for me. My ability to endure basketball anguish is used up right now.
February 10th, 2016 at 6:26 PM ^
Ashamed to say that I cannot watch this game - too nervous to watch if the whole season goes down the tubes. Hoping the boys can turn it arount tonight.
Go Blue!
February 10th, 2016 at 3:15 PM ^
Why play this game at 9PM? Remember what Stankey said - let's think about the students! B1G get your crap together.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:37 PM ^
It will only be 8pm in Minneapolis when the game starts.
February 10th, 2016 at 4:24 PM ^
When the players fly back, they are flying back to the eastern time zone. College games should be no later than 7:30.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^
I hate this kind of game: on the road after two straight demoralizing home losses, playing a bad but improving opponent where a win means nothing and a loss effectively ends the season.
February 10th, 2016 at 3:35 PM ^
so for them it's played at 8PM
February 10th, 2016 at 4:41 PM ^
Anybody else worried about this game?
Yes? No? Just me? Ok. Nevermind.
February 10th, 2016 at 4:54 PM ^
Minnesota has played most teams really close at home. We seem to be in a funk of late. Feels like a game we could easily lose. Sure hope not. This game is our season right now.
February 10th, 2016 at 5:15 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
February 10th, 2016 at 5:02 PM ^
yes even to a Minnesota team who hasn't won in the conference yet. They may not know how to play basketball but they know how to hustle and that could be all the difference. I think Donnal has a nice night and some random other person, like Dawkins or RAHK, but everyone else is more of the same, inconsistentcy but still manage to pack the stat sheet in awkward ways...Walton will probably have 6pts to go along with 28 rebounds and three assists. Zak most likely 11pts, 4 rebounds, 10 assists...something like that...but seriously. Prove me wrong boys. This game shouldn't be a problem but will no doubt be close. Minnesota is just so bad, 78-71. Go Blue.
February 10th, 2016 at 5:04 PM ^
Why did Minny fire Tubby Smith for a non-talented Pitino again?
February 10th, 2016 at 5:17 PM ^
I never could figure if he was a good coach, maybe a good coach but not a great coach? He had that Championship at UK but then nothing too astonishing except those few elite eights. A .600 record at Minny. Regardless, he is probably better than Pitino. I don't understand why Pitino doesn't coach longer under his dad as an assistant.
February 10th, 2016 at 5:19 PM ^
...just like when they fired Glen Mason. Tubby Smith is a pretty damn good coach to have if you're the Gophers.
February 10th, 2016 at 5:23 PM ^
February 10th, 2016 at 5:59 PM ^
Their AD formerly worked at VCU and had hired Shaka Smart. He thought he could bring Smart to Minneapolis, but swung and missed and Little Ricky was the best he could do.
February 10th, 2016 at 6:21 PM ^
I'd like to see Caris play a couple of short stints tonight. Don't overextend him, just get him out there for a 3 minute stint in each half maybe to let him get a little full-speed action, and give someone a short rest. Don't want to overextend him obviously, but a small amount tonight, and then a more substantial bench role in the next game or two building up his minutes seems like a good way to go about it.
I mean, even that little bit of relief would probably be helpful to the team right now.
February 10th, 2016 at 7:48 PM ^
I predict that M will blow the Gophs out and it will be fun to watch.
February 10th, 2016 at 7:56 PM ^
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