After a few weeks off, we're back with the most pivotal FFFF of the season: the Orange Bowl, everybody! Michigan and Georgia square off in just a few short days for a clash between #2 and #3 in the College Football Playoff semifinals. We kick it off by looking at Georgia's offense, which has gotten much less coverage than its legendary defense, but this phase of the game could be as important as the other dimension. Keeping UGA's offense in the yard is hugely important for Michigan on New Year's Eve, so today we're going to look over the Georgia defense and analyze how it is one could slow down this unit. 

 

The Film: Just like the preceding two editions of this column, I decided to use two games to get a feel for Georgia because there are two distinct kinds of Georgia games this season. The first kind saw the Dawgs pound the living daylights out of the first 12 teams they played. The second kind was them getting torched by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Naturally I had to watch the Alabama game, but also wanted to include one of UGA's dominant efforts against a respectable regular season opponent to showcase why the Bulldogs got to the CFP in the first place.

Georgia's schedule until facing Alabama was lacking in higher end competition, and arguably the best non-Bama team they played was Clemson early in the season. That game saw JT Daniels start at QB, though, making it unusable. Beyond that, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, and Auburn were on the list, and I tabbed Auburn because they grade out rather favorably in the advanced metrics and we have a B1G measuring stick on them, roughly comparable to Penn State (they lost to the Nittany Lions in State College in September by eight). The Tigers aren't a great opponent, but I think they are the best option out of rather slim pickings here. 

Personnel: Seth's chart.

Georgia entered the season with two options at QB, Stetson Bennett IV and JT Daniels. Daniels is a former 5* transfer from USC, while Bennett is the antithesis of that: an in-stater and former walk-on who played JuCo before returning to Georgia in 2019. Both got some run last season, but it was Daniels who finished the season strong and won Georgia the Peach Bowl. He entered the season as the starter but after a couple of games, ran into a series of injuries, first the oblique and then his lats. That forced him to miss several weeks stretching into late October, during which Bennett Wally Pipp'd him. When Daniels was finally healthy to return, Kirby Smart stuck with Bennett, getting Daniels looks only in garbage time situations. Bennett rolls into the Orange Bowl as the starter, but after a team-wide humiliating effort against Alabama, the QB controversy rumors haven't quite died out yet (UPDATE: Daniels entered COVID protocol on Dec. 21). 

Georgia's got a monstrous RB rotation, with several highly effective backs. The nominal starter is James Cook, brother of Dalvin and a former top 50 recruit, who has carried the ball 101 times for over 6.0 YPC with 7 TDs. He shares the backfield with Zamir White, a former 5* who has rushed 135 times for over 5.0 YPC and 10 TDs. White is the bigger back, used more in short-yardage situations, while Cook is used more as a receiving threat (21 catches for 157 yards and three TDs). Beyond those two, Kendall Milton was getting 8-10 carries a game at 5.0 YPC before an injury suffered against Kentucky wiped out the rest of his regular season. Reports are that he is healed for the Orange Bowl. With Milton out, the third back had become Kenny McIntosh, who has carried it 54 times on the year for nearly 6 YPC and 3 TDs himself. Georgia loves to run the football and they're effective at it in part because they have a rotating cast of options, all of whom are ex-top 200 recruits, that split the load so no one gets too tired and ensures there are always fresh legs on the field. 

Though Georgia's roster is lined with talent that only Alabama and Ohio State can rival, they are a far cry from the Buckeyes at WR, running out two of three starters who were not even in the top 300, and none of them are exactly Olave/Wilson/JSN caliber. I do like the spectacularly named Ladd McConkey, son of Phil McConkey, who some may remember for a brief but moderately memorable NFL career that included several key plays in Super Bowl XXI (and also later had a brief political career). Ladd was outside the composite's top 1000 but has become his team's starting slot receiver at 6'0/185 and the leading WR on the team by receiving yards. 

The other starting wide receivers from the regular season are outside guys Jermaine Burton and Adonai Mitchell. Burton is the lone blue chip WR prospect in a starting role, while Mitchell offers the height at a lanky 6'4/190. Drilling deeper you find guys like Kearis Jackson, Jackson Meeks, Jaylen Johnson and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, but their snaps and catches on the season are limited. The one wildcard here is George Pickens, a former 5* recruit who was a dangerous weapon in both 2019 and 2020 as UGA's WR1 and was a projected pre-season All-American before his season was thrown off track due to an ACL injury in March. He's somehow worked his way back, playing a bit in the last couple weeks of the season, but after another month of healing, he has the potential to be a major weapon. A 100% healthy Pickens would be the best WR on Georgia by a country mile. (UPDATE: Pickens entered COVID protocol on Dec. 22) 

The review of those WR options doesn't sound the most enthusiastic and that's because all of the receiving focus should be trained on the TE spot and one Brock Bowers. Listed just outside the composite's top 100 in this most recent recruiting class, Bowers has become an excellent player at a pace more rapid than anyone could imagine. He leads the Bulldogs with 791 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns as a true freshman (!!!!). At 6'4, 230 lbs., he's a tank who can block and catch, hauling in 19 more receptions than any other player on the team (and 361 more receiving yards), quickly emerging as Bennett's favorite target. 

The other TEs are notable more for blocking than receiving, but they have a role in the offense. John FitzPatrick has only caught six balls on the season but has played over 400 snaps (30+ a game), largely as a blocking TE because Georgia features many two and three TE sets. Darnell Washington only has nine catches on the season (also more of a blocking TE), but he's a more interesting piece to note because of his 6'7/265 size, which can make him a jump ball target. 

Georgia's OL is littered with blue chip prospects, starting with 5* LT Jamaree Salyer, who protects Bennett's blindside. Opposite him at RT is Warren McClendon, who is, along with C Sedrick Van Pran, the baby of the line. The guards tout more experience, Justin Shaffer at LG and Warren Ericson at RG. All five guys were top 300 composite recruits, and all five guys are listed at 6'4". The sixth piece on the line, who rotates in, is 5* OT Broderick Jones. This OL is one of the best in the country on paper, having allowed only 11 sacks, just one more than Michigan in the same number of games. That mark is fifth best in the country. They open holes for the RBs and keep Bennett clean... most all of the time. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: I hope you like clips!]

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Georgia runs what is best described as a modern NFL offense, a passing spread with a pinch of QB running thrown in. They line up with three and four wide on many plays, but also run out with 2 TEs tight to the formation. There isn't really one formation that I would describe as their base set, but it's probably one of the following three images. The three wide + a TE and a RB is pretty common: 

As is the two TEs in with the formation + two receivers out wide + a RB, especially in obvious rushing situations: 

And four wide has a role too: 

The reason I've been saying "wide" though is because those out wide are not necessarily wide receivers. Georgia plays with at least two TEs on nearly half of their snaps (Gary Danielson quoted the number as being 48% entering the SEC Championship Game and thus why we have two depicted on the diagram), and since Brock Bowers is such a deadly receiver, he lines up in the slot as a receiver often, rather than being in tight to the formation. 

Georgia plays out of the shotgun on the vast majority of plays I tracked (against Auburn): 

	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Gun	42	7	13	90%
Under Center	4	2	1	10%

They go under center every so often, but it's on the backburner. The other takeaway from this chart should be that Georgia uses play-action in this offense a decent bit, on about 13% of their total plays in this game. But considering the baseline run vs. pass distribution, play-action constituted nearly 40% of passing plays called by Todd Monken. That's a lot. 

As for play distribution by down, you can tell what Georgia wants to do: 

	Run	Pass
1st	22	9
2nd	18	6
3rd	6	7
4th	-	1

Remember that the Auburn game is a game that Georgia won decisively, so this table illustrates what the Bulldogs would like to do in an ideal world: get a lead, let the defense do the work, and grind their opponent down to dust through the rushing game. And through that, build the passing game via play-action out of a modern NFL spread that is heavy on tight ends due to their personnel. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: UGA is an interesting team to consider for this part of the column, because they play with multiple TEs often and they want to run the football, yet I don't really consider them a Manball team. They play in space quite a bit, spreading the receivers, tight ends, and running backs out and hurting you because they can win the battle at the line of scrimmage with their OL. After which, their backs can hit the hole in a hurry and pick up chunks after your LBs/DBs have been spread out of the box. Given the role that the RBs play in the receiving game, they fit more in the Basketball on Grass territory, despite the general orientation to how they want to play the game. 

Hurry it up, or Grind it out: Georgia is a team that will throw in tempo from time to time. On the whole, they move at a rather standard pace, but I did note instances in both games I watched where they picked up the pace. That tended to be after getting first downs as a way to catch the opponent off guard. I didn't find it so out of the ordinary that it was worth clipping, but occasional tempo is something that I presume that Georgia will use in the Orange Bowl and an element Michigan should be ready for. 

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Stetson Bennett's most notable attribute relative to JT Daniels is his running ability. While Daniels gave UGA very little on the ground, Bennett adds a wrinkle to the offense in his ability to run zone reads, be effective in design QB runs, and pick up extra yards scrambling. All three of these components were on display in the two games I watched. Georgia has dangerous RBs and want to hammer you on the ground, which is why it's extremely deceptive— and effective— when they throw a QB read in there: 

Bennett seemed rather adept at making those reads. They're not a feature part of the offense like a Nebraska or even Rutgers, but Georgia tosses a few in each game because they can produce chunk gains after you've been smacking an opponent in the teeth with Zamir White and James Cook. 

Georgia's willingness to line up with four wide and use the RB as a receiving option allows them to empty the backfield, spread the defense out, and then let Bennett hit the defense with his legs in designed QB keepers: 

Bennett is brutally targeted there at the end of the play by Auburn S (and great name) Smoke Monday, but before his noggin is thwacked, you see why Georgia is comfortable using Bennett's legs. He's more agile than most QBs who don't possess Denard speed, and can weave his way around defenders to gain extra yardage. That remains true when Bennett has to scramble, which he did a little bit in both games I saw: 

Bennett's legs also make him comfortable rolling out of the pocket. As we noted, Georgia loves play action and they run a lot of PA bootlegs/waggles, rolling Bennett out and giving him an underneath option to hit. In fact, it might remind you a bit of Iowa.... 

This is a piece of the offense that is utilized even more than the scrambles/design runs/reads. In totality, Bennett is not a burner and he's not really even a *running QB*, but he's kind of like 2018 Shea Patterson (before he forgot how to keep it on a read). You don't go into the Orange Bowl with "Stetson Bennett's legs!!!" on the top of the scouting report, but it is on the report in a way it wasn't for CJ Stroud or Spencer Petras. And if you don't pay attention, it will hurt you from time to time, be it from improvisation or design. So, we'll give Bennett a 6. 

Dangerman: As much as I like the Georgia running backs, the only answer here is TE Brock Bowers. If there was ever a player who seems like a 100% lock to win a Mackey Award in the next two years, it'd probably be Bowers. Reiterating his stats, he racked up 791 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns as a true freshman. For those curious, TJ Hockenson didn't play as a true frosh and then put up 320 yards in his first season of play. Mark Andrews also redshirted and put up 318 yards in his first season of play. Jake Butt played as a true freshman but put up just 235 yards. All three of those players I just named won the  Mackey Award later in their career. You could make the case Bowers was Mackey-worthy this season. He's really freaking good. 

Perhaps the best illustration of the role that Bowers has in this offense comes from the late stages of the Alabama game. Down multiple scores in the second half, Bennett needed to map a plan for a comeback. That plan seemed to be "just throw it to Brock Bowers over and over again". On a TD drive in the early fourth quarter, Bennett threw it to Bowers on three out of of four plays, which went for 52 combined yards and a score. The first catch he made was just a "welp" play, the best catch I saw him make (also maybe the best throw Bennett made in the two games I saw): 

Just nothing a defender can do there, because Bowers is 6'4" and long. When Bennett high points the ball and Bowers skies up for it, no defense in college football has a defender who can stop that (Bama tried with three defenders and couldn't). You just have to shrug and tip your cap when he does something like that. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. If you think Bowers is just tall and jumpy, you would be mistaken. He's also strong as a bull. This is just a couple plays later: 

Quick note: look at how interesting that screen is. It's a TE screen and the two blockers (#0 and #86) are also TEs! Can't recall a lot of teams I've seen this season who have the personnel that can run that sort of play. 

Bowers also showed the ability to make tricky catches off marginal balls from Bennett (which are an issue, more on that soon): 

His hands are good. He's big, he's tall, he's strong. I don't think Bowers is quite as good of a blocker as a receiver, but I didn't think he was a liability there, and when you combine it with the receiving capabilities, you see why he received a shield on our diagram. A crazy good tight end and this week's dangerman.  

HenneChart: I fully charted Bennett for two games and let's take a gander: 

Stetson Bennett IV	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Game	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	PFF
Auburn	2	8 (+4 screens)	1		-	2		-	1	4	-		69%	-
Alabama	2	22 (+6 screens)	2		4	7		1	1	4	5		70%

A few things jump out at ya just looking at the chart at face value. The first is about how much more there was to chart from Bennett in the Alabama game. Against Auburn, Georgia was able to get a lead and then let their defense and running game grind it out. Against Alabama, Georgia was playing catch-up in the second half and leaned on Benentt heavily. Surprisingly, his DSR is actually higher in the Alabama game, which is another thing that jumped out. But that's simply because the DSR is not weighted by category- Bennett made a lot of fine throws against Alabama, but several hugely consequential, back breaking mistakes. That's not reflected in a metric that weights a 6-yard slant and a pick six equally. 

Bennett is described as a game manager like Cade McNamara, and I think that's decently fair in some aspects. Most of the throws he makes are solid and unremarkable, but he does throw out some occasional dimes. That throw to Bowers is one, as is this bomb to McConkey: 

Like I said previously, a lot of Bennett's throws are pretty pedestrian and throwing to generally open guys: 

To some extent, Bennett's season is similar to that of CJ Stroud's. He's been very well protected, and though he doesn't have quite the same level of weapons, the offense is well designed which means there is typically an open option on most plays. It's when Alabama started throwing out coverages that prevented open guys, or finally got pressure on Bennett, that things went awry. There were some signs that Bennett might be vulnerable to mistakes, because he's not always a pinpoint accurate QB when he has time. You saw a very marginal throw to Bowers earlier, and here's one that's severely underthrown: 

Still caught, but that's an easy TD if it's on the nose. When pressure did start to come against Alabama, the results were ugly. On the first drive of the game, Alabama sent a delayed blitz that coaxed Bennett into a terrible decision that he was lucky to get away with: 

Here's a play where you can tell that Bennett is used to having more time than he does: 

At the start of the play he's got Cook (#4) open in the flat to the right and Burton (#7) open on a crossing route right at the sticks and instead he seems to be looking into the end zone. But then all of the sudden there's a rusher in front of him for the sack. That cost Georgia four points. 

In this next clip, Bennett is not expecting Alabama to have sniffed out Georgia's patented PA rollout, and forces himself to make a massive, game-altering mistake: 

And then this one wasn't even about pressure, it's just a horrendous read: 

Thrown right into double coverage that the DB saw telegraphed, Jay Cutler style. 

In summation, if Georgia is pound and ground in the rushing game, Bennett will be fine. He'll make the right throws to mostly open receivers, including a few great throws. But if Bennett's playing catch-up (something Georgia never had to do before Alabama) and is having to take more risks, there could be trouble, because his reads of the defense aren't yet flawless and his arm isn't always pinpoint. Similarly, if you can get to him and rush his decision-making process, then that's also a recipe for trouble for Bennett. 

 

Overview 

Georgia's team is built around its ability to knock you around on the ground, doing it over and over again to then open up big plays in the passing game. That's a long way of saying that there's a not-insignificant amount of Harbaugh in this offense. Take UGA's game against Arkansas back in early October: Georgia rushed it 57 times for 273 yards and attempted just 11 passes (over 10 yards per completion though!). If they can pave you on the ground and then win a game comfortably with their defense (they shut the Hogs out), then Georgia doesn't feel like they need to pass (that might ring a bell if you watched Michigan's game against Washington). 

The game I watched against Auburn is a pretty good encapsulation of this philosophy that Georgia has towards the offensive phase of the game. They rushed 49 times for 201 yards (4.1 YPC) and only attempted 21 passes. But those 21 passes went for 231 yards (11 yards per completion!) and two touchdowns. They don't want to throw it much (partially related to Bennett), but because of the way they orient their approach to the game, when they do throw, it often goes for huge gains, especially off play-action. Here's that beautiful ball from Bennett to McConkey again: 

The play-action there only works because Georgia was running so consistently that Auburn decided to key in on the running game, leaving them exposed deep (no safety help when the CB bites on PA). Once Georgia gets a lead because of those big plays in the passing game, they try and sit on you with their defense and rushing game. Auburn had done a good job containing Georgia's running game in the first half (because they were keying in, leading to that TD) but after Georgia went up three touchdowns and their defense seemed impenetrable, the Dawgs went to the running game exclusively and more or less broke Auburn's will. A drive in the early fourth quarter went 64 yards in 10 plays and ended in a TD. Every single play of that drive was a rushing play by a RB. Harbaugh! 

They can run on you because they have good offensive linemen combined with good running backs. Here it's Justin Shaffer and Broderick Jones on the left side who open a hole for James Cook, who then surges forward for extra yardage: 

A lot of times the TEs and OL work in tandem to create chunk gains on the ground. This play it's Jones and TE Darnell Washington: 

LT #59 and TE #0 on left side of the line

The offensive line was generally good enough to handle SEC defenses, but that also may have been a product of the quality of competition. The Dawgs faced only three top 25 rushing defenses this season (Michigan is in that category), tearing up Kentucky but being held under 4 YPC by Alabama and Clemson. 3.6-3.9 YPC isn't bad, but the reason I'm more critical of the OL is that I think the RBs for Georgia are really good and grind out extra yards. So, if you're only rushing for 3.6 YPC and the RBs are consistently getting you 1-2 extra per play, that's not a great sign for your OL. 

They got their wins on the ground against Alabama, but also plenty of plays that look like this: 

The Crimson Tide have a better rushing defense than Michigan, but I've also seen Michigan do enough against teams like OSU to believe they won't get paved into oblivion by Georgia's offensive line either. That said, even if the Wolverines win the battle up front, they still have to deal with Cook and Zamir White (in addition to McIntosh and maybe Milton). They're not quite KWIII good, but those boys are still studs. Here's a great run from White against Auburn: 

The patience, the vision, the muscle. A 5* back right there. Here's my favorite Cook clip I have, bouncing off tacklers: 

Cook's utility in the receiving game should also be mentioned, often running into the flat or lining up in the slot to run mesh routes. An example: 

That's an easy chunk gain that is often available. Mike Macdonald will need to have a plan for how he's going to deal with Cook as a receiving threat, because I don't want Josh Ross running in man on Cook, frankly. You may recall how that went in the last Michigan Orange Bowl when Don Brown tried to put McCray on Cook's brother. 

Beyond the running backs and Bowers, the rest of the offense's weapons are more by committee. I showed you that bomb to McConkey, while the other WRs have periodical highlights. If George Pickens is able to play in this game (COVID?) and is close to what he once was pre-ACL (in 2019-20), that's a problem. No highlights of him worth showing in these games because he either wasn't healthy or barely played, but just go back 11 months and you can find some: 

Georgia hasn't had a true #1 WR (just Bowers at TE), but Pickens would give them that. The non-Bowers TEs are mostly blockers, but Darnell Washington showcased this against Bama and it seems like a major mismatch in the redzone: 

He's 6'7" and if Bennett throws a ball like that, it's another play that no defense has an answer for. Feels automatic (though UGA hasn't used it much this season for some reason). 

The final component we need to talk about is the pass protection, because I laid out the significant way in which Bennett's play went downhill once pressure started to come. Like Stroud, he hasn't faced much of it because Georgia's OL has been pretty darn good this season. But much the way I sat during OSU week writing this column, watching OSU's tackles struggle against an elite passrusher in PSU's Arnold Ebiketie thinking "hmmmmmm what if that's Hutchinson?", I feel the same way about watching UGA against Alabama. Particularly in the second half of that game, the OL really started to struggle against Bama's edge guys, particularly Will Anderson. We should note that Anderson is an unreal football player who had a Heisman case this season (15.5 sacks! 32.5 TFL!), but you know who else also had a Heisman case? Aidan Hutchinson. 

Watching Anderson against Georgia made me believe this is a matchup that Hutchinson can win: 

Pressure came from the interior line too at times: 

Georgia's OL is good and talented, but not indestructible. It's very reasonable to wonder if the Dawgs will decide to double Hutchinson given the glut of TEs that they use (could also use a RB to chip!). Not to mention that they certainly watched the way Ryan Day's refusal to do so doomed the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor. 

 

How you beat Georgia's offense 

I've seen some people make comparisons between Georgia and Iowa and while I don't think it's a terribly good comparison, I don't think it's a bad one either. Adjustments for talent are necessary because Georgia is stacked with blue chips and Iowa builds its whole defense around the knowledge that they'll never be able to recruit high level athletes to play in Iowa City. But the way Michigan approached the B1G Championship Game is the same way they ought to approach the Orange Bowl in your author's opinion. The best way to beat Georgia's offense is to get them out of their comfort zone, and that requires forcing them to play from behind. When Bama went up 14-10 in the SEC title game, CBS showed us this graphic: 

Georgia did not take the lead again and lost by 17 points. Stetson Bennett IV is a good college QB, but he is not "bring you back from multiple touchdowns" good yet. Georgia does not want to have to skew their playcalls heavily towards the pass and make Bennett have to really make a ton of tough decisions. This is also because they lean on play-action to scheme open their receivers, something that is not possible when the situation requires you to line up in obvious passing situations.

Likewise, you can get them out of their comfort zone by pressuring Bennett and causing his decision-making to speed up, perhaps coaxing a few mistakes. 'Bama did both of those things: they got a lead, causing Georgia to pass more, and then got home with pressure, forcing a few gargantuan mistakes. That's the recipe. So, I'd like to see Harbaugh and Gattis dial up some home-run type plays to get that early lead (we'll see what those could be in the next FFFF looking at UGA's defense).

In terms of Georgia's down-to-down offense when they're not trailing, I think the best philosophy is to key in on the run. If you can't stop the run consistently, Georgia will be content to do it repeatedly and pave you into the ground. Remember, Kirby Smart has some Harbaugh in him. Stopping the run is critical because if you don't at least do that, the game is over before it starts. But keying in to stop the run has to come with crisp readiness for play-action. The adjustments Macdonald made to counteract the QB play-action bootlegs against Iowa seem like they should be installed from the beginning for this game because those sorts of plays are used often by Todd Monken's offense.

But this includes corners not biting hard on play-action because Georgia loves to hit you over the top for the big play when the corners bite. Perhaps the biggest tension in the game plan is whether Michigan will play with two high safeties to be a safety net against the big passing play, or whether they'll consistently play with a safety in the box to stop the run. I suppose it hinges on how confident Macdonald is in his front seven against UGA's OL and TEs. Moreover, I think Macdonald should take a page out of Kirk Ferentz's defense by varying coverages in confusing and tricky ways to coax interceptions, a strategy Iowa has used since 2017 to produce INTs at high rates. Bennett's reads are not always great and throwing out a variety of NFL coverages (which Macdonald should have up his sleeve!) could force the QB to make a brutal INT or two. Giving the Michigan offense a lift on defense through turnovers/field position would be huge. 

The other big decision looming is how Michigan is going to handle Bowers. No one is capable of actually covering him but I'm intrigued to learn whether they designate a LB/S that has that responsibility or if it's a rotation of guys. Outside of Bowers, I feel good about Michigan's ability to handle Georgia's WR, with the slight exception being if Pickens is suddenly the 2020 version of himself again. Good tackling is crucial on the RBs, who can grind out those free yards, but Georgia as a team is much more Wisconsin than Ohio State. They're not going to torch you unless it's off play-action or an RB getting free. They're much more likely to break your will and stomp you than run circles around you. If Michigan comes in with a good game plan and holds up against the run, I like their chances of holding Georgia to under 30, perhaps under 25. The question, of course, is whether you can even score 20 against that defense. We'll look at that on Thursday.