Oh, Crap

Never tell me the odds!

Hey Ralph, I just wanted to drop you a line and say I think you have a great Michigan Blog going......keep it up!!!

Yowzaa....can we really say it's surprising after what we've seen?  I'm hoping and praying that we beat Purdue, NW and Minnesota at the very least.....and THAT proposition seems unlikely without those crazy new-fangled computers.

Out of curiosity, how is "Chris" confused with "Harold"?  That's just embarrassing.  I'm pretty sure if I'd been randomly calling some dude "Harold" for the last 4 years and they finally got fed up enough to tell me their name is actually "Chris", I would want to avoid Harold/Chris for at least 6 months to a year afterwards.

I always find that statistics are hard to swallow and impossible to digest. The only one I can ever remember is that if all the people who go to sleep in church were laid end to end, they would be a lot more comfortable. - Mrs. Robert Taft. 

.....for at least 2 of those games are out:

MSU -3.5 at UM.......first time I saw this line it was UM -1, then last week MSU -1....now Sparty is laying a FG and a hook.

OSU -20.5 at home vs UM......line has steadily grown from 14.5 since the start of the season.....not sure if OSU can even score that many points. Of course, UM could get shutout.

As for the other games.....I would have no trouble taking UM and the points if the actual lines are as high as those computer numbers point.

We are in games, folks, as long as we can avoid turnovers. I realize thats a lot to ask of this team, but eventually the madness has to stop.

Right!?!?!

is based on NFL spreads.  Isn't it a rare event for any NFL team to be favored by 21 points?  I don't think I have ever heard of a point spread over 30 points, so this is based on a very small sample this far out.  It may be extrapolated out from the smaller spreads, though, but still.

Also, it has been said that since they are "pros" in the NFL, on any given Sunday...

But until only recently, I used to think that on any given Saturday, Alabama would beat the living crap out of EMU.  And I don't think that is the case anymore.

I don't quite have as pessimistic outlook as these numbers indicate.  But close. 

Thanks for that Brian. I'm going to go throw up now.

Dave

Maizenbrew.com

Do those figures factor in Inevitable Spartan Collapse?

Caveman's right.  That'w what made me laugh.  The rest of the post was obscured by tears.

The application of pro numbers to the college game is a poor fit, mathematically.  That said, I can't argue that the ultimate results seem that unrealistic.  I think we get a few breaks and win one or two more, but sheesh.

so that any wins will be a pleasant surprise. And I am 100% behind RR, so F you naysayers.

That "chemical burn" scene from Fight Club was strangely calming..... 

so can any part of a 2-3 win season be blamed on RR? and if so, what part of that failure, specifically?

Since most numbers bases analysis is interesting, this is interesting. However, there is huge volatility in this particular analysis especially as applied to Michigan.

1. Timing. Doing this analysis now, after M's worst loss, predicts the basement. Lines change wildly over the course of a season and are still volatile week to week. Just look at Minnesota. They get a huge bump from beating Illinois but is anyone comfortable that game is an accurate gage of the relative strength of those 2 teams?

2. If jamiemac is correct, the Vegas line for the MSU game (at least) is crazy different from the computer line.

3. This Michigan team is considerably more volatile than your average team. They also have more room (and expectation to believe they will) to improve than your average team.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised by 4-8 but think losing all remaining games is very unlikely. Unless Threet gets hurt 3-9 is pretty tough and will make me sad. I also think that the games Michigan wins and loses will continue to be an odd jumble of inconsistency that eludes prediction. This team, at its worst, is not much better than ND from last season but they have a much higher ceiling. These stats treat them the same.

.4%

 So you're saying there's a chance.

This is very interesting, but I'm not following the methodolgy. I use PREDICTOR all the time but what are then other numbers you are using? Can you explain in a little more detail?

Also, everyone should keep in mind that the Vegas line is not designed to be an indicator of score or outcome.

I would like to see our odds after the PSU and MSU games. If we keep it close vs PSU, those lines will drop quickly, especially if our offense scores a few times. Plus, a lot of people have been talking about us beating MSU because all they have is Ringer and if we stop him like we stopped PJ Hill, their offense stops functioning. If those two games turn out this way, the lines shift and we have a much better odds of beating Purdue, Minnesota, and NW.

Imagine if they had done this analysis on USC after the OSU defeat. They would have had a near 100% chance of being 12-0 or possibly 13-0. We all know how that turned out. This is college football and it is largely based on emotions. Statistics cannot account for that. I still think there is a good chance we hit 6-6.

Even if these numbers are flawed, they paint a picture of the reality of things as they are.  I have no hopes left.  As I have watched the season unfold, the grim reality has settled in that our beloved program does not reside in such lofty heights so as to be immune from the problems that lesser programs have in making a major coaching/system change.  We too can go through a rebuilding period.  Its been a good run and good things are coming, but for now all we have to do grin and bear it and take comfort in the fact that Coach Rodrigues has done this before.  He needs more than talent, he needs his kind of talent.  His system takes time to learn and perfect.  I expect that by the time my eldest is applying for pre-med at UM in two years things should be sorted out and we will be the terror of the Big Ten.  Till then...its all pain and suffering...think expatiation...purgatory...a cleansing for the glory to come...

Maybe on the bright side some of these haters will give up their death grip on their season's tickets and it will be possible to buy a family block to enjoy and pass on to my kids and grand kids...

downst - gotta love the obscure Ace Ventura Pet Detective reference

I like your optimism.  You must have hope or else you'll go crazy.

"Sanity may be madness but the maddest of all is to see life as it is and not as it should be."

...my midterms now seem infinitely less painful. However, my reasoning behind dropping $60 on a Penn State ticket seems even more flawed than it was five minutes ago.