Oh, Crap

Didn't Vegas also give us the 10th best odds to make it to the national title game this year?

There is one source of hope: intangibles. In college football, anything can happen. I am still confident we can win out (except probably against PSU... but whatever). If you could just go by the numbers, USC would be undefeated every year. I think it would help if someone sent this research to the team... it would motivate the hell out of me in their situation.

Speaking of intangibles don't forget that -- hard as it may be to believe during this season -- the players may have completely overlooked Toledo (it's happened before) and forgot about the whole "Oh yeah we aren't good now" thing. I'm sure at least some of them did. So... I'm saying there's a chance...

give up their tix in frustration this year, then all this pain will have been worth it.

One random fact I unearthed yesterday is that in all the years we've been playing MSU, Sparty has never once scored as many as 40 points on us. If that's going to happen any year, it will be this one. Not sure I'd bet on that, though.

But soon as UM beats somebody those point spreads change.  Just beating Purdue would probably put the Northwestern game at less than a TD.  Beating little bro would make big changes.  I still think we win at least 2 more.

Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings are distinctly biased towards high scoring (fast paced) teams,  because he uses a 1D game-output function (using only the point differential), and, of course, fast-paced teams create a larger point differential even though the game's not that much more winnable. I liked Massey's "power" ratings better (he uses a 2D GOF), but they're gone now, unfortunately.

Sigh. Someone really needs to come up with a college-football rating that's intended to be predictive, rather than descriptive (which is what you need for the BCS) and is *transparent*, so people can criticize it. 

Future games arent independent events, if they were the lines wouldnt change after a game.  the mean is still accurate but your tails are way too thin.

After OSU lost to Illinois last season, Chris calculated that the Buckeyes had a 2% chance of getting to the NC game.

Strange things can happen.

i always thought it was funny that stassen's name was "harold."

harold stassen was the punchline for one of my favorite doonesbury cartoons, once i looked him up (this was pre-internet, i'll point out).  the guys are playing poker, and one says "my hand has the strength and determination of robert mcnamara."  the next says "mine has the charisma of ted kennedy."  after a beat, mike mumbles "harold stassen."  or some such - turns out that stassen was a perennial losing presidential candidate, sorta like ralph nader or dennis kucinich.  i seem to recall a simpsons reference, too, but i can't remember what it was.

the point?  too bad it's NOT harold stassen, maybe we could disregard the numbers. 

Remember - the intention of Vegas Odds isn't to be predictive - it's to establish a spread on which people will gamble. So, if the perception held by teh vast majority of gamblers, who likely haven't watched that many games, is that Michigan is completely horrendous, they will need more points to bet on UM. The spread is a number based on perception - not an analysis of the teams.

...my midterms now seem infinitely less painful. However, my reasoning behind dropping $60 on a Penn State ticket seems even more flawed than it was five minutes ago.

i see tickets are available from the box office.  guess it will not be a sell out.  no surprise.

NW game may not even break 100K.  that would be another tradition gone. 

downst - gotta love the obscure Ace Ventura Pet Detective reference

I like your optimism.  You must have hope or else you'll go crazy.

"Sanity may be madness but the maddest of all is to see life as it is and not as it should be."

Even if these numbers are flawed, they paint a picture of the reality of things as they are.  I have no hopes left.  As I have watched the season unfold, the grim reality has settled in that our beloved program does not reside in such lofty heights so as to be immune from the problems that lesser programs have in making a major coaching/system change.  We too can go through a rebuilding period.  Its been a good run and good things are coming, but for now all we have to do grin and bear it and take comfort in the fact that Coach Rodrigues has done this before.  He needs more than talent, he needs his kind of talent.  His system takes time to learn and perfect.  I expect that by the time my eldest is applying for pre-med at UM in two years things should be sorted out and we will be the terror of the Big Ten.  Till then...its all pain and suffering...think expatiation...purgatory...a cleansing for the glory to come...

Maybe on the bright side some of these haters will give up their death grip on their season's tickets and it will be possible to buy a family block to enjoy and pass on to my kids and grand kids...

sounds like one or both of these games could have below 100K in attendance...... unfortunately another tradition may fall.

wins this week, all those numbers go flying out the window. Gone. Pfft. Seeya.

I would like to see our odds after the PSU and MSU games. If we keep it close vs PSU, those lines will drop quickly, especially if our offense scores a few times. Plus, a lot of people have been talking about us beating MSU because all they have is Ringer and if we stop him like we stopped PJ Hill, their offense stops functioning. If those two games turn out this way, the lines shift and we have a much better odds of beating Purdue, Minnesota, and NW.

Imagine if they had done this analysis on USC after the OSU defeat. They would have had a near 100% chance of being 12-0 or possibly 13-0. We all know how that turned out. This is college football and it is largely based on emotions. Statistics cannot account for that. I still think there is a good chance we hit 6-6.

And you will never be disappointed I guess...but I'm more of a glass is 1/20th full kinda guy

This is very interesting, but I'm not following the methodolgy. I use PREDICTOR all the time but what are then other numbers you are using? Can you explain in a little more detail?

Also, everyone should keep in mind that the Vegas line is not designed to be an indicator of score or outcome.

if we go 2-10 we get the first pick in the draft

47.6% of all statistics are made up on the spot!

.4%

 So you're saying there's a chance.

This is very interesting, but I'm not following the methodolgy. Can you explain in a little more detail?

Also, everyone should keep in mind that the Vegas line is not designed to be an indicator of score or outcome.

Since most numbers bases analysis is interesting, this is interesting. However, there is huge volatility in this particular analysis especially as applied to Michigan.

1. Timing. Doing this analysis now, after M's worst loss, predicts the basement. Lines change wildly over the course of a season and are still volatile week to week. Just look at Minnesota. They get a huge bump from beating Illinois but is anyone comfortable that game is an accurate gage of the relative strength of those 2 teams?

2. If jamiemac is correct, the Vegas line for the MSU game (at least) is crazy different from the computer line.

3. This Michigan team is considerably more volatile than your average team. They also have more room (and expectation to believe they will) to improve than your average team.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised by 4-8 but think losing all remaining games is very unlikely. Unless Threet gets hurt 3-9 is pretty tough and will make me sad. I also think that the games Michigan wins and loses will continue to be an odd jumble of inconsistency that eludes prediction. This team, at its worst, is not much better than ND from last season but they have a much higher ceiling. These stats treat them the same.

so can any part of a 2-3 win season be blamed on RR? and if so, what part of that failure, specifically?

so that any wins will be a pleasant surprise. And I am 100% behind RR, so F you naysayers.

That "chemical burn" scene from Fight Club was strangely calming..... 

Caveman's right.  That'w what made me laugh.  The rest of the post was obscured by tears.

The application of pro numbers to the college game is a poor fit, mathematically.  That said, I can't argue that the ultimate results seem that unrealistic.  I think we get a few breaks and win one or two more, but sheesh.

Do those figures factor in Inevitable Spartan Collapse?

Thanks for that Brian. I'm going to go throw up now.

Dave

Maizenbrew.com

is based on NFL spreads.  Isn't it a rare event for any NFL team to be favored by 21 points?  I don't think I have ever heard of a point spread over 30 points, so this is based on a very small sample this far out.  It may be extrapolated out from the smaller spreads, though, but still.

Also, it has been said that since they are "pros" in the NFL, on any given Sunday...

But until only recently, I used to think that on any given Saturday, Alabama would beat the living crap out of EMU.  And I don't think that is the case anymore.

I don't quite have as pessimistic outlook as these numbers indicate.  But close. 

Thanks for that Brian. I'm going to go throw up now.

Well, before we all collectively jump off a cliff, keep in mind that Vegas/Sagarin lines will change over the course of a season.  If Michigan should somehow beat Penn St. (or at least make it a very close game), then the ensuing lines should tighten up.

In other words, based on how our season has gone to date, this is a good reflection of how it will go in the future if nothing else of significance changes from here on out.  The odds of that occuring are probably lower than the odds of Michigan finishing 2-10.

.....for at least 2 of those games are out:

MSU -3.5 at UM.......first time I saw this line it was UM -1, then last week MSU -1....now Sparty is laying a FG and a hook.

OSU -20.5 at home vs UM......line has steadily grown from 14.5 since the start of the season.....not sure if OSU can even score that many points. Of course, UM could get shutout.

As for the other games.....I would have no trouble taking UM and the points if the actual lines are as high as those computer numbers point.

We are in games, folks, as long as we can avoid turnovers. I realize thats a lot to ask of this team, but eventually the madness has to stop.

Right!?!?!