Really? Give Will Heininger a little more recognition after a superb senior season.
Mike Spath points out that doing an interview for the official site is a pretty good indicator he'll be back.
Hobbled Lewan would be very bad: Andy Morrison|Toledo Blade
Any team that remains relatively healthy for an entire season is going to be doggone good, and doggoner lucky. Until the Sugar Bowl, when Heininger went out and Molk would have been sidelined if he was anybody but David Molk in his last game at Michigan, Team 132's most significant injury losses were Odoms, the sum total of various dings that kept Woolfolk from being as T-Wolf-ian as he used to be, and Barnum missing extensive time. All were replaced by more than competent backups, respectively Gallon, T.Gordon, and Schofield. Depth at the positions of ding-itude (and relative health elsewhere) was an understated but important part of the strong second half and thin margin by which Hoke's first team ended up winning a BCS bowl.
If 2012 proves an underwhelming sequel, the most likely culprit will be injuries at certain positions where they can be ill afforded. Since so much of this year's ultimate preview is bound to be extraordinarily rah-rah, here I'll try to temper those expectations a bit by predicting what the drop-off might be if we lose any given starter. If negative hypotheticals tend to make rain clouds appear over your head, well, either you're closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge or you are not aware of the caliber of disaster indicated by the presence of a pool table in your community.
Quickly. Photos are all by Upchurch unless otherwise noted. Ratings are given in Saturn-punting Zoltans. Think of them like stars except more heavenly. Five is an all-conference-type player (Denard to Kovacs); four is a guy you'd call "solid" (RVB to Demens); three is an average B1G player (Morgan to Hawthorne); two is a guy with a big hole in his game (freshman Kovacs); one is trouble with a capital T, and that rhymes with P, and that stands for Poole.
In case of emergency: Devin Gardner was a 5-star recruit at the most important and most scouted position in football, has played relatively extensively for a backup, and has athletic powers not quite Denard-level but still far beyond mortal Division I signal callers. The drop-off from Denard to the Devin from practice chatter is measurable but not dire; the fall from Denard to the Devin we've seen in limited action so far is precipitous.
If the inconceivable is conceived, the offense could be simplified and lean far more on Toussaint, both to make things easier on Gardner and because if he gets hurt we're down to Bellomy and walk-ons. How unready Gardner is can be overstated; he's either a redshirt sophomore or a junior depending on how recently Gordon Gee bought your NCAA contact a beer, and this is plenty old enough to have a feel for the offense. Then again, when he's been in… Ultimately Michigan can win 8 games with Gardner; with Denard the upside on the season is roses.
In case of dire emergency: Bellomy looked cool in the Spring Game, but I wouldn't expect more than 2008 Threet out of him at this point in his career. Spread outfits like Northwestern and Purdue have made it work with such guys before, so it's not DEATH. It's hard to see him beating the tougher parts of the schedule.
In case of emergency: The emergence of Fitz last year finally broke Michigan out of a three-year period of carries by broken bits of Minor or guys who could do one thing very well and all other things okay well. Previous the-guys like Hart/Perry/A-Train could get more yards than the defense's execution gave them by having multiple strengths. In Fitz's case those X-factors are Perry-like vision, Carlos Brown-level breakaway speed, plus the Hart-like quality Brian historically refers to as "juking a guy in a phone booth." If he could truck he'd a Heisman candidate. As it is he gives defenses another guy they have to "cheat" around by scheme/alignment/personnel at the cost of weakening something else.
Losing Fitz means going back to a committee of guys who do one or two things well. A passing spread could be just fine with Smith, who's the best blocker among the backs, is dangerous as a screen/catching target, and has some of those Pahokee jackrabbit genes that magnify his effectiveness as space increases. So long as Borges can resist the urge to ISOs with him the offense can still be the best in the conference, if not Oregon-good. Remember 2009 with Brown and Minor? That plus a senior QB. And that wasn't so terrible. Since Smith will get in anyway, the primary beneficiary of an injury to Toussaint is Justice Hayes. Hayes (right) has already outgrown his Breaston-skinny recruiting profile and flashed Toussaint-like skills. In high school he was a good enough receiver that people thought his future was at slot. If he can block too Michigan might have something here.
The Minor in this equation is either Rawls or Hopkins. Rawls we've seen in spring and limited carries last year and seems as advertised: a trunk-legged trucker. All said, the drop from The Guy™ to the guys is a star-and-a-half but the committee is strong enough that the sum difference will probably be one or two of Purdue-Illinois-Northwestern-Iowa getting closer than they would have.
In case of dire emergency: We have two freshmen. If Norfleet isn't returning this year I'd like to see him get the Breaston redshirt to put on some muscle; Drake Johnson could rotate into garbage time now. Hopkins can be dragooned from fullback if we lose Rawls.
In case of emergency: Hopkins seems to have fallen out of the RB conversation since moving to fullback—equal parts Rawls' emergence and fumblitis—but when I look at him I see a young Leroy Hoard, and when I look at the TE depth chart I see plenty of two-RB sets no matter who the feature back is; with Toussaint hurt Hopkins could get Hoard-like usage. There isn't another guy on the roster like Hopkins, but Kerridge is by accounts a decent fullbackian fullback, and if he isn't there's 5th year senior Paul Gyarmati and 3-star fullbackian recruit Sione Houma's redshirt to burn before we run out of noses to stuff into linebackers. I do believe the position will be featured more than in recent memory, but I think if Hopkins goes down it will be less so since he's the only real running threat among the group. So far as I know none of them are the Aaron Shea/Brian Thompson kind of receiving threat; for that Michigan will probably use a U-back, currently Ricardo Miller and Jordan Paskorz.
In case of emergency: The good news: the fall from Michigan's 5th year returning starter to his backups doesn't look too bad. The bad news: the drop-off from the 2nd team to random walk-ons is barely different. Of the group Moore had a good TE's recruiting profile though he's flashed neither Martell Webb's blocking ability nor Koger's receiving skills. In a typical Hoke year you'll see two TE starters but we're not there yet.
Ricardo Miller is the next guy in, but is a vastly different guy. As a junior in high school Miller was one of the top recruits in Florida, the star of power program Dr. Phillips, a National Honor Society member, and an early commit who gave us dreams of the next #1. His senior year he moved to Ann Arbor and ended up a stiff TE in Pioneer's option offense, pushing his rating to MSU-ish 3-star. There's still three years of eligibility for him to turn into Tim Massaquoi, and that seems like the path he's on, though the dearth of practice hype to that effect and equal reps for so many other guys makes the murmurs deafening. The opposite side of the coin from Miller is A.J. Williams, a true freshman who played OT and can therefore block a defensive end, which makes him useful now at the Y, especially when Michigan goes to (it's not dead yet) tight formations. Anything happens to Moore and Williams/Miller are probably trading off based on situation.
A few more common Spring tea leaves for a position in trouble are a sudden burst of hype for a senior walk-on, and position switchers climbing the depth chart. We have that in Mike Kwiatkowski and Jordan Paskorz. All told my guess is Michigan will play one tight end some of the time, two tight ends rarely, and if injury strikes Moore we'll see Miller and a lot more fullback sets.
In case of emergency: Like tight end, the backups here are not a huge drop-off but there's simply not enough dudes with experience to fill the depth chart. Unlike tight end there's a lot of talent and reason for hope. While Tree and Gallon are established as what they are, and Jeremy Jackson is probably not much more than a possession change-of-pace, there's some wideout wild cards in Jerald Robinson and two good freshmen, either of whom could be a starter by the start of the conference season.
Borges does prefer to have a prototype split end and flanker (and a slot), but both guys at the top of the depth chart are spread slots. Gallon is best in the slot, and more so than fullback the tight end situation benefits the existence of a third receiver most plays. Roundtree is now at Hemingway's old position, the flanker, which starts in the backfield and gets to run plays designed to get him open. Who wins the split end position out of J-Rob and the freshmen will mean much for how the unit develops. Since there's seven guys for what should be three positions, nobody is really out of the rotation unless one freshman is significantly ahead of the other.
If Gallon gets hurt, Dileo is a similar type of player and can be used in the same role—he should rotate in plenty as it is. If Roundtree is lost for an extensive time, you may get a long look at Jerome Jackson in that role, something that would signify the corps as a whole will have limitations. The hope here is that the receivers won't have to face super-tough coverage while defenses react to Denard and Fitz, but it's hard to call the difference because the starters and the depth are largely different types of players.
In case of dire emergency: A scenario that sees Roundtree and Gallon hurt (and/or somebody getting very serious about damage to parking gates) probably sees Michigan go "big" (think 2001 with Walker) with routes designed to get whoever Denard feels the most comfort with mismatched against smaller DBs.
Heiko took these. The one at right was accidentally not credited in HTTV.
In case of emergency: It's Jack Miller, who has some Molkian qualities about him but is a redshirt freshman, still gaining muscle, and liable to be thrown around like a ragdoll by the Ogbu's of the world as Molk was. The non-feasibility of Miller starting was underlined when Barnum was announced early in Spring as the center. This depleted the guards but at least there's a live body to snap it if Barnum gets hurt.
Spring proved that gap is wider than we thought, as Barnum established himself as clearly the best interior offensive lineman and tailor-made center for the transitional year's offense. Meanwhile we've heard little from Miller. He wasn't highly recruited but centers rarely are, especially spread centers. The caveat for this is until you see them play you have little else to go on. If Barnum gets hurt, the interior line is probably a team weakness, and teams with immobile DTs will probably bog Michigan's offense down by making it tough to run to the interior. But then if he can reach block like Molk it won't matter so much who's taking up space behind the play.
In case of emergency: By "emergency" you mean anything happening to the starters, which would almost certainly see a true freshman drawn in. The true freshman in question is a 5-star and the most college-ready linemen we've recruited since that's been something we can qualify, but a freshman nonetheless, and one whose brightest future is probably at guard, possibly immediately since Elliot Mealer and a walk-on seem to be the competition for the left guard spot. Mealer was beaten rather badly by Minnesota on a day Minnesota was doing half of the blocking on Minnesota in his one garbage time moonlight on the outside, and I'd rather never see that happen again. So even if the true freshman wins a starting job this fall, an injury to Lewan or Schofield sees Mealer slide back to guard and Kalis is the guy, despite the fact he probably hasn't even figured out the Tisch-to-Mason cut through yet.
We'll get a tiny feel for just how much of a drop-off this is when the squishy part of the schedule yields opportunity to rotate the starters out and let Kalis get some seasoning, but such situations are doubtful to yield much in the way of passing plays against blitzes and hell-bent rush ends. If the unthinkable happens, however, you'll see an appreciable difference in Michigan's passing game, especially early, as they try to lean on whichever RS junior is left standing. Rollouts, runs to the other side, shorter routes, that sort of thing. One thing he'll have going for him is ends don't want to risk losing contain on Denard, so Kalis would not be forced to block a full-on pass rush very often.
Even as he settles in, this is making a position of strength into a weakness, in the case of Lewan like going from Verlander right now to Jacob Turner (for you baseball fans). I would also guess Schofield slides to left to cover Denard's backside.
In case of dire emergency: If any two of the above-mentioned go down I think Ben Braden is the next of the freshmen closest to being ready to play, even if Magnuson probably has a higher ceiling. It's possible Omameh could shift outside too—he's not big but he's quick enough to be a spread tackle and played there before—if one of the existing interior options proves to be a better option.
In case of really dire emergency: It's Gunderson, who looked exactly awful in the Spring Game even when the defense went to playing soft so that Gardner could do something other than get chased by the guy Gunderson was blocking. Or Magnuson. Or Chaucer. Rabelais. Balzac!
In case of emergency: Burzynski got the start in the Spring Game and looked good for a guy not much bigger than my brother. This bodes unwell for nominal starter Elliott Mealer, the last man standing from Carrs 2008 offensive line recruits now that Khoury has moved on. That Bryant is behind both of them says he still hasn't gotten into playing shape, although the redshirt freshman may be closer to that by fall. Anyway if he's not needed as the only breathing tackle Kyle Kalis has as good a shot as anyone at starting left guard this fall.
Omameh is the O-line's longest tenured starter and was brilliant as a spread guard who gets to the 2nd level, something he didn't get to do much of last year. His upside as Destroyer of Teo's makes the relative value of losing him a variable, but large any way you calculate it. Any of the freshmen named earlier, plus Blake Bars, might be cast into a guard role this year. Fortunately there's a lot of O-line recruits on their way in case we burn a lot of redhsirts in 2012, but a quick glance at the depth chart by class reveals a fist-shaking inattention to the O-line.
I imagine by later this year Bryant is closer to being ready to contribute. He was a planetary object brought into to be stripped apart and rebuilt; enough pieces have been reattached at this point that he managed to show some life in Spring. He's a year away from being a ready asset.
In case of dire emergency: Q-Wash might be moved back in a pinch. Anyway, two injuries anywhere on the O-line and I'm writing a Decimated Offense article. Spoiler: it will say Rodriguez expected to recruit a huge O-line class in 2011 in order to have lots of RS freshmen ready to stand behind the 2012 upperclassmen, but because linemen commit early and prefer stability (remember: usually three years before they see the field) and with much of 2010 was poisoned this plan backfired. None of this will be solace to you if the O-line falls apart this year. I'm more worried now than I was before, and I was really worried before.
All told, this is a thinner offense than it was a year ago. The difference between the starters and their backups is two
stars Saturn-Punting Zoltans or more at five positions, six if you think Fitz Toussaint is All Big Ten. Nowhere on the offense is there a ready guy like 2011 Schofield or T.Gordon burning a hole in the depth chart, unless one of the freshman tight ends or receivers move into open starting roles.
Really? Give Will Heininger a little more recognition after a superb senior season.
Wait, what? i said his injury was significant -- actually I said there weren't any significant injuries until his. I mentioned him before Molk even.
EDIT: Ahhh, now I see'd. That was a typo.
nm I see you edited.
Great stuff nonetheless.
Why Magnuson get no Zoltans or ???
Just made that copyedit too. I've got the WL editor open if you see any more.
I'm on the job.
in the WR section you call Jeremy Jackson: "Jerome Jackson"
While Tree and Gallon are established as what they are, and Jerome Jackson
Hyyyyarrrh - ninja pirate copyediting.
I need a copy editor. I copyedit the other guys but can't do it for my own stuff. Jerome 24 Jackson indeed. Where is he now?
Is poised for a breakout year.
and you can expect to see Pierre Rembert or perhaps Mister Simpson if Jerome Jackson goes down.
We would definitely be in trouble if Jerome Jackson had to step in at receiver.
I love the "I destroyed something beautiful" tag. Originally used for a post about Brian's rain-soaked laptop, but just as appropriate here.
I had heard that Ricardo Miller's experiment as a TE/U Back was terminated and that he was redeployed to the WR corps.
To me that Kalis will be starting at guard by the time conference play opens. If something happens to Lewan, we are in trouble.
Why not mention of Funchess outside of the ???? in the ratings?
Williams got a lot of ink/speculation. Devin isn't even in there. I don't think it'd be a shock to see the two freshman playing with Moore by mid-season.
Also, I too think Kalis should be at guard.
Other than that...good stuff! Nice read.
Because he's simply not ready to go this year, and the coaches have said he's going to redshirt. He doesn't have anything right now that Ricardo Miller doesn't.
Add me to the "Y U no put Kalis on Guard Chart-of-Doom Chart???" crowd
Because he's at tackle chart of doom chart. He's obviously the first guy in at pretty much any OL position, but the point is to see the drop-off between the starter and the next guy. Until he plays Kalis is an unknown so it's hard to use him as a baseline. I noted he has a good chance of being the starting guard over Mealer.
Because they are going to be needed in 2013, I wonder if Braden, Bars, Magnuson, and Kalis, all things being equal, are less likely to RS than they normally would.
My feeling, based entirely on reading (no film study); Braden has a higher ceiling than Magnuson but Magnuson will be more ready to contribute off the bat.
I've read the opposite. Magnuson has a very high ceiling but needs to gain strength and finish growing. Braden was expected to need more time to grow when he committed (the first of 2012) but he then grew. The difference between them is probably miniscule: both should be redshirting, as should almost all offensive linemen always. A guy like Kalis, Boren, or Maurice Williams who can play right away is very rare. A guy who can play tackle right away is rarer still. Redshirt sophomore or junior is typically when a lineman's career begins. Anyway the 2012 guys came with a unique opportunity to play early. At least the 2013 haul is behind them. In four years this offensive line should be very very good.
Why no DG at WR in case of emergency?
Goodness, so much Music Man!
This (very well put together, I should add) post makes me scared. And by scared I mean absolutely terrified if some of our top players get injured. Especially on the lines. If the injuries start stockpiling, we could see a repeat of something like 2007...
Can you imagine on a Buckeye blog?
sigh. I remember when I was excited about him
Ricardo Miller was the starting slot receiver when I talked to him after spring ball. He was down to 225 from 235, but was still working on his blocking technique, which tells me that Borges plans to use him like a slot/U combo guy, perhaps due to the lack of actual Y-style TEs.
The U-back in general should be able to split out as a slot receiver. He's a motion guy, and that motion doesn't always have to be across the formation. Nebraska has a guy who does this regularly I think. Notre Dame of course does this with their TEs. Essentially he's a Z receiver who can block, whereas we're used to Z receivers whose job it is to be nightmares in 1-on-1 matchups. I put him with the TEs because the U-back is more TE-ish than receiver, but I can easily see why that distinction gets blurred, especially in the case of a receiverish U-back. If Moore goes down, AJ Williams draws in at the Y. Here's last year's breakdown by personnel:
|1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR (Ace Trips)||41.46%|
|1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR (Ace Twins)||18.10%|
|2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR (Pro Set)||16.43%|
|1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR (Spread)||9.76%|
|2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR (Usually that I-form Trips thing)||6.68%|
|2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR ("Big")||4.75%|
|2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR (Goal line)||1.54%|
|3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR ("Fritz")||0.64%|
|0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR (Empty)||Twice (0.26%)|
|3 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR (Power I)||Once (0.13%)|
|1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR (Field goal)||Once|
|1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR (Ace 3TE)||Once|
So with Koger we were mostly a 1TE team. Now the TE depth chart is basically what it was minus Koger. Typical personnel:
That 1.3 for RBs is pretty high in this, this day of Ace sets. What caused that to be so high was Vincent Smith's usage as a receiver, either in that I-form to Ace motion formation we used a lot at the beginning of the season, or later in the season when he we'd line up in the shotgun with a 2-back set or 1-back set and he'd motion out into the slot. Since defensive coaches will usually call their formation and alignment based on personnel, this was a way to make the defense "wrong" a lot. I would image more of the same this year because I'm betting on a repeat of Smith over Ricardo as designated motion-to-fuck-with-opponents guy until Miller proves me otherwise. Obviously the coaches would love to have him be the guy making defenses wrong by lining him up at U-back and motioning him into the slot, or vice-versa because he makes a better receiving target than Smith. On the other hand the smurfy running back at this point is the better pass blocker. Miller might be a good breakout candidate for 2013.
The running backs are better this year while the receivers and TEs both graduated top performers. Receiver should be able to fill in and it's still a West Coast-y spread offense so I don't see the receiver usage dropping. That means a shift from TE to more RB.
He's always been 4.5 banana peels in my book.
One has to wonder why Scout and Rivals have not adopted the Space Emperor (of Space) icon for rating players, opting instead for one of heavenly bodies over which the SE(oS) exercises his benevolent puissance.
One can only conclude that since the SE(oS) is occupied with, you know, running the universe, he has deigned to allow the feeble and insignificant star icon to be used.
HAIL MIGHTY ZOLTAN!!!!
For such ultimately Michigan-agnostic agents such as Scout and Rivals, to use the Zoltan scale directly is blasphemous. Only the true believers may invoke His mighty name. Scout and Rivals may allude to The Inconceivable by using stars, which we rightly recognize as the Dominion of the Space Emperor (of Space!) but which are not in and of themselves profaned by their invocation by those outside the priesthood of the Michigan Men.
Also, +1 for puissance
Great analysis, but I thought the recycling bin was going to redshirt this year.
Ahhh, actual detailed, in-depth, preview like substance for football. I needed this fix, my withdrawal symptoms were starting to get quite bad.
Great work, thanks Seth. I look forward to the post on the defense.
Excellent Music Man reference, Seth. Well played.
I also think Joey Burzinski should be listed at FB as a Jumbo play option. 6'1" 285 = leverage, lol
Say, in the Alabama game, and gets the opportunity at a fifth year, does he stay?
A friend of mine had a crazy thought after having looked at the 2013 schedule that if such a scenario were to play out and he came back we'd be in perfect position to go undefeated and play for a BCS championship. What are your guys' thoughts on that possibility?
It caught my eye at first because he looks abnormally black for a guy who I think is Samoan and in the article if you float on the picture it says "Fish" which I presume is Houma's teammate Fish Smithson that's also mentioned in the article
Holy hell you're right. Fixing now. I linked the wrong image.
With our absolutely astounding lack of depth I can't see why he would have left. Was football just not his thing anymore? One would think that the coaches would have done everything possible (and they may have) to keep him around this year. Maybe someone knows the whole story.
that Recycling Bin; had some serious wheels but couldn't keep his flap shut, also shitty pad level.
FWIW Mike Farrell always liked him.
Has there been some talk of Dennis Norfleet leaving? May have missed it.
did you post this for kicks?
No. Seth wrote, " If Norfleet isn't returning this year I'd like to see him get the Breaston redshirt to put on some muscle"
Was unsure what he meant by this.
ED: HAHAHA - returning - as in returning kick offs. FAIL.
I'd put Bellomy above Devin.