Michigan Earns NCAA One-Seed, Plays Play-In Winner Saturday
We were busy recording a live podcast while the selection show was going on and then the Big Ten hockey quarterfinals started soon after, so I apologize for belatedly posting this news you probably know by now. The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket is out and Michigan took the final one-seed to stand atop the "East region" (the entire tourney is in the Indianapolis area).
The Wolverines await the winner of Thursday's play-in game between 16-seeds Mount St. Mary's and Texas Southern; they'll face whichever team moves into the field of 64 on Saturday. Barring a catastrophe, they'll take on the winner of the 8/9 game between LSU and St. Bonaventure on Monday. Yes, the tournament weekend is Friday-Monday instead of Thursday-Sunday this year. Yes, it's weird and unsettling.
Anyway, here is Michigan's region:
This is, on the whole, a pretty good draw. The 8/9 matchup doesn't contain any of the potential worst-case scenarios, particularly an underseeded Loyola-Chicago team, which ended up as the 8-seed in the Midwest region headlined by one-seed Illinois. Florida State is a solid four-seed but their defense isn't top-tier and their size won't bother Hunter Dickinson. Colorado took great advantage of playing home games at altitude and hasn't been the same team away from Boulder.
On the other side of the region, Alabama is an interesting potential matchup with their up-tempo, threes-or-layups-only approach, though it's their elite defense that's been propping up a merely solid offense. They get a potentially brutal second-round matchup with a UConn squad that's been great when star James Bouknight is healthy. Texas, the #26 team on KenPom, is arguably the weakest three-seed.
Michigan, of course, needs to figure out how they'll manage without Isaiah Livers. If they do—and they're certainly capable—then there's a foreseeable path to Juwan Howard's program making a Final Four run.
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LSU is gonna be trouble.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:12 PM ^
High ceiling...very low floor. This applies to many teams in Michigan's bracket. A cursory assessment would seem to say that this is a good draw for the good guys.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:20 PM ^
LSU has to win the tricky 8/9 game. Other than that, this feels like the easiest bracket.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:40 PM ^
LSU can score and they are athletic for sure. It's by no means an "easy" matchup, but there are more difficult 1/8 potential matchups in the round of 32.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:47 PM ^
Only if they hit 3s like crazy, but any team doing that would be trouble. Did you see them play today and yesterday? No defensive discipline at all. No transition D. Lazy passing. Horrible ball security. They're a free pile Maryland.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^
LSU defense is bad. Worse than Iowa and OSU. Michigan should be able to score against them. LSU is a middling team that Michigan has been able to handle all year long.
Except our boys couldn't throw the ball into the lake on saturday so I am counting on nothing
March 14th, 2021 at 11:08 PM ^
Every 8/9 team is tricky for #1 seeds, but I'd rather have a worse version of Iowa in LSU (top-5 offense, top-125 defense) than a team like UNC or Loyola, two teams that feel a bit underseeded. And for all of LSU's offensive potential this year, they struggled scoring against the better defenses they saw all year. Could they get hot and catch UM in a bad offensive slump? Sure. But it's just as likely they find a way to stymie their offense while abusing them on defense. And that's assuming LSU even beats St. Bonaventure, which is actually ranked higher than LSU on KenPom has a top-40 offense plus a top-20 defense.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:21 PM ^
I had to do a double-take, but I figure being 125th in the country on defense while playing in a relatively weaker SEC conference has to surely give Michigan a massive advantage over LSU if they were to play one another?
March 14th, 2021 at 11:44 PM ^
SEC sucks balls this year, so take their good performances with a grain of salt. Same with Alabama.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:55 PM ^
The LSU draw has really spooked Michigan fans. Huh. This is a team that is ranked 125th in AdjDE in the country! They give up 0.996 pts/possession. That's abysmal defense! Even without Livers Michigan should be able to win that game. Michigan could still lose that game, but I just don't understand the irrational panic about this draw.
Never sleep on the Bonnies. LSU is favored by 1.5 to 2 pts.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:00 PM ^
I like.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:07 PM ^
“Florida State’s size won’t bother Dickinson” and “Colorado hasn’t been the same team away from Boulder”. I read that on this blog and all I can think is:
“Michigan State’s offensive line is injured, low ranked, and a turnstile at left tackle.”
I’m sure I’m just losing perspective cuz man, I don’t know anymore.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^
Huh, I didn't realize the two sports teams' seasons had paralleled and that Michigan football was the Big Ten champ. Somehow I missed that entirely.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:12 PM ^
Well, they also said that Milton brought a new dynamic level to the ground game and flashed the potential to be a truly disruptive player on the run and in the air. So perhaps we should mind-wipe ourselves of 2020 football.
March 15th, 2021 at 10:20 AM ^
"Hmmmm, how can I turn this basketball thread into a thread whining about the football team? Oh, I know!"
8.6.1March 14th, 2021 at 10:12 PM ^
I don’t see how FSU’s size won’t bother Dickinson. They have a guy who is 7’1 as well and he’s pretty good. Their length is crazy all across the floor. Guards that are 6’8 and 230+ pounds. They also play a ton of players so fatigue won’t be an issue. What I see them doing is doubling down on Hunter all game long because they will have the size to do so. Our guards will be at a tremendous disadvantage size wise. I think this will be a very tough sweet 16 matchup should we make it there.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:21 PM ^
I agree they're very tall but they also have the 48th-best defense per KenPom and despite having a top-10 block rate they also give up almost 32% offensive rebounds. So it's a weird team that doesn't seem to defend the perimeter all that well and relies on their Ents to stop you from shooting inside. Of course, they also foul a ton so that could be an Achilies heel for a team playing UM's very competent FT shooting.
They're a top-15 team per KenPom and I can see it, but for perspective they lost to Georgia Tech by 5 despite shooting 57% from 3 (while GT shot 21%) because they gave the Yellow Jackets 14 more FTs. It feels like a team UM can plan for.
March 15th, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
Yeah, isn't FSU's calling card how they always have absurd height and length?
March 14th, 2021 at 10:23 PM ^
I remember taking a flier on Terrance Williams in thread picking someone to surprise in the tournament. I sure hope it comes to fruition. All we can ask for is solid D and don't make it 4 on 5 when we have the ball.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:27 PM ^
I can't see us having a real chance to win it all without Livers (barring some very helpful upsets ahead of us, of course), but we had a last second shot to beat a second seed in the tournament without him. We're certainly able to *play* with anyone (except, maybe, the other No.1 seeds) without him. Dickinson has to be able to get down low, instead of being repeatedly pushed 10 feet away from the basket. If he can get there, and either score or force double-teams ... our offense should be fine.
I also find it difficult to see how this team wins it all without Livers. He is the leader and just does so many things for this team. With that said, Vegas Insider has the odds to win it all (updated yesterday) as:
- Gonzaga 2/1
- Baylor 6/1
- Michigan 6/1
- Illinois 7/1
March 14th, 2021 at 10:48 PM ^
Damn if I didnt know we were going to be playing FSU.
March 13th, 2021 at 11:59 PM ^
No high ceiling low floor teams. FSU and Bama at their best can really get after it. Give me shit ass Creighton (was saying this when they were 12th) all day everyday.
March 15th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
FSU's got to make it that far first. Hamilton's tournament record isn't great.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:20 PM ^
It's gonna be an interesting week of anticipation.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:24 PM ^
Kind of off the wall but...
There is a significant chance that, in order to get to the Final Four, Baylor will have to beat:
Wisconsin, Purdue, & Ohio State
And if Michigan and Gonzaga had been placed in each other's #1 slots, there is a significant chance that Baylor, in order to win the championship, would have had to beat (in order):
Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan/Iowa, & Illinois.
Entirely possible it's Wisconsin, Purdue, & Ohio State, and tack on IL to make it to the final. That's a sick gauntlet for 'any' team.
Anyone realize the 2,3,4 seeds in Zags region are all teams they’ve already played? Iowa, Kansas, and Virginia. Nothing like having them play some different power 5 teams. Committee took it easy on them
March 15th, 2021 at 10:03 AM ^
Plus, KU and Virginia both had to pull out of their conference tournaments bc of covid. Could be shorthanded.
March 15th, 2021 at 12:03 AM ^
Michigan is hurt and anything could happen, but this is a pretty soft draw after years and years of being stuck in the "bracket of death." Every year it seems UM fans are scared of whatever "long and athletic" team is in their bracket — when really it's the veteran, guard-based teams that seem to be the most dangerous. I'm just glad that KU, the Oklahomas, Nova and UVA aren't in this quadrant.
Georgetown interests me. Seemed like just another year of them being irrelevant and then they go on a crazy tear. What a weird team.
Ok, what's everyone got in terms of ranking the 4 brackets (W, E, S, MW) easiest to hardest?
This bracket is not Madness. False advertising from the NCAA and its corporate sponsor, Capital One.
I have some interest in a play-in game. Let's go Bruins!
March 15th, 2021 at 11:08 AM ^
Not thrilled about the possibilities of facing LSU or Bama, but there is no path to the title game that doesn't feature some obstacles. This isn't a cakewalk and it's not a killer.
The problem, of course, is that one of our best players won't be playing. That, to me, makes us a serious upset liability.
When the "how deep do you have to go for the season to be a success" Qs were asked in recent weeks, I was on record with high expectations. Final Four. Part of the reason is that it's really hard to win, and you aren't guaranteed to get a #1 seed or good breaks. Bad luck happens, so when you have the team, go as far as you can.
Well, bad luck happened. It's quite possible that the team gels without Livers, finds the right pattern... and still finds itself the lesser squad in the SS or EE.
But, like in many Beilein years, we have a puncher's chance, and some of the below-the-belt matchup problems I worry about aren't things we'll face before the Final Four.
Anything can happen. Let's start by beating the 16.
I'm more worried about FSU than LSU and Bama. LSU defense sucks. Bama is a solid team but not exactly #2 seed material IMO. FSU has length at every position and is athletic. They're the type of team that would give Michigan trouble on defense.
All in all, I liked the draw for Michigan. Much more favorable than Illini IMO
This is a reasonable bracket for optimism. Texas got the worst draw @ 3, but even that is doable.
My opinion, if Livers doesn't miraculously play, no way we make it out of the second weekend. With Livers we would have been big favorites.
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