It was Joey Baker O'Clock tonight [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan 90, Toledo 80 Comment Count

Alex.Drain March 14th, 2023 at 11:09 PM

Whenever a major conference team with NCAA Tournament ambitions winds up in the NIT, the first question one asks about their trajectory in the upcoming games is "how much do they care?". Do they want to be here? Or are they going through the motions? That was the question in my head as I got ready for Michigan's opening round NIT game against Toledo tonight, especially upon hearing the news that Jett Howard would miss the game with an ankle injury.

In the first half, the answer looked ambiguous, perhaps leading towards "yeah, they're mailing it in". Michigan allowed gobs of points out of the gate amid a sloppy start and ultimately trailed at the break. But the first few minutes of the second half answered the question, swinging the pendulum to "no, they want to win" as hot Michigan shooters powered the squad to an 11-0 run to start the half and from that point forward, they never relinquished the lead. It may not have been the greatest outing wire-to-wire, but good shooting and ball movement on offense mixed with solid defense after the disastrous opening resulted in a 90-80 Michigan victory over the Toledo Rockets at Crisler Center. 

Toledo came in marketed as an excellent offensive team and we saw plenty of that in the opening ten minutes of basketball. RayJ Dennis knocked down a shot on the first Toledo possession, then they forced a turnover on Will Tschetter and Ra'heim Morris finished it off with a fast-break layup. Right after that, Joey Baker turned it over and Moss converted on a nearly identical fast-break score. After Michigan finally got their first score, JT Shumate went right down the floor and hit a three. 9-2 Toledo, just 93 seconds into the game with a 4/4 shooting clip from the field. 

[Campredon]

Michigan picked up the scoring on their end of the floor, Joey Baker making a layup to begin what was a strong evening for the transfer wing playing in his (possible) final game in front of the Crisler Center crowd. Will Tschetter and Dug McDaniel threes drew Michigan within one and a few minutes later they tied it on a Baker layup, 18-18. The blistering pace of scoring didn't slow down, with the Rockets responding to the tied score by pouring in nine straight points in just over two minutes. When Dennis turned McDaniel over and scored on the ensuing layup, the Rockets took a 27-18 lead and amazingly, there were still over 11 minutes to play in the first half. At that juncture, Michigan was on pace to surrender ~120 points in regulation. 

You had to imagine things would slow down for the Rockets on offense, and they did. Michigan began to settle in defensively, something that began with a block by Terrance Williams II on a Setric Milner Jr. three pointer, which set up a fast-break layup for Hunter Dickinson. Michigan held Toledo without a field goal for roughly four minutes, a period during which they clawed back to a tie, as the pace of scoring slowed down on both sides. Kobe Bufkin's personal 7-0 run, a pair of layups and a triple, were his first points of the game and they drew Michigan to a 29-29 tie. The Wolverines finally took the lead on a Dickinson dunk, 35-33, and it seemed like the team would go into the break with a lead after Baker connected on a triple, but a Shumate answer just before the buzzer gave UT a 42-40 going into halftime. 

[Campredon]

At the break, it felt as though Michigan had begun to settle into the game after a dreadful opening. The team was shooting over 50% from the floor and exactly that mark from three, but having allowed Toledo to shoot 47% on FGs was an area for improvement. The team also needed more from Bufkin, whose aforementioned personal run were his only points of the half. Michigan, as the better team, were still favored, but the Rockets showed they weren't going away. The opening of the second frame would say a lot. 

Indeed it did, indicating that the home Wolverines wanted to take the game by the horns and make some noise in this National Invitation Tournament. The Maize & Blue came out of halftime red hot, Baker, McDaniel, and Bufkin hitting back-to-back-to-back threes on the first three Michigan possessions of the second half, with a pair of Toledo misses in between those possessions. Moss turned it over and Will Tschetter knocked down a mid-range jumper and just 2:14 into the second half, the Wolverines were ahead 51-42, almost before you could blink. 

From there, the game more or less seesawed around an equilibrium of Michigan by 5-10. Toledo occasionally strung some buckets and stops together to narrow the lead, cutting it to 61-57 and 66-63, but Michigan would respond and widen the lead back up. The score sat at 70-65 Wolverines at the under eight media timeout, eventually trimmed down to three on an AJ Edu layup, 72-69 with 6:23 to go. Michigan turned it over, and Dennis actually had a shot from three to tie it, but the shot was off the mark and that began the period where Michigan put the game away. Dickinson snagged the rebound, passed it up to Bufkin, who scored on the fast-break. They repeated the exact same formula on the next possession, Dennis miss, Dickinson rebound, fast-break layup, this time from Baker. 76-69 Michigan. 

[Campredon]

With just over five minutes to go, Toledo was in need of points. They didn't get it on their next try, though, as Dante Maddox Jr. missed a jumper and Bufkin extended the Michigan run with a silky fade-away. 78-69 Wolverines. Toledo finally snapped a three minute scoreless drought on a Setric Millner Jr. jumper, but despite forcing a couple Michigan misses, they couldn't cut into the lead... EJ Farmer missing the front-end of a one-and-one loomed large there. With 3:36 to go, Joey Baker canned yet another trey and Michigan now led by double digits, 81-71, and it was getting late for the Rockets. Millner would get an easy layup off a turnover forced by Toledo's press, but Juwan Howard promptly called timeout to instill a disciplined approach to his players. From that point on, Michigan wouldn't have much problem with the press, getting to the free throw line and making most of their attempts. UT's once-mighty offense had dried up, and time ran out on 'em. 90-80 Wolverines. 

As we suspected, this was a high-scoring affair, but when it was all said and done, the final metrics indicate a respectable defensive performance for Michigan. After getting the doors blown off early, they held Toledo to 53 points in the final 31 minutes and the Rockets' final shooting percentage was just over 40%, only 8/24 from three. Millner and Shumate led the way with 19 and 18 points for Toledo, but only four Rockets scored in double figures. As for Michigan, a scorching second half (15/23 from FG!!) powered them to 90 points, and 13/23 from three for the game ain't too shabby. Joey Baker, elevated into the starting lineup for Jett Howard, scored 21 points (5/7 from three). Bufkin came on line in the second half to lead the team with 23, while Dickinson added 19 and McDaniel had 16 (4/6 from three), with eight assists. Youssef Khayat and Jace Howard both saw the floor, although they combined for two total points. 

Michigan is now into the second round of the NIT and, as repeated a nauseating amount of times by the ESPN2 TV crew, are still perfect all-time at home in NIT games. The next round won't be at home, as 2nd-seeded Vanderbilt knocked off Yale tonight, so the Wolverines will be headed down to Nashville to take on the Commodores. That game will be either Saturday or Sunday at a time TBD. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Comments

DennisFranklinDaMan

March 14th, 2023 at 11:22 PM ^

That was fun. Don't know how long it'll last -- I'm already bracing for the withering criticism they're going to take here whenever they do lose -- but I'll enjoy the ride. Any tournament win is cool.

Good job, boys. Nashville, here we come!

RAH

March 15th, 2023 at 12:27 AM ^

Except, of course, when they were turning it over, I was pleasantly surprised at how well the offense flowed. They moved the ball, found the open man, didn't have many "I think it's about time I throw up a shot" moments (maybe none!), got it to Hunter with proper timing as he was going to the basket, and generally looked like they knew what they were doing. (I know: Other than that, how was the play Ms. Lincoln?)

Of course, it was easier since they were playing a team with no defense. But it was encouraging to see that they do know what they should do and actually want to do the right things. Apparently, it has just been hard for them to see those opportunities playing against good defenses. (Or at least to see them in time to make the play.)

 

xgojim

March 15th, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^

The next time M's opponents take 18 more shots (73 vs 55), the result will be different than this game.  The number of times the team brought the ball down the court only to turn it over was frustrating to say the least.  That M's guys could shoot the heck out of the net last night made it easy to forget that they had the ball near the net 25% fewer times.  Come on guys!  Beat the stinkin' Commodores!

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^

This is a good point, but I don't think the shots were of equal quality.  Toledo sold out with pressure and traps to force turnovers but it left a lot of guys wide open.  Whereas Michigan played pretty solid defense and made their shots more difficult.

Still, we were probably a bit lucky to have outshot the second best 3 point shooting team in the country 57% to 33%.  Dug isn't gonna have many 4-6 or better games.  But we'll take it!

bronxblue

March 14th, 2023 at 11:28 PM ^

Good game and a nice bounceback after some rough losses.  I said this early in the game thread but this is a Rorshach test for the team especially without Jett and it went about how I expected.  Baker is a solid enough offensive player and a competent defender that he helps keep the offense moving while enabling guys like Dug, Kobe, and Dickinson to play their roles.  Vandy will be tough but that's going to be a good game to see if UM can piece together a solid road performance.

DennisFranklinDaMan

March 14th, 2023 at 11:58 PM ^

I'm honestly not smart enough to understand why we struggle so much when Jett is in. Yes, his defense is problematic, but is it *really* that much worse than Baker's? And yes, once or twice a game he'll clog up the offense by deciding he's going to shoot no matter what, which leaves everyone else standing around while he dribbles and spins and looks for an angle, before hoisting up an off-balance shot, but ... that's really only one or two possessions a game, and he's obviously an excellent outside shooter.

So it's more than possible that the fact that Michigan, of late, has won games he hasn't played in might just be a coincidence. But it's also a phenomenon that's increasingly difficult to ignore, and I wonder what the coaching staff makes of it.

michgoblue

March 15th, 2023 at 12:38 AM ^

While there are many more knowledgeable than I am, I have coached basketball at the middle and high school lever for over a decade. My observations are that Jett’s impact on the team goes beyond the 1-2 plays a game you referenced. The guy flat out gives zero intensity on defense. Putting aside the “feelings-ball” analysis that the others feed off of this and themselves play with less intensity, it also makes other players have to overcorrect, venture a bit further outside of their zone, etc to make up for Jett’s complete lack of effort on D. It also throws off switches, traps, etc. Likewise on offense, oftentimes when Jett doesn’t have the ball, he does not partake in the offense. Rewatch any game and there are numerous plays in which Jett stands in the corner waiting for a pass, but does nothing to get open such as cutting, setting a screen, etc. And finally, there is rebounding. He puts in next to zero effort and doesn’t even attempt to rebound, especially on the defensive end. Basketball is more than the sum of the individual players. Jett’s somewhat lacking defensive, rebounding, and even off-ball offensive effort impact the entire team. 

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2023 at 1:03 AM ^

To the point made above, the vast majority of a basketball game is played off the ball on offense and defense where most people don't notice what a guy is doing and Jett is very often not in the right spots which causes breakdowns that most people don't notice.

What is quantifiable is rebounding.  Baker's 14.2% DREB rate is good for a small forward and more than 50% better than Jett's 8.7%.  That's highly indicative of the differences in effort and execution.  Jett is clearly a better athlete but at the same position, he's a significantly worse rebounder because well, you saw it against Rutgers, he just wants to get back to where he can jack up more shots and that's a killer to the team.

All this being said, I wouldn't say we "struggle so much" with Jett.  We covered at Illinois and IU with Jett, it just didn't feel great because we lost in heartbreaking fashion.  We've won some impressive games with him (Pitt, Maryland, NW, etc).  The team is probably only 2-3 points per game better without him but that's the difference between being 23-10 vs 18-15.  Small differences go a long way.

But it feels so much worse because we would expect a guy that is supposedly a lottery pick to actually help the team but he in fact hurts the team so it's a huge difference from expectations.

bronxblue

March 15th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^

A stat that sort of blows me away is that 6-8" Jett Howard has 82 total rebounds in 922 minutes played this year, while 5' 10" Dug McDaniel has 99 rebounds in 1005 minutes.  I understand that Jett was out for a couple of games but given his size Howard absolutely shouldn't be putting up PG-level rebounding levels out there.  I'm not even sure if that's due to effort as much as just not being strong/aware enough to get in position.  

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^

He's plenty strong enough.  Kobe is a twig and he mixes it up with a significantly better rebound rate than Jett.  Agree there is no excuse for Jett's rebounding numbers to be so low and it's entirely effort / gaf. I mean, you've watched him simply jog back up the court instead of boxing people out. 

Not really sure what you mean by awareness, but sure, he also lacks focus.  Like when the ball goes up, you box out.  You learn that in middle school.  If he's just losing concentration when opponents shoot, ok, but I feel like still effort.  Mental effort to pay attention. 

njvictor

March 15th, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^

If you were to watch Jett on defense for an entire game, you’d probably see 4-6 plays on defense where the opponent scoring is entirely on him due to either completely missing a defensive rotation, not playing help defense, not hustling in transition, or not rebounding. He’s a liability. And from the games I’ve watched of Baker at the 3 spot, he’s not a great defender but those lapses and by large aren’t there

I also think that with the emergence of Dug and Kobe half way through the season, Jett is just not a good fit with this roster make up. Dug, Kobe, and Hunter provide most of the scoring we need and the 3 position mostly needs to just fill their role defending, being a glue guy, and hitting the occasional open shot. That is Baker

bronxblue

March 15th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^

The thing with Howard is that a lot of times his mistakes defensively one-on-one lead to breakdowns elsewhere.  4-5 times a game it felt like a guy would just blow past him, that would lead to a breakdown on the defense where guys try to help and ends with someone hitting an open shot.  For example, I remember at least a couple of times against Illinois and IU where the guy Howard was guarding would just run by him, Bufkin or Williams would come down to help and the ball would swing around to the open shooter.  The guy who hit the shot wasn't Howard's guy but it was because of that breakdown.  That happened at times with Baker as well but he's a 5th-year guy so he sorta knows where to stand and has some of that "old man" game where he's strong enough to bump around guys and at least make them slow down.  

That doesn't mean Howard can't get there; my guess is Baker was awful as a true freshman at Duke defensively.  But Howard seemingly never got much better as a defender as the season progressed; I know the podcast said he did but I swear it was in spurts at most.  And then he became a really perimeter-oriented offensive player, which showed me he didn't trust his feet and handle enough to go toward the rim and likely keyed in offensive guys that he didn't have the quickness to stick with them.

In a perfect world Howard would take the offseason to get stronger, come back next year fully engaged and physical on both ends, and be a star.

bronxblue

March 15th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^

I think he's legitimately hurt and probably tried to give it a go to end the year when, as it turned out, UM probably would have been better served had they rolled with Baker and co. and give Jett a chance to possibly recover in time for a tourney bid.  Not that it was going to make a huge difference for the team's championship aspirations but a limited Jett who was already a defensive liability at times and a limited offensive player (he shot something like 30 3s and 10 2s over the past half-dozen games he played) and at least with Baker you've got a guy who can move better.

bronxblue

March 15th, 2023 at 12:24 AM ^

Yeah Baker's ceiling defensively is maybe competent but I thought the defense this game got better as it progressed and he was part of it.  And yeah, offensively the ball doesn't stick to him like it does Jett and for a guy everyone pegged as just a shooter he does drive to the rim a bit and gets to spots on the floor where he needs to be.

Again, I have no ill will toward Jett but as a true freshman he's not as good as Baker in the role this team needed.

blueheron

March 15th, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^

This is as good a place as any to drop this comment: I really wonder what's gone on between everyone's ears (Juwan, his staff, starters, reserves) regarding Jett this year. What overall effect has he had on the team?

To degrees I wonder about Dickinson and Williams, too.

ST3

March 15th, 2023 at 1:09 AM ^

If my choices are turnstile, competent or shutdown defender, I’ll go with competent. He’s got good length and he hustles. He generally knows where to be and tries to fight through screens. He’s not an automatic green light for the opposition. No, you don’t want him matched up against the opponent’s best player, but that’s true for most of our players. 

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2023 at 1:17 AM ^

Speaking of matched up against the opponents best player, Kobe forced Dennis into 5/19 shooting!  I guess that's how you go +17 in 39 minutes which still seems impossible.  Michigan was -7 in the one minute he was on the bench?

I really, really hope he comes back.  All the NIL money to him!  All of it!

Blue Vet

March 15th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^

Sports always has a recency bias, buttressed by sports commentators and blogs.

Did you lose a player early in the year? It gets mentioned but then ignored, as if the team is at full strength. Did the team lose? It must be someone's fault. 

But consider the players Michigan figured to have this year: Houstan, Diabate, Shannon, Collins, Llewellyn. That might have been the four starting with Dickinson.

robpollard

March 15th, 2023 at 8:54 AM ^

Yes, the obvious reason is that Toledo is a small team, so going with two bigs at the same time was really not a long-term option. With just one big, Hunter really struggled on D, covering Shumate out at the three-point line, but that was outweighed by Hunter being able to do very well on offense.

That said, Reed could’ve taken five minutes from Williams. In theory, Williams should be able to guard smaller players better, but in practice that wasn’t the case; he got beat off the dribble going to the rim, numerous times. Reed can at least block a shot sometimes if he gets beat.

Mich1993

March 15th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^

It thought this was one of Williams better games.  Solid on both ends and came away +10 in 23 minutes played.  I'll take it.  

You could give him the 5 minutes Youssef played, but it's good to get him minutes even if he's not ready.  I assume he'll be playing at least bench minutes next year.

robpollard

March 15th, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^

I know you’re joking, but I was glad he got some first half run. This tourney should be about winning, of course, but it is also nice to give the young player some run and see what they can do.
Khayat showed he still not ready, but it was worth giving him an opportunity, and at least now you have something on film, which hopefully can motivate him during the offseason.

TrueBlue2003

March 15th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^

They see what the young players can do in practice every day.  It's likely that his minutes were a reward for playing hard in practice the way Tschetter's minutes supposedly are.  And I'm fine with that.  But make no mistake, the coaches know what the young guys can do.  And that's why he hasn't played much to this point.

PhilipVU94

March 15th, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^

With degrees from VU and U-M I would liked for this next matchup to have happened in Vegas, but it'll be fun regardless and certainly will be more motivating for us.

You might have heard the story in a nutshell on Selection Sunday: basically Vanderbilt is an affront (or at least a natural experiment) to all the predictive metrics. Michigan is probably favored, no? I'd chalk it up to good luck for VU, winning close games, except the time trend is so clear and so typical of Stackhouse. 

Jerry kept a key player (Lawrence) out of the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa to make a point. The team got drilled by 57 points, which probably destroyed our final NET by 15 places or something. But then, we finished 10-2 with a bunch of close and fairly impressive wins (esp. Kentucky twice, once at Rupp). NET isn't supposed to be a primary factor in selection, but it's pretty clearly disqualifying below a certain point. We had the résumé of a 10-seed a decade ago -- finish strong, win big games on the road and neutral sites.

Anyway this is relevant still because 

  • If you think recency matters for some teams more than others, Vanderbilt might be pretty good.
  • If you think winning close games relects something about a team besides unsustainable luck, ditto.
  • If you think it's all down to luck and we're just seeing patterns in random data because it suits us, Michigan should be heavy favorites. 

https://xkcd.com/904/