Michigan 66, North Carolina State 59
via Seth
Michigan has just five consequential dates on the non-conference schedule (barring a significant upset loss): Xavier, UConn, Texas, North Carolina State, and SMU. With tonight’s win on the road – the first true road contest for the Wolverines this season – Michiganpulls its record to 2-2 in those big non-conference games with a chance to make that a winning record at SMU.
The Wolfpack have largely disappointed so far this season (currently ranked 63 in Kenpom, down from 41 pre-season), but most of their short rotation of players was present for the NCAA tournament upset over one-seed Villanova and Sweet 16 run last season. Beating that without Walton for a half is more than something.
It’s apparent that the team has responded well from its two early losses; the Wolverines controlled the game against Texas and built on that performance with what could theoretically wind up as one of its best road wins of the season in Raleigh against NCSU.
Both teams struggled to find their shot from the field early on; Derrick Walton was important in keeping Michigan’s offense afloat as they settled in. After about the ten-minute mark of the first half, U-M went on to outscore NCSU by a 27-15 margin – 3 three-pointers by Duncan Robinson in quick succession and a few nifty Moritz Wagner buckets keyed one of Michigan’s best offensive stretches of the early season.
An injury to Walton thankfully doesn’t appear to be too serious but Michigan certainly missed his presence in the second half. The Wolverines extended that lead to 15 with 14 minutes remaining, but NCSU was able to finally exert its size advantage inside and chip away at the lead. Nine points from Caleb Martin helped cut that to 50-46 at the under-eight timeout.
Much like in the Texas game, two assists from Caris LeVert on consecutive possessions to set up threes from Robinson and Zak Irvin helped put the lead into a much more comfortable margin. Again, it was LeVert making plays with the ball in his hands down the stretch to preserve a Michigan win.
* * *
In Michigan’s games against quality opponents, tonight’s win over NCSU stands out on the defensive side of the floor. In its first three contests against Xavier, UConn, and Texas, the Wolverines ceded 1.25, 1.14, and 1.16 points per possession. Tonight, it was just 0.96. Part – well, most – of that was due to frigid shooting from the Wolfpack (15-41 on two-point field goal attempts and 4-17 on threes); the only thing keeping them in the game was 16-18 free throw shooting from NCSU players other than BeeJay Anya.
Michigan didn’t turn in one of its best offensive performances. Perhaps if Derrick Walton hadn’t have gotten injured it would have been, but a characteristically “Beilein” offensive profile carried M to a victory anyways. The Wolverines virtually ignored the offensive glass, avoided turning the ball over, and won the game with their field goal percentage.
This game was unique in that Michigan didn’t exactly shoot the ball well from three (7-20 as a team), but absolutely eviscerated the NCSU defense for easy two-point looks, mostly around the rim, that led to 61% shooting from two. After the Xavier and UConn games, it seemed as if Michigan was far from asserting its identity in games; it turns out that significantly easier (but still fairly decent) competition was all that U-M needed.
Caris LeVert is playing at an All-American level right now: a combined 34 points + rebounds + assists is a testament to his all around ability. It wasn’t a great scoring night for Caris but he made plenty of impact elsewhere – his vision (as well as Zak Irvin’s) made up for the loss for Michigan’s starting point guard and LeVert’s activity on the defensive glass was a nice adaptation in the wake of Walton’s injury. Late free throws helped inflate his point total, but the performance hit expectations for this season.
Irivin's cold shooting continued (he was 1/7 from three and 2/5 from two), as he, LeVert, Wagner and MAAR combined to go just 2-13 from three. Robinson salvaged the night by hitting five of seven. He is now 20-33 (61%) from three on the season and well on his way to that insane promise of 50%.
As for North Carolina State’s personnel, Caleb Martin and Cat Barber combined for 35 of NC State’s 59 points. Two of their three big men – Abdul-Malik Abu and Lennard Freeman – combined for just two points. Credit should go to Michigan’s inexperienced bigs for erasing bigger, older counterparts in a matchup that didn’t look great on paper.
It’s clear that Spike’s not completely healthy after two off-season surgeries. He was thrown into the mix when Walton went down against NCSU, but might not be a part of the three guard rotation moving forward. Right now, Michigan’s rotation tentatively looks like:
- GUARDS: Walton, LeVert (Abdur-Rahkman as #3)
- WINGS: 2 of 3 among Irvin, Robinson, Dawkins
- BIGS: Doyle, then Wagner, then Wilson (perhaps only if needed?)
Ricky Doyle was perhaps better defensively than Wagner tonight – Moritz may be the more appealing long-term option and showed some more flashes (including a quick spin from the high-post into a one-dribble dunk that just roasted BeeJay Anya).
Even with a core player out, Michigan was able to escape Raleigh with a win. LeVert stepped up in the second half and Irvin, who still hasn’t been shooting well, managed to create some offense for others regardless. They're a long way from a deep tournament run right now, but they can put away a bubble team on a bad shooting night on the road.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:16 AM ^
good stuff, and a good win
December 2nd, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^
Does not jibe with the implication (not sure if intended) that Irvin is battling Dawkins/Chatman for minutes. Irvin is not under any threat of playing time.
Doyle however is losing time to Wagner and his status as the top center is clearly under threat. Wagner has taken almost all of the backup C minutes and is now eating at Doyle's role too. This would be a great sign if Doyle was playing well, but he's simply not, though last night was progress. Wagner got more minutes last night and from the way things have gone so far this year, that could be a permanent change.
...
MAAR's role was really marginal until Walton got hurt. If Spike and Walton are both healthy, I'm not sure there's a spot for him in the guard rotation, but I would submit that if he is playing defense at the level he can, he's a better fit in the rotation than Dawkins and Robinson.
Michigan has an overabundance of offensive firepower, to the point that it's a detriment. It's important that players be decisive about what is and isn't a good shot, what shots to look for, etc. They can only do that if everyone knows their role and that's hard to do if everyone can score. They need a Mike Griffin, a Michael Curry, a Ben Wallace, a David Merrit, a Jordan Morgan -- a guy who doesn't need the ball or shots but is willing to set screens, pass it around, sit in the corner, and do the gritty work on the defensive end. I had hopes that Chatman would embrace such a role, but right now, MAAR is the closest thing they have.
Zero turnovers in over 20 minutes from MAAR was perhaps the stat of the night for this team. If MAAR can make an impact on defese without hurting the team on offense, that portends very well for the rest of the season.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:39 PM ^
- GUARDS: LeVert, Walton (if healthy), Spike (if healthy) [MAAR #4]
- WINGS: Irvin, Robinson/Dawkins [Chatman #4]
- BIGS: Doyle/Wagner [Wilson #3]
where "/" denotes a significant battle for playing time
December 2nd, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^
Those are clearly our top 8 players. Donnal clearly will never be able to play meaningful minutes. Wilson and Chatman are still too raw and/or untalented to merit significant time in the rotation. Thank god for Mo.
December 2nd, 2015 at 1:57 PM ^
I rewinded the game when Doyle had the open looks around the rim when he bobbled them away and you could see Beilien put his hands to his head probably thinking just catch the ball first dude! His hands weren't this bad last year.
December 2nd, 2015 at 2:55 PM ^
BUT think about where Morgan and Horford were coming of their RS Freshman years. Those guys got A LOT better and Donnal could too.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:30 AM ^
Doyle's inability to catch the ball tonight was stunning. I thought his hands were iffy, but tonight they were just awful. He dropped two excellent post passes that would have been layups and two more loose balls that were right in his hands. I've never seen a basketball player with stone hands like that before.
I do' think you're starting to see the offense flow more. Michigan is still probably at best a "right side of the bubble" team rather than a title contender in the conference, but I think they're going to be good once they work out the rotation. Their depth and flexibility will help in those tough mid season slug fests.
Finally, I think you downplayed Rahk's contributions a little tonight. He played a lot of pure PG tonight and totally shut down "Cat" on NCST. His offense is clunky still, but his defense and hustle are going to be an asset this season more than I thought. I also think that even with Wagner and Robinson outplaying their counterparts in the starting lineup, I like having them come off the bench. You get the hustle from Wagner and the shooting from Robinson to light a fire when they come in the game.
December 2nd, 2015 at 5:13 AM ^
Funny you should mention "stone hands." I've been calling Doyle "brick hands" all season. Every once in awhile he'll hold onto to a pass near the rim, but it's a 50-50 deal. I stopped getting upset about those hands 2 or 3 games ago.
Go Blue!!!
December 2nd, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^
I actually think their depth is hurting them a little bit this early in the year. The rotation has been so uncertain and inconsistent.
If you lopped off the bottom 3 fringe rotation guys would this team have done better or worse?
I actually think Walton's short-term injury could be very beneficial to the team for stabilizing roles and rotations a bit. Caris gets to focus on playmaking. MAAR gets a tryout in a significant role. And there's more minutes available to sort out the Robinson/Dawkins competition.
December 2nd, 2015 at 1:36 PM ^
it really limits him on both offense and in rebounding. Hard to see him ever being an above average center in the league until the hands improve.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:34 AM ^
Hard to miss this, unless you are clueless to begin with:
MAAR: +27
Walton: -6
Albrecht: -9
December 2nd, 2015 at 2:40 AM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
MOAR MAAR!
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:56 AM ^
I was surprised that Albrecht played as well as he did. Yesterday, Mlive reported that Spike was rehabbing in lieu of practicing.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2015/11/though_still_availabl…
December 2nd, 2015 at 8:41 AM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:42 AM ^
I just want to share my experience today.
I live in NC and was very much looking forward to this game. I had it on my calendar and had my whole day planned out. I'd go to work, leave at 4:30 as usually (I rarely ever stay past 5), run a few errands, then make the hour long drive to Raliegh from where I work. This did not happen. My boss decided today was the day I needed to be trained on a certain procedure and a series of unfortunate events, which included malfuctioning equipment, a first degree burn, water soaked pants and high pressured water to the face resulted in the training taking longer than expected. So at 6:45, after I've given up all hope of going to this game, I'm suddenly told that I'm done and can leave. As I'm walking out, I just say "screw it, I'm not letting all this effort, planning and ticket money go to waste". I'm ashamed to say I drove a little wrecklessly (ok a lot, like 100+ mph, sorry), but I made it in time for the second half. Guys, I don't know if a half of basketball has ever meant more to me (maybe the 2nd half of the Kansas game), but all my frustration and anger went away as I was finally able to watch Michigan basketball live again. The win was just icing on top of the cake. This day went from shitty to pretty great in just 20 minutes and I'm glad I made that decision to go.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^
Great story! Dedication Homes.
Go Blue and Be Safe!
December 2nd, 2015 at 1:14 AM ^
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December 2nd, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:56 AM ^
Nice to see your work here again, Alex. Very excited for the remainder of the basketball season.
December 2nd, 2015 at 1:41 AM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 8:39 AM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
Here's my theory on why Donnal and Chatman were starting those first few games. I think the coaches knew they were the most at risk for falling to the back of the rotation but wanted to give them their best shot to earn a bigger role. By starting them and giving them minutes with the primary rotation along with more overall PT they'd get their best shot. This was also mostly against inferior competition. It may also have been to motivate Doyle and was easy to do when Irvin was still working his way back.
Once it became apparent that they still weren't ready for a major role, the coaches shortened the bench and gave the PT to those who deserved it. I think their rotation makes a lot of sense right now and the flexibility it gives them is great. Plus, Donnal/Chatman are incredibly talented as compared to a typical 11th/12th man on the bench. If someone gets hurt or in foul trouble, they can play a few minutes without being a total liability. This isn't like playing Blake McLimans or Sean Longeran for major minutes.
December 2nd, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
One other possible factor is showing the fans what you've got. If Chatman and Donnal hadn't played, we fans wouldn't know what we're missing. And if we fans aren't happy, we can cause a lot of trouble. If you're Jim Harbaugh, you can get away with withholding information from the public, but not if you're Brady Hoke, for example. Maybe I'm giving Beilein too much credit, but it seems like a smart move to give everyone a shot in public before settling on the rotation.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
I think they also wanted to see if one of them was going to embrace playing tougher more defensive-oriented basketball "with the lights on."
It didn't look like it. Both will continue to get a shot to show their stuff, but their position in the pecking order is obviously different now.
December 2nd, 2015 at 2:34 AM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 5:21 AM ^
I agree, regarding Dawkins. He was the player I was most looking forward to seeing this season but other than 1 or 2 highlights per game, he has played very passively. And he was pretty much a No-Show last night. I know he's our best athlete but if he can't produce then he shouldn't be starting.
Go Blue!!!
December 2nd, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
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December 2nd, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
I think it's too early to discount Dawkins. He proved his worth last year, and I'm confident he'll be at least as good this year. I like the current rotation -- with Robinson, Wagner, and MAAR coming off the bench, we can really take control of games like we did last night. And we've got the depth to absorb injuries, again as demonstrated last night.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
The question is: how much of a liability is MAAR offensively? In this lineup he doesn't get to handle the ball (he is too inefficient and turnover prone relative to Walton/LeVert/Irvin) so he's a guy on the wing who has to hit open 3s and that's not at all his strong suit. He's far better off on offense as a secondary offensive facilitator beside Caris (i.e., a guard) than as a wing.
Dawkins and Doyle are the biggest disappointments of the year so far, as it doesn't appear they have improved their weaknesses from last season.
Wagner and Levert (who is playing like an absolute star) are the biggest positives IMO.
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:24 PM ^
Yeah, MAAR should play whenever Caris is on the bench, he's much better with the ball in his hands going towards the hoop. When he's spotting up for a three and gets the ball I'm always cringing.
December 2nd, 2015 at 2:34 AM ^
Great writing and post, Alex. Thank you. Any insights to how we could avoid fading with leads in 2H? ("NCSU was able to finally exert its size advantage inside and chip away at the lead") Seems this is becoming a pattern that teams adjust when we slow the game down and go inside and kill us. Appreciate your thoughts.
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:25 PM ^
That is not what happenned. The refs decided to call 9 fouls on Michigan in about 3 minutes and NCSU got a bunch of free points.
December 2nd, 2015 at 5:31 AM ^
Am I the only one frustrated with this new system of calling every ticky tack foul? Sheesh. And I'm not just talking about the ones called against Michigan. There was a series of plays in the first half where the refs called 3 or 4 consecutive calls against NC State. And of couse the refs returned the favor and did the same to Michigan a few times in the second half.
The announcers mentioned that they liked the new policy and that this is how the game was played 20 or 30 years ago. Really? So increasing the number of stoppages in play is better for the game? I could be wrong but it seemed to me that 20 years ago there was a much better flow to the game and a lot fewer foul calls.
It got so frustrating in the second half that I turned down the volume and semi-watched the game, always waiting for the next whistle. I really would rather watch a free-flowing basketball game than a freakin' free-throw procession. Sheesh.
Go Blue!!!
December 2nd, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^
What concerns me is that teams that historically play aggressive, physical defense ("make your fouls count") will continue to do so and accumulate as many fouls as in previous years. They have learned to live with that as the cost of doing business. On the other hand, teams that are coached to play a cleaner, position/anticipation-based defense (close off passing lanes, draw charges) are going to be called for more ticky-tack soft fouls. Coaches are not going to change how they coach defense. They have a system and cannot afford to change how they coach based on "points of emphasis".
December 2nd, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
The officiating was a bad joke. So many phantom calls on Michigan in the 2nd half. Michigan stopped playing defense at the end for fear of getting called, and they still called fouls. It could have spoiled the game if Caris hadn't hit his free throws.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 8:42 AM ^
Robinson has really impressed me. He definitely doesn't have Stauskas' overall game, but his shot is buttery smooth, and he showed, especially with his height, that he can hit an off the dribble 15-19 footer. Wagner is raw, but the kid impresses me. I love his post game, as he shows some nice up and under moves, and is a good hustle guy. Levert is Levert. Hopefully Irvin will find his groove once healthy, because he is really rusty right now.
December 2nd, 2015 at 10:48 AM ^
We don't need him to be POY Sophomore Stauskas... but maybe he can be freshman "Kill Florida" Stauskas?
December 2nd, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
Robinson came in and hit three triples. He was by far our leading scorer until the last minute when LaVert hit 6 free throws to pass him by one point. It would hard to exaggerate his impact. He played some pretty good defense also last night.
December 2nd, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
As someone who moved to Raleigh a few years ago, it was great to have Michigan actually make it to this area for once. I was glad to finally be able to go to a game!
Go Blue!
December 2nd, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^
Love Wagner's attitude and his expanding role.
Don't turn around, oh oh oh...
December 2nd, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^
How did Spike look? I missed the game...
Also, any word on Walton's injury?
December 2nd, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
before LeVert took over at guard. He had a nice assist right out of the gate. Spike apparently is not even practicing while recovering from surgery. It looks like he won't be near his old self until mid January.
I was expecting more out of MAAR and especially Dawkins this season, but the season is young and both seem very coachable.
December 2nd, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
MAAR and LeVert shared point guard duties quite effectively, with Walton out. "The Cat" was MIA after Walton went down.
MAAR: +27
Robinson: +18
LeVert: +2
Walton: -6
Albrecht: -9
December 2nd, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
would probably be well suited to coming off the bench in the rotation and providing instant offense for the team. It would also be great to see him paired with Duncan Robinson and MAAR because they would bring complimentary skill sets onto the floor off of the bench. MAAR's defense and passing would pair well with Dawkins high flying transition game and their abilities to slash to the rim would open up room for Robinson's ridiculous shooting. Seriously 61%(!). I can't even process that adequately. Lol. :)
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